Hey You, Here’s Derby Dozen Volume II
Loaded down with insights like a lead balloon, here’s Volume II of the WirePlayers Derby Dozen. Despite the similar title, this isn’t a low-rent rip-off of Steve Haskin’s “Derby Dozen”. Although Haskin does a fine job, we’ve assembled a diverse collection of ten bloggers, twitterers, and horseplayers from around the country to weigh in on the Derby preps.Hopefully you’ll find a few pearls of wisdom, but then again there’s no guarantee. So checkout our ranking of the top 12 Derby contenders and let us know if we’re full of it, or not.
Special thanks to the Derby Dozen panel who’ve taken time out of their busy lives to offer their perspectives. Voting members:
Rob from Amateurcapper
Brian from Railrunner
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
Jessica Paquette
The Turk
Dylan Jarmulowicz
The Zipster from Zipse at the Track
Norm from The Knight Sky Racing blog
Steve from WirePlayers.com
04 February 2010, 3:41 pm
There is a horse waiting in the wings to make his talent known, but he is an Oklahoma bred (but wasn’t KIP DEVILLE an Oklahoma bred too?) so no one is paying attention. He finished second in the SMARTY JONES at Oaklawn where the two turn mile with the short stretch configutration worked against his late closing style. He only made up about twenty lengths and was beaten less than three for all of it. His name is PLEASANT STORM and his female family is nothing to scoff at including a dam by Stormin Fever (i.e. Northern Dancer through Storm Bird and Storm Cat), Mr. Prospector, Hail to Reason and Seattle Slew), his dosage and CD are perfect for the Derby-Belmont. Need I say more? He will probably run in the Southwest this weekend and does not need to win it to move forward. Crafty trainer too…assistant with hands all over Alysheba in 1987. Take a look.
04 February 2010, 8:25 pm
Thanks Joel, that’s great information! I’ll keep an eye out for Pleasant Storm and try to watch the Smarty Jones Stakes one more time. BTW, I could be wrong, but I believe the Southwest Stakes is next weekend.
04 February 2010, 9:36 pm
Hey Joel–I’ve been doing a Derby Dozen for years and although Blind Luck is my top pick, I did put Pleasant Storm on my list the week before last. As you said, he has the pedigree and was a strong second behind the winning Dryfly, who probably ran as far as he can.
05 February 2010, 1:26 am
I hadn’t even noticed Pleasant Storm to be honest, I’ll have to watch him in the Southwest, thanks for the heads-up.
Why is it that the only horse to scratch off the list is the one my comment made! (:
05 February 2010, 4:15 am
BA,
It’s the curse of UNBRIDLED’S SONG. Why can’t Porter get it through his head, this sire’s progeny are gifted with natural ability and are brilliantly fast (as he was) but they need synthetics or grass at two and three, but most importantly…TIME!
05 February 2010, 4:16 am
Who is this Pleasant Storm…I’m checking it out right now!
05 February 2010, 4:41 am
Joel,
Going back through his pedigree, looks more like turf on his dam side. Troubling that he started the Smarty Jones w/ front wraps. What do you make of the slow time? Made up just under seven lengths from he 1/2 mile mark to the wire which means a final 1/2 in around :52 3/5. His RP sprint stakes win was decent time, but he ran down nothing (1-2-3 at the 1/2 mile started at 51-1, 11-1, and 141-1).
The water gets much deeper from here out…G.1 winner DUBLIN makes his 2010 debut off a bullet 6f workout recently. One thing’s certain…you’ll get a price on PS.
Have fun following him and the other 3y.o.’s.
05 February 2010, 11:57 am
Amateurcapper-
I remember you talking about Unbridled Song’s offspring right after the Holy Bull, pointing out that the vast majority tend to get sidelined/retired with injuries. I guess you were right.
05 February 2010, 2:13 pm
Rob:(Amateurcapper)
As the old saying goes, time only counts in jail. Normally I would share your concerns about the splits in the Smarty Jones to some degree, but on the day of the Smarty Jones the track at Oaklawn was very deep in addition to being officially rated as “good”. You may recall there had been a couple of freeze/thaw cycles and the surface had been reworked extensively without the luxury of time to allow the track to settle and compact. It is true that the water gets much deeper form this point forward, but this colt has only had three starts and has a license to improve with more experience and longer routes. The Southwest next weekend (Steve, you are right about the date) presents the same challenge as the Smarty Jones in that the track configuration (with the start finish at what is usually the sixteenth pole) makes it tough on closers. As to your pedigree comments, Pleasant Tap was one of the most versatile racehorses of his generation, finishing a very fast closing second in the BC Sprint and a solid second in the BC Classic. (In the spirit of full disclosure, I bred to him and have a three-year-old filly getting ready to make her first start this spring so I am partial to him and am rooting for the success of his progeny,for obvious reasons.) He has been a solid turf and dirt sire. The female family looks like it has some turf sire bias, but that is counter balanced by the Mr. Prospectoer on the tail female line and by the fact that the Native Dancer filly Native Street won the Kentucky Oaks and four other stakes on the dirt. I wouldn’t let the otherwise turf appearing female family or the front wraps bother you (although I think Pleasant Storm would certainly be a likely candidate for turf races in the future) since he has already demonstrated his ability on dirt. You raise good points and they are appreciated. As for the Pletcher horses you like, they look like the usual suspects, but success in the TC races has been elusive for Mr. Pletcher with one notable exception…his remarkable filly in the Belmont. That was really a head scratcher.
