Preview – G2 Gallant Bloom Handicap
The $150K, 6.5 furlong, G2 Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont on Saturday is a Breeder’s Cup “Win and You’re In” race for the Filly and Mare Sprint. Does anybody care? Not me, I’m concerned about how to bet the race.At first glance it looks like a glorified match race between the two favorites: Indian Blessing (8-5) and Sara Louise (7-5). Indian Blessing won last year’s Gallant Bloom and is a multiple G1 stakes winner. Sara Louise’s claim to fame is being the last horse to beat Rachel Alexandra.
Any Limit (8-1) and Thunders Dove (6-1) figure to be contenders as well. Any Limit tries hard each race (except on poly) and the jockey / trainer combo of Cornelio Velasquez and Allen Jerkens demand respect. She’s most dangerous running loose on the lead but that seems unlikely with Thunders Dove in the race. Thunders Dove also likes to be out front early and has a 5-race win streak.
I’m dying to play Any Limit or Thunders Dove at odds of 6-1 or higher, but can foresee these two battling it out in a speed duel that leaves both winded at the finish. If Indian Blessing presses the pace, she may tire as well. The predicted pace scenario will create a nice set up for our girl Sara Louise to fly by in the stretch.
Here’s my play: #3 Sara Louise on top and box Indian Blessing (#2), Any Limit (#5), and Thunders Dove (#6) underneath in exacta and trifecta tickets. It’s a total chalk play but I can’t make a case for either the 1 (American Queen), 4 (Sky Haven) or 7 (P.S.U. Grad) to seriously threaten the exacta. Sky Haven may get up for third if the pacesetters tire badly and may be worth a play on bottom of the trifecta.
There are some areas to be concerned about: 1) Sara Louise may “bounce” off her very fast last race, and 2) jockey Edgar Prado isn’t exactly tearing up Belmont’s fall meet. But “pace makes the race” so I’m sticking with my strategy. If Any Limit or Thunders Dove scratch, I’ll consider betting the remaining speed horse for a wire-to-wire win at a price.
