Your Guide to KY Derby Glory – WirePlayers Derby Dozen Volume I
Yes friends, it’s here again, Derby Road. While hopeful owners, trainers, and jockeys well . . ., jockey for a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, we’re here passing judgement with our Derby Dozen list. Sure, we offer the perfunctory 1 to 12 ranking you’ll find most anywhere, but our list offers opinions by opinionated people. If you pay attention closely you may just find a few nuggets of wisdom buried within (but no promises!).At this point, no one knows which horse will win the Derby and it doesn’t really matter. What’s important is forming your own opinion about which horses might win the Derby and identifying those that are maturing and peaking at the right time. By following the Derby Preps closely you’ll have insights you can turn into cold hard cash come May 5th.
Follow the Derby preps using the handy dandy schedule on our KY Derby page and check in on our Derby Dozen list (we’ll vote every three weeks) to see if our opinions line up with yours. Putting the time in now may payoff later.
Special thanks to our expert Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Let the Sunshine In
On Saturday January 28, Gulfstream Park in South Florida will present its “Florida Sunshine Millions” racing program. The program features six stake races restricted to Florida-bred horses.Sunshine Millions this year will be different from prior years. Prior years featured Florida-breds and California-breds racing against each other in stakes that alternated between in venue between Gulfstream and Santa Anita Park near Los Angeles. This year, Gulfstream has a Florida-bred centered program and Santa Anita has a California-bred centered program.
In a new twist this year, races from Santa Anita and Gulfstream will be mixed together into a one-time wager called the “Luck Pick Six”. This wager carries a one dollar base, a mandatory payout (no carryover), and a minimum pool of $250,000. The wager is a cross-promotional tool between the two festivals and also celebrates the beginning of HBO’s racing-centered series “Luck”.
We’ll look only at the Gulfstream portion. For a look at the Santa Anita portion, please visit Chris Hernandez’s “Giving My Ten Cents” blog and read his Sunshine Millions thoughts here.
Race 5 — Florida Sunshine Millions Distaff S. — 1 1/8 miles — Post tlime 2:35 EDT
Going for an upset right off the bat. DELIGHTFUL MARY has only one bad race on her resume, when sent wide last spring in the G1 Ashland at Keeneland. Last time out in a single-turn mile over this course she sat off respectable speed and won. Jockey/trainer team dominated in Canada, but have been quite capable in South Florida. AWESOME FEATHER will be the hype horse. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner starts for the first time since Thanksgiving. She’s certainly capable on paper but I am using her defensively. But I think my top pick offers equivalent risk and a better payout. SWEET REPENT fits at this minor stakes level, having won a number of them at Calder, South Florida’s other track. Gets a rider upgrade today, but in her last starts has finished behind fellow entrants MY PAL CHRISY and our top pick.
#3 DELIGHTFUL MARY (5/1)
#4 AWESOME FEAT (4/5)
#6 SWEET REPENT (6/1)
Longshot: Wait a minute….where are we?!. What are these strange trees? And where are the Illinois-breds? And where’s the Metra or the 54B bus? Well, give me a race to get my bearings. I got nothing.
Race 6 — Florida Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint S. — 3/4 miles (6 furlongs) — Post time 3:05 EDT
Today’s race, like all the other Florida Sunshine Millions races, does not carry a grade, and graded races tend to be of higher quality. That said, POMEROY’S PISTOL won the G3 Sugar Swirl at Gulfstream last time at today’s six furlong distance. Has never been worse than third in her career at Gulfstream and enters off two sharp workouts upstate. IT’S ME MOM had a stellar 2011, banking over $200K, with the only blemish coming from a bad break four back in Erie. Here, she’s the speed of the speed and Gulfstream has been known in the past to play kindly to front running speed. BC Filly & Mare Sprint winner MUSICAL ROMANCE makes her first start from the mothballs. She had a solid season at Calder, and appeared on the radar when second in the prestigious Princess Rooney. Duplicating her best last year would top these.
#5 POMEROY’S PISTOL (3/1)
#1 IT’S ME MOM (4/1)
#6 MUSICAL ROMANCE (5/2)
Longshot: #7 BEAT THE BLUES (6/1) has won fifty percent of her races in her career, but if you look only at starts on fast dirt, she has eleven starts, seven wins, two seconds, and a third. I think she hated the faux dirt surface three back against fellow entrant MUSICAL ROMANCE, and she’ll make the third start off the shelf for solid New Orleans-based human connections.
Race 7 — Florida Sunshine Millions Sprint S. — 3/4 miles (6 furlongs). — 1 1/8 miles — Post time 3:35 EDT
The one-two finishers of the Mr. Prospector Stakes, run at six furlongs overll this same course, return. I think they’ll finish that way again. APRIORITY closed to nail ZERO RATE POLICY on the line last time, and the winner has kept company with some good foes. Toss the effort in the slop at Belmont three back, and over a quirky moisture-retaining Churchill surface two back and his dry track efforts are good enough to take this. ZERO RATE POLICY has never finished worse than fourth in his career, and has eight top two finishes (and five wins) in ten lifetime tries. Never worse than second over the local dirt. ROYAL CURRIER has been competitive in age-minor stakes in the Mid-Atlantic and ships south, getting a rider upgrade to Dominguez. Never out of the trifecta in ten tries at today’s distance.
#7 APRIORITY (2/1)
#6 ZERO RATE POLICY (3/1)
#1 ROYAL CURRIER (6/1)b
Longshot: Third to ZERO RATE POLICY two back, #5 IT’S NEVER TOO LATE (12/1) could have been yours four starts back at Delaware for the low low price of $50K. Prior to throwing a clunker at Tampa, he had a stellar 2011 (six wins, $165K earnings). He’s won over the Gulfstream dirt before (five times, to be precise), and if ZERO RATE POLICY gets softened on the front end he’ll have a puncher’s chance.
Race 8 — (Leg #1 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf S. — 1 1/8 miles (Turf)– Post time 4:10 EDT
The portable rail will be, at publish time, set to 36 feet. G3 winner ROMACACA returns from a somewhat long layoff (a 29% win proposition) for Calabrese/Canini. Last time before the trip to cold storage, she pressed a solid pace and was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths at Saratoga against a field far and away better than these. She can win stalking, and she was classy enough and quick enough to grab a minor check in the prestigious Beverly D in 2010. Another G3 winner, UNBRIDLED HUMOR, returns since the Matriarch on Thanksgiving weekend. Trainer Motion (of Animal Kingdom fame) isn’t a frequent shipper, and she was in the same zip code as Never Retreat, last year’s best horse on the Arlington grounds and a solid female turfer. Defending champion TRIP FOR A.J. sees the starter here. With eleven money finishes in thirteen turf tries, many of them at similar state-bred conditions, she’ll be in the mix. Her up-close style will also be an asset given the rail position.
