Betting the Races at Timonium
Horse racing is held at Timonium’s race track only once a year as part of the Maryland State Fair. This year’s meet started last Friday (28 Aug) and will end Labor Day. While at most tracks you’ll find bettors staying inside yelling at the simulcast TVs, Timonium’s horseplayers are outside enjoying the weather in the open air grandstand or sitting on lawn chairs near the track. In fact, last Saturday there was only one horseplayer screaming at the TV and that was me when Saratoga’s stewards DQ’d Vineyard Haven, dropping him from 1st to 2nd after a shocking incident of bumping against Capt Candyman Can in the Kings Bishop. The DQ torpedoed my winning trifecta and turned me into that guy at the track who bellyaches about his misfortune to anyone willing to listen.While I like the casual and relaxing atmosphere of Timonium, I love the advantageous betting opportunities it presents. The unique configuration of Timonium’s track provides a great edge to astute handicappers. The track is only about a half-mile in circumference with tight turns and a short stretch. There is also quite a bit of banking. The narrow turns, short strecth, and banking combine to produce a significant speed-favoring rail bias. Horses leading on the rail, especially when exiting the final turn into the stretch, usually hang on to win. Speed horses that normally lead the race early only to falter in the strecth, will hold their speed longer and fend off the stalkers and closers.
Another thing you may notice is that certain horses do much better at Timonium than at other tracks. The “horse for the course” betting angle is nothing new, but when most tracks are one mile ovals with nearly identical dimensions it’s hard to say whether a good record at a particular track is a meaningful stat or merely a coindidence. At Timonium it’s not unusual to see horses with over 20 lifeftime starts and only 1 or 2 wins, all of which came at Timonium. These horses should be considered even if they initially appear over-matched or out-classed.
The reason the rail bias is so prominent is due to many factors. The tight turns and a short strecth make it difficult for closers to get rolling and overtake the leaders before reaching the wire. The banking creates the rail bias in several ways: horses running on the outside will lose momentum by essentially running uphill when the jockey decides to veer outside to pass. However, staying inside is no better because they will only get stuck behind traffic on the rail. Outside running horses may also become tired by running on a side incline for a prolonged period. In addition, when it rains the water will naturally flow toward the rail; when the track dries, the racing surface along the inside lanes becomes a veritable drag strip compared to the likely softer footing on the outside.
You can use all this to your advantage. The first step is to identify which horses have early speed. If there is only one horse with pronounced early speed then your job is easier. If there are multiple horses, you need to figure out who is the speed of the speed or consider boxing them in exactas and trifectas. If no horses have demonstrated early speed you can look at other factors such as: each horse’s record at the track, the trainer’s record at the track, and jockey tendencies.
Let’s look at jockey tendencies. Certain jockeys show a preference to “run and gun” and get their horses positioned upfront early as well as be more inclined to ride the rail (ala Calvin “Bo’rail”). It’s worth your time to figure out which jockeys like to hustle their horses early and ride the rail; Matt McGowan’s riding style seems to fit that mold for instance.
Trainers with high win percentages at Timonium, or high win percentages in general, are usually good at selecting races in which their horses have a decent chance of winning. For example, knowing that a particular horse can run fast early if asked, the trainer may instruct the jockey to get his horse on the lead early; even if the horse is more of a stalker or closer-type runner and leading early is not their typical normal running style.
While it’s obvisouly important to identify the horse most likely to win the race, successful bettors are also great at identifying “throwouts” – those horses likely to finish off the board. When a handicapper identifies heavily favored throwouts at low odds, it’s like an early Christmas. Timonium’s short fair meet attracts many casual bettors who may be more likely to fixate on a horse’s performance at other tracks or speed figures and overlook running style. This can create underlay situations where closers with big speed figures, figures that perhaps dwarf the rest of the field, are severly overbet by the public but a throwout for us. Horses showing good turf form in recent races but mediocre dirt form are also throwouts. Reason being that turf races are run slower on the front end and generally favor late speed vs. early speed. If the turf horses are at short odds, so much the better.
Armed with this information you are now prepared to bet Timonium with confidence. Best of luck!
