Four Good Turf Races To Bet This Weekend
Just a week after the Triple Crown season concludes, horse racing offers a great weekend to bet the races. For good reason, many will watch RACHEL ALEXANDRA on Saturday in the G2 Fleur de Lis Hdcp at Churchill Downs & ZENYATTA in the G1 Vanity Hdcp at Hollywood Park on Sunday. Unfortunately, these races probably won’t offer great betting value.
BLAME winning on the Preakness undercard
Particularly appealing are these four turf races:
- The Regret and Jefferson Cup Stakes at Churchill Downs;
- The Da Hoss Stakes at Colonial Downs;
- The Monmouth Stakes at Monmouth Park.
They’ll have large fields of evenly matched horses which should lead to some fantastic payoffs.
The one mile $50K Da Hoss at Colonial may be the best betting race of the weekend with 14 entries and no clear favorite. From a pace perspective, the field has tons of early speed so I’ll play the best closer, #1 VANQUISHER. VANQUISHER is 8-1 on the morning line, but hasn’t won in quite a while so his odds may go even higher. While he should get a solid pace to close into, the biggest concern is traffic and getting a clean trip from the #1 post. Other horses on my exotic tickets will include #5 DUBAI REVIEW (20-1), #7 TARGET SIGHTED (20-1), #8 FRISKY THUNDER (8-1), and #12 BALTIMORE BOB (6-1). Make no mistake, this race is wide open (#4 CHEROKEE ARTIST is lukewarm 4-1 favorite) and the exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers should pay huge prices.
The 8.5 furlong $100K Jefferson Cup for 3-year old colts is equally murky. On paper it looks like morning line favorite #7 LOST APTITUDE and Garret Gomez will try to wire the field. However, he set the pace and tired badly in the G2 American Turf. My play is #8 OUR DOUGLAS (4-1), a horse that knows how to finish. He won a quality first level Allowance on KY Oaks Day and should be competitive. Other horses I like are: #2 GLEAM OF HOPE (8-1), #3 ASPHALT (3-1), #4 GUYS REWARD (3-1), and #6 DON”T TELL KITTEN (15-1).
The 9 furlong $125K G3 Regret Stakes for 3 year old fillies has 13 entries. I’m going outside for a long shot with the lightly raced #12 SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN (12-1). Every one of her races is better than the one before, though Garrett’s decision to ride #8 IT”S TEA TIME (9/2) is a cause for concern. I’m hoping Garrett “regrets” that decision after the race. Other horses I’ll be playing include #4 JOHARMONY (6-1), #5 QUEEN OF THE CREEK (7/2), #8 IT’S TEA TIME (9/2) [sired by DYNAFORMER], and #10 DYNAZAPPER (4-1) [despite the name, not sired by DYNAFORMER].
The 9 furlong $250K G3 Monmouth Stakes has a great matchup between #1 GET SERIOUS and #6 PRESIOUS PASSION. PRESIOUS PASSION is a tough customer that gained everyone’s respect for his game effort in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Turf. Both horses like having the early lead which may lead to a suicidal pace duel. Assuming that happens, I’ll play some closers in the top spots. Going for another price, my pick is #3 FORGOTTEN DYNASTY (10-1), a Dynaformer-sired four year old with the competent Eddie Castro on top. He faced a tough field in the G2 Dixie on the Pimlico undercard and finished 4th in a 12-horse field despite a troubled trip. Other horses I’ll throw in include #2 BALETTI (4-1), #4 DYNAMOOR (9/2) [another Dynaformer!], #1 GET SERIOUS (6-1), and I won’t leave out the always game #6 PRESIOUS PASSION (3-1).
Then, there’s the biggest race of the weekend, the $600K G1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill. This race features one of the best, if not THE best, older handicap horses in the country, BLAME. The way I see it, #2 BATTLE PLAN is BLAME’s biggest threat. BLAME is parked on the far outside while BATTLE PLAN should get a great pace setup as the controlling speed in a field full of stalkers and closers. I think BLAME is one of those special horses that can win in any pace scenario. But it’s going to take a smart ride by Garrett Gomez to stay close to the front. I’m not thrilled with the rider switch to Gomez as Jamie Theriot and BLAME combined for 5 wins and a second in 6 races. Gomez got the last win, but Saturday figures to be a much tougher assignment. The Foster should be a great race to bet and watch.
Good luck at the races!
11 June 2010, 9:30 am
I’m looking forward to seeing Precious Passion again, he’s turned into such a consistent and often times brilliant horse. I would love to see him win big this year and take the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
11 June 2010, 11:39 am
I’m not much for turf racing because it can become very perplexing when the portable rails are moved in and out. The resulting trips can often be headscratchers.
That said, I am looking to see who will support Presious Passion after last week’s results on a hard turf course? Will they factor in the fact that this is a prep race for his United Nations Handicap next month?
