Searching For Clues in the Blue Grass
A while ago I listed eleven betting angles and might try a few more on for size in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes this Saturday.ODYSSEUS looks like an attractive bet at 7/2, but he should get bet down from there and may be a post-time underlay. I’m not excited about taking short odds on a horse that’s unproven on polytrack. Furthermore, he beat SCHOOLYARD DREAMS by a nose last time out, but SCHOOLYARD was a well beaten 4th in last week’s Wood memorial.
A better option may be FIRST DUDE at 8-1. Some angles to like:
1) Had a rough trip in the Florida Derby when he got squeezed down on the rail and forced to alter course mid-stretch.
2) Raced well on Keeneland’s polytrack when 2nd to CHIEF COUNSEL in his maiden race last October. He at least showed he can handle the surface.
3) Stalking style should have him near the front in a pace-less race.
4) Dominguez travels to Lexington to ride when he may have had other options. He could’ve either ridden SUPER SAVER, the 9/5 ML favorite in the Arkansas Derby, or pick up his normal 3-5 winners at Aqueduct. Ramon shows some faith and it’s not everyday you can get him at 8-1.
Is the DUDE a lead-pipe lock? Far from it. But in a wide open race he’s got just as much chance as ODYSSEUS, MAKE MUSIC FOR ME, INTERACTIF, PLEASANT PRINCE, or AIKENITE and at twice the price.
As for the Arkansas Derby, NOBLE’S PROMISE doesn’t have to play second fiddle to LOOKIN AT LUCKY and should hold sway. If for some reason you don’t like NOBLE to win, things get murky. SUPER SAVER is an obvious option, but he’ll face pace pressure and doubt he can lead the whole way if setting fast fractions.
Maybe a horse from off the pace can hit the board a price. But who? An intriguing option is 30-1 shot BERBERIS. An Asmussen trainee coming off a $39K MSW win and now has Gryder aboard. I’m hoping he can snag the bottom of the exacta and turn 2-1 on NOBLE’S PROMISE into a $50 exacta. If he does, it’ll be White Russians all around.
Playing:
Blue Grass Stakes – FIRST DUDE
Arkansas Derby – NOBLE’S PROMISE, BERBERIS underneath
10 April 2010, 12:55 am
Man, i got zero love from you for either of my top picks.
I like Paddy O’Prado in the Blue Grass and New Madrid in the Arkansas Derby. (There have not been enough big prices along the derby trail)
10 April 2010, 9:03 am
Tencent,
I think the Blue Grass is so wide open, that just about any horse can win. I’m taking a shot with FIRST DUDE at 8-1, but won’t begrudge anyone who likes PADDY O’ PRADO either. Having said that, PLEASANT PRINCE or ODYSSEUS could just as easily win at less than 3-1.
Re: the Arkansas Derby, I really like NOBLE’S PROMISE to win. There’s some things to like about NEW MADRID (3rd of a layoff, 2nd to Endorsement, improved after Tim Ice began training) and he can definitely hit the board. IMO, after NOBLE’S PROMISE, it’s anyone’s race for 2nd and 3rd.
We may not get big prices on the winners today, but the preps should have big prices in the exotic pools. And I plan to go into the deep end on both.
10 April 2010, 3:12 pm
I’m going with Odysseus. If he can adjust to the surface switch as well as he adjusted to his trip in the Tampa Bay Derby it’s his race to lose. Interactif and Pleasant Prince both look great.
Noble’s Promise all the way in the Arkansas Derby with Dublin second!
10 April 2010, 7:08 pm
Brian,
ODYSSEUS laid an egg today. He may not have liked the synthetic track. In hindsight, the Arkansas Derby might’ve been a better plan. Speaking of Oaklawn, NOBLE’S PROMISE got a horrible break. He was squeezed by the #2 and #4 horses, pinched back, and unable to fully recover.
Tencent,
Great job on gate crashers today! You were right about being due for some prices in the win pool.