#5 ROMACACA (3/1)
#4 UNBRIDLED HUMOR (5/2)
#7 TRIP FOR A.J. (5/1)
Longshot: One for the home team with the honest mare #9 ROMIN ROBIN (8/1). She may like the grass in Chicago more, but she’s got six money finishes in twelve tries over the Gulfstream grass. I know she hasn’t won since the spring at Arlington, but she missed by inches against fellow entrant ASKBUT I WONTTELL, was overmatched in the Beverly D. Goes second start off the layoff.
Race 9 — (Leg #3 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Turf S. — 1 1/8 miles (Turf) — Post time 4:50 EDT
The portable rail will be, at publish time, set to 96 feet. TEAKS NORTH won two grade one (G1) races last year, the prestigious United Nations and the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, last year. The latter is at the same distance and course as today’s event. Goes second start off the layoff, which the trainer has done eight times in the past year, winning twice with two additional money finishers and a an ROI of $9.22. BAD DEBT won against fellow statebreds two back at Calder. Been in the top two all four career starts on the Gulfstream sod, and brought to you by a 20% trainer. ALLIE’S EVENT spent most of last year cashing checks in upper level allowances and stakes like the River City. The rail position, and presence of LITTLE MIKE giving pace, means this one-run closer will have something to attack. Enters off a sharp workout upstate at Tampa Bay Downs.
#10 TEAKS NORTH (3/1)
#3 BAD DEBT (6/1)
#7 ALLIE’S EVENT (12/1)
Longshot: #6 BECKHAM BEND (15/1) will be up close to the pace, and if the closers don’t come around this one can attack the leaders. Toss out the dismal effort going three turns in the Pan American and he’s hit the top two more than half the time. Was in the same zip code as a graded stakes-bound horse last time upstate at Tampa.
Race 10 — (Leg #5 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Classic S. — 1 1/8 miles — Post time 5:25 EDT
RON THE GREEK only beat four others, but he did it with aplomb last time in New York and has been working steadily since relocating to Florida. Sharp connections abound as he rides a two-race win streak, winning two races back at today’s distance. TURBO COMPRESSOR demolished Florida-breds across town last time and he faces state-breds again. Team has seven top two finishes in their last thirteen starts and he’s won over this course. DUKE OF MISCHIEF hasn’t been to the winners’ circle since beating Game On Dude (Horse of the Year finalist) and Tizway (double G1 winner) in West Virginia. He’s been facing a lot of big names, and none of them will be in the gate for this race, suggesting a drop in class. Trainer is 20% in listed stakes (like today’s).
#7 RON THE GREEK (5/1)
#5 TURBO COMPRESSOR (2/1)
#1 DUKE OF MISCHIEF (6/1)
Longshot: Give me #4 DECAF AGAIN at 30-1. This is a mess of a race where everyone has questions or flaws. Can ‘DUKE close off an honest pace? Can ‘TURBO get the lead? Can MUCHO MACHO MAN live up to hype? Can ADIOS CHARLIE go two turns? Is ‘RON for real? Toss out the last two turf races (we’re not on the turf today), and if our 1-2 picks decide to go at each other and commit suicide, DECAF AGAIN could come from the parking lot to pick up the pieces.
(As a note, legs 2, 4, and 6 correspond to the 4th, 5th, and 6th races at Santa Anita. For more info, see “Giving my Ten Cents“.)
Good luck this weekend!
Elegant Attire Required
Saturday’s feature at Aqueduct is the $75k Evening Attire Stakes which was postponed last Saturday due to snow. The race is written for three year olds and up, but in fitting nature, features all seniors of five and up in the 1 1/16th miles race. Let’s take a look at the field.#1 REDDING COLLIERY (2-1)
Certainly has plenty of back class to get into the winners circle. His last race was a sixth place finish but it was his first race in over a year so makes sense that he would need one. Like other foes in this race, he has a win over the track which is a positive and recent workouts are solid. I would not be surprised if he hits the board.
#2 HEART BUTTE (3-1)
Last year’s winner comes into this race only having raced one time since. That was a thrilling win at Parx on New Year’s Eve. He is a perfect two for two on the track and four for four at this distance. His win at Parx was very strong and I think he can improve further off that last effort and is clearly the one to beat in this spot.
#3 I WANT REVENGE (6/5)
I Want Revenge would have been the favorite in the 2009 Kentucky Derby but had to be scratched in the morning of the race. He has not won since the 2009 Wood Memorial here at Aqueduct. Since his return to the races, he has not been able to stay healthy, showing big gaps between races. His last race was at Belmont Park in the spring of 2011. He can win this race and any fan of the game would be rooting for him to return to glory. As a bettor however, I will be playing against him for those reasons and the expected short price.
#4 THUNDER BALL (12-1)
He’s won three straight races at Laurel Park, but against much lesser company. He ships in for connections who hit at a high percentage; jockey Harry Vega 14% and trainer Jose Corrales 21% with the two teaming up to win at a 60% clip with a nice RIO of $3.32. Having never raced over the inner track is a negative especially going up against those proven. A long shot at best.
#5 JIMANATOR (8-1)
A graded stakes champion comes in having lost last time to #2 HEART BUTTE by just over three lengths. JIMANATOR has taken his show on the road and run some very respectable races. He was blocked in the stretch during that last race which compromised his chances. David Cohen picks up the mount and is very good riding over the inner track. Upset potential.
Picks:
#2 HEART BUTTE
#5 JIMANATOR
#1 REDDING COLLIERY
Be sure to follow all my picks for Aqueduct on twitter @DylanTWM
Good Luck!
2012 Kentucky Derby Prep Race Schedule
This is my 2012 Kentucky Derby prep race schedule. There are many like it, but this one is mine. The Kentucky Derby is my best friend. It is my life. I must master it as I must master my life. The Kentucky Derby, without me, is useless. Without the Kentucky Derby, I am useless.Ok, ok, enough with my bastardization of the rifleman’s creed. At WirePlayers we’re kicking off our annual Kentucky Derby prep race coverage and here’s a handy schedule of key races. It will be updated as the Derby prep season progresses.
And stay tunned because next week we’ll debut this year’s WirePlayers Derby Dozen – guaranteed to satisfy and mystify.
