On the breeding, I too like outcrosses, because IMO, to much inbreeding weakens the horse. If there are certain traits you want to strengthen then some inbreeding is fine. The advantage to outcrossing is that you bring in new fresh genes that add a whole new ingridient to the mix.

Unbridled Elaine would not have to be the daughter, but my main reason for wanting a daughter of US instead of a daughter of Curlin is because US, IMO would have more infulence, since he is closer up. If you have Curlin as the sire it would be more likely that his conformation traits would show up.

I’m sorry I didn’t see this sooner. I’m not sure if I missed you US peice, but if you have not started, I too was going to do one, I just keep delaying it. If you still would like to talk about this I’m fine with it. Just exchange e-mail address, unless you would rather communicate on here.

The hypothetical foal for a CURLIN and UNBRIDLED ELAINE mating would be inbred to Mr. Prospector in the 3rd generation of the sire line and 5th generation of the dam line (3S x 5D). The Mr. P. sire line are notorious for te same coformation flaws and unsoundness that plagued Mr. P’s racing career. His brilliant speed and the brilliance handed down to his offspring during the breeding focus toward speed and precocity is part of what ails offspring of Unbridled’s Song.

Whether 3×5 is far enough back to mute those infirmities is a answer to a multi-million dollar question. Some others feel that outcrosses (no common ancestors in at least first 5 generation) take away from the brilliance but I have a friend that thinks it’s the key to the future of horse racing.

Curlin must first prove that without steroids, will his offspring be able to stay like he did when he was on them. Clearly, he wasn’t the same colt at 4 after his clean, brilliant run in the Dubai World Cup. Outran his genes?

I’d like to communicate more with you about this in the future if you’d like. I’m preparing a Unbrdled’s Song piece that’s coming in a few weeks.

Re: American Lion – I like him too. Even though he didn’t win by much in the H-wood Prevue, the Lion did what was needed and seemed in control the whole way.

I also like Dave in Dixie. I expect him to be running hard late. Hasn’t raced in a while but finished 2 lengths behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk on same surface & distance. Haven’t heard much chatter about him so he may be a price play on top or underneath Am Lion in the Exotics.

IMO, time does matter…good horses can make a slow strip look average and a great horse makes the slow track look good. Do you know how that mile time compared with other times that day?

You make a compelling case and I certainly will notice him in the Southwest.

Brian, re: Winslow Homer – how do you think Tony Dutrow & Ramon Dominguez feel? As far as I know, he was their best chance at getting to Louisville w/ a contender. Of course, I’m sure Ramon will have a mount come May 1st but it might be on one of Sheik Mo’s coming in from Dubai.

Sometimes it sucks to be right…I really liked WINSLOW HOMER’s win in the Holy Bull. Sat behind horses, split horses, finished well.

I’ve studied this sire extensively and it seems to me that UNBRIDLED’S SONG when crossed with a dam from a Northern Dancer line damsire seems to produce the most infirm juveniles and sophomores by him. WIth time and grass, THORN SONG (21 starts) and UNRIDLED SYDNEY (24 starts) won stakes from age 4 and beyond; the former became a G.1 wiinner at 5, the latter won stakes at 4,5, and 6.

As the old saying goes, time only counts in jail. Normally I would share your concerns about the splits in the Smarty Jones to some degree, but on the day of the Smarty Jones the track at Oaklawn was very deep in addition to being officially rated as “good”. You may recall there had been a couple of freeze/thaw cycles and the surface had been reworked extensively without the luxury of time to allow the track to settle and compact. It is true that the water gets much deeper form this point forward, but this colt has only had three starts and has a license to improve with more experience and longer routes. The Southwest next weekend (Steve, you are right about the date) presents the same challenge as the Smarty Jones in that the track configuration (with the start finish at what is usually the sixteenth pole) makes it tough on closers. As to your pedigree comments, Pleasant Tap was one of the most versatile racehorses of his generation, finishing a very fast closing second in the BC Sprint and a solid second in the BC Classic. (In the spirit of full disclosure, I bred to him and have a three-year-old filly getting ready to make her first start this spring so I am partial to him and am rooting for the success of his progeny,for obvious reasons.) He has been a solid turf and dirt sire. The female family looks like it has some turf sire bias, but that is counter balanced by the Mr. Prospectoer on the tail female line and by the fact that the Native Dancer filly Native Street won the Kentucky Oaks and four other stakes on the dirt. I wouldn’t let the otherwise turf appearing female family or the front wraps bother you (although I think Pleasant Storm would certainly be a likely candidate for turf races in the future) since he has already demonstrated his ability on dirt. You raise good points and they are appreciated. As for the Pletcher horses you like, they look like the usual suspects, but success in the TC races has been elusive for Mr. Pletcher with one notable exception…his remarkable filly in the Belmont. That was really a head scratcher.

Going back through his pedigree, looks more like turf on his dam side. Troubling that he started the Smarty Jones w/ front wraps. What do you make of the slow time? Made up just under seven lengths from he 1/2 mile mark to the wire which means a final 1/2 in around :52 3/5. His RP sprint stakes win was decent time, but he ran down nothing (1-2-3 at the 1/2 mile started at 51-1, 11-1, and 141-1).

The water gets much deeper from here out…G.1 winner DUBLIN makes his 2010 debut off a bullet 6f workout recently. One thing’s certain…you’ll get a price on PS.

Have fun following him and the other 3y.o.’s.