11 June 2010, 5:59 pm
Defending champ PRESIOUS PASSION will get a stiff test on the lead from speedy horse-for-course GET SERIOUS and vice-versa. Is PP fit and classy enough to give the cozy rail horse pace pressure, put him away, and hold sway after the poor effort and Dubai trip? Can ‘SERIOUS use his recency to full advantage even if given a mid-race test from a proven G.1 turf animal? Will they hook up in a suicidal speed duel and set up late runners? Are there any late runners classy enough to chase hot fractions, get into striking position, and still finish strong?
Like T_K_S wrote, this will be a tough race to get a handle on. You are a braver man than I.
I’ll take a look at the other races later.
Have fun!
11 June 2010, 10:39 pm
Brian,
I really love the heart PRESIOUS PASSION showed in the BC turf vs. CONDUIT. I think he gained a lot of admirers after that effort. In fact, Brock Sheridan wrote a really nice article on his blog about PP recently.
11 June 2010, 10:53 pm
TKS, AmCap,
MTH’s turf course was a drag strip last weekend with early speed holding a huge advantage. MANDURAH and TWO NOTCH ROAD both wired the field at ~10-1 odds. This week’s rain softened up the course a bit and today’s winners were coming from further back. Notice how the winner of the 6th, TROPICAL SUNSET, was running off the pace.
While PRESIOUS PASSION always fires, he has some negatives: 1) first race back from Dubai, 2) tired badly last race after having and uncontested pace; 3) May get pushed by GET SERIOUS. The wildcard is how will the course be playing tomorrow? We’ll find out in race 5 & 8, but if you don’t like PRESIOUS PASSION’S chances, this just might be the day to beat him.
BTW, I love betting turf races; the predictable unpredictability and typically big fields add to the excitement and money making opportunities.
Check out the Da Hoss tomorrow if you get a chance, it should be wide open.
13 June 2010, 12:40 am
It seems too many people read your blog. The Da Hoss morning line prices vanished.
In the Regret, Nakatani @ 32-1!!! Yikes. The rain there played havoc on the course which resulted in a bomber on top and huge balloons in the exotics. Please say you played “all” over your choice, or at the very least increased your investment to place or even to bet “show”!
Then PSYCHIC KINGDOM put his 25-1 face into 2nd. My selactions, just ahead of your selections that finished 3-4-5-6.
At Mth, it seems the rain did little to soften the course. That was movin’ at 9 furlongs on grass. GET SERIOUS proved he’s serious as far as U.S. turf milers are concerned. I came home and couldn’t believe he was off at 7-1! That’s the last time he’s up that high. ROMAN TIGER really spiced up the exotics.
13 June 2010, 12:43 am
Almost forgot, the Foster…how can you “blame” me for glossing over that G.1 while ZENYATTA seeks more hardware tomorrow.
13 June 2010, 11:22 am
AmCap,
I wasn’t happy to see VANQUISHER get bet down to 5/2 from 8-1. BALTIMORE BOB & FRISKY THUNDER took some action too, so the EX and TRI were not quite the bonanza’s I expected.
The Regret was tough for me because I singled SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN on top of my other selections for the EX and made a sizable win bet. Being forced to maneuver through traffic cost her the race (why didn’t Lenclud take her wide!). Doing an “all” w/ SNOW TOP would have been a smart play seeing as how the $2 EX paid $1,00!! You’re right, Nakatani’s horse should not have been 32-1; especially on “good” turf.
The MTH Stakes was a big disappointment seeing as how PRESIOUS PASSION was off the board, but I didn’t capitalize. I played BALLETO, DYNAMOOR, and FORGOTTEN DYNASTY who all proceeded to crash into one another at the break. GET SERIOUS is one of those “horse for the course” types. He now has 8 wins in 10 races at MTH and 3 wins in 17 races everywhere else.
What about BLAME running down BATTLE PLAN in the Foster? You can throw his BSF out the window; winning from the outside post, racing 4-wide both turns, and beating the controlling pace proves he’s the real deal. Plus, he’s been more reliable than an ATM.
Enjoy ZENYATTA at the Vanity today!!
15 June 2010, 12:47 am
Steve,
Blame isn’t just reliable but has been more profitable than some mutual funds! While I couldn’t find the tri, the win and exacta were decent consolations. If only GIANT OAK had gotten a little more pace to get up for 3rd!!!
How about you on top at The Knight Sky blog??? Great work.
I was shocked when I got home to find that ZENYATTA paid $3. In the walking ring she was 1-9!
Looking ahead, it’s a relatively light graded stakes schedule but two nice turf G.3′s at Colonial are usually really interesting events. PADDY O’ PRADO, DOUBLES PARTNER, and DEAN’S KITTEN are the “known” horses in the Colonial Turf Cup while the filly/mare turf division brings together some usual suspects like TIZAQUEENA and DYNASLEW in the All Along.
Another turf event should be to your liking at Bel, the G.2 New York H. and the noms there are headed by TREAT GENTLY and LADY SHAKESPEARE.
The G.3 Pegasus may represent my first foray to Mth this summer. Among the noms are 1-2-3-4 from the Spend A Buck headed by IBBOYEE and show horse/G.3 Withers S. winner AFLEET AGAIN, Preakness 3rd JACKSON BEND and Tampa Bay Derby 2nd SCHOOLYARD DREAMS.
Enjoy the week!