Are the Best Horseplayers Nihilists?
In many ways the sport of horse racing is a femme fatale; you love its intrinsic beauty and mysterious ways, but you don’t quite trust it, you know it doesn’t love you back, and if you’re not careful, it’ll be your undoing.After betting the races for over two decades I can’t say I know anything about handicapping for certain, but I suspect a lot. Upon reflecting on my exploits as a horseplayer, I offer the following observations, which may or may not be true, that other bettors may find consistent with their own experiences.
- The best races to bet are “obvious” – those races where you have a metaphysical certitude on the outcome of a 9 or higher (on a scale of 1 to 10) . Admittedly, these races are rare, but they do happen (and you’ll know when it does).
- A sure way to screw up an “obvious” race is to over think it and second guess your own skills and instincts.
- Conversely, if you have no earthly clue which horse (or subset of horses) will win a race or how the race will unfold, no amount of staring at the PPs will help.
- The more you play the races, the more cynical you will become – not just about horseracing, but about everything.
- Being a contrarian is one of the greatest talents a horseplayer can possess.
- The more you follow the races, the more all other sports will pale in comparison.
- When you tell someone which horse you think will win, it almost always loses. However, if you buy a stranger a win ticket out of pocket the horse usually wins.
- Someone once said, “If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans.” I’ll add, if you want to make a parimutuel teller laugh, tell him (or her) which horse will win the next race.
- Form your own opinions and never let anyone talk you off a horse you like or let them talk you on a horse you don’t. However, there’s little harm in giving a 2nd look to a horse someone else likes (but you don’t).
- As Aldous Huxley once said, “the more you see the more you know;” watching live races, studying race replays, and making trip notes are foundations for success and allow you to see and know more than most of your fellow bettors.
- Whenever you lose a race, you obviously bet too much; whenever you win, you obviously didn’t bet enough.
- If people that charged money for handicapping tips consistently made money playing the races, they wouldn’t waste time shilling their picks.
- Horseplayers want more people to begin betting the races because they assume amateurs in the pool will improve their ROI (but it probably won’t).
- It’s hard to win money solely by picking winners and betting WPS; playing the exotic pools (exactas, trifectas, Pick Xs) offer tremendous risk/reward opportunities and a chance for long-term profit.
- Putting together collaborative Pick 6 tickets with other horseplayers is only fun when you win (which is of course rare); otherwise, your filled with regret over concessions and comprises.
- Assumptions, biases, false inclinations, and accepting published reports as “gospel” will lead you astray while maintaing total objectivity will lead to handicapping success. However, achieving total objectivity is easier said than done and may ultimately lead to Nihilism.
So, could the best horseplayers be Nihilists? Oh God, I hope not!