05 February 2010, 8:11 pm
Brian,
Sometimes it sucks to be right…I really liked WINSLOW HOMER’s win in the Holy Bull. Sat behind horses, split horses, finished well.
I’ve studied this sire extensively and it seems to me that UNBRIDLED’S SONG when crossed with a dam from a Northern Dancer line damsire seems to produce the most infirm juveniles and sophomores by him. WIth time and grass, THORN SONG (21 starts) and UNRIDLED SYDNEY (24 starts) won stakes from age 4 and beyond; the former became a G.1 wiinner at 5, the latter won stakes at 4,5, and 6.
05 February 2010, 8:17 pm
Joel, Amcap,
Thanks for the insightful comments re Pleasant Storm’s pedigree. I watched the Smarty Jones replay a few times and he rallied well the last 3 furlongs and was closing fast. And Matt’s right, Dryfly didn’t look like he could’ve run one step over a mile.
Brian, re: Winslow Homer – how do you think Tony Dutrow & Ramon Dominguez feel? As far as I know, he was their best chance at getting to Louisville w/ a contender. Of course, I’m sure Ramon will have a mount come May 1st but it might be on one of Sheik Mo’s coming in from Dubai.
05 February 2010, 8:22 pm
Joel,
IMO, time does matter…good horses can make a slow strip look average and a great horse makes the slow track look good. Do you know how that mile time compared with other times that day?
You make a compelling case and I certainly will notice him in the Southwest.
05 February 2010, 10:52 pm
I’m liking American Lion a lot. I know many don’t think he is as impressive as Tiz Chrome, off his last, but he won it on cruise control. On my blog I have two pics of him up. One in the winners circle where he stands with his ears pricked head high. He looked anything but tired. The second one is taken at the wire, where he has his ears again, pricked, showing he was well within himself. If they can get him to mature a bit and keep running once he makes the lead I think he’s the best in Cali.
05 February 2010, 10:57 pm
While we are talking Unbridled song, what does everyone think of a Unbridled song mare crossing with Curlin??? Curlin was both brilliant and sturdy, but was not overly agile or athletic. The Unbridled Song would take off some of that extra bulk and replace it with the speed and agility that Curlin lacked. Curlin, could add the soundness needed to the line, plus when you have to sires that were both brilliant, imagine how brilliant the foal will be.
06 February 2010, 1:21 am
LDP,
Hopefully those much smarter than me in pedigrees will weigh in on your Unbridled Song / Curlin question. Joel? Rob?
Re: American Lion – I like him too. Even though he didn’t win by much in the H-wood Prevue, the Lion did what was needed and seemed in control the whole way.
I also like Dave in Dixie. I expect him to be running hard late. Hasn’t raced in a while but finished 2 lengths behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk on same surface & distance. Haven’t heard much chatter about him so he may be a price play on top or underneath Am Lion in the Exotics.
06 February 2010, 7:46 pm
LDP,
The hypothetical foal for a CURLIN and UNBRIDLED ELAINE mating would be inbred to Mr. Prospector in the 3rd generation of the sire line and 5th generation of the dam line (3S x 5D). The Mr. P. sire line are notorious for te same coformation flaws and unsoundness that plagued Mr. P’s racing career. His brilliant speed and the brilliance handed down to his offspring during the breeding focus toward speed and precocity is part of what ails offspring of Unbridled’s Song.
Whether 3×5 is far enough back to mute those infirmities is a answer to a multi-million dollar question. Some others feel that outcrosses (no common ancestors in at least first 5 generation) take away from the brilliance but I have a friend that thinks it’s the key to the future of horse racing.
Curlin must first prove that without steroids, will his offspring be able to stay like he did when he was on them. Clearly, he wasn’t the same colt at 4 after his clean, brilliant run in the Dubai World Cup. Outran his genes?
I’d like to communicate more with you about this in the future if you’d like. I’m preparing a Unbrdled’s Song piece that’s coming in a few weeks.
09 March 2010, 10:57 pm
Amateur,
Curlin did quite well at four, despite the trip to Dubai. True he was not the same, but neither was the Great Cigar after his trip back from the desert. I know you happen to think that Curlin’s success as a three year old was mainly due to steroids, but I would hazard to guess that he got nothing more than any other horse racing did. Horses race on medication all the time these days, so I really don’t feel it right to penalize him just because his owners came clean about it, while others simply stood back and said “no comment.” Of course there is not telling how he would’ve been had he had a year here instead of traveling. He could’ve very well duplicated his BCC and DWC many times over with a less agressive season that did not include Dubai.
On the breeding, I too like outcrosses, because IMO, to much inbreeding weakens the horse. If there are certain traits you want to strengthen then some inbreeding is fine. The advantage to outcrossing is that you bring in new fresh genes that add a whole new ingridient to the mix.
Unbridled Elaine would not have to be the daughter, but my main reason for wanting a daughter of US instead of a daughter of Curlin is because US, IMO would have more infulence, since he is closer up. If you have Curlin as the sire it would be more likely that his conformation traits would show up.
I’m sorry I didn’t see this sooner. I’m not sure if I missed you US peice, but if you have not started, I too was going to do one, I just keep delaying it. If you still would like to talk about this I’m fine with it. Just exchange e-mail address, unless you would rather communicate on here.