Not Trying Too Hard

Posted on May 15, 2013 by Steve

Kentucky-born author Bobbie Ann Mason once wrote “Deep down Kentuckians are always afraid that people are going to be surprised to see them with shoes on.”

Perhaps that explains the preoccupation with women’s fashion and those ridiculous hats at the Kentucky Derby. No doubt most everyone at Churchill gets dressed up and tries to look nice for the big race, but it seems a bit much, too forced, and lot like phony posing. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for dressing up and looking nice, especially at the race track. But the Derby is less about being fashionable at the track than participating in a tiresome masquerade.

Glass

It’s either a tacky knock-off of English high-society at Royal Ascot or a misguided homage to a romanticized notion of antebellum southern culture. Churchill Downs isn’t five miles from Windsor Castle and Louisville sure ain’t the Old South; it’s a blighted, post-industrial port town; kinda like Baltimore. No disrespect intended; I love Louisville and I love Baltimore. I like Jack Fry’s and Frankfort Avenue as much as the Ottobar and Woodberry Kitchen. A key difference is that Baltimore’s premier racing event doesn’t try to be something it’s not.

Preakness Day at Pimlico is essentially a drunken free-for-all surrounded by a series of horse races; an excuse for east coast college-aged kids to get wasted and do as they please. Well known incidents have curtailed the reckless abandon in recent years. There was the time a fella got so drunk he ran onto the track during a race, apparently tried to punch the horses, and was nearly trampled. Then there’s the infamous “running of the urinals” when a young man was hit upside the head by a full can of beer and knocked on his ass. I don’t know if he was okay after getting hit, but he sure as hell wasn’t all that okay before getting hit.

At Pimlico, there’s no fashion pretense and damn few “Derby hats.” The minimum attire required to fit in at Pimlico is also the minimum attire needed to buy a beer at 7-11; shirt and shoes (and those can always be removed later). At last year’s post Preakness party a fight nearly break out when the caterer ran out of crab cakes. I also witnessed a fistfight in the concourse when one luckless bettor accidentally bumped into another.

Friday’s Kentucky Oaks day crowd is huge as Churchill Downs is packed; whereas the Black-Eyed Susan Day crowd is comparatively thin and revered by locals as the preferred time to visit Pimlico – before the shit hits the fan on Saturday when thousands of drunks pile in. The Derby is a spectacle, but the Preakness is real – an honest reflection of its host city. Pimlico, and the surrounding neighborhood, is unapologetically dirty, dingy, dangerous, and its best days are in the past. Yes, that is Baltimore.

Enjoy the races, I think Orb will probably win, but would like to see Departing give him a run for his money. Last year’s stretch duel between I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister was thrilling; hopefully we’ll see another great race this year. Good luck!

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Nobody Knows Anything – WirePlayers Derby Dozen Volume V

Posted on May 2, 2013 by Steve

Two days out from the Derby and we have our final ranking. Panel consensus indicates ORB as the most likely winner based on points, but REVOLUTIONARY received the most #1 votes. How do you explain that: apparently those who like ORB don’t like REVOLUTIONARY; yet not vice versa.

Here’s the individual ballots.

I want to thank the Derby Dozen panelists for lending their thoughts and wisdom.

As for my top pick, it WAS Black Onyx. Why Black Onyx? I could give a reasoned analysis involving form cycles, pace scenario, running style, pedigree, track biases, etc., but those are just meaningless details at this point. You could effectively make an argument for, or against, any of the 20 horses entered in the race; which leads me to quote the legendary Billy Goldman, “Nobody knows anything.” Meaning, until the race is run, all we have are opinions, be they educated and rational or not (by the way, Billy was specifically referring to Hollywood’s ability to predict box office success, but it applies to horse racing quite nicely).

The true inspiration for selecting Black Onyx occurred several weeks ago at approximately 6:30 am on a routine weekday while sitting on the can (where I typically do my best thinking). Mulling over the Derby hopefuls in my mind and feeling somewhat glum by a lack of enthusiasm for any particular contender. Not a single horse appeared to have any greater chance to win than any of the others.

thinker

That’s when it hit me. A little voice in my head whispered, “Why not Black Onyx?” Hmmm . . . . , Black Onyx? Sure, sure . . . . why not Black Onyx I thought to myself. He gutted me in a turf allowance at Gulfstream when I had the top four finishers in my trifecta, all except the winner Black Onyx. Having learned a lesson, I make a few bucks off him in the Spiral, but wasn’t awestruck by the performance.

I went back and watched his races again. He wasn’t flashy and imposing like Animal Kingdom whose last-to-first romp in the 2011 Spiral marked him an obvious Derby play. In contrast, Black Onyx’s win in the Spiral was uneventful; you could even describe it as somewhat business-like. But that’s what I liked most as I reviewed his other races; there was a distinctive “professionalism” about him. He always broke well from the gate and liked to be forwardly placed, but never rank and uncontrollable. He knew how to win (being 3 for 5 lifetime) and didn’t need to bring his track with him (wins over dirt, turf, and synthetic at 3 different tracks). Moving to Kelly Breen’s barn and training at Palm Meadows instead of on Gulfstream Park’s main track caused noticeable improvement. And he’s by a grade 1 winning sire at 10 furlongs (Rock Hard Ten). He just might be a diamond in the rough.