2012 KY Derby & Triple Crown Prep Race Schedule
| Date | Track | Stakes Race | Distance | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19 | Delta Downs | Delta Jackpot (G3 - $1M) | 1 & 1/16 miles | SABERCAT ($18.00) |
| Dec 17 | Hollywood Park | CashCall Futurity (G1 - $750K) | 1 & 1/16 miles | LIAISON ($12.20) |
| Jan 7 | Santa Anita | Sham Stakes (G3 - $100K) | 1 & 1/16 miles | OUT OF BOUNDS ($22.60) |
| Jan 16 | Oaklawn Park | Smarty Jones ($100K) | 1 mile | JUNEBUGGED ($14.80) |
| Jan 21 | Fair Grounds | Lecomte (G3 - $175K) | 1 mile, 40 yrds | MR BOWLING ($9.20) |
| Jan 28 | Laurel Park | Dancing Count S. ($100K) | 6 furlongs | BEGGARTHYNEIGHBOR ($5.40) |
| Jan 29 | Gulfstream Park | Holy Bull (G3 - $400K) | 1 mile | ALGORITHMS ($7.00) |
| Feb 4 | Tampa Bay Downs | Sam F. Davis (G3 - $200K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Feb 4 | Aqueduct | Withers (G3 - $200K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Feb 4 | Santa Anita | Robert B. Lewis (G2 - $250K) | 1 and 1/8 mile | |
| Feb 4 | Turfway Park | WEBN Stakes ($50K) | 1 mile | |
| Feb 11 | Gulfstream Park | Hutheson (G2 - $150K) | 7 furlongs | |
| Feb 18 | Golden Gate Fields | El Camino Real (G3 - $200K) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Feb 19 | Santa Anita | San Vincente (G2 - $150K) | 7 furlongs | |
| Feb 20 | Oaklawn Park | Southwest (G3 - $250K) | 1 mile | |
| Feb 25 | Fair Grounds | Risen Star (G2 - $300K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Feb 25 | Laurel Park | Miracle Wood ($100K) | 7 furlongs | |
| Feb 25 | Sunland Park | Borderland Derby ($100K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Feb 26 | Gulfstream Park | Fountain of Youth (G2 - $400K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Mar 3 | Turfway Park | John Battaglia Memorial ($100K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Mar 3 | Aqueduct | Gotham (G3 - $400K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Mar 10 | Gulfstream Park | Swale (G2 - $150K) | 7 furlongs | |
| Mar 10 | Santa Anita | San Felipe (G2 - $250K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Mar 10 | Tampa Bay Downs | Tampa Bay Derby (G2 - $350K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Mar 11 | Gulfstream Park | Palm Beach (G3 - $150K) | 1 and 1/8 miles (turf) | |
| Mar 17 | Oaklawn Park | Rebel (G2 - $500K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Mar 17 | Laurel Park | Private Terms ($100K) | 1 mile | |
| Mar 24 | Turfway Park | Rushaway ($100K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Mar 24 | Turfway Park | Vinery Racing Spiral (G3 - $500K) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Mar 25 | Sunland Park | Sunland Derby (G3 - $800K) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Mar 31 | Gulfstream Park | Florida Derby (G1 - $1M) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Mar 31 | Meydan | UAE Derby (G2 - $2M) | 1,900 meters (~9.5 furlongs) | |
| Apr 1 | Fair Grounds | Louisiana Derby (G2 - $1M) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Apr 6 | Keeneland | Transylvania (G3 - $100K) | 1 and 1/16 miles (Turf) | |
| Apr 7 | Aqueduct | Bay Shore (G3 - $250K) | 7 furlongs | |
| Apr 7 | Aqueduct | Wood Memorial (G1 - $1M) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Apr 7 | Santa Anita | Santa Anita Derby (G1 -$1M) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Apr 7 | Hawthorne | Illinois Derby (G3 - $500K) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Apr 14 | Oaklawn Park | Arkansas Derby (G1 - $1M) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Apr 14 | Keeneland | Bluegrass (G1 - $750K) | 1 and 1/8 miles | |
| Apr 21 | Keeneland | Lexington (G3 - $200K) | 1 and 1/16 miles | |
| Apr 21 | Aqueduct | Jerome (G2 - $200K) | 1 mile | |
| Apr 28 | Churchill Downs | The Derby Trial (G3 - $200K) | 1 mile | |
| May 5 | Churchill Downs | Kentucky Derby (G1) | 1 and 1/4 miles | |
| May 19 | Pimlico | Preakness (G1) | 1 and 3/16 miles | |
| Jun 9 | Belmont Park | Belmont Stakes (G1) | 1 and 1/2 miles |
New Faces, New Places
With both Hawthorne and Arlington on hiatus, the Author felt it was a good time to take a break. Here, Paul Mazur (@heylaserbeam) returns from hiatus to chime in on some events and do some general housekeeping.–WirePlayers is pleased to announce that it has joined the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance (TBA).
You can find about them here and check out other blogs on their roster. One benefit to being invited to TBA is that allows each of the contributors to be on the rotation for the Thorofan “Handicapper’s Corner” series. Here’s the full schedule and each member of the WirePlayers team is in the rotation in March and April. I will be handling the G3 Illinois Derby in early April.
–On a more personal note, I will be appearing as well over at ChicagoNow with my own blog, “Picks and Ponderings on Chicago Horse Racing.”
The articles there will be in the same sphere as what you’ve seen here through the Hawthorne fall meet. In fact, you’ll still see my name, my work, and my picks on this blog space. But the Author recommends that you check there for new articles first, and for things you might not find anywhere else.
Remembering Hal and Hoping For a Payday
The other major stake at Gulfsteam this weekend is the 24th Running of the Hal’s Hope Stakes. Hal’s Hope was a horse that dominated the Gulstream strip highlighted by a win the in 2000 Florida Derby. This year’s race is interesting, as several in the field have had good success over this track. Here’s a read on this year’s edition of the Hal’s Hope.
#1 JACKSON BEND (2-1) –Will be making his 2012 debut trying to win at the distance of a mile for the first time. While he might be better at Six or Seven Furlongs, the race being around one turn will help his chances. While he didn’t run bad in a third place effort in the Breeders’ Cup sprint, taking a short price on a horse off a layoff who took awhile to get in form last season isn’t for me, I will let him beat me.
#2 SKY VENTURE (20-1) – Will have to run his best race and better his best speed figure by ten to have a chance to win here, longshot at best.
#3 SANGAREE (6-1) – This horse is remarkably consistent, always showing up to run. Problem I have backing him is he does not win that often, I can’t see his last win in PPs only having one win in the last two years. I will be using him underneath in exacta and trifectas.
#4 SUCCESSFUL MISSION (3-1) – Appears to be a tough customer on paper but he is another one coming off an extended layoff and has done his best running on the turf. I’m not really sure why they are running him in this spot on the main track.
#5 DECISIVE MOMENT (12-1) – Comes into this race having won a stake on the Delta Jackpot undercard at Delta Downs. He is interesting at a bit of a price but he seems to really only do his best running when on the lead and at Delta Downs. He will have company out there on the lead with him to keep it an honest pace hurting his chances.
#6 OUR DARK KNIGHT (12-1) – Has had success over this track previously which is a positive. He just seems like a cut below of the rest of this field. His speed figures are not as fast in comparison. He might contest for minor awards but tough to endorse to win.
#7 SOARING EMPIRE (4-1) – Returns to defend his title from a year ago and appears to have a good chance to do so. He has won off a layoff before and the workouts shown in program are tremendous. Not only did he win this race last year but also finished 2nd in two other graded stakes here at Gulfstream and running style is ideal. All signs point to him being ready and if he looks relaxed while in paddock and on track he should run huge.
#8 COOL BLUE RED HOT (12-1) – If Cool Blue Red Hot can stay healthy then I think he could have a really big year because he definitely can run a little bit. The problem has been keeping him in form, lots of gaps between running lines. He might need a race and is also cross entered into the Ft. Lauderdale S. as a Main Track Only entry. I will use him underneath and give him a chance at a price with his stalker running style.
