All Turf, All Stakes Pick 5 at Colonial Downs
For the Virginia Derby, Colonial Downs put together a terrific all turf 14-race card, featuring an “All Stakes Pick 5″ in races 8 thru 12. Throwing caution to the wind, I’ll take a stab at cracking Saturday’s Pick 5.Race 8: $50K stakes at 5.5 furlongs for two-year olds. Tough race to handicap since most two-year olds are lightly raced and many have never raced on grass. So my strategy focuses on pedigree, connections, and proven turf form, if any.
Of 10 starters, I settled #1 Z APPEAL (9/5), #3 THE FLYING WHIZZER (6-1), and #10 LIPSTICK TRACES (12-1). Out of the venerable GHOSTZAPPER, Z APPEAL won by 7 lengths in his first race at Churchill Downs after getting bumped at the start and going five wide. Though untested on grass, Dale Romans should have this colt ready to run. After getting beat over 20 lengths in his first two races on dirt, THE FLYING WHIZZER improved on turf with a nice MSW win at Colonial. A stakes race is a tough spot for a first time starter, but LIPSTICK TRACES gets a vote of confidence from Ramon Dominguez. Also noticed the Dam (MY SWEET WESTLY) has 4 winners from 4 starters; two on the turf. This might be a nice trifecta play too.
Race 9: $50K stakes at 5.5 furlongs for two-year old fillies. Lots of early speed in this race, so I’ll play two horses that can either stalk or come from off the pace: #5 MOLLY MINGUN (3-1) and #9 VALIANT STAR (7/2).
MOLLY MINGUN beat VALIANT STAR in their first race and VALIANT STAR came back to win her next race by 13 lengths. LATIKA is enticing off a 7 length victory, but I’m trying to keep my ticket reasonable and noticed that Eric Camacho seemingly chose to ride VALIANT STAR over LATIKA in this spot.
Race 10: $50K Kitten’s Joy at 8.5 furlongs for older horses. I loved #3 VANQUISHER (7/2) in the one mile Da Hoss stakes and he just missed after getting trapped inside. An extra half furlong and some racing luck may help this time. However, this race looks a little tougher than the last, so I’ll go 5 deep and hope for a bomb. In addition to VANQUISHER, I’ll use #4 SOUTHERN ANTHEM (15-1), #5 FOREST ATTACK (6-1), #6 HAWSER (30-1 “the bomb”), and #7 BALTIMORE BOB (9/2).
BALTIMORE BOB beat VANQUISHER to win the Da Hoss and looks to be in great form. SOUTHERN ANTHEM is an honest turf horse and FOREST ATTACK’s synthetic form may translate well to turf (Dominguez riding is a plus). HAWSER gets another good turf jock in Karamanos and seems to like firm turf – he may blow up the Pick 5.
Race 11: G3 Virginia Oaks at 9 furlongs. With two graded stakes wins on the turf #8 CHECK THE LABEL (7/5) looks like a logical single, but I’m also throwing in #2 SANTA MARTITA (7/2) and #3 MIDWAY HOLIDAY. MARTITA has a solid trainer (Michael Matz) jockey (Javier Castellano) combo and held her own in some tough turf races. MIDWAY is 2 for 2 on turf and don’t want her going 3 for 3 without being on my ticket.
Race 12: G2 Virginia Derby at classic distance of 10 furlongs. Okay, it’s time for my single and no surprise it’s #7 PADDY O’ PRADO (7/5). He romped over a decent field in the Colonial Turf Cup, but now faces three graded stakes winners in #2 KRYTPON, #3 INTERACTIF and #8 STATELY VICTOR. STATELY VICTOR might be a smart play due to the expected pace scenario. However, both STATELY VICTOR and INTERACTIF last raced in the Belmont and wondering if they’ve fully recovered from that tough challenge.
There it is, 90 combinations (out 104,000 possible) over 5 stakes races on the turf. I’d like to use a few more, but you can’t bet them all. Let me know if I missed any winners.
Good luck this weekend!
17 July 2010, 12:41 am
My “Ten cents” about this pick 5:
Race 8: Agree on the same 3 (1,3,10) but would also include the 9, as i think Gibson County will be an decent turf sire.
Race 9: I’m singling the 5 Molly Mingun for the same reasons you pointed out, plus the fact that Mingun progeny have been so profitable to yours truly this year.
Race 10: This is where, if i’m right, i take out about 90% of the tickets out there minimum. I’m going to SINGLE #10 Target Sighted. The extra 1/16th well help, i like the one work in between and the price is going to be juicy with everyone and their mother seeming liking #6 Hawser. (You, Zipse and a couple of others like him.)
Race 11: I’m using the favorite #8 Check the Label, and a Johar filly. But I’m using the #7 Frances Gardner. She is on the improve and will be a big price.
Race 12: Singling #7 Paddy O’Prado like a lot of people.
1,3,9,10 / 5 / 10 / 7,8 / 7
This the spine of the ticket. Depending how i do before, it could be more fleshed out (probably in the 2nd leg), but the single in the 3rd leg will remain one no matter what.
17 July 2010, 11:20 am
I like your Midway Holiday oaks choice, she seems like a pretty decent runner right now.
Paddy O’Prado looks like a winner in the Virginia Derby but I like Stately Victor and Interactif as the mile upsets if Paddy slips up.
Good luck with your pick 5 and have fun!
17 July 2010, 1:22 pm
Good luck Steve…hope you hit. I had the first three in yesterday’s Pick 5 at Monmouth then lost the last two legs when my single/chalk ran up the track and the my 10-1 shot in final leg lost by a nose. Tough to hit, but big rewards if you can get there. Paddy O’Prado is definitely the class in the 1 1/4 mile race filled with speed…
17 July 2010, 6:44 pm
Tencent,
you deserve lots of credit of identifying TARGET SIGHTED as a legit contender in the Kitten’s Joy. I gave him another look based on your advice and put him underneath VANQUISHER in the EX, TRI, and SUPR wagers and it paid off – Thanks! I also threw TARGET SIGHTED in the Pick 5 after FOREST ATTACK scratched. Unfortunately 20-1 winner WINSLET torpedoed my ticket in the 2nd leg; otherwise, it would’ve been a nice payout.
Brian,
PADDY did his thing as expected, but surprised by STATELY VICTOR’s lackluster race. I thought he would’ve hit the board, but he might do better in his next race.
Tony,
Had 4 out of 5, but it was the two-year filly sprint that got me. Won by a horse that’s never raced on turf off a two-month layoff. But some of the speed horses scratched and MOLLY MINGUN didn’t have much of a pace to chase – at least that’s how i’m rationalizing the result.
19 July 2010, 12:59 am
Steve,
Excellent opinions by you and 10 cent on the sequence. That 20-1 would have been hard for anyone not playing the name game or buying the race to have. In hindsight, could you have bought the race structuring your ticket differently?
You had to wait a week for VANQUISHER and he was everything you advertised. Great call.
19 July 2010, 4:47 pm
Thanks AmCap.
I definitely think I could have tried playing multiple tickets in which I used only “A” horses in 4 legs and then went deeper in the remaining leg. When you look at the results, the chalk won 4 of the 5 legs, a bomb coming in leg four. Trying to play all combinations on one ticket made it expensive and left me vulnerable to the unexpected. Expect the unexpected should be a motto when playing multi-race wagers.
However, I also should’ve re-evaluated the pace scenario in leg 2 after several of the speed horses scratched out. So, there’s at least two areas for improvement. More practice needed.
20 July 2010, 12:16 am
There’s always opportunity for practice….next weekend!