In Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes on Saturday only CONNEMARA has a chance to make the KY Derby field. With $138,000 in graded stakes earnings and $180,000 for first place, he could be safely in the field with a victory. The $60,000 second place paycheck will leave him a little short unless there’s multiple unforseen withdraws. If CONNEMARA makes the field, Todd Pletcher will have an amazing seven horses in the Derby and a one-third chance of winning (based on sheer numbers anyway).
Lexington Stakes
| Post |
Horse |
Earnings |
Trainer |
Jockey |
ML |
| 1 |
KRYPTON |
$0 |
McLaughlin |
Garcia |
6/1 |
| 2 |
UPTOWN CHARLYBROWN |
$29,000 |
White |
Gomez |
4/1 |
| 3 |
DISTORTED DAVE |
$0 |
Sadler |
Espinoza |
10/1 |
| 4 |
BUSHWHACKED |
$0 |
Sheppard |
Maragh |
12/1 |
| 5 |
CALL SHOT |
$1,208 |
Catalano |
Alvarado |
10/1 |
| 6 |
PRINCE WILL I AM |
$0 |
Nihei |
Borel |
30/1 |
| 7 |
LONESOME STREET |
$0 |
Maker |
Leparoux |
12/1 |
| 8 |
EXHI |
$358 |
Pletcher |
Albarado |
8/1 |
| 9 |
HEAVENVILLE |
$1,139 |
Asmussen |
Bridgmohan |
12/1 |
| 10 |
CONNEMARA |
$138,000 |
Pletcher |
R. Baze |
5/1 |
| 11 |
KETTLE RIVER |
$0 |
Harty |
Castellano |
5/1 |
| 12 |
CHIEF COUNSEL |
$24,250 |
Mott |
Desormeaux |
15/1 |
15 April 2010, 11:35 pm
I’m hoping he doesn’t win so that Jackson Bend has a better chance at making the Derby field, but he looks like the class of the field, even with Uptowncharlybrown entered.
16 April 2010, 1:06 am
I really hope that the cut-back for Kettle River is the key, as i would like to have at least ONE of my Derby future bets be a graded stakes winner before the Derby. :-p
BTW, horrible morning line? UTCB should have been 7-2, Exhi & Connemara should have been 9-2, Krypton 6-1 and Kettle River 8-1. No way Exhi goes off higher than Kettle River. (and that’s the way i want it.)
16 April 2010, 3:48 pm
Brian,
I totally agree that the UTCB deserves to be in the Derby. He just might get in – only needs one horse to drop out and I think NOBLE’s PROMISE is on the fence. Plus, I read that Pletch may not send CONNEMARA even if he wins, but I doubt the connections can resist the urge once they have the graded earnings.
Tencent,
I haven’t had a chance to study the PPs yet, but this race looks completely wide open. Maybe a chance for a big price just like last weekend. Heck, PRINCE WILL might be a live longshot at 30-1 (and Borel’s riding to boot).
Seeing lots of questionable morning lines lately. Sometimes I’ll get the pps befor the ML is set and make my own line. Found it to be a good way to handicap a race without being unduly (or subconciously) influenced by the track handicapper. Ever do that?
17 April 2010, 10:22 am
The Lexington is wide-open and is likely to have a double-digit winner. I’m thinking about playing a Pick Three ending with the Lexington and the All-button….
20 April 2010, 3:34 pm
I really enjoyed the video and a closer look at a track I only get glimpses of from a tiny monitor at my OTB…definitely keep these coming!
Cheers
Keith