Sunday’s Turf Play – $150K San Clemente Handicap
Sunday’s G2 San Clemente Stakes at Del Mar for three year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf has a quality 10-horse field and should provide an excellent wagering opportunity.I like the Lone Star shipper #2 FORTUNIA and hope she goes off higher than her 7/2 morning line. On dirt she was mediocre, but raised her game on the turf with one win and 2 close seconds.
#6 EVENING JEWEL (3-1) is a deserving favorite. She’s a G1 winner who almost beat BLIND LUCK in the Derby Oaks, after all. Three of her four victories come from on the lead; maybe she doesn’t need the lead, but she certainly wins more that way. She’s also carrying 123 lbs compared to 116 for FORTUNIA.
I also like #9 IT TIZ (5-1) who’s two-for-two on the turf and two-for-two at the mile distance. The 19 July bullet workout on Del Mar’s turf course indicates she’s ready to go.
#7 CITY TO CITY (6-1) also has a great shot. She finished 5th as the 2-1 favorite in the 7-horse G2 American Oaks at Hollywood Park, but the mile and a quarter distance may have been too far. Cutting back to 8 furlongs might be just what she needs and that 5th place finish may juice the odds a bit too.
The best of the long shots may be Irish-bred #11 CONNIPTION (20-1). Like CITY TO CITY, she may have found 10 furlongs a bit too far in the American Oaks based on her 6th place finish, 8 lengths back. She’s cutting back in distance and only carrying 114 lbs.
Plenty of options here, though I like FORTUNIA’s chances to win, especially if EVENING JEWEL faces pressure on the lead.
Good luck!
25 July 2010, 4:51 pm
Steve,
We’ve settled on the same filly. FORTUNIA ran huge to multiple graded stakes winner WASTED TEARS in very fast time. She takes a drop in class IMO, from older G.3 types to 3y.o. G.2 fillies. She’s the strong top choice for me.
This is a legitimate G.2 and there are a slew of contenders that would be no surprise if FORTUNIA doesn’t get up.
Out of the Le Cle, I like CRISP best. Rosario could not extricate her early enough to catch IT TIZ.
I’m viewing EVENING JEWEL as vulnerable as well.
CITY TO CITY has a tremendous kick at this trip. There’s plenty of other speed (CRISIS OF SPIRIT, SOUTHERN FIREBALL, SWITCH) to keep EVENING JEWEL from the slow pace she set in the Honeymoon, in which she barely lasted. With Rosario sticking w/ CRISP, Bejarano gets another chance.
My 4th choice is 6-1 SWITCH coming off a win in the Hollywood Oaks where her tactical speed was the difference vs. BLIND LUCK. She may sit the best trip of all and get first run on FORTUNIA, CRISP, and CITY TO CITY.
Of note is CONNIPTION getting in…yours is a shrewd eye my friend. I liked her in the American Oaks and she was 6-1 in a G.1 and today is 20-1 in a G.2. I’ll have to rethink her underneath.
Good luck.
25 July 2010, 8:35 pm
AmCap,
Ugh! FORTUNIA was rank and just wouldn’t relax. I thought 5-1 was a gift, but i knew on the backstretch that she had no shot. Maybe she hadn’t adjusted to Del Mar’s environs after shipping from TX???
EVENING JEWEL ran a nice race and was very impressive in victory. CITY TO CITY ran well too. Hope you had the EVENING JEWEL, CITY TO CITY exacta.