#9 WILL’S WILDCAT (10-1) – Appears to be a need the lead type of horse. He does look like the speed of the speed which helps but DECISIVE MOMENT won’t make his job easy. If he runs the same race he did two back he’s got a chance but I think he is up against it.
Selections:
#7 SOARING EMPIRE
#3 SANGAREE
#8 COOL BLUE RED HOT
Good Luck!
High on Grass – Ft. Lauderdale Edition
Race 10 at Gulfstream on Saturday offers a sneak peak into the male turf division for 2012, with the running of the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G3). The weather forecast calls for sunny skies and temps in the 70s, so I’ve handicapped for firm turf. Post time is scheduled for 4:45 ET, so lets take a look at the field.1. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN (15-1) – Word from his connections is that they’ve been looking for a spot to run him on turf, and his pedigree certainly suggests he’ll handle it. The fact that he’s aggressively spotted indicates a high level of confidence that he’ll run well. He adds blinkers and Rajiv Marragh stays on board. If he’s able to work out a good trip from the rail, he could offer some good value in the exotics.
2. SANTIVA (20-1) – Looking like a winner at the top of the stretch in his first race off a six-month layoff and first time over the grass, a move forward makes him a logical contender. That said, he’s a tough to like a horse with only one win in nine starts to his credit, and is often overbet. His pedigree is is heavy on turf influences, but he’s too slow in the speed figure department for me to play aggressively.
3. GUYS REWARD (12-1) – He’s always given a credible showing on turf, but another who just doesn’t win very often. He’ll be running late, but picks up his sixth rider in as many races and simply isn’t a stakes-caliber horse.
4. YUMMY WITH BUTTER (10-1) – He could end up the value play of the race of his last two races where he ran poorly closing out his 2011 campaign over a yielding course at Belmont and sprinting over Tampa’s main track. Looking back at his races over firm turf at Monmouth over the summer, he didn’t run a bad race. He reunites with Paco Lopez, who guided him to two G3 wins over the summer, and he’s got a versatile running style to be a major factor in this spot.
5. MUTUAL TRUST (3-1) – A group one winner in France last year, he makes is first start in the U.S. off a five-month layoff for new trainer Bill Mott. He’s worked steadily at Palm Meadows and on paper looks to be the most logical winner. The problem becomes, you just don’t know how he’s going to take to Gulfstream’s course and U.S. racing, and likely won’t offer much value. I’ll hedge a few bets with him on top, but will look elsewhere for the winner.
6. MAMBO MEISTER (12-1) – Always game, but a completely different horse when not running over Calder’s main track. He’s also never one at the distance and has a bad habit of struggling to pass horses.
7. TEAKS NORTH (8-1) – Ran some excellent turf races last year, but also ran as many clunkers. This is likely the level where he fits best, but the fact that trainer Justin Sallusto couldn’t draw a better rider than Juan Leva is a bit of a concern. He did win the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap in his only race over the course last year, but I think this race is purely a prep to try and repeat, so I’m not expecting very much.
8. FLAT OUT (6-1) – A win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic would have made him a logical contender for Horse of the Year, but now he’s simply trying to regain his credibility. It’s tough to like a one-paced horse that’s never raced on grass and battled health issues his entire career. His lone work over Gulfstream’s turf course was respectable, but he won’t offer much value and will need to show me he can handle grass before I’m a believer.
9. HOLLINGER (8-1) – Roger Attfield and John Velazquez are so dangerous on any turf course, simply because you just never know when a horse that looks overmatched on paper is going to step up and run a huge race. That said, I’m willing to pass on this one, because it seems like he’d prefer shorter distances and hasn’t had a layoff in six months.
10. SILVER MEDALLION (4-1) – Winner of the Tropical Turf Handicap at Calder in December, and in the exacta in five of seven turf races, he looks to be the most logical winner. Anywhere near his morning line odds make him excellent value, but I think he’ll drift down and end up the post time favorite. It took him a while to get good, but he’s in the best form of his career since Pletcher moved him back to turf in October. Castellano is one of the best turf riders in the country and he’s got the best late speed in the field. The race should set up ideally for him, but the outside post is a bit of a concern.
11. HOOFIT (15-1) - A polytrack specialist with less than stellar form on turf in Europe, the distance looks beyond what he wants to run. However, he’s turned in a pair of solid works over the Palm Meadows turf course, and Graham Motion typically spots his horses very well.
12 – KINDERGARDEN KID (12-1) – Interesting to see Julien Leparoux end up here, as he doesn’t ride very often for trainer Barclay Tagg. The horse’s best races have come in allowance/optional claiming company and he’s never started from a post this wide.
Once you look past MUTUAL TRUST and SILVER MEDALLION, the race looks wide open. It shapes up as a great betting race, since many of these offer tremendous value. Gulfstream tends to favor horses on or near the lead, and horses in the outside posts are at a distinct disadvantage. I’m willing to give YUMMY WITH BUTTER the nod, hoping the return to firm turf will get him back on track. He could end up as lone speed, and should work out an ideal trip from the four post.
Hype and underachieving aside, 20-1 on SANTIVA is crazy. He was 9/2 last out and only lost by a neck. if new rider Jesus Castanon times his move a little better, he could be in the mix at the end. TEAK’S NORTH and HOLLINGER are both wild cards. If either run their best race they will certainly in the mix, but the lack of consistency is a bit worrisome and not sure the latter wants this distance.
I’ll use both of the favorites, but lean heavier on SILVER MEDALLION, and use MUTUAL TRUST in some saver exotics. I’ll also use SANTIVA and UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN sparingly underneath.
Picks:
10. SILVER MEDALLION
4. YUMMY WITH BUTTER
7. TEAK’S NORTH
Leave a comment to let me know who you’re playing or let me know on Twitter (@NJDerek). Best of luck with all your wagers.
Are the Best Horseplayers Nihilists?
In many ways the sport of horse racing is a femme fatale; you love its intrinsic beauty and mysterious ways, but you don’t quite trust it, you know it doesn’t love you back, and if you’re not careful, it’ll be your undoing.After betting the races for over two decades I can’t say I know anything about handicapping for certain, but I suspect a lot. Upon reflecting on my exploits as a horseplayer, I offer the following observations, which may or may not be true, that other bettors may find consistent with their own experiences.
- The best races to bet are “obvious” – those races where you have a metaphysical certitude on the outcome of a 9 or higher (on a scale of 1 to 10) . Admittedly, these races are rare, but they do happen (and you’ll know when it does).
- A sure way to screw up an “obvious” race is to over think it and second guess your own skills and instincts.
- Conversely, if you have no earthly clue which horse (or subset of horses) will win a race or how the race will unfold, no amount of staring at the PPs will help.
- The more you play the races, the more cynical you will become – not just about horseracing, but about everything.
- Being a contrarian is one of the greatest talents a horseplayer can possess.
