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High on Grass – Arlington Million Edition

There may be eight million stories in the naked city, but there’s $200,000 and then some up for grabs in the Windy City in Arlington Park’s all-turf stakes middle pick 4 tomorrow, headlined by the G1 Arlington Million. For the sake of this post, let’s not focus on how bad a transition that was. Here’s Derek’s (AKA NJDerek) analysis and ticket for the sequence:

Arlington Park Race 7 – Hatoof Stakes ($65K) – 8F (turf) – 4:19 post (EDT)

Outside posts are always a tough proposition, especially at a mile on grass. However, that’s where I’m looking with my top selection of #11 NOTASSHARPASUTHINK (5-1).  She’s getting better with every race and should get a nice stalking trip under jockey James Graham.  She has a bit of an edge in Thorograph figures over the field and offers good value at anywhere near her morning line odds.

I’ll also add #3 SAFE CROSSING (6-1) and #4 HAPPY CHOICE (6-1), with a slight edge to the latter. It’s tough to tell how good SAFE CROSSING is coming off a maiden win on turf and a low level AOC that was taken off the turf.  However, she’s shown the versatility to win from on the lead or closing into a slow pace, so I don’t want to miss it if Saturday is her coming out party.  HAPPY CHOICE becomes especially live if the track comes up less than firm, which looks like a distinct possibility.  Her best race to date came over a yielding Arlington turf course at the distance of Saturday’s race.

If scratches give #13 ALLURING SQUALL (4-1) the chance to draw in, I’ll seriously consider adding her.  While only coming off a maiden win, she has the pedigree and improving Thorograph figures to be a legitimate contender in this spot.

Race 8 – G.1 Secretariat Stakes ($400K) – 10F (turf) – 4:52 (EDT)

#3 TREASURE BEACH (2-1) will take a lot of money, and I have zero interest in him.  Between Aiden O’Brien’s terrible record with shippers to the U.S. and reports that he didn’t look good galloping at Arlington on Friday, I can’t play him at such short odds.  My top pick is # 7 BANNED (3-1).  He’s looked absolutely tremendous this year, and reunites with Garret Gomez, who absolutely fits the horse’s closing style to a tee.  Coming off a huge race at the same distance just four weeks ago puts him at risk for a bounce, so I’ll hedge with # 9 WILCOX INN (9/2) and #2 ZIYARID (10-1).

WILCOX INN could end up lone speed, and he clearly loves the Arlington turf course.  ZIYARID, in all honesty, is a complete unknown to me.  He will have no problem with the distance and the “other Euro” angle is often live.  In my horizontal wagers, I’ll be using #6 SUNTRACER (15-1) underneath.  He’ll likely be dead last through much of the race, but he’s a half brother to Free Fighter, who was a very good turf runner for the Team Block connections and looks like he appreciates good to yielding turf.

Race 9 – G.1 Beverly D. Stakes ($750K) – 9.5F (turf) – 5:33 (EDT)

This is another case of a less than appealing favorite in #1 STACELITA (3-1). Can she win? Sure. Am I willing to take a short price on a second time Euro whose Thorograph figures are on par with others in the field? Negative.  Once again, I’m looking outside and towards Team Block with #11 NEVER RETREAT (10-1).  She’s run very well over yielding turf courses and comes in on 34 days rest – exactly the time I look for from a horse that just ran a new top figure.  She’s going to be forwardly placed, and the long run to the first turn should make it easy for her to overcome the outside post.

A horse that’s very live is #6 RIVER JETEZ (4/1). Michael De Kock always spots his horses well, so when he ships an eight year old to the U.S. and runs them on Lasix for the first time, I take notice.  If you look at the company lines she’s kept this year, a distinct class edge over the rest of this field becomes quite evident.

I’ll also add #3 FANTASIA (5-1) and #7 CHEETAH (9/2), with a slight edge to the former.  FANTASIA has run very respectably this year, but look at how she woke up over this course and distance last out. I’m guessing that the races earlier in the year were just too short for her liking, and a wet turf course won’t be a problem for her.  It’s tough to tell how good CHEETAH is. She looks to be the best of the closers, but needs the pace to close into.  She’d be a tough horse to have knock me out of the sequence, so I’m keeping her on the ticket, albeit with some trepidation.

GIO PONTI headlines Saturday's Arlington Million

Race 10 – G.1 Arlington Million ($1M) – 10F (turf) – 6:15 (EDT)

This race is a conundrum for me. Every runner in here has as much downside as up, and 8 of the 10 runners have a chance of winning.   I’m really against #7 CAPE BLANCO (9/5) – Euro bounce, O’Brien’s terrible numbers shipping, but he’s sure got a class edge and handled #5 GIO PONTI (2-1) and #8 MISSION APPROVED (6-1) pretty easily.  I’d hate to catch longshots in the early legs and have him knock me out, so I’m using him.

My top picks – again with the “other Euro” angle – are #4 ZACK HALL (10-1) and #9 WIGMORE HALL (8/1). Under-the-radar European horses have typically done very well in this race, and from a Thorograph figure standpoint both fit very well.  I will also add two a U.S. horse in #1 RAHYSTRADA (12-1). and #2 TAJAAWEED (12-1).  Both have  RAHYSTRADA has to answer the class question, but is in excellent form and his best race could find him in the winner’s circle.

My $.50 ticket:

Leg 1: 1,3,4,11

Leg 2: 2,7,9

Leg 3: 3,6,7,11

Leg 4: 1,2,4,5,7,9

Total cost: $120

Update 11:45 am ET: Okay, I think I was off by using TAJAWEED and not GIO PONTI, so I’ve modified my ticket with the swap.  Looking back at it, TAJAWEED’s best race could win this, but I think that race may have come last out in the Arlington Classic. I’m not 100 percent sold on GIO PONTI, but, like CAPE BLANCO, he’d be a pretty dumb one to leave off and have him knock me out of the sequence.

Update 1:30 pm ET: In leg 1, I was on the fence with #1 RACE TO URGA. Even though she’ll likely go off at low odds,  I wasn’t feeling 100 percent confident with my coverage only three-deep, so I’m adding her. It does add $30 to my ticket, which feels like a small price to pay for greater piece of mind.

I gave a quick look at the Sword Dancer at Saratoga. #3 RAHY’S ATTORNEY (8-1) looks like lone speed, which has pretty much meant an express trip to the winner’s circle. I didn’t like #5 BOISTEROUS’s (4-1) last race at all, so I think he’s an underlay anywhere near his morning line odds. I’ll try to round out the exacta with #2 GRASSY (5-1) simply because if Javier Castellano were on foursquare, he’d be the mayor of the Saratoga turf course. As always, I’ll post spot plays on Twitter (NJDerek) and the WirePlayers Facebook page.  Leave a comment to let me know who you’re playing, and best of luck with all your wagers.    

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