But there I go trying to make his case. I won’t bullshit you, what convinced me was that little voice in my head. Much like Tom Selleck’s character in Magnum P.I., I’ve learned over the years to heed that voice. Sure that little voice will occasionally tell me to crack a bag of Funyuns for an afternoon snack, but when it comes to horses, it demands my attention.

And if it were not for that little voice whispering “Black Onyx,” then which horse do I like to win? None of them; and by that I mean, any of them.

But then Wednesday’s post-position draw happened . . . and Black Onyx drew the 1 hole. In 20-horse Derby fields, it’s nearly impossible to win from post position 1; at least it hasn’t happened yet. The reason is a matter of geometry as the horses from outside posts must angle over from the starting gate in a mad dash to the first turn. Invariably, horses drawn to the inside, unless they engage in an all-out sprint to the gate, get crushed by this wall of charging horseflesh. As Rob (aka Amatuercapper) told me via email, Black Onyx figures to get the Lookin At Lucky nightmare trip, except he isn’t as good. Contender ArchArchArch had the same bad trip in 2011 and came out of it with an injury.

He’s 50-1 and will need a miracle to win. It could happen because anything can happen. But only fools and zealots bet on miracles.

So what’s “plan B”?

Well, this morning I patiently waited for that little voice and . . . crickets.

Here’s the dozen:

The WirePlayers blog is fueled by Liege waffles, Ardbeg, and 50 cent Pick 4s. But it’s these fine individuals who provide the brain power behind the Derby Dozen:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Andrew Mangini
Crystal Conway

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Racing Must Do A Better Job Promoting Its Assholes and Douchebags

Posted on April 23, 2013 by Steve

With a week and a half til the Kentucky Derby I could write about contender pedigrees, but there are others much more knowledgeable than I on the subject; say Sid Fernando or Frank Mitchell. Or I could write about which horse I think will win, but that’s just one guy’s opinion. Watch the races, look at the racing form, and draw your own conclusions (or wait for our final Derby Dozen to roll out next week).

Instead I’ll write about sports and reality television. My friend Dean (I think he’s my friend, we’ve never met) over at PTP wrote about horse racing on TV. Give it a read; it’s good. His point: Triple Crown races get decent ratings, but nobody watches the Derby preps (or even the Breeders’ Cup for that matter).

You wanna know what gets good ratings on the TV box these days: Duck Dynasty, WWE Raw, Swamp People, and The Real Housewives of Who Gives a Shit.

Yesterday I took a peek at “What Would Ryan Lochte Do” on the E Network. Two observations: 1) the show blows; and 2) Ryan Lochte is a douche. Heretofore, I only thought Michael Phelps was a douche. Sure, Phelps won like 20 Gold Medals or something so I guess he’s some kind of American hero. But we’re about talking swimming here (and I mean that with all the disdain and ridicule Allen Iverson meant when he was talking about “practice”). The Olympics pumps out dozens of medals for swimming events categorized by distance and swimming stroke (e.g., the 100 meter, 200 meter, 400 meter, the free style, butterfly, backstroke, and then there’s the relays). That’s why the record for number of Gold Medals won in a single Olympics Phelps broke belonged to another swimmer, Mark Spitz. So if you’re a dominant swimmer you can just rake in the hardware. Good for him.

That doesn’t mean being dominant in your area of expertise is not an achievement. It’s just not as impressive as winning the Decathlon in my book. Or, for that matter, winning multiple Gold Medals over a prolonged period of time in a sport in which you do not dominate. That, my friends, takes effort . . . and a set of stones. If you want to see America’s greatest Olympian, do yourself a favor and look up Al Oerter. He worked a full-time professional gig and in his spare time won 4 Gold Medals as a true amateur Olympian.

But back to Phelps and Lochte. Like I said, I knew Phelps was a goofball, but he can swim. He’s made millions off his fame, but that doesn’t disguise the fact that he’s a tool. Thank God for swimming because that goofy bastard couldn’t get laid in a Tijuana whorehouse with a fistful of twenties. I realize that’s a tired cliché, but the 1st person to ever say that must’ve been saying that about someone just like Phelps. Lochte was Phelps’ rival. He was Aylydar to Phleps’ Affirmed.

Lochte is a handsome guy though; and I say that as a dude who’s comfortable with his manhood and sexuality. In addition to losing to repeatedly to Phelps, Lochte is famous for chasing poon in Vegas with Prince Harry; and I say that as a dude who’s incredibly jealous.

But now Lochte’s got a TV show and it’s dreck. However, it says something about the modern sports and entertainment landscape doesn’t it? I mean, if Lochte were a halfway intelligent, hardworking, low-key, humble, salt-of-the-earth-type guy nobody would watch. Why? Because that would be boring! The guys (and gals) who sit in cubicles all day don’t want to go home and watch people on TV who act like themselves. They want to see crazy-ass people acting like crazy-ass fools. If these crazy-ass people happen to be rich and live in a nice house; well, so much the better.

