Overwhelming Favorites
Rachel Alexandra’s race in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes on Saturday, September 5th was awesome to watch as a racing fan but also presented an intriguing opportunity for handicappers. With post time odds of .30 to 1 (rounded to 1-4) bettors had to decide how to play a race the with such an overwhelming favorite to win.As a 3-year old filly racing against accomplished older male horses, including several Grade 1 winners, her chances of winning were far from given. For one, Rachel Alexandra was attempting something that few 3-year old fillies had ever tried and none had accomplished. Calvin Borel’s dismal record at Saratoga could not be discounted either; he’s a Kentucky-based jockey who infrequently rides at Saratoga and without much success. The most troubling factor was the anticipated pace scenario. Rachel Alexandra races near the front and faced other front-runners in D’Tara and Past the Point who were likely to press the pace and force Rachel to run faster on the front-end.
Rachel is an impressive horse, and I respect Jess Jackson’s courage to enter her in such a tough spot. However, in looking at the other contenders, Macho Again stood out the most for me. His closing style fit perfectly for the projected quick front-end pace, was training well going in the race and appeared primed for a big effort.
For my play I put Macho Again (program #4) on top of a trifecta with Rachel (#3) in the 2nd position and multiple horses underneath in the 3rd position – the coupled entry of Cool Coal Man and D’Tara (#1), Bullsbay (#2) and It’s A Bird (#5). I also had one straight 4-2-5 trifecta that didn’t include Rachel Alexandra. Just in case she fired a dud similar to Big Brown’s 2008 Belmont, I had a shot at a huge payoff. It was a relatively cheap $8 ticket with the potential for a triple digit payoff or more.
We all know what happened; Rachel Alexandra was forced into quick fractions when pressed on the lead and remarkably held off a closing run by Macho Again to win by a head. At the top of the stretch, with Macho Again coming on strong, I was almost certain Rachel was cooked and Macho would win. The fact that she continued her run to the wire was one of the most amazing displays of equine talent I have ever seen.
Although my ticket ultimately lost, it was a good play when the outcome of the race was in doubt. You simply can’t take 1-4 odds on a horse you know is going to have a real battle on their hands. I was a head away from cashing a nice trifecta that would have paid much more than the resulting $36 payout and those are the opportunities that overwhelming favorites present. We didn’t get the triple or quadruple digit payoff but did get to witness one of the best horse races in history; not a bad consolation!
10 September 2009, 5:49 pm
Steve:
If a bettor liked RA’s chances and thought that MACHO AGAIN was clearly the best of the rest, the exotics offered the opportunity to get much better than .30 on the dollar wagered. Looking at the opportunity to “Key” RA over MACHO AGAIN in the Exacta and Trifecta would have produced returns of over 5-1 and, 6-1 respectively ($2. Exacta 3/4 paid a generous $12.20 and a $2. 3/4/2 Trifecta paid $36.80). Most exotic players feeling somewhat confident in the 3/4 straight Exacta may not have been confident betting the Trifecta “straight” and the more likely play, if one were confident in the RA/MA, 1-2 order of finish, but not so confident about who would follow them to the wire, would be to bet the tri 2/4/1,2,5,6,7 (total cost $10) at least once (and get better than 3-1 with the $36.80 pay off) and then emphasize a preferred third place horse or two a couple of times in straight tri tickets (3/4/2, 3/4/1 etc.) Very short priced favorites with a good chance of winning, particularly when the race shapes up well for a second horse which distinguishes itself form the rest, offer good opportunities in the exotics even if you do not choose to bet against the short odds. The hedging with the strategy Steve used would be the “insurance” just in case RA threw in the proverbial “clunker”. There are many ways to approach a race like the Woodward and the pick three payoff was handsome despite RA being a prohibitive favorite. One could have “back wheeled” her with the five shortest priced horses for $50. (1x5x5=25 combinations x$2.00=$50.) and received a nice $236 payoff…which is the equivalent of 9-2.
11 September 2009, 9:37 pm
Joel, great point! In a situation like the Woodward, you must first decide whether or not you like the favorite’s chances to win. Personally, I thought RA was vulnerable at a very short price so I took a stand against. If you liked RA to win, which was obviously the right decision, it would have been absolutely insane to bet the win pool from a risk/reward standpoint. The exacta essentially paid 5-1 odds for a $12 payout and $10.20 net profit. Making $10 in the win pool would have required a $34 bet whereas using that same $34 in a 3/4 exacta would have paid over $200 for a $170 net profit. Even with an overwhelming favorite, a smart handicapper can still make a decent profit.