Bet Hard
Case in point: last Friday’s Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs. As some may know, I’ve been high on Blame the past few months. I was impressed with his fast finish in the Super Derby and his easy victory in the Fayette Stakes. This horse clearly has talent and is in great form.
In the Clark I loved Blame’s chances despite facing top older handicappers like Bullsbay, Macho Again, and Einstein in a full field of 14. So much that I rushed home Friday after staying overnight Thursday several hours away.
Thankfully I got back in time to bet without getting any speeding tickets.
I put Blame on top of exactas and trifectas with Etched, Misremembered, and Dubious Miss. However, I hedged my bets by also putting Etched and Misremembered over Blame as well. Hedging is a good play when you’re not certain who’s gonna win. However, in this case it increased the cost of the total bet and limited the combinations I could economically cover underneath.
With a strong opinion on the race winner, wasting money on a hedge play was self-defeating. And to be perfectly honest, if Blame didn’t win, I’d rather not win any money at all (well, . . . maybe).
As it was, Blame went off at 9/2 odds (which we’ll likely never see again) and ran a huge race — one of the more impressive victories all year.
The exacta with Misremembered paid $129. Not bad, but the big payouts were in the trifecta ($1,398) and superfecta ($18,613!) pools which I missed by not covering Einstein and Giant Oak underneath.
These logical plays would’ve turned hundreds into thousands. It’s also the difference between being a good handicapper and a good bettor.
Having a strong opinion can be a rare thing. It’s like a secret that only you know. So when it happens, take a stand and don’t hedge your bets. ”Bet hard” on your top choice and go deeper underneath if needed.
So lesson learned – next time I see that shining light like a beacon in the night – I’ll be humming a tune by Dewey Cox. But instead of “walk hard,” it will be “bet hard, . . . hard.”
04 December 2009, 6:08 pm
I agree completely! One of the worst feelings you can get as a horse player is when you get an “instinct” on a horse before a race (especially a long shot) then discard that in favor of a more respected horse. Then you get slapped in the face when your “instinct” horse roars home first!
Good post, I really enjoyed reading this!
05 December 2009, 6:23 pm
Thanks Brian. I’m familiar with the feeling you described. Sometimes you just “know” – know what I mean? And when that happens you gotta stand behind your opinion, despite what others think, and bet with confidence.