No shit, one of my favorite shows: Bravo’s Vanderpump Rules. Yes, I should be embarrassed for admitting that because it’s pure trash. The show is dumb, the characters are fake, the storylines are preposterous, but it’s like watching one train wreck after another. You know, people getting drunk, acting stupid, banging in the bathroom, fighting in the parking lot, and then going to AA. The characters are horrible and repulsive and I cannot stop watching.

There was a reality show about horse racing a few years back that held promise. It was called “Jockeys” and aired on Animal Planet. It featured Chantal Sutherland who seemed nice and hardworking (and was the nominal “star” because she was somewhat attractive; meaning she had long hair and set of boobs); Mike Smith who seemed nice and hardworking; Jon Court who seemed nice and hardworking; Aaron Gryder who seemed nice and hardworking; and Corey Nakatani who was a complete asshole. Guess what; the ratings sucked and the show was cancelled. From what I recall, the show mostly involved Smith and Sutherland ruminating over their relationship and Kayla Stra’s inability to find the winner’s circle. The Nakatani character would’ve been the catalyst on any other reality show, but on “Jockeys” he received neglible screen time.

The show should’ve been about Nakatani acting like a dick. And to be honest, he needed to ham it up and little and act like even more of a dick than what came naturally. He should’ve been cussing, fighting, getting piss drunk, and snorting coke off the bare ass of a hooker. Heck, Mike Smith should’ve been snorting coke off Chantal Sutherland’s bare ass too! That’s what sells folks. HBO’s scripted series “Luck” was on the right track and may have succeeded if not for those pesky horses that kept dying on them.

No doubt, the racing industry is full of nice, honest, hardworking people. You’ll surely be exposed to a few of them during NBC’s 2 hours of human interest schlock prior to next weekend’s Derby. This brings to mind Alec Baldwin’s infamous “pep talk” in Glengarry Glen Ross, “Nice guy? I don’t give a shit. Good father? Fuck you! Go home and play with your kids.”

Racing, like any other industry subculture, has its assholes, cheats, and douchebags. To be honest, it probably has more than its fair share. To some that’s a liability, but it could be an asset.

I don’t believe many people watch NASCAR races for the crashes. And just so you know, the way stock cars are designed these days, it’s rare to see any serious injuries even from horrific looking crashes. Jockeys are in far greater danger every time they enter the gate on the back of a horse. A NASCAR driver wrecks and may have a sore neck for a few days; a jockey falls of his horse and may never walk again.

People watch NASCAR to see the drivers going at it against each other; either on the track or better yet, off. WWE style smack talk, pit lane fisticuffs, and helmet throwing. That’s what it’s about. You know what launched NASCAR into mainstream popularity? The 1979 Daytona 500. That’s when the Allison brothers (Donnie and Bobby) got into a fist fight with Cale Yarborough in the middle of the infield after the race. Look it up. It was great theater, and that incident put the redneck regional sport on the map. How popular was horse racing in 1978? How popular was NASCAR in 1978? Yeah, look that up too.

You want to make horse racing popular? How about a jockey fight after the Derby? How about Baffert and Pletcher throwing down in the winner’s circle? A fast horse might win you some money; a super horse might win the Triple Crown (one day); but human drama will bring the ratings, and that can be manufactured quite cheaply my friends.

Question is, how important is it for horse racing to have that kind of popularity? The Devil eagerly awaits your response.

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Woodbine 2013

Posted on April 16, 2013 by Doug McPherson

WirePlayers is pleased to welcome Doug McPherson to the blog. Doug lives in Ontario, comes from a racing family, and works at Woodbine racetrack. Below, Doug offers his thoughts about Woodbine’s upcoming 2013 season, set to kick off this weekend.  

After a long, cold winter full of Gulfstream dreams, it’s time for the 2013 Woodbine meet. While big-time trainers spent their winter training and/or racing in Florida or Louisiana, the average Joes resumed training back on March 1st.  The excitement for the return of live racing can be felt in the air, even as we enter some uncertain times.

As many know, the Slots at Racetracks Program (SARP) had been cancelled by the Ontario Government and the Ontario Lottery & Gaming Corporation (OLG.)  A slots parlor remains in the Woodbine grandstand, but with the exception of a ‘rent’ payment from the OLG, none of the money from slots players will go towards purses. We now enter a strange time where our purses need to come from *gasp* wagering handle.

It’s not all bad though. The Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) made a smart move for handle by lowering the takeout rate on win wagers to 14.95%, the lowest in North America. Our handle showed an increase of 13% last year, the 4th consecutive year in which handle has increased. We’ve got the greatest turf course in North America; the Queen’s Plate is still a $1 million race; and overnight purses remain at the same level they were in 2012. There is a silver lining in our cloud.

