Want to Win at Horse Racing – Be an Independent Thinker
Okay, there’s really no single strategy that will guarantee that you win all the time. But if I had to give one piece of advice it’s this: ”don’t listen to anyone.” Of course, one should be aware and observant of publicly available information to include “expert” handicapper’s opinions, but use those opinions as mere data points and opportunities to learn. Listen to others, seek out advice and try to understand the rationale for why people like certain horses and their betting strategies. However, when it comes time to make your bet, you can’t let others do your handicapping for you. Consistently winning horse players are able to collect and process as much data on each race as possible and distill that information into a comprehensive view of the race.For the handicapper just starting out it might be tempting to just follow someone else’s picks. In the short run it might be better than playing your own picks. But there are two, no three, problems with this strategy. 1) It’s not very fun, at least in my opinion, to parroting someone else’s plays; 2) You are much less likely to ever become a better handicapper; and 3) The other person might be an idiot. And if they’re winning, perhaps a lucky idiot on a hot streak.
Successful handicappers make their living by identifying situations where the public has completely overlooked a contender and made the horse a live longshot that is an overlay (underbet). Or alternatively, made a vulnerable favorite a huge underlay (overbet). This really gets the whole point of how to win while betting through a pari-mutuel pool. If you’re following the crowd you’ll get burned. There are times to play the long-shots and there are times to play the chalk. When you make those plays, make sure it’s based on your own conclusions and not someone else’s. Just like your sixth grade teacher used to say, when you copy someone else’s work, you’re only cheating yourself!
The horse racing gods, and the pari-mutuel pools, tend to reward independent thinkers.
17 July 2009, 3:57 pm
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