- The more you follow the races, the more all other sports will pale in comparison.
- When you tell someone which horse you think will win, it almost always loses. However, if you buy a stranger a win ticket out of pocket the horse usually wins.
- Someone once said, “If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans.” I’ll add, if you want to make a parimutuel teller laugh, tell him (or her) which horse will win the next race.
- Form your own opinions and never let anyone talk you off a horse you like or let them talk you on a horse you don’t. However, there’s little harm in giving a 2nd look to a horse someone else likes (but you don’t).
- As Aldous Huxley once said, “the more you see the more you know;” watching live races, studying race replays, and making trip notes are foundations for success and allow you to see and know more than most of your fellow bettors.
- Whenever you lose a race, you obviously bet too much; whenever you win, you obviously didn’t bet enough.
- If people that charged money for handicapping tips consistently made money playing the races, they wouldn’t waste time shilling their picks.
- Horseplayers want more people to begin betting the races because they assume amateurs in the pool will improve their ROI (but it probably won’t).
- It’s hard to win money solely by picking winners and betting WPS; playing the exotic pools (exactas, trifectas, Pick Xs) offer tremendous risk/reward opportunities and a chance for long-term profit.
- Putting together collaborative Pick 6 tickets with other horseplayers is only fun when you win (which is of course rare); otherwise, your filled with regret over concessions and comprises.
- Assumptions, biases, false inclinations, and accepting published reports as “gospel” will lead you astray while maintaing total objectivity will lead to handicapping success. However, achieving total objectivity is easier said than done and may ultimately lead to Nihilism.
So, could the best horseplayers be Nihilists? Oh God, I hope not!
Betting Alone While At One With The Universe
Like snowflakes, our thoughts are by nature individualistic and unique. However, within our innate uniqueness, lies an underlying similarity of consciousness – that we alone are the only ones in the universe, the only ones capable of knowing what we know, and feeling how we feel. A sense that is both overpowering and frightening. It’s the reason we feel equally alone in the middle of a crowded stadium or when lying awake at night. Focusing our attention inward we can convince (or deceive) ourselves into believing we have a solipsismal cosmic awareness.How we express our individualistic thoughts comes through in the our likes and dislikes, the clothes we wear, the cars we drive (or do not drive), the music we listen to, the movies we watch, the games we play, and how we play those games.
Yes, humans love to play games and have so for thousands of years. Historians traced the board game Senet back to 3,500 B.C. and it’s a damn sure bet games of some sort existed long before then. Perhaps the cavemen played games, but archeologists have to yet to find Tic Tac Toe grids on cave paintings. But for cavemen survival was the ultimate game which may explain why games to this day exhibit survivalist life and death motifs. Of course, the best games involve a mixture of skill and luck; especially those in which skill can overcome (or amplify) luck – again mirroring life itself.
We all live our lives alone (and will die alone I presume). Our lives are the product of our thoughts, decisions, and the associated consequences even if the impact of our thoughts, decisions, and consequences are shared by others. And we all play games alone. A “team” baseball game is 9 versus 9, but believe me the loneliest person in the world is a man at bat with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth, down 2 runs with runners on second and third (the predicament faced by the “mighty Casey”). The second loneliest person may be the pitcher. If Football is your sport it may be the quarterback, or the wide receiver, or the field goal kicker. For Soccer, the goalie.
Or the horseplayer.
It’s his thoughts, his strategy, his money, and his reward (if “he” wins). The venerable horseplayer is the ‘man in the arena’ Teddy Roosevelt so eloquently described at the Sorbonne.
Despite suffering disdain, ridicule, or even pity, horseplayers persevere by employing their varying strategies, skills, and abilities. As horseracing’s lifeblood, they constitute a vibrant tapestry within a sport loaded with vibrant tapestries. And for horseplayers who go to the track with other horseplayers (there must be some), it remains a uniquely personal experience. The journey, the experiences, the treasures gambled, won, lost, and won again are uniquely theirs. A clear reflection of a desire to challenge oneself, risk of oneself, and rely upon one’s own wits and other God-given talents.
And anyone who believes modern life is more exciting than in the year 1,000 A.D., 3,500 B.C., or even during the time of the cavemen must not have experienced suffocating traffic after a 12 hour ball breaking workday. But when we play the races, those thrilling moments when we risk something of ourselves, we exist completely alone amidst our fellow horseplayers. And we commune with the spirits of our predecessors who live forever in our hopes, dreams, and games.
Two Bucks To Show: More Than a Wager
Meet Mark Kerber. Mr. Kerber is the manager of the racing syndicate Two Bucks To Show, LLC.. In this telephone interview, WirePlayers introduces you to him, his stable, and his horses. You can find the syndicate on Youtube.WP: Tell the readers about Two Bucks To Show, LLC. What’s your role with it? Is it a public syndicate?
[Stable colors image courtesy HorseRacingNation.]
MK: I’m manager of the syndicate. There are thirteen members total and we have three horses. It’s a mostly friends-and-family operation, composed of co-workers and relatives. But because we’re a small, primarily recreational operation and we’re doing it mostly for fun, we’ve kept membership to an invitational basis.
WP: How did you become involved in horse racing?
MK: My father is a breeder [He bred and owned GENTLEMAN CHESTER, the runner up in the 2009 G3 Arlington Handicap and winner of two Illinois-bred stakes], and I grew up around racing. There’s even a winners’ circle family picture of me at Ellis Park when I was six or seven years old. By the time I was in fourth grade, I was into pool calculations. I’ve been in racing for literally my whole life, starting in Iowa and Nebraska. My summer jobs as a teen were on the Nebraska circuit. I also spent summers working for Lee Eaton. And between college and law school, I worked for a year under Frank Whiteley.
WP: And how did you get involved with horse ownership?
MK: The very first horse I owned a piece of was a $2500 claimer named MR LS on the Nebraska circuit. We won a race with him and lost him on a claim. TWO ROYAL was an Illinois-bred that I owned after law school. He won a couple of allowances and ended his life as a stable pony. Though we gave him away, we had a lot of fun with him.
WP: Of all the horses you’ve had a role in, what was your favorite horse and/or favorite moment as an owner?
MK: As an owner, winning the 2010 Lincoln Heritage Stakes at Arlington with CUMULONIMBLE. And she’s a favorite in the stable.
WP: What horses do you currently own? Who trains them and where will they run?
MK: We have a stable of three horses.
Our first one is CUMULONIMBLE. She’s a five year old mare [also bred by Mark’s father] trained by Wayne Catalano. [She was the 2009 Illinois Older Female Turf Horse of the Year.] She has six wins and eleven money finishes in thirteen starts. She’s currently in training at Gulfstream Park right now [She worked at Gulfstream on December 12, five furlongs breezing on dirt in 1:01, according to Equibase]. It’s up to Catalano, as she’ll run either at Gulfstream or maybe at Tampa Bay Downs. Because she will be a six-year-old, we’ll use what spots we have judiciously.