Some of the most talented Woodbine regulars are on the grounds and working, including sprint-superstar Essence Hit Man and the always consistent Ontario-sired Jenna’s Wabbit. Also soon to be returning are Mark Casse’s pair of former Kentucky Derby contenders, Uncaptured and Dynamic Sky, now pointed towards the Queen’s Plate. Also returning is Mark Frostad trainee Irish Mission, winner of last year’s Woodbine Oaks and Breeders’ Stakes. Needless to say, there’s plenty of talent in Toronto.

Opening weekend features the Star Shoot Stakes for 3 year old fillies on Saturday and the Woodstock Stakes for 3 year olds on Sunday. Both carry a $150,000 purse and go 6 furlongs. The action starts on Saturday and continues until December 15th. From a local to all of you, I wish you all the best of luck playing the 2013 Woodbine meet.

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WirePlayers Derby Dozen Volume IV

Posted on April 10, 2013 by Steve

Fragments of useful data interspersed with healthy doses of cynicism and discontent, we’re proud to release our latest Derby Dozen poll.

The top half of our Derby Dozen poll is similar to three weeks ago with some reshuffling due to Orb’s victory in the Florida Derby and Revolutionary’s win in the Louisiana Derby. Apparently, those performances impressed more than Verrazano’s Wood Memorial win as he dropped 3 spots despite passing the Grade I test. He’s even behind Oxbow despite him being idle since finishing 2nd to Will Take Charge in the Rebel (Oxbow races in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby).

The bottom half on our poll on the other hand has been in a state of flux since February. Super 99 and Flashback were suspect from the get go and have fallen by the wayside. Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby, but there’s lingering suspicion over whether he a legit contender. Our good friend Chris Hernandez is so cynical of this year’s 3 year old crop that his ballot was: 1) Oxbow; 2) War Academy; 3-12) Blank. Can’t say I blame him, when you assess the performances and pedigrees of the contenders it’s hard to be enthusiastic.

However, there’s one key fact to consider: no matter how mediocre the horses that load into the Derby gate may be, one of them has to win.

The WirePlayers blog is fueled by Liege waffles, Ardbeg, and 50 cent Pick 4s. But it’s these fine individuals who provide the brain power behind the Derby Dozen (Poll #4 ballots):
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Andrew Mangini
Crystal Conway

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The Spiral Stakes (G3) – Hanging in the Balance

Posted on March 23, 2013 by Derek

Originally Posted at ThoroFan.

With the new Kentucky Derby points system in play, Saturday’s Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park offers one of only a couple chances for turf horses to pick up the points needed to make it into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

Two horses that will take a fair bit of action in the wagering will be #3 UNCAPTURED and #7 MAC THE MAN. Both have pretty hefty questions to answer and will likely not offer much value. UNCAPTURED hasn’t been seen since his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club in November. So we know he likes Churchill, and with six wins in seven starts he certainly has the class. Four of those wins have come on the synthetic surface at Woodbine, but the one loss was in the Grey Cup at a mile and a sixteenth. He’s had 5 works starting in February, with the last at a mile on March 12. Clearly the connections have been pointing for this spot, but it’s really an all or nothing proposition for him on Saturday. I question his fitness, and his pedigree – Lion Heart out of an Arch mare – doesn’t scream distance.

MAC THE MAN has run on nothing but synthetics, but his most recent wins have come in a pair of $50k stakes. He keeps the services of jockey Norberto Arroyo Jr., who, at the time of writing this, is on his longest streak remaining out of jail. The horse is coming off a 49 day layoff, with only two works since his last race. Both his class and fitness are worth questioning.

The horse with the most upside is #1 BALANCE THE BOOKS. He has the same look as Animal Kingdom had coming into this race just two years ago. A turf specialist who spent his two year old campaign running against the best juvenile turfers in the country, his pedigree screams distance and he’s been working steadily since January for this race. On a track that typically benefits closers, his style fits perfectly

In a year where clearly anything can happen in the derby preps, it would be foolish to discount the chances of #4 FEAR THE KITTEN. This is a horse that has finished well on dirt behind monster performances from Oxbow and Super Ninety Nine, but his pedigree screams turf or synthetic. In the last 60 days, according to Brisnet, when Rosie Napravnik rides for Mike Maker she wins at a 30 percent clip. His speed figures are really nothing special, but factoring in those were on a surface he probably didn’t prefer, I see a lot more upside once he gets on synthetic.

The longshot I hope will pick up the pieces and hit the board to spice up the exotics will be #2 CHANNEL ISLE. Saying that Wayne Lukas is hot right now takes some getting used to, but here’s another horse with turf and distance breeding that has decent turf and synthetic form buried in his past performances.

While the racing purists (I like to call them “Big Dirt”) grouse on Sunday morning about how turf horses swept the win, place and show spots in The Spiral, I plan on counting my money.

