Want More? Here’s WirePlayers Derby Dozen Volume IV
And Eskendereya storms to the lead! The Fountain of Youth was impressive, but there’s plenty more prep races where that came from; at least I hope.The most anticipated race in the next two weeks may be the Rebel Stakes on March 13th at Oaklawn. It’s where we expect to see Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise for the first time at age three and the first time both race on God’s own dirt.
Until then, please consider Volume IV of the WirePlayers Derby Dozen, thoughtfully crafted for your reading pleasure.
Special thanks to the voting members of the Derby Dozen panel. They prove the adage that “none of us are as smart as all of us.”
Rob from Amateurcapper
Brian from Railrunner
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
Jessica Paquette
The Turk
Dylan Jarmulowicz
The Zipster from Zipse at the Track
Norm from The Knight Sky Racing blog
Steve from WirePlayers.com
03 March 2010, 2:19 am
Steve,
It’s not hard to figure out which Pletcher will finish last.
It’s Interactif aka Monba part deux.
What amazes me is that people voted for William’s Kitten even though he is off the Derby trail after he wrenched an ankle in work a few weeks back.
03 March 2010, 3:37 pm
What is hard for me to figure out is why Tiz Chrom is on the list over American Lion, who beat him last out? That does not make much sense to me. I’m not and Eski fan, and even after his FoY I’m still not. I was more impressed with Dublin and Conveyance. Both of those colts made Sloaklawn look like a speedway. Dublin with his five furlong sustained move and Conveyance with that abundance of speed he displayed clearing the field while starting on the outside. I am also beginning to wonder if the slow final quarters are slow because the quarter pole is placed so far into the turn, which means the horses probably take a little longer to hit full stride, since they don’t really straighten out until the three sixteenths.
03 March 2010, 10:19 pm
Tencent,
I didn’t know William’s Kitten was injured so five of the six votes were from yours truly. Thanks for the update, duly noted.
KY Derby seems like a bad fit for Interactif. Turf or synth might be his preferred surface so the VA Derby in the summer before a go at the BC turf sounds more reasonable. But it’s hard to be reasonable when it comes to the KY Derby.
03 March 2010, 10:35 pm
LDP,
Good observation about final 1/4 in OP’s mile races.
I’m not a big Tiz Chrome myself, but I think a few members of the panel are willing to give him one more shot. The votes are fairly tight from Tiz in 11th place down to Dave in Dixie (essentially 18th place) so it’s kind of a “fur ball.”
I’m slowly warming up to Conveyance. You really can’t argue with a perfect record. Question for me is can he handle a hot pace on CD’s souped up track on Derby day for 10 furlongs? But if he gets an easy lead we may see a War Emblem-esque wire to wire win.
04 March 2010, 12:06 am
Tencent,
INTERACTIF won his debut gonig 5f in :58 and change…on dirt. Monba, he isn’t. This underrated performer has performed well on turf, routing and I expect that he’ll be a surprise if they try him back on dirt going two turns.
04 March 2010, 12:37 am
LDP,
TIZ CHROME figures to improve with the return to dirt…he didn’t exactly back up in the Lewis. It was more like he was outfinished by the 1-2-3 finishers. He was 4th beaten 4 1/2 lengths which means he ran the last 4 1/2 f in a decent :55.54 in his first route, taking heat the whole way inside of your hero AMERICAN LION. That race will give him the foundation he needs for the Gotham S.
RE: AMERICAN LION…he only missed the list by 2 points which means he’s the equal to TIZ CHROME and DROSSELMEYER who got in w/ 18 and 17 points, respectively. AMERICAN LION had a very troubling stumble out of the gate in the Lewis. I personally despise this trouble because of the potential for injury, relative to the bad step, next out and farther down the line.
RE: ESKENDEREYA…your cynicism is justified. Take another look at how he galloped out in the FOY and returned to the winners’ circle compared to his prior win. “ESKI”, as you call him, was spent after that FOY win. No doubt he has talent off that race and he runs terrific on dirt (undefeated), but there may not be enough time between that race and the Derby for him to recover from that maximal efffort.