CUMULONIMBLE winning the 2010 Lincoln Heritage Stakes on grass at Arlington Park. Photo courtesy of Bloodhorse
Our second one is EURONFIRE. She’s a three year old filly trained also by Wayne Catalano. She popped a splint after breaking her maiden at Keeneland. She’s been taken out of training and is residing at Keeneland with Catalano’s assistant. She could run at Turfway (since she’s a Kentucky-Bred) or at Hawthorne. [She’s eligible for a N1X allowance.]
EURONFIRE winning at first asking at Keeneland. Photo courtesy of Coaty Photography
EURONFIRE winning at Keeneland. [Video courtesy of Trakus Racing/Youtube.]
Our third one is GAMES BEGIN. He’s an unraced two year old Illinois-bred and he won’t race until he is three. We don’t have a trainer for him yet. However, he’s in training at a training center in Kentucky. He’s a late maturing horse we may try to start once at the end of Hawthorne [Spring] but likely will start at Arlington. We’ll start him whenever he’s ready.
WP: How did your syndicate do in 2011?
MK: We had nothing going on. It was a tough year. CUMULONIMBLE came out of training in 2010 and hurt her pelvis. We had to stop on her, turn her out, and we almost had her ready for a start in May. EUROFIRE was in training at two and we wanted to run her earlier at three. She had a minor stress fracture when she was in training as a three year old and before she ran at Keeneland. But it was nice to make a start with her and win at Keeneland.
WP: What plans do you have for 2012?
MK: We hope to have three good horses running at Arlington Park, my home track. We’re looking forward to running there this summer. However we’ll possibly retire CUMULONIMBLE at some point this year because of her age and because she could be a broodmare prospect.
Look for CUMULONIMBLE at Gulfstream/Tampa Bay, EURONFIRE at Turfway/Hawthorne, and GAMES BEGIN in the maiden ranks this spring at Hawthorne/Arlington. Good Luck to the three-horse stable of Two Bucks To Show.
[Acknowledgments for images and media as given above. Special thanks to Mr. Kerber.]
Block Takes Top Two Spots in Edgar Futurity
STICKNEY/CICERO — Three Chris Block trained horses appeared in the 33rd Jim Edgar Futurity, with YANKEE DEALER the betting favorite among the three. But the fastest closer was the winner, and it was REAL POWER, piloted by Florent Geroux on a cold clear evening.TWELVE HUNDRED, the 9-10 favorite and recipient of late money, went to the lead as predicted in this 1 1/16 mile juvenile test. He carved out slow fractions of :25, :50, 1:14 while leading from the start. TWELVE HUNDRED remained in front through the backstretch run.
Rider Inez Karlsson of TWELVE HUNDRED also noted the soft fractions on the front end to Chicago Barn to Wire. “I got pretty soft fractions in the beginning and I thought I gave the horse a good shot to win.” She remarked that the extra distance and a track positively favoring closers may have done in her mount.
But with each possessing a nice closing kick, the Block pair of YANKEE DEALER and REAL POWER were the ones who passed TWELVE HUNDRED after the swung for home. Coming into the stretch, rider Eddie Perez and YANKEE DEALER had first run on the front runners. But entering today as a maiden, REAL POWER, piloted by Florent Geroux, had the fastest closing punch, rallying outside of YANKEE DEALER. When they crossed under the wire, it was REAL POWER who got in front. Final winning margin was one length and final time was 1:47.40 for the 1 1/16 miles. He paid $12.60 to win as the 5-1 third choice in the wagering.
“He ran good. I got soft fractions.” said Eduardo Perez, rider of YANKEE DEALER, the runner up.
The 4-6 all Block exacta paid $40.40 for two dollars, the 4-6-5 trifecta paid $108.60 for two dollars, and the 4-6-5-2 superfecta paid $629 for two dollars.
Geroux rode the second half of the late double in addition to his win in the feature.
***
Special thanks to Hawthorne’s Assistant General Manager, Jim Miller(@hawthornejim) and Chicago Barn to Wire’s Janine Starykowicz for considerations with this afternoon.
Wintering with Juvenile Statebreds Part 2
Born in Oklahoma in 1946, Jim Edgar served two terms in the 1990s as Governor of Illinois. Governor Edgar is a rare species: an honest Illinois politician, as the Prairie State would then have two consecutive governors who each have faced criminal charges and prison sentences. He maintained and left office with favorable approval ratings.Gov. Edgar served on the board of Youbet.com and has been an active campaigner for programs (such as alternative gaming) that better the health of racing in Illinois. He also has bred and raced horses in Illinois (although he has, unfortunately, sought richer purses in bordering states in recent years).
This week’s feature, the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity, is the male complement of last week’s race. Like the Whitworth, it’s a sneak peak at tomorrow’s state-bred stars. Like the Whitworth, it’s restricted to Illinois-Bred two-year-olds and carries a $100K purse. Let’s meet the field.
Hawthorne — Race 8 — 8.5F — Post time 6:17 ET
#1, STRONGEST LINK. Broke his maiden at first asking across town at Arlington. In his second start, he was behind Feels Like Flying, the Showtime Deb runner-up in a first level turf allowance. Last time he ran evenly in the back of the pack in the Royal Glint, a $60K route on turf. While rider C. Roman has been riding well this meet, and he comes from the steady C. Block barn, this one was regressing speed figures and has never won past five and one-half furlongs. Looking elsewhere.
#2, PRINCE CHEVAL. It took him five tries to graduate, but he finally got the job done last time out in a statebred maiden special weight. He has tangled with some decent two year olds in his earlier starts (Sweet Luca, Here Comes Frazier). Today however will be first time going a route of ground and in stakes company. Trainer has one win in nine Hawthorne starts, two wins in twenty-seven starts this year. Both wins have come with Lantz riding (who rides here), but that makes for team stats south of ten percent, and a rider south of ten percent. There’s a pulse, but it’s faint.
#3, BLING KING. The first of two trained by Jim DiVito. During the Arlington meet, DiVito sent out two year old winners in almost half of the races. He’s hitting at 20% for the meet, 26% for the year, and 39% with juveniles. Last time he tried allowance company and a route, and was only a length behind fellow entrant YANKEE DEALER after leading most of the way. In all his races, he’s been on the front end but only once been able to take them start to finish. I question his ability to pass horses, but he has hit the trifecta in all five of his races and has two wins: one at first asking and one two back in an N2L claimer. Minor awards.
#4, REAL POWER. Recall from last week’s post that maidens can jump up and snag these late-season stakes. Here’s a maiden, but he’s finished second three times in his five career starts. Each one of his starts has been around two turns, be it a mile on the grass at either Arlignton or Hawthorne or a mile and seventy yards on the Hawthorne dirt. Trained by C. Block (>20% in most categories) and ridden by the meet’s leader, F. Geroux. He’s a one-run closer, so he’ll need upfront pace to set up his rally. The upfront speed is likely. One of the ones.
