Weekend Turf Picks
Six-year old gelding VANQUISHER is cross-entered this Saturday in both the 1 mile $100K Battlefield Stakes at Monmouth Park (Race 10) and the 1 and 1/16th mile $100K Sussex Stakes at Delaware Park (Race 10). Based on his strong finish in last month’s Da Hoss Stakes at Colonial Downs, I figure he’s a strong contender in either race at an attractive 6-1 morning line.At Colonial, VANQUISHER was boxed in on the rail and couldn’t get clear running until deep in the stretch. He out-finished FRISKY THUNDER, who easily won his next race, and closed quickly on the winner BALTIMORE BOB.
At Delaware, his main threat appears to be the nicely-bred NICANOR who runs well on the lead and gets a decent turf jock in Jose Valdivia. If Valdivia sets a comfortable pace, NICANOR may be hard to pass in the lane. I also like TYBALT (6-1) and long shots PICK SIX (12-1) and PA-bred SACO RIVER (12-1) to hit the board. PLEASANT STRIKE (8-1) was beaten 27 lengths in his last, but is getting some class relief. NOWNOWNOW and BULLSBAY, making his first start on grass, will take lots of money and I’ll try to beat them both.
At Monmouth in the Battlefield, I like VANQUISHER if he goes, but also giving VIOLON SACRE (5-1 ML) one more shot coming 2nd time off the layoff. Ironically, he’s facing an easier field in this stakes race than in his previous allowance try. WHATSTHESCRIPT (4-1) and MINNIE PUNT (7/2) look appealing and I’ll use in various combinations. For those who let the jockeys do the handicapping, note that Joe Bravo chose to ride MINNIE PUNT over VIOLON SACRE. At 3-1, the NY-bred BANROCK is the favorite and the one I’m playing against.
Saturday’s premier turf race is the $600K G1 Man of War Stakes at Belmont (Race 9). GIO PONTI is the 1-2 morning line favorite in his 2nd race since returning from Dubai.
Sometimes horses regress in form when returning from Dubai. That didn’t seem to be the case with GIO PONTI with a solid 2nd in the G1 Manhattan, but if you’re looking to beat him, I’d go with either STRIKE A DEAL or EXPANSION. EXPANSION ran well to complete the trifecta in the Manhattan and I figure he’ll be in the mix again. With GIO too short to bet, and having no firm opinion he’ll falter, I might sit this one out – maybe.
Good luck this weekend!
10 July 2010, 12:30 pm
I’ll throw in one turf pick from the west coast. Saturday’s 1st race and Hollywood Park is a maiden race going a mile and eighth. The #5 Squad stretches to route and goes 1st time grass. He should be on or near the lead. The pedigree is good for grass and he gets Mike Smith aboard, which leads me to believe that he will go right to the lead. Decent price @ 5/1 on the morning line.
10 July 2010, 12:31 pm
“1st race AT Hollywood Park.
(man me no speak english good.)
10 July 2010, 5:08 pm
Steve,
Thanks for stopping by. Had swim meet to attend this a.m., just back in time to see BLIND LUCK and GIO PONTI get up at the wire. Also BIG DRAMA ran, well, big in the Smile Sprint.
Sorry about VANQUISHER…they picked the wrong spot due to the weather. C’est la vie! Next time.
In the HGC, AG hasn’t been the same on synthetics…he could come alive in this spot as Hol is most dirt-like, but like G.1 winner on synth. RK better as a closer. Still thinking COMPARI can take the track from the field and keep rolling.
Did you see TRAPPE SHOT in the LONG BRANCH??? WOW!
Back at ya’ soon!
10 July 2010, 8:47 pm
Chris,
Some good racing at Hollywood today. I know you were there in person and hope you had another good day at the windows.
Rob,
Think VANQUISHER is sitting on a good race, but we’ll have to see where he runs next to find out. I ended up betting PICKAPOCKET at DEL mostly because I saw him romp at CD in person on the Derby undercard and figured he’d like the wet track. At MTH, I had VIOLON SACRE, but left BANROCK out of the tri. So I had the 1st, 3rd, and 4th finishers, but not BANROCK – ugh! Decent handicapping – poor betting.
As for the HGC, we all knew RAIL TRIP was vulnerable at short-odds. Only question was whether RICHARD’s KID, COMPARI, or AWESOME GEM would get it done. As it turned out, AG was the hero, and like you said, took to HOL’s dirt-like surface.