If You Wanna Win, You Gotta Take Chances
The Saints upset of the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV (number 44 so I’m told) proves one thing: if you wanna win, you gotta take chances.I didn’t give the Saints a snowball’s chance in hell of beating the Colts. And if I was in Vegas, I would’ve bet a chunk of change on the Colts to cover.
But the Saints showed up to play and proved it by opening the 2nd half with a gutsy on-side kick. Normally a low percentage gambit, the surprise worked to their advantage. They got the ball in great field position and put some needed points on the scoreboard.
Late in the 4th quarter with the Colts threatening to tie, the Saints blitzed forcing Peyton Manning into a rare mistake. He threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown and the game was essentially over.
Not all risks paid off: just before half-time the Saints went for a 4th in goal from the two yard line and got stopped. They were lucky the Colts didn’t capitalize.
So why am I talking football on a horse racing blog? Because it provides a lesson for horseplayers: you gotta take chances to win.
Playing safe is akin to betting the favorite; whether in the win pool or your exotics tickets. As favorites lose more than two-thirds of the time, betting the chalk leads to steady losses and low payouts.
Sometimes betting the favorite is smart (Quality Road in the Donn comes to mind) and sometimes you need to bet a long-shot (Peppi Knows in the Whirlaway, for instance). Knowing when is critical (I know, easier said than done).
So don’t just take chances for the sake of taking chances; find an edge and play it with confidence. Discipline and patience are important, and a little luck doesn’t hurt either.
One thing I know, I’m sure glad I didn’t bet the chalk today.
08 February 2010, 7:30 pm
That was a great game. I thought Mr. Manning was going to be able to figure out the Saint’s defense the way he did against the Jets in the second half of the AFC championship. He never did. He’s human after all.
As for Peppi Knows, I’ll have more to say about that later this week.
08 February 2010, 11:10 pm
TKS, I thought the same thing – that Peyton would eventually start torching the Saints D. When I saw the interception returned for a TD, I couldn’t believe me eyes (as a Brit might say).
Looking forward to reading your thoughts on Peppi Knows.