$50 BANKROLL PLAYS:

 $10 Exacta: BALANCE THE BOOKS /UNCAPTURED, FEAR THE KITTEN

$1 Trifecta: BALANCE THE BOOKS, UNCAPTURED/ BALANCE THE BOOKS, UNCAPTURED, FEAR THE KITTEN/BALANCE THE BOOKS, UNCAPTURED, MAC THE MAN, FEAR THE KITTEN, CHANNEL ISLE

$4 Exacta: FEAR THE KITTEN/BALANCE THE BOOKS, UNCAPTURED

$10 Win: FEAR THE KITTEN

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Boom Goes Bust – WirePlayers Derby Dozen Volume III

Posted on March 20, 2013 by Steve

Much like a third world economy, some Kentucky Derby contenders undergo profound Boom and Bust cycles every prep season. For “Exhibit A” take the case of Super Ninety Nine. He failed to garner a single vote in Volume I, but after a scintillating, possibly slop aided, performance in the Southwest Stakes, he rocketed to fifth place in Derby Dozen Volume II. Perhaps a case of irrational exuberance, but after an off the board finish in the Rebel, his bubble burst and wound up on the “others receiving votes” list with 6 votes.

Exhibit B might be Orb. Weeks after defeating an odds-on Violence in the Fountain of Youth, he ascends to 5th in our ranking. From an investment standpoint, Orb was worth a “buy” before the Fountain of Youth, but very well may be a “sell” before the Kentucky Derby, if not the Florida Derby.

In contrast, there are a few contenders lurking near the bottom of our list, sometimes on, sometimes off. These mid-tier contenders such as Fear The Kitten, Balance The Books, Mac The Man, Hear The Ghost, Tiz The Truth (before a quarter crack stalled his training) have enjoyed consistent, but certainly not overwhelming support. It’s worth noting that a few of them face off in Saturday’s Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.

Which leads me to speculate that a prop bet on any horse named “Something The Something” winning the 2013 Kentucky Derby might not be such a bad idea. Any takers?

The WirePlayers blog is fueled by blueberry pancakes, single malt Scotch, and dreams of cold trifectas. But it’s these fine individuals who provide the brain bytes behind the Derby Dozen (Poll #3 ballots):
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Andrew Mangini
Crystal Conway

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Making Sense of the Rebel Stakes

Posted on March 19, 2013 by Brian H.

The Rebel Stakes was run Saturday, and while I wasn’t too overwhelmed by the race as a whole, it did lend us to some answers about a few Kentucky Derby hopefuls. The race was run cleanly, and featured a slightly above average early pace, which deteriorated in the stretch. With this, I’d say it’s safe to upgrade the horses on or close to the early pace, and downgrade the closers, a tad.

Will Take Charge: A fine win from the “other” Wayne Lukas colt here, but considering that he did not improve much from his prior win in the, so-so, Smarty Jones stakes, his victory casts a shadow of doubt on this field. Will Take Charge had a beautiful trip, sitting just far enough off of the early pace, and getting clear run at a weary Oxbow, late.  This win was the product of circumstance, rather than talent and Will Take Charge is to still be looked at as a longshot, in the Derby field.

Oxbow and Den’s Legacy: These two were caricatures of themselves here, with Oxbow running the same gritty/valiant in defeat race that he first demonstrated in the Risen Star, and Den’s Legacy turning in his wanting, yet still inadequate run.

Oxbow ran, by far, the best race in the Rebel, having gone four wide on both turns. He then put away Super Ninety Nine, held off Den’s Legacy, and caved late. Although he ran the best race of ‘em here, this is his peak, at 8.5 furlongs. If he were to duplicate this same effort at Churchill, he’s looking at a ninth place finish. The challenge the added 1.5 furlongs that the Derby will present him with, will be too much to handle.

I generally don’t subscribe to the “bounce” theory, but after two consecutive hard-fought efforts, don’t expect Oxbow to be at 100% next time out.

Den’s Legacy’s consistency is admirable, but the fact that he couldn’t get the job done here represents his inability to crack the list of elite three year old colts. Den’s Legacy had a fantastic trip, skimming the rail on the 2nd turn, and despite moving a tad too early, he had every right to win this race, but still came up short. He is possibly one of the few in this race that may improve with the added 1/16th of a mile next time out.

Texas Bling: Meh. This longshot’s effort will look better on paper than it actually was since Cliff Berry was able to work out a rail-hugging trip. He made a bit of a late run, but I’d discount that as the pace was falling apart. He’s also by Too Much Bling, so I’m not sure he’s enthralled with two turns.

Super Ninety Nine: A dull effort from the 6/5 favorite, as he sat a favorable trip down the backside. Perhaps he was pressured into moving a bit earlier than Bejarano would have liked, early on the grandstand turn, but he then offered little resistance in the stretch. Not sure what to make of this effort – he was a legitimate favorite and the pace that he sat off of, seemingly, wasn’t all that fast – so I’ll hypothesize that he was feeling the effects of his second trip to Arkansas from Santa Anita within 4 weeks.