#5, TWELVE HUNDRED. He was the buzz horse before the G3 Arlington Washington Futurity, based on DiVito’s success with two year old runners, his purchase price (hint: the name), and his eight length win going a two-turn mile in Iowa. When going one turn in that polytrack G3, he was up close to a moderate pace before going backwards in the stretch. Last time out he was the focus of a late win plunge of $50K in the win pool that sunk his odds to 1-9. He was up close to a fast pace and then went backwards in the stretch again, sinking the win money plungers. Perhaps going back to two turns dictating the pace will help, but he isn’t going to have a free lunch on the front end. While DiVito (this is his second of two runners) is strong with juveniles, his percentages plummet the higher up the class ladder. Worth taking a stand against.
#6, YANKEE DEALER. The third and final entrant trained by Chris Block, and this one is brought to you by the Tarra Trust (who own Giant Oak). He’ll have Block’s first-call rider, Eddie Perez, in the saddle. His first two starts on polytrack featured awful speed figures and no wins. When stretched out to two turns and put the dirt, the speed figures and placings improved. He graduated two back in open company in the mud and won a statebred first-level allowance. A stalker, I like the fact he won with two different pace scenarios. Win pick.
#7, SHELLYS WILD. The first of two runners trained by Michael Reavis. Here’s another that has yet to get the picture taken. Trainer and team stats are solid. His two starts featured him close to paces and then getting passed turning for home. The pace scenario won’t be kind to him, however. It’s possible that he’s used as a rabbit to set up his entry mate and stable mate, but why would Reavis’s first-call rider get back aboard the one with the least advantageous pace scenario? Mixed feelings and low unders at best.
#8, HERE COMES MARIO. The second of two runners trained by Reavis. Another runner with zero wins. Although Reavis is a solid juvenile trainer, he’s using C. Castro (7% wins at Hawthorne) as his pilot for the first time. He’s routed in all five of his career starts. This one will come off the pace, but the closest he’s been to the diploma is third position, or fourth beaten a length. I won’t argue with those that use him as a low unders candidate, but I don’t think today is the day he gets the one-up, defeats the evil boss, and moves on to the next level.
#9, LAKOTA WOLF. Another horse with a donut in the win column. After showing a minor bit of closing kick in three prior starts, Geroux placed him closer to the pace last out in a route. He got a minor award while moving up to open company. Rider downgrade to Q. Hamilton, speed figures have been nothing to get excited over, and he showed his best when close to a pace. Doubtful.
Selections:
#6 YANKEE DEALER (7/2)
#4 REAL POWER (9/2)
#3 BLING KING (5/1)
Longshot: He’s never tried a route, but he did get a win on the dirt last time. Given a pace that could be hot on the front with two DIVito runners winging it on the engine, closer #2 PRINCE CHEVAL (12/1) has a good chance if the pace is strong as projected. While he’s never been a route, his pedigree (Leroidesanimaux X Navajo Princess, out of Alphabet Soup) suggests a route won’t be out of his league. Odds should hold, given the the presence of the three >20% trainers.
Be sure to check out the author’s twitter feed (@heylaserbeam), for on-the-scene happenings from the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity at Hawthorne. You can also check us out on Facebook and on twitter (@wireplayers) for spot plays from Hollywood to Gulfstream and everywhere in between. Good luck!
Wintering with Juvenile Statebreds Part 1
Patricia (Pat) A. Wentworth (1936-2011) served for many years as an executive board member of the Illinois Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Foundation, ITBOF, (www.itbof.net), a “not-for-profit service corporation, representing Illinois breeders and owners and dedicated to the growth and development of the Illinois state-bred incentive program for Thoroughbreds.”
While President of the ITBOF board, the Illinois Debutante was renamed in her honor in 2003. Restricted to state-breds, it offers a $100,000 purse and a peek at the future stars of the statebred ranks. Let’s meet the field.
Hawthorne — Race 7 — 8.5F — Post time 5:46 ET
#1, LADY DEBRA JANE. The first of the field’s three maidens. It’s not unheard of for a maiden to jump up and win these early-winter events, but this one would need to jump and leap. Two career starts, two tries on Hawthorne dirt, two poor efforts. She seemed to run better when there was pace to attack. I think the pace today won’t be that quick, plus she’s jumping from Statebred Maidens up to the stakes level. Trainer is average, but rider Eddie Razo (normally an above average rider) has been dreadful this meet. Nope.
#2, DIVA’S DIAMOND. Another one looking for win numero uno. Another horse closing off the pace. This one looks more promising with a second two back in statebred company and a third last out in open company. That last race looks better, as she was wide on the turns. Works are respectable but not spectacular. This is another that would pace help, but I like that this one can pass horses and has cashed checks. Not the best chance, but not hopeless.
#3, CANTAFFORDANOTHER. I liked her as a crazy longshot two back in the Showtime Deb, but that day she got stuck at the back of the pack and couldn’t close off a very fast pace (:21 ? opening quarter). She ran much better in the first half of the race last time in a route, when was up close to the pace and back in statebred allowance company. However, she slowed to a crawl in the stretch. Blinkers come off and a rider switch to Quincy Hamilton are here. Yet you have to wonder about her ability to route and her ability to pass. Doubtful.
#4, LION D N A. Maiden number three. This filly was on the lead in a very slow-paced statebred maiden route two back, fading in the stretch. Last out she pressed a more legitimate pace. Again, she faded down the lane. There’s a rider switch from Geroux to Thornton, which perhaps could work. On the other hand, the trainer stats are nothing to get excited over. Neither is the rider switch. Despite a route-friendly pedigree and the lateral rider switch, I’m taking a stand against.
#5, SWEET DE BARAN. She’s a closer who came alive on the dirt three back at Mountaineer in the mud. Last time out, she got a fast pace to chase in the Showtime Deb and was beaten a length while going off at 32-1. Two back in the slop she had a more sensible pace to follow behind and still got a check. The pace won’t be in her favor today, but she did go wire to wire in her win. Sometimes statebred form is fleeting, and this one has never routed, but I’ll give her a chance.
#6, OUR DOMAIN. She has a win around two turns, the only one in the field. And her trainer is 20% with two year olds. When Becker/Emigh moved over from Hoosier, they brought along a team that had been hitting at a square percentage. It all adds up to a logical horse and a deserving morning line favorite. However, her this is her first time outside of Maiden Special Weights. More concerning is that her ability to pass, which I think is very dubious. The lack of pace and forward placing make her solid and all the positives make her a contender. She’s logical and she’ll be in my exacta. But I won’t concede the race to her.
#7, CLASS BREAK. Winner of the Showtime Deb stakes last October when she passed them all in the stretch to take that $100K stakes. The third place finisher that day returned to win. Two back she was in the same zip code as Blue Forty, a stakes-placed filly. A concern with her is that she’s never routed. However, her pedigree (Sunday Break X Markofclass) suggests a route isn’t out of her scope. Top rider Geroux takes the call, half of the solid Jockey/Trainer team that’s hitting in the 20-30 percent range. The training half is Wayne Catalano, who isn’t as hot here (17 percent wins) as he would be at Arlington. Three back in a poly sprint across town she was closer to the pace that day, and she got the diploma. Likeable.
