Saturday Stakes – Giving Peace Chant A Chance
With relatively small fields, Saturday’s KY Derby preps at Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita aren’t the best betting races. Unless the unexpected happens. Of course, the unexpected is what horse racing’s all about. More attractive betting options are likely to be found in Santa Anita’s Strub Stakes and Gulfstream Park’s Sprint Championship.Peace Chant (#4) had nowhere to go in his last start on a fast track:
G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs (Race 10) – Selection: Uptowncharlybrown (2-1).
Rule (8/5) is certainly talented but seems better when leading early. He should get pressed by Schoolyard Dreams who’s adding blinkers and Cornelio’s likely to gun him from the start. ‘Charly can sit chilly off the pace and make his move in the final turn. I’m playing a trifecta with ‘Charly on top and Rule and Schoolyard Dreams underneath.
G2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita (Race 6) – Selection: American Lion (9/5)
Dontcha just love 5-horse fields? If he’s a true Derby contender, I’m thinking American Lion should handle his business here. While Tiz Chrome is impressive sprinting, he’s untried beyond 6 furlongs. American Lion hasn’t raced longer than 7 furlongs, but looks like he can run all day. Dave In Dixie is intriguing. Off a maiden win he faced Lookin at Lucky in the G1 Norfolk and didn’t embarrass himself despite finishing 6th. Love the jockey (Rosario) trainer (Sadler) combo and thinking a move forward puts him in the mix. I’m playing him underneath American Lion in an exacta (and a smaller bet w/ him on top). Caracortado’s 4 for 4 and the only horse to win at the race distance of a mile and 16th. But question the level of competition he’s faced in the CA state bred races. Tango Tango ships from Golden Gate and is another to never run a route.
G2 Strub at Santa Anita (Race 9) – selection: Massone (12-1)
Massone has only two wins in 18 tries so he must be overdue huh? His late running style should suit the Pro-Ride surface and hopefully he’ll have a quick pace to chase down. There’s a decent 10-horse filed here, notably Misremembered, Viscount, and Smart Bid. They might have higher batting averages but Massone has more than a puncher’s chance and I’m thinking he’ll go off at a price – at 2 for 18 he should.
G2 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship (Race 9) – Selection: Peace Chant (12-1)
Though he got beat like a drum on synthetics and sloppy dirt tracks, Peace Chant is itching for a good trip on a fast dirt track. In the 2009 Forego (see replay above) he was poised, but got trapped on the rail. There’s some really tough horses in this race with Biker Boy, Motovato, Solar Flare, You and I Forever cutting back, and Munnings – all of them contenders and lots of options. It’s the race of the day in my book should be fun to watch and to bet.
Good Luck!
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12 February 2010, 11:27 am
That Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship is clearly the best stakes race of the day on Saturday.
As for the Robert J. Lewis stakes.
Does it not make you wonder that there are too many prep races out there in California on the wrong surface, no less?
Whatever the results, I don’t think it is going to weigh too heavily on anybody’s Derby list.
As for the Sam Davis, if Rule gets into a stretch duel like I think he will, he’ll be vulnerable to a bounce in his next start. Yes. I’m already looking two races ahead.
Free BRIS pp’s for those making up their lists. (117pgs)
http://www.courier-journal.com/graphics/2010/derby/tcn0501y.pdf
12 February 2010, 8:03 pm
Hopefully Munnings doesn’t scratch if the track comes up wet, I’m looking forward to seeing if he can regain his winning ways.
12 February 2010, 8:32 pm
TKS,
Thanks for linking the pp’s – very helpful.
Re: the CA preps – I tend to agree w/ you. if I had a Derby-worthy horse I’d get him running on dirt asap; but if I only wanted to get graded stakes placed & pick up a check, why not try a 5-horse field in CA.
The GP Sprint Championship just leaps out as a great race – for betting and watching. I’m taking a bit of a flyer that Peace Chant is better than he’s showed of late – we shall see.
12 February 2010, 8:55 pm
Hi Brian,
That’s a great point, Munnings clearly isn’t his best on the slop. He’s done well at 7 furlongs so this should be right up his alley. John Velazquez is in Tampa with Rule though – I guess he doesn’t wanna take any chances on someone poaching a Derby mount.
13 February 2010, 12:30 am
I agree about the Graded Stakes earnings out in California. Let them load up but it is a dirt series that they will be competing for in the springtime.
In other words California will continue to be sending horses who are ill-suited for the Triple Crown.
14 February 2010, 1:24 pm
I ditto TKS’ recent comment.
Your pre-race analysis included, “Caracortado’s 4 for 4 and the only horse to win at the race distance of a mile and 16th. But question the level of competition he’s faced in the CA state bred races.”
You were correct then and still are. These short fields are proving nothing.
14 February 2010, 7:12 pm
TKS, gib,
In the Lewis, it looked like neither Tiz Chrome nor American Lion were relaxed on the lead. They ran like it was one-turn sprint despite the jocks’ attempts to rein them in. Caracortado ran much easier in 3rd and waited for the leaders to tire. if American Lion learns to rate, he could be a viable Derby runner. But I totally agree with both of you, a 5-horse race on Pro-ride proves nothing, G2 or not.
17 February 2010, 12:06 am
Steve, T_K_S, and gib,
I’m not sure you saw it, but AMERICAN LION stumbled pretty bad at the start of the Lewis which got him into the bit earlier than Leparoux and Harty would have wanted. Of the favs, he’s got the best chance to stay a route…that is if this stumble didn’t cause an injury.
CARACORTADO is the real deal, at least at middle distances and could be more of a MARIA’S MON than a CAT DREAMS. IMHO, he’d be even better on a traditional dirt track where his speed would carry him farther.
One thing I agree wholeheartedly with, five horse fields give no indication about Derby potential.
Brian,
MUNNINGS did his thing.
Steve,
Stop chasing PEACE CHANT…7y.o. has lost too many steps in graded stakes and is destined for the breeding shed…where I don’t know but a SW, GSP horse out of SAFELY KEPT, by WAR CHANT must have some value somewhere. This is a classic example of a potentially brilliant colt who did not realize his potential because of the synthetic mandate.
Get ready for another rain out this weekend at Santa Anita…raindrops scheduled Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
17 February 2010, 10:27 pm
AmCap,
I watched the replay and saw the stumble so maybe that was a factor. He definitely looked to be going faster that Julien wanted in the early going.
Good points regarding Peace Chant. Graded stakes are clearly outside his ability right now & maybe forever. I thought a fast dirt track would provide some betting value underneath Munnings & I liked the confidence the connections were showing. The confidence turned out to be wishful thinking. If he’s going to continue racing, they need to get him an allowance win to get his confidence back before trying stakes. Right now he’s out-matched in G1/G2 fields no matter the surface.