RE: CONVEYANCE…I’ve read and heard that he’s headed to Dubai for the UAE Derby on the World Cup undercard. His owner is Sheikh Mohammed’s son. The U.S./Dubai/U.S. shipping may be his undoing more than the 1 1/4 miles would have been.
RE: DUBLIN…I’ve been against him since his stumble in the Hopeful and he “bobbled” again at the start of the Southwest. He ran courageously thereafter but, similar to AMERICAN LION, there may be more missteps and possible injury in DUBLIN’s future.
RE: “SLOAKLAWN” PARK…the final 1/4 miles are slow because the dirt track is so darn tiring after freezing/thawing multiple times this winter. The top finishers may be too tired to run well on that strip in the Rebel…evidence DRYFLY, PLEASANT STORM, and KITTY’S TURN 1-2-3 in the Smarty Jones but 9th, 7th, and last in the Southwest.
04 March 2010, 12:43 am
Nice to see not everyone abandoned Buddy’s Saint off his bad FOY trip. I still think he’s got a lot to say on the Triple Crown trail.
Agree with LDP on Tiz Chrome, not really a fan.
I was very excited to hear that Baffert might send Lookin at Lucky to the Rebel on dirt!
04 March 2010, 12:44 am
Steve,
Wonderful job on the list…it’s great fun being part of your project. Thanks!
04 March 2010, 9:26 pm
Amateur,
I would not call him my hero, but I find it contradictive to had a horse who beat him, below him. Many synthetic to dirt first timers have done well this year, especially those who have done well at Hollywood Park. Because of this I think American Lion would be the winner over dirt as well, between the two.
On Dublin, I don’t really understand how you can be against a horse for bobbling. He is a huge horse, so, IMO gate problems are expected. Two other big horses who were not know for their gate abilities are Zenyatta and Midnight Lute. Sloaklawn was not meant as a slight, just me coming up with something that matched how the track has been playing. Eski, is shorter, and much easier to spell ( I do not spell very well.)
04 March 2010, 10:06 pm
The only two on the list I see worth betting in Future Pool #2 are:
Rule who I see as Pletcher’s best chance (an oxymoron for sure) and whose probably odds with inaction creep up to 30-1
Dublin at 15-1 ML is a gift. He has that impressive in person presence that most Derby winners have…the swagger shall we say.
Even if you believe in Lookin At Lucky or Eskendereya, their odds in a Future Pool are far too low to bet two months away…
…but then again this is all coming from someone who took Maximus Ruler in Pool #1.
05 March 2010, 5:05 pm
AmCap,
Thnx for the compliment, I’m glad everyone’s having fun with this.
LDP,
Do you think how Sloaklawn is playing will favor RA or Z? BTW, “Eski” has a nice ring & much easier to type. I’m an okay speller but crappy typist myself (and iit tood myh fart too long to taype this wentecne – see what i mean!).
Tony,
Thnx for the reminder about Pool #2 – i completely forgot it was this week. I didn’t dabble in pool #1 but might see how things look Sunday night. What’s a good strategy; see if a horse you kinda like will be considerably higher in Pool #2 than when they load him in the gate on May 1st?
05 March 2010, 5:47 pm
Steve,
It’s all about value for me with future pools. Also small bet at big odds since it’s tough enough picking them right before they enter the gate, let alone two months out. My full Future Pool 2 analysis is at my blog – written in briefly in a list format.
Two others I may consider – sprinters stretching out – D’Funnybone and Sidney’s Candy.
05 March 2010, 10:28 pm
Tony,
I checked out your blog post on Future Pool # 2 – very well done! Especially liked your comments – funny and insightful.
As much as I like to kid T. Pletch, you can’t fault Rule’s recent form. But his path the Derby, via Delta and Tampa Bay Downs, is unconventional. Would like to see how he handles a deep field.
05 March 2010, 10:46 pm
Rule has done what he’s been asked and will probably handle anything at this point…I have the feeling he can rate and will in next start.
Thanks for the compliment, hopefully I’m on target with at least a few of my thoughts.