Selections:
#7 CLASS BREAK (9/2)
#6 OUR DOMAIN (2/1)
#2 DIVA’S DIAMOND (7/2)
Longshot: She won’t be 32-1 this time, but #5 SWEET DE BARAN (8/1) should be a juicy price. I like this one’s tactical ability in a race that may turn up slow on paper. Note that her trainer that is 3-30 (with ten additional times in the money) and a $3.91 ROI.
It may be a cold, wintry day at Hawthorne. But it will be a warm day for racing fans. Hawthorne has two other allowances on the Saturday card. The Sunday card features a pair of interesting allowances. Meanwhile Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park both open their doors for their winter racing meets this weekend.
Don’t forget to look for spot plays on Twitter (@wireplayers) and Facebook all weekend. Good luck!
Aqueduct’s Inner Track Meet
Today officially starts the winter racing season in New York as the action moves from the Main Track to the Inner Track at Aqueduct. While the big stakes and turf racing on the New York calendar are behind us, there are still reasons to look forward to the 84 day Inner Track meeting. Below are some things to consider when playing Aqueduct this winter.- Race Distances – The racing program is comprised mostly of races at 6 Furlongs, 1 Mile and 1 Mile & 70 yards. Not to mention the same horses run in those same races over and over so it’s easier to get an idea of how the race is going to develop and who has a shot to win.
- “Horse for Course” – is one that works from time to time but is particularly stronger over this surface due to the unique track composition. No matter how poor a horse’s form may be entering the race, the inner track can move them up drastically. Some horses really like the surface while others flat out hate it.
- Inside Posts – Where the Start / Finish line is, horses on the inside have an advantage on two turn races because the run up to the clubhouse turn is so soon.
- Jockeys – Due to the nature of the surface it can be tricky to navigate; regular riders such as Cornelio Velasquez, David Cohen and Ramon Dominguez are proven and win a majority of the races this time of year.
- Grand Slam Wager – While it may not pay off as big as some other multi race wagers, it is a great wager that really caters to the player and is not available at other venues.
Good Luck!
Hawthorne’s Post-Thanksgiving Leftovers
The biggest event at Hawthorne this weekend doesn’t take place on the track. Rather, Hawthorne will hold a qualifier to the NTRA/DRF National Handicapping Challenge. The event also serves as the final leg of a meet-long handicapping series. Players will spend their race days looking to turn one hundred dollars into one of the event’s ten guaranteed Las Vegas spots for the event. For full rules see here.Both days of the weekend feature ho-hum cards. Perhaps some plays on the Saturday Hawthorne program could lead to contest success.
Hawthorne — Race 1 — Illinois-Bred Maiden Special Weight (MSW) — 6F — Post Time 1:40 CT
The pick to win is SLIGO BREEZE. I know this is a trainer that’s zero-for-thirteen with first time starters with a seven percent rider taking the call. The upsides are there, however. The dam has one winner from three starts, and the rest of the field looks like as appetizing as stale pumpkin pie. Of the experienced runners, LA TIA looks best. She checks in with two thirds in two career starts. It’s very possible this one found a soft field and today is graduation day. It’s also possible this one has learned how to burn tickets. There looks to be enough on-paper pace to set up THUNDERING HOOFS. Trainer is 18% on the meet, 19% second off layoffs, half of a good team. The shorter field and inside post should help this filly here.
#3 SLIGO BREEZE (8/1)
#5 LA TIA (9/5)
#4 THUNDERING HOOFS (6/1)
Longshot: I think I have a better chance with some of that stale pumpkin pie.
Hawthorne — Race 8 — $5,000 N2Y Claimer — 6.5F — Post TIme 5:17 PM CT
Nearly every Hawthorne card this kind of a race: a $5K claimer. Which also happens to be the lowest levels of claimers on the grounds. And we have an overflow field. LITTLEBROWNROAD hails from the 21% Berndt barn and the team has done well at Hawthorne. The downside on him is that he’s developed a case of seconditis this year, with six of them out of the eight starts he’s made this year. However he has a win and a third to go with six seconds, and has banked $172K lifetime the hard way, picking up checks in low budget claimers and while avoiding Arlington. Not bad at all. RUN WITH EAGLES won last time in an N1Y over the local oval. He’s made three starts in his career at Hawthorne, with a win, a third, and a bad break forgiving him in the last one. RADAR MAN won in the summer at Indiana Downs for more than three times today’s price. Last time he plunged to the N2Y level, a clear cut second behind a four-length winner. Cuts back to a sprint, and has four thirds in nine starts this year. Maybe the distance cutback puts him back on the beam.
#7 LITTLEBROWNROAD (3/1)
#8 RUN WITH EAGLES (6/1)
#12 RADAR MAN (5/1)
Longshot: Let’s try the new face among the gang, with #13 CAP’N FELIX (8/1). He’s on the Also Eligible list so he’ll need aid to get in the field, but he won an N1Y claimer two back at Mountaineer while hitting the board about half the time at Ohio and West Virginia tracks. Think the Mountaineer form holds up and maybe the new surroundings will be helpful.
Hawthorne — Race 9 — $5,000 N3L Claimer — 6.5F — Post TIme 5:48 PM CT
Another spin on the basement-level claiming wheel. SPREAD THE CHIPS, since been taken off the pace and getting Tanner Riggs to ride, has reeled off two victories in a row after trolling around in basement level $10K Maiden Claimers. Riggs stays aboard for a team that spots a sparkling ROI. CART’S GLITTER, if not for a horrible break four back at Hoosier, would likely have checks in all his starts. Do note he is a front runner who has the passing skills of a parked car. However he has two seconds in both his Hawthorne starts. MAGIC MAN double drops to the bottom level after two starts for double the price. The trainer is 20% on the double drop and the choice of Inez Karlsson, fresh off maternity leave, puts this once closer to the pace, tactics that led were led to wins during Hawthorne’s spring meet meet and across town at Arlington.
#11 SPREAD THE CHIPS (8/1)
#4 CART’S GLITTER (4/1)
#10 MAGIC MAN (6/1)
Longshot: He cleared the N2L condition via disqualification, but #6 JAUN DE LA PLAYA is a new face in a group where some runners seem to have permanent residency. In three career dirt starts he has two wins (one via DQ). The pace should be honest, if not a touch slow, and I like the switch to Cisco Torres, who should be able to keep him in the hint. Not often you see a son of Street Cry in a bottom level N3L at Hawthorne.
From the Hollywood Turf Festival to the Aqueduct HolidayFest to Churchill’s Stars of Tomorrow II to the opening of Fair Grounds, there’s plenty of quality racing beyond the local sphere. Among the out-of-town stake races, I’ll be rooting for the home team with NEVER RETREAT in her career finale in the G1 Matriarch at Hollywood on Friday.
Be sure to check out Twitter and Facebook for updates all through the holiday weekend. Good Luck!
