Down to the Nitty Gritty, Derby Dozen Volume VI Isn’t Too . . . Shabby
Right now the WirePlayers Derby Dozen is a two horse race between west coast-based LOOKIN AT LUCKY and east coaster ESKENDEREYA. Charging hard is ODYSSEUS, who joins AWESOME ACT and NOBLE’S PROMISE in the second tier. Saturday’s Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby will prove if “Lucky” and “Esky” are truly the dominant contenders our poll suggests.The other end of the poll is still muddy. ENDORSEMENT occupies the 12 hole after winning the Sunland Derby of all things, but SIDNEY’S CANDY, JACKSON BEND, and MISSION IMPAZIBLE were just shy of cracking the list.
Studying the final preps may provide some Derby handicapping angles. Horses losing their last prep, but who showed improvement and/or had a troubled trip may offer betting value. After all, you want your selection to run well in their final prep, just not too well.
Our multi-talented Derby Dozen panel: they love horse racing and not just for the four digit payoffs.
Rob from Amateurcapper
Brian from Railrunner
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
Jessica Paquette
The Turk
Dylan Jarmulowicz
The Zipster from Zipse at the Track
Norm from The Knight Sky Racing blog
Steve from WirePlayers.com
30 March 2010, 8:35 pm
Steve,
Not liking the comment on Conveyance one bit. A) it’s not funny enough & B) Baffert won the Sunland Derby with Wanna Runner in 2006.
Funnier comments:
“Could somebody please find a method of telling Conveyance that he has no chance of getting a mile and quarter?”
or
“He’s wondering exactly how his half of the cab fare he’s splitting with Noble’s Promise to go a mile and a quarter will cost.”
31 March 2010, 1:46 am
Oops. Forgot one word in the joke:
“He’s wondering exactly how MUCH his half of the cab fare he’s splitting with Noble’s Promise to go a mile and a quarter will cost.”
31 March 2010, 6:24 am
Not funny enough? Well maybe you’re right, but it’s our losers that make us appreciate our winners even more.
Thnx for submitting alternative comments: I liked the 2nd one the best.
31 March 2010, 3:53 pm
Steve,
Your one on Rule was funny though, lol. I really hope Endorsement waits for the Belmont. He is a really talented colt, but the Derby may be too much too fast, and has a rep for sucking the desire right out of those with talent who are not ready. If he waited, he could run in the Lone Star Derby or Peter Pan as a prep. Distance wise, I would prefer the Lone Star’s 10 furlongs to get more bottom in him before the 12 in the Belmont, but either way I think he should wait.
31 March 2010, 8:15 pm
OK, if all goes accordingly – as it does 33 percent of the time – and favorites win Wood and SA Derby, Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky go as close favorites somewhere between 8-5 to 5-2 on Derby Day. This would open the flood gates to lots of enticing exotics of those that may pick up pieces, if either of the favored falter…
01 April 2010, 6:42 am
LDP,
Thnx for compliment. Pletch must’ve been wondering to himself where was that drag strip from ’09 that torpedoed DUNKIRK’s chances. Re: ENDORSEMENT – putting him in the Derby may not be the best thing to do at this point, but as you know, “Derby Fever” is a powerful thing.
Tony,
Yeah, i think the overall parity (or some might say lackluster quality of the 3-yr crop) should provide some nice exotic payouts. BTW, looking at the SA Derby Saturday, I like THOMAS BAINES to make some noise. Troubled trip in the El Camino and then faded to 6th. Don’t think he can beat LUCKY, but can hit the board at a price.
02 April 2010, 2:29 pm
It seems like most bloggers/fans think this years crop of Derby contenders is pretty weak. I’m actually kind of surprised. We have horses like Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Dublin, Eskendereya, Rule, Super Saver, Backtalk, Jackson Bend and Discreetly Mine that have been going strong since well into their 2-year-old seasons. Plus of course a bunch of newcomers like Odysseus and Ice Box that appear to quickly improving.
I tend to think this crop is a pretty good class.
02 April 2010, 9:51 pm
Brian,
If LOOKIN AT LUCKY or ESKENDEREYA are the real deal, I think they may be as good as any 3yr old we’ve seen in several years. Personally I think LUCKY is the real deal, not so sure about ESKY though.
One thing I do know, this year’s crop of 3yr olds is much better than last year’s colts. I mean the ’09 Derby favorites were FRIESAN FIRE and I WANT REVENGE if that tells you anything. Thank goodness for RACHEL.
03 April 2010, 12:21 pm
Steve,
That is certainly true, both 2008 and 2009 were pretty weak crops, especially after the fabulous 2007 crop we had!
I definitely think Lookin At Lucky is the real deal and I think Eskendereya is very good, but not as good as his Fountain of Youth made him look. I don’t think he’s that far ahead of the rest. I guess we’ll find out today.