Is There A New Sheriff In Town?
The leader of the male handicap division, QUALITY ROAD, is putting his supremacy on the line in Saturday’s Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga going 9 furlongs over the main track. QUALITY ROAD has dominated the competition in 2010; most notably in a 12+ length victory at Gulfstream Park in the G1 Donn Handicap.The biggest challenge to QUALITY ROAD should come from BLAME, the “Rodney Dangerfield” horse of the past year. He’s 7 for 10 lifetime and never off the board. Despite winning at a 70% clip with four graded stakes victories, he’s only been the post-time favorite twice.
At 4-1 on the morning line, BLAME will offer decent betting value as usual. Since I don’t see a big difference in abilities between these two, I’ll play BLAME to win and on top of the exacta and trifecta. I think he’ll run down QUALITY ROAD at the wire.
The Whitney is the third leg in a tough Pick 3 (Races 8,9,10) & Pick 4 (Races 8 – 11 with a guaranteed $500K pool!). The first leg is the $70K Hattie Moseley Stakes (R8) at 1 mile on the turf. SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN (5/2) should win; she was 2nd in her last two starts and now drops down slightly in class. Since turf races can be unpredictable, I’ll take some shots with potential bombs that may light up the tote: #1 AMBITIONESS (30-1!), #2 PROTESTING (8-1), and #5 SEA ROAD (10-1). Playing against Ailalea (7/2) who’s un-raced on turf.
The second leg is even more brutal, the 7 furlong Grade I Test Stakes (Race 9). I’ll play #1 PICA SLEW (7/2), but she’s no sure thing as she’s unproven at 7 furlongs and there’s lots of speed to her outside. I’m using: #2 BUCKLEUPBUTTERCUP (6-1), #4 BONNIE BLUE FLAG (6-1), #7 BELLE OF THE HALL (10-1), and #8 ASH ZEE (10-1). Tough race.
#3 QUALITY ROAD will be a single on most tickets in the 3rd leg, so a win by #2 BLAME as I expect will juice the payout. It’s a $20 Pick 3 ticket without QUALITY ROAD, but he’s just way too good at this distance to leave off the ticket.
Leg 4 is a state-bred Maiden Separate Weight (R11) at one mile on the turf. Last year, Linda Rice and Ramon Dominguez were hot and I’ll hope they regain their winning form by playing #10 TALK THERAPY (6/5). A DQ in the last race keeps him racing against maidens.
Good luck!
07 August 2010, 10:19 am
Maybe today is the day that BLAME gets some respect? I think the 2/5 ML on QUALITY ROAD was a little aggressive.
07 August 2010, 12:29 pm
Hey Steve, good luck on your picks!
Blame seems to get overlooked in many cases, I do it far too often. I did like him to win in his last four but I just think Quality Road is going to run rampant here. He seems to run best with long periods of time between races and he hasn’t run since the Met Mile on May 31st so he should be nice and sharp.
How about Lisa’s Booby Trap’s race yesterday, wasn’t that impressive?!
08 August 2010, 12:07 am
Dylan, what a great race! Blame made a pretty good case he’s the best handicap horse in the country. Five in a row including 2 G1 wins. And you could argue last year’s Clark Hdcp was a G1 in all but name given the strength of field (it’s a G1 this year). I don’t know what else he needs to do.
Brian,
I was very worried about the favorable pace setup Quality Road was going to get. QR really had no excuses, he was cruising on the lead going 24 and 48 in the 1st quarter and half mile.
And one thing i noticed about the race; Gomez never went to the whip. Blame beat QR with a handride, That tells me we haven’t seen the best of Blame yet. Look out!
Btw, I did watch Lisa’s Booby Trap; very impressive and one of the great stories in horse racing today!
09 August 2010, 12:57 pm
Blame was stunning in the Whitney, he proved himself the best horse by a mile! I noticed the same thing when I was watching the race, just a vigorous hand ride was all it took to nip Quality Road in the final few strides. It’s going to be a very interesting Breeders’ Cup Classic if everyone shows up!
11 August 2010, 1:45 am
Steve,
Great prognositcation on the Whitney!
I’m glad that you cashed, but I am not a fan of John Velazquez’ ride. He and Kent D. should both have herniated discs in their necks because they peek back under their shoulders so many times during a race when on the lead. I think QR gave up his biggest advantage, tactical speed, by slowing the pace to a crawl. In a sprint to the wire, if BLAME is within striking distance, he’s a tough horse to hold off. However, if QR had gotten to the mile in 1:35 2/5 ,which is well within his grasp, BLAME would not have been able to match that momentum.
Is there any chance QR’s rating tactics were designed to get him to relax off what could be a pretty quick early pace, in an effort to hold of a certain mare in Cali come BC Classic day?
Is BLAME the equal of ZENYATTA down the lane?
Still on vacation…will check back when I can.
Rob
11 August 2010, 8:00 am
AmCap,
Hope you’re enjoying the vacation!
Some were critical of Johnny V’s ride and maybe he got schooled a little by Garrett Gomez. But as you know, a normal jockey tactic when you’re the controlling speed is to slow down the pace to save energy for the stretch drive; Johnny V was just following conventional wisdom. I really thought the slow the fractions were a disadvantage to BLAME. Derek Ryan thought the same thing and was pissed that Dominguez didn’t have HAYNESFIELD force QR to run faster (but MUSKET MAN was running for 3rd money no matter what IMO!). And BLAME’s last loss was in the Super Derby when REGAL RANSOM was just walking on the front and BLAME had no chance .
To be honest, I just think BLAME is better than QR, especially in races longer than 8 furlongs. IMO QR is a miler and he romped in the Donn because GP was a drag strip AND he had no serious competition.
As for BLAME vs. ZENYATTA? Hopefully that will get answered in the BC10 Classic. All I know is that BLAME is her most serious challenger.