Super Ninety Nine’s final Derby prep is crucial, and not just because he only has 10 points, but as a result of this misstep, he needs another top effort to validate his romp in the Southwest stakes over a sloppy, speed-favoring surface. In the Southwest, the majority of his competition was putrid, and those with talent were severely hampered by the off-track. Right now, if you’re still buying his Derby stock, it’s primarily off of his allowance win over Code West at Santa Anita earlier this year.

Treasury Bill: Disappointment. Maybe he didn’t have the best of breaks (not that it should matter to a closer such as himself) and wasn’t all that comfortable rounding the 2nd turn, down on the inside, but this Lemon Drop Kid, kid, was never involved. When it comes to trails, he’s more suited for the Oregon, rather than the Derby.

Delhomme: Complete no-show; and since we can induce that something was amiss, his performance isn’t worth discussion.

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Saturday Handicapping Notes

Posted on March 15, 2013 by Steve

WirePlayers contributor Dylan J. previewed Saturday’s Derby prep, Oaklawn Park’s G.2 Rebel Stakes, over at Thorofan’s Handicapper’s Corner. Despite the outside posts, Dylan likes OXBOW slightly more than SUPER NINETY NINE and I tend to agree. Under those two Dylan will be using WILL TAKE CHARGE and DEN’S LEGACY whereas I’ll go with TREASURY BILL, CARVE, and what the hell, STORMY HOLIDAY.

Read Dylan’s full preview at Thorofan.

The track I play the most in March is Gulfstream Park and their featured race on Saturday is the G.2 Honey Fox on the turf. Unfortunately, Gulfstream’s turf course is so torn up and in such bad shape that it’s beginning to look like the inner dirt course. The favorite is #2 CENTRE COURT (3-1) coming off a successful 3 year old season and has regular rider Julien Leparoux at GP for the mount. The biggest knock is the long layoff. I’ll try to beat the favorite with #4 CHANNEL LADY (4-1) who appears to be in fine form with notable success on GP’s turf course.

I wouldn’t take a short price on any horse in the Honey Fox however, as #8 SAMITAR (5-1), #6 PIANIST (5-1), and #5 NAMASKRA (8-1) all look to have a decent shot. I know Johnny V. will give PIANIST a solid ride and NAMASKRA is interesting 2nd off the layoff and might offer double digit odds come post time. I’ll use PIANIST and NAMASKRA under CHANNEL LADY and hope CENTRE COURT doesn’t fire fresh.

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Catching Up

Posted on March 8, 2013 by Steve

Last Saturday I made my first foray into the world of live money handicapping tournaments by playing a qualifier for next year’s Horseplayer World Series in Las Vegas at Laurel Park.  The Rules: $300 buy-in with $100 going to the prize pool and $200 to bet. Minimum bets were $20 for Win, Place, or Show (no max bet amount or number of bets) and you had to make at least 10 wagers choosing from any of the following tracks: Laurel Park, Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Aqueduct, or the 1st 6 races at Santa Anita.

Judging from past winner totals, it was going to take anywhere from $1,500 to $2,000 in winnings for the grand prize so my going in strategy was to make only win bets at relatively high odds – no chalk. As it turned out, I ended up with zero dollars in my bankroll and a few lessons learned.

My plays:

1) 12:40 – Tampa Bay Race 1: $20 to win on Eika Eika Man at 21-1 / Result: Off the Board, finishing 8 of 9

2) 1:07 – Gulfstream Park Race 1: $20 to win on Patient Approval at 40-1 / Result: Finished 3rd

3) 3:01 – Santa Anita Race 1: $20 to win on Ethnic Dance at 6-1 / Result: Off the Board, finishing 6 of 8

4) 3:08 – Gulfstream Park Race 5: $20 to win on Tale of My Cat at 20-1 / Result: Finished 2nd

5) 4:08 – Aqueduct Race 8: $20 to win on Hengroen at 14-1 / Result: Off the Board, finishing 10th of 11

6) 4:16 – Gulfstream Race 7: $40 to win on Exclusive Strike at 5.50 – 1 / Result: Finished 2nd

7) 4:35 – Aqueduct Race 9: $20 to win on Heart Butte at 48-1 / Result: Off the board, finishing 9th of 10

8) 4:45 – Gulfstream Park race 8: $20 to win on Wontualwayswonder at 16- 1 / Result: Finished 3rd

9) 5:01 – Santa Anita Race 5: $20 to win on Horizon Sky at 12-1 / Result: Finished 3rd

Lessons learned:

Stick with what you know.  Even though you can pick and choose from 5 different tracks, bet the track(s) you know best. I normally play Gulfstream in the winter and all the horses I bet there ran well and hit the board at decent odds. No winners, but focusing only on Gulfstream, versus taking stabs at Tampa Bay and Aqueduct, would likely have yielded better returns. For example, I really liked Clearly Now in the Swale, but had dug too big a hole and was out of cash by the time he cruised to victory at 7-1. I wasted early money betting Tampa Bay, Santa Anita, and Aqueduct – tracks I rarely play at all and my bets at those tracks where disappointing to say the least.

