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Super Derby Preview

Though I’m hesitant to play any stakes race with the name “super” in it, let’s take a stab at the Louisiana Downs Super Derby, a grade II at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt.

The morning line favorite Soul Warrior is coming off a victory over Big Drama and Mine That Bird in the West Virginia Derby, winning by a neck at 23-1 odds.  By all accounts Big Drama should have won that race and Mine That Bird may not have fired his best shot.  In the Super Derby, Soul Warrior is a likely underlay at 2-1 or less when another victory is far from assured.

I see a good alternative in Regal Ransom.  He has tons of graded stakes experience and a G2 win to his credit in the Dubai Derby.  In a race filled with stalkers and closers, he likes to be near the front and should be forwardly placed throughout if not leading the field.  I worry about his 4-month layoff after finishing 8th in the KY Derby, but the workouts show he’s training well.

Blame also has a decent shot.  He’s 3 for 5 lifetime with all 3 wins coming with current jockey Jamie Theriot onboard.  His last race earned him the highest speed figure in the field, but that was in a non-graded stakes race. He’s definitely competitive in this field but may get overlooked.  He hasn’t raced in 48 days–a good bit of rest, but not too much, I’m betting.

Here’s my $100 play: $10 exacta box 4,5 (Regal Ransom & Blame); $10 trifecta 4,5 / 4,5 / 2,6,7; and $20 to win on #5 Blame if his odds drift up to 9-2 or higher, otherwise I’ll play Regal Ransom.  Soul Warrior should hit the board, but if he flops I’ll get a nice trifecta payout with either Electric Alphabet or Uno Mas.  Of course, if Soul Warior finishes better than 3rd I’m toast.  I have to throw out Red Lead who has only a maiden win to his credit and Massone who’s only raced on turf or polytrack.

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