When Pace and Form Collide
Thoughts on Saturday’s three Derby preps:In the Wood Memorial, AWESOME ACT is the best closer in a race that should have a good pace to run down. With a good trip, AWESOME ACT (9/2) could beat an odds on ESKENDEREYA (4/5).
The Santa Anita Derby appears devoid of any pace. That should help SIDNEY’s CANDY (3-1) get another front-running trip. Is he good enough to hold off LOOKIN AT LUCKY (4/5) in the stretch? Maybe, maybe not. If LUCKY doesn’t bring his “A” game, Talamo’s got a shot to take SIDNEY gate-to-wire. Also playing THOMAS BAINES (50-1) underneath in the tri to hit the board at a price.
The Illinois Derby may be the most intriguing prep of the weekend. A few weeks back AMERICAN LION looked done in terms of KY Derby consideration, but now he draws into a pace-less Illinois Derby. If he can get out front and settle, he may cruise home first.
AMERICAN LION also has the Pro-Ride to dirt thing going. Note that Leparoux chose to ride AWESOME ACT in the Wood, which is a smart decision, but a jockey change may not be a bad thing. AMERICAN LION’s current form is atrocious and YAWANA TWIST looks very formidable. But NACHO FRIEND, who finished just behind YAWANA in the Gotham, was a well beaten 5th in last week’s Sunland Derby. Not sure anybody knows how good YAWANA really is right now.
Will take a hard look at AMERICAN LION in the paddock and post parade; if he’s not washed out and acting calm, I’ll play him on top. If he’s agitated, I’ll pass.
Good luck with your plays today.
03 April 2010, 11:16 am
Sidney’s Candy is probably cranked for SA Derby while Lookin at Lucky doesn’t need to win, but may do so on sheer talent edge. I think the best bet is a $10 Exacta box Sidney Candy/Lookin at Lucky.
In Illinois Derby rain will play a factor, regardless I like Backtalk a lot. This race is probably a better bet than SA Derby and definitely better than Wood, Lots to prove in Chicago, which leaves a big odds finish in exotics a strong possibility. I haven’t checked PPs for this race yet, but will be doing so a little later….good luck with your wagers.
03 April 2010, 12:24 pm
I don’t think it’s going to matter if Lookin At Lucky is fully cranked or not, he’s miles ahead of this group and should win easily.
I’m rooting for Jackson Bend to pull off the win the the Wood and I love Backtalk in the Illinois Derby.
03 April 2010, 3:35 pm
Tony,
I agree the SA Derby looks like a two-horse race. I may play a power exacta box as you suggested. Also singling SC on top of LAL in 2nd w/ THOMAS BAINES and few others underneath in a lower value trifecta. Great point about the Illinois Derby; it’s much less predictable and there’s some value below the top three. I think YAWANA, BACKTALK, and AM LION are all vulnerable. The only reason I like AM LION is from a pace perspective; he seems like bit of a head case though, so I’m lukewarm at best.
Brian, I agree with you that LUCK is the real deal. Three GI wins, two G2 wins and only race he didn’t win was on the far outside post in the BC Juvie and he still got 2nd despite tough trip. Having said that, if LUCKY is even gonna be vulnerable, it just might be this race. Poor pace scenario, tough race in the Rebel (may bounce), doesn’t need to win, and dirt to pro-ride is a slight negative. He towers over the field from a talent perspective though.