Handicapping the Holy Bull (G3)
The KY Derby prep season starts in earnest today with two graded stakes – the Holy Bull at Gulfstream and the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds.These races are vitally important to owners and trainers trying to get enough graded stakes earnings to make it Louisville. For handicappers looking to cash a big ticket on Derby day, the preps provide insights on potential contenders.
The Holy Bull has people excited for good reason. The nine-horse field is deep; featuring six vote getters from the world renowned WirePlayers Derby Dozen poll and headlined by 7th ranked Jackson Bend.
I like William’s Kitten. He was ranked #6 on my vote, just ahead of Jackson Bend. He’s got great connections with trainer Michael Maker and Eclipse winning jockey Julien Leparoux. I checked the polling results and noticed that William’s Kitten’s only votes were from me so we’ll find out if I was on to something, or on something.
Thank U Phillipe might run well too. He’s only got one win in eight tries, but he’s faced stiff competition; notably Buddy’s Saint, Eskendereya, Homeboykris, and Jackson Bend. I like the 2nd off the layoff angle along with the blinkers. Starting from the one-hole, he should get out front early so it depends on how he finishes. The workouts are solid and jockey Eddie Castro can handle his business.
Homeboykris is talented, but don’t care for the Remsen when he finished up the track, or the layoff for that matter. Jackson Bend is a threat as well, but might get a wide trip from the 9th post.
Winslow Homer will get lots of support and he should. He’s training well, only carrying 116 pounds, has Dominquez riding, Tony Dutrow training, and the highest speed figure at the distance. But his wins came over wet tracks and his last race was two months ago. Add to this Dutrow’s luke warm comments about the Holy Bull in a recent interview: ”The Holy Bull is not a big deal for me, Mr. Porter or Winslow Homer. A one-turn mile is not what Homer wants.” Of course, brother Dick would be speculating about many lengths he’d win by . . .
So I’ll build my betting strategy around William’s Kitten and Thank U Phillipe. Am I worried about Aikenite, Winslow Homer, Piscitelli, Litigation Risk, Jackson Bend, and Homeboykris? Hell yes!
But to win in this game you gotta take a stand.
Holy Bull Selections:
1) William’s Kitten (8-1); 2) Thank U Phillipe (8-1); 3) Aikenite (4-1)
Lecomte Selections:
1) Turf Melody (7/2); 2) Maximus Ruler (4-1); 3) Callide Valley (10-1)
