Garden City Recap – Good News, Bad News
In last Saturday’s Garden City Stakes at Belmont we were proven correct in our skepticism of Gozzip Girl at 2-5 odds. Her off the board finish was good news as we were playing against her short price based on the layoff and yielding turf conditions. The bad news is we completely overlooked Miss World who cruised to victory. Shared Account and Keertana ran nice races as we had expected, however, our other choices, Pull Dancer and longshot Katara, brought up the rear.A 1-2 exacta finish by Shared Account and Keertana would have paid nicely as the 3rd and 4th choices overall. Miss World dashed our hopes and her backers were rewarded with a $29 win payout (the exacta paid $202).
A lot of post-race attention was paid to Gozzip Girl’s early stumble but Miss World won despite having a rough trip of her own. In tight quarters on the first turn, she was bumped, steadied, and then forced to run wide the rest of the way. Despite the setbacks, she still made a powerful 4-wide move on the final turn to get the lead. While Gozzip Girl had tons of trouble early, she was in striking position heading for home. Miss World’s win was no fluke and plan to keep an eye out for her next start. However, the days of getting 13-1 odds are probably over.
I dismissed Miss World’s chances because of her lack of experience in stakes races. Prior to the Garden City she had only won a $44K Maiden and an Allowance. Before those races, she was winless in five starts against Maidens. In a tough field with several stakes winners I thought she was a cut below; not to mention her Beyer speed figures were a little light.
However, another look at the PPs showed positive signs. Her previous two consecutive wins came in route races over a mile whereas all of her losses were in one-turn sprints. She’s now undefeated in turf races over a mile and seems a different horse around two turns. Furthermore, speed figures can be helpful in dirt races, but not so much for turf races.
What’s great about turf races is their predictable unpredictability. As opposed to dirt races, horses typically run slow early and then start sprinting home rounding the final turn. Poor positioning and traffic trouble can compromise a good horse’s chances. Likewise, a jockey who navigates traffic well and knows when to make his/her move can improve a horse’s chances. We saw that in the Garden City with Cornelio Velazquez’s confident and eventful ride of Miss World.