I should not have shunned Place and Show bets on double-digit long shots. Place and show won’t win the tournament, but they could’ve built the bankroll up to make bigger win bet plays later in the day. I was going for bombs, and almost landed some, but close only counts in … you know the rest.

Be patient. I bet early races out of over-eagerness instead of waiting around for the races I had much more confidence. Keep your powder dry.

Despite the loss, I enjoyed the experience and may try to play more tournaments in the future. It was also nice to meet local horseplayers @dcdino and @bet_on_dylan. They did considerably better on Saturday than I did.

What is going on:

Get up early Saturday morning for Dubai World Cup preview day.

The 2012 Kentucky Derby show finisher and Pacific Classic winner Dullahan (9/2) races at 10:25 eastern in the Group 3 Burj Nahaar. It’s a one-mile race on the synthetic track with Kieran Fallon taking the reins. Dullahan has not raced since a disappointing 9th in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but Dullahan has also never lost on a synthetic track.

The 2012 Arlington Million and Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Little Mike (4-1) goes in the next race at 11:00 sharp, the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge. Dale Romans trains both Dullahan and Little Mike and might have a very good day in Dubai on Saturday.

Saturday’s races are considered preps for the Dubai World Cup races on March 30th. By the way, Michele MacDonald provides terrific coverage of the Dubai World Cup Carnival over at AmWest.

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Our Gift to You, Derby Dozen Volume II

Posted on February 27, 2013 by Steve

To avoid having anyone important in the racing industry getting on their high horse and being pissed at us, we’ve purged any semblance of criticism, parody, sarcasm, or general douchery from the latest Derby Dozen.

What’s left is nothing but hardcore analysis you can bank on when making your Kentucky Derby Future Wagers. That’s right, Pool #2 opens this weekend (Fri-Sun) so make sure you have plenty of money in the ol’ ADW come Sunday evening for those last minute impulse bets. I made a couple myself in Pool #1, though I can’t remember now which horses I bet. That’s ok, Derby Day will be like Christmas, but instead of looking under the tree for gifts, I’ll check to see if there’s any money in my account (which reminds me, should I take down the Christmas tree now or just leave it up until May 4th?).

What’s new in Volume II? We’re happy to report there will be no Violence in this year’s Derby. Apparently this was a concern of some racing fans, never mind that the horse exhibited the most talent, and most potential, of the leading contenders; his being trained by Todd Pletcher notwithstanding.

What else is new? Read below to find out:

Everyone knows the WirePlayers blog is fueled by pita chips, hummus, single malt Scotch, and dreams of 6 figure payouts. But it’s these fine individuals who provide the intellectual horsepower behind the Derby Dozen (ballots):
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Andrew Mangini
Crystal Conway

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Saturday’s Derby Preps at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park

Posted on February 22, 2013 by Steve

The Kentucky Derby prep season moves into the “Championship” phase according to Churchill’s new points system. What that means is that this weekend’s Risen Star and Fountain of Youth Stakes are worth 50 points to winner.

In the Risen Star I’ll bet #6 PALACE MALICE (8-1) to win, but if the track is sloppy I’ll also use #10 OXBOW (5-1) on top in the exotics. #2 CODE WEST (6-1) and #1 PROUD STRIKE (8-1) could make some noise, but I’m trying to beat the favorite #9 NORMANDY INVASION (5/2). His rally in the Remsen was impressive, but I didn’t care for how he hung in the stretch. Checkout my detailed Risen Star preview over at Thorofan.

On the Risen Star undercard the lock of the weekend may be DAISY DEVINE in the Bayou Handicap (Race 5). She might be 1/9 come post time despite giving up 12 to 14 pounds to the field. I don’t make win bets at those odds no matter who’s running, but I do like a few long shots in races 6 and 7 to toss into the Daily Double and Pick 3. In Race 6, #8 TOOLPUSHER (15-1) was horrible in his debut sprinting on the turf. He switches to the main track for in his 2nd start and I expect dramatic improvement. In the Fair Grounds Handicap (Race 7), #7 OPTIMIZER (3-1) is the horse to beat, and should win. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if #6 TWO MONTHS RENT (12-1) moves up and into the money with the jockey switch to Rosie Napravnik after some time off. Worth noting that TWO MONTHS RENT has won on soft turf.

The weather will be drier at Gulfstream Park for the Fountain of Youth Stakes and a fast track is expected. #3 VIOLENCE (9/5) will go off at odds on and should win. However I’ll also be using long shot #1 ORB (12-1) in the exacta and trifecta and on top of a few multi-race tickets just in case VIOLENCE falters and doesn’t get it done.

Good luck!

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Baffert with Short-priced Favs on President’s Day

Posted on February 18, 2013 by Steve

California-based trainer Bob Baffert has two short-priced favorites going in President’s Day graded stakes today. He ships SUPER NINETY NINE (7/5) to Oaklawn Park for a Derby prep; the Grade III Southwest Stakes. He also has BRIGAND (9/5) on the chilly east coast at Laurel Park for the Grade III General George. Are they beatable or bet-able?

