“Chaos Theory” of Betting Thoroughbreds
Sometimes you can miss seeing the forest through the trees. For instance, I’ll get wrapped around the axle trying to figure out which particular horse will win a race instead of identifying whether the outcome is likely to be “predictable” or “chaotic.” If I believe the outcome will be predictable, I’ll confidently pick a few standouts and be able to throwout the rest. On the other hand, a chaotic race seems so wide open that any horse appears capable of winning. My perception of the big picture will guide my betting strategy.
Two G2 stakes races at the Fair Grounds on Saturday provide an opportunity to determine whether they’ll be predictable or chaotic: the New Orleans Handicap and Louisiana Derby.
At face value, the New Orleans Hdcp looks like a wide open race. However, the race seems devoid of early speed except for BATTLE PLAN. He could set a nice comfortable pace and win gate to wire. At a phat morning line of 6-1, I’ll play BP to win and consider these underneath:
GIANT OAK (won’t be wide this time, but needs pace to win)
AWESOME GEM (recent starts not great, but likes dirt & has tons of class)
BIG POLKA DOT (local runner can sit off the pace)
HOLD ME BACK (Mott gets him a solid 1 mile tuneup for this)
STAR GUITAR (beats up state breds and could be horse for the course)
STONEHOUSE (won G3 prep over a few of these)
GENERAL QUARTERS (potential underlay from the outside post)
My throwouts: TONE IT DOWN & STONES RIVER
In the Louisiana Derby, DISCREETLY MINE will want to stroll around for another gate to wire win like he did in the Risen Star. But there’s new shooters in the race who may press the pace (notably WOW WOW WOW). If the pace falls apart, the finish could erupt into chaos with any number of horses eligible to win:
MISSION IMPAZIBLE (solid two-turn debut from outside post in Southwest)
FLY DOWN (lightly raced & undefeated around two-turns)
THE PROGRAM (LOVE the Pro-ride to dirt angle!)
A LITTLE WARM (nice sprinter stretches out)
RON THE GREEK (needs a complete pace collapse)
STAY PUT (stone cold closer gets much better setup at 10-1!)
DROSSELMEYER (‘effed in the draw so needs smart, tactical ride from Kent, oh shit)
My throwouts: HOTEP, ISLAND SOUL, WOW WOW WOW, MISTER MARTI GRAS, BACKTRACK
Two great betting races, but before I place my wagers, I’m stepping back to meditate on the big picture. Maybe I’ll hear that butterfly flapping its wings.
26 March 2010, 4:51 pm
While Pro-Ride to dirt seems a trend this year, it could very well be the horses making the switch and their talents not the surface – Lookin At Lucky might be able to win on quicksand or a tarmac and Conveyance simply lulled everyone to sleep in the Rebel. I don’t know – just saying the whole artificial to dirt or dirt to artificial thing seems to be a throw out in most instances….
26 March 2010, 7:46 pm
Opps that’s Conveyance in the Southwest
26 March 2010, 8:26 pm
That’s okay Tony, I knew what you meant.
I think there may be something to the synthetic to dirt play, but you’re right, with so many variables involved it’s hard to definitely isolate cause and effect. It seems to me that horses going pro-ride to dirt fire a big effort the 1st time, but the 2nd start isn’t quite as sharp. Just something I’m keeping an eye on . . .
Speaking of CONVEYANCE, what do you make of his chances in the Sunland Derby? Wondering if he’ll get pressured on the lead, but looks like he might be able to lull them to sleep one more time.
26 March 2010, 9:27 pm
I’m surprised Sunland didn’t attract more quality shooters with the $800,000 now-graded purse, but it looks like Conveyance or Tempted to Tapit win this. But remember you don’t necessarily have to win this one to win the Derby…will there be another Mine That Bird prepping in the desert???
27 March 2010, 3:38 am
Steve,
Shhh…I also love BATTLE PLAN for the reasons you stated. We can only hope for 6-1.
I also see a more contentious pace situation in the La. Derby. I can only hope it comes to pass…STAY PUT and DROSSELMEYER carry Road to the Roses weight for me.
DISCREETLY MINE worries me even though the race shape doesn’t seem to suit his style on paper. He does not have to win this to start in the Derby, sitting strong at $310,000 in 9th as of 3/22. Believe this will be an education run for him, where he sits off MISSION IMPAZIBLE, WOW WOW WOW, and BACKTRACK and makes his bid at the 1/4 pole. He rated/one-paced in the Futurity (2nd to D’FUNNYBONE) and pressed/bid/outfinished in the Champagne (2nd to HOMEBOYKRIS) last year.
Nakatani will ride the hair off THE PROGRAM to get a foot back into Baffert’s barn…he rode for BB back in the late ’90′s (General Challenge, Wooden Phone, etc.) before his mouth got him exiled. Agree that the synth/dirt angle is strong and this one’s style is the kind that seems to move up on dirt. Ran huge 4th to barn mate LOOKIN AT LUCKY at 23-1 in Cash Call Futurity. 10-1, tactical speed to be placed well in any pace situation…supporters will be down with Baffert’s La. Derby program.
FLY DOWN, another son of MINESHAFT, is coming along quickly and has a bullet at PmM on the 20th…wonder if 23 point new Beyer top was too much for a colt who’d totaled only 15 1/2 furlongs at two? Even a repeat of that number (90) puts him within 3 lengths of the tepid fav., equal to RON THE GREEK, and 1 point better than STAY PUT. Lezcano, 8-1…wouldn’t talk anyone off him.
DROSSELMEYER is pegged at double his Risen Star off odds (2-1) when he was favored. He’s sitting on a lifetime best, 3rd off the layoff and this was the weekend HOLD ME BACK put WinStar/Mott/Desormeaux into the ’09 Derby picture.
RON THE GREEK can move forward, backward, or maintain at this stage of development. Longest break since career debut was 6 weeks in Dec./Jan. and this is 3rd start since returning. Latest breeze @ FG was much improved, 7th-best of 62 at 4f. Needs pace players and stalkers to come back to him in order to win this and still looks like an underlay at 6-1 morning line.
A LITTLE WARM looks a little too low at 4-1 in his first route. His 2nd to D’FUNNYBONE in the Hutcheson, coupled with that rival’s next-out win in Swale last weekend, and his stalking sprint style are reasons this colt is adored by his fan club.
Enjoy the day…any thoughts on Dubai?
27 March 2010, 10:03 am
Amcap, i thought 6-1 on BATTLE PLAN was very, very generous too. Isn’t Martin Garcia riding THE PROGRAM, was there a jockey change?
As for Dubai, I really like RED DESIRE and VISION D’ ETAT in the World Cup. VISION looks like an absolute monster. RED DESIRE has a win on the course and raced well in Japan. ML of 10-1 on RED DESIRE is very attractive to boot.
In the Duty Free, my feelings aren’t as strong. IMBONGI looks nice and Soumilon and De Kock appear to be a powerful combo. CONFRONT looks talented, but was 6th in his last race. Wondering about PRESVIS. Looks great on paper but curious why Ryan Moore opts to ride CONFRONT (at 12-1 ML) instead of PRESVIS (at 4-1) on whom he’s won 5 races including the last one in a G2 at Meydan. Interesting . . . so maybe I let Ryan do my handicapping for me in this.
27 March 2010, 10:06 am
I just checked equibase, Nakatani is riding THE PROGRAM. The Brisnet pps I downloaded Monday night are out of date.
If Nakatani rides him like he did WOW WOW WOW in the Gotham and PULSION in the FL Derby, he should be in the mix pressing the pace early. Late? dunno.