The Southwest is the more intriguing race and SUPER NINETY NINE faces a few challengers with upside. BRIGAND faces a small field and cuts back from a mile to 7 furlongs. Both loom the horse to beat. Grab some PPs here to handicap the races.

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Like a Bad Penny – WirePlayers Derby Dozen (Volume I)

Posted on February 6, 2013 by Steve

It’s back. Embarking on our 4th spring of passing judgment upon Kentucky Derby hopefuls, it’s fitting to paraphrase Judge Smails, we didn’t want to do it, but felt we owed it to them.

We assembled a panel of 12 horseplayers and racing fans from around the country to rank their top 12 Derby contenders. To maintain integrity, ensure accountability, and prevent claims of geographic bias, we have the East Coast, Midwest, and West Coast all represented. Our results are even auditable.

What’s remarkable about this year’s Derby is the new points system. Whereas graded stakes earnings determined the 20 starters in the past, Churchill Downs instituted a completely fair and balanced point system to weight the value of the prep races. What this means is that big money winners like SHANGHAI BOBBY and GOLDENCENTS may still have work left to guarantee their Derby spot. Not sure how it will play out, or even if it’s better or worse than the previous system, but it should make the prep season even more exciting and tension filled.

But enough with all that BS, behold the spectacle that is the WirePlayers Derby Dozen Volume I:

Here’s the fine people who volunteered their time and expertise to be part of our Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Andrew Mangini
Crystal Conway

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The Sam F. Davis (G3) – A Prep for the Preps

Posted on February 1, 2013 by Derek

Originally posted at Thorofan.

While this race used to virtually guarantee the winner a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate with the winner’s share of a $250,000 purse, the new points system gives the winner only 10 points – equivalent to running third in the Risen Star or fourth in the UAE Derby. So while the winner will still need to pick up some points along the road to Louisville, this is still an important race to start weed out the legitimate contenders from pretenders.

There’s not much early pace in the field, but I expect #3 DIVINE AMBITION, #5 SPEAK LOGISTICS and #1A DYNAMIC SKY to set a controlled tempo up front. DYNAMIC SKY is the class of the field, but also frustrated bettors last year with his ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory due to his greenness down the lane in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. I was all over him in the Breeders Cup, but a brutal trip and a speed-favoring surface he didn’t seem to care for, and possibly not running with Lasix, made him a non-factor.

It seems the addition of blinkers last out in the Pasco Stakes helped him regain his focus, and any horse that shows an affinity for the quirky Tampa surface can’t be ignored.  He’ll be coupled with #1 NORTHERN LION, who broke his maiden in December with a front running score at Gulfstream. He controlled a pretty leisurely pace up front that day, and I don’t anticipate he’ll get an easy lead on Saturday. I’m glad that he’s part of the entry, because this horse is typical for those three year olds this time of year who could be on the improve and run a breakout race at any time. When owners pay $625,000 for a horse by a stallion (Lion Heart) that stands for $12,500 it’s worth taking notice that they think he might be special.  There’s still a class question to answer, but good horses find a way to answer it at some point.

SPEAK LOGISTICS is very intriguing. Both his wins have been around two turns and he hasn’t been seen since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November where he too didn’t show much.  His prior two wins prior to that race, though, would likely get him the win on Saturday. So again, it’s the questions of surface, trip, Lasix, class or all of the above that he needs to answer on Saturday. With bigger goals down the road, I anticipate this horse to run well, but probably not win.

#4 MY NAME IS MICHAEL feels like one of those horses that will be overbet but also can’t be tossed. Trainer Bill Mott and Jockey Joel Rosario are just awfully good at what they do and Mott hits at 23 percent when switching a horse from synthetic to dirt. Pedigree and recent works seem to indicate that this horse will appreciate finally getting to race on dirt, but he’s still a maiden with only a win at six furlongs under his belt. If the price is near his morning line of 4-1 or higher, he becomes especially interesting, but anything lower won’t offer much value.

#8 FALLING SKY seems like both the wildcard and, at 5-1, the value of the field. He’s never been around two turns, run poorly in his only race at Tampa, has been off since December and draws a tough outside post. All negatives indeed. But the thing is, his speed figures in the two wins that sandwiched the loss at Tampa make him a legitimate contender. He’s worked really well since his last win and I’m willing to chalk the loss at Tampa up to having to chase a slow pace than the track itself. In a race where value is going to be tough to find, this seems like one that could at least make the exotics interesting.

$50 BANKROLL PLAYS:

$10 Exacta: DYAMIC SKY (entry) /MY NAME IS MICHAEL, SPEAK LOGISTICS

$2 Trifecta: DYNAMIC SKY, MY NAME IS MICHAEL/DYNAMIC SKY, MY NAME IS MICHAEL, SPEAK LOGISTICS/ DYNAMIC SKY, MY NAME IS MICHAEL, SPEAK LOGISTICS, FALLING SKY

$2 Exacta: FALLING SKY/DYNAMIC SKY, MY NAME IS MICHAEL

$10 Win: SPEAK LOGISTICS

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