High on Grass – Ft. Lauderdale Edition
Race 10 at Gulfstream on Saturday offers a sneak peak into the male turf division for 2012, with the running of the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G3). The weather forecast calls for sunny skies and temps in the 70s, so I’ve handicapped for firm turf. Post time is scheduled for 4:45 ET, so lets take a look at the field.1. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN (15-1) – Word from his connections is that they’ve been looking for a spot to run him on turf, and his pedigree certainly suggests he’ll handle it. The fact that he’s aggressively spotted indicates a high level of confidence that he’ll run well. He adds blinkers and Rajiv Marragh stays on board. If he’s able to work out a good trip from the rail, he could offer some good value in the exotics.
2. SANTIVA (20-1) – Looking like a winner at the top of the stretch in his first race off a six-month layoff and first time over the grass, a move forward makes him a logical contender. That said, he’s a tough to like a horse with only one win in nine starts to his credit, and is often overbet. His pedigree is is heavy on turf influences, but he’s too slow in the speed figure department for me to play aggressively.
3. GUYS REWARD (12-1) – He’s always given a credible showing on turf, but another who just doesn’t win very often. He’ll be running late, but picks up his sixth rider in as many races and simply isn’t a stakes-caliber horse.
4. YUMMY WITH BUTTER (10-1) – He could end up the value play of the race of his last two races where he ran poorly closing out his 2011 campaign over a yielding course at Belmont and sprinting over Tampa’s main track. Looking back at his races over firm turf at Monmouth over the summer, he didn’t run a bad race. He reunites with Paco Lopez, who guided him to two G3 wins over the summer, and he’s got a versatile running style to be a major factor in this spot.
5. MUTUAL TRUST (3-1) – A group one winner in France last year, he makes is first start in the U.S. off a five-month layoff for new trainer Bill Mott. He’s worked steadily at Palm Meadows and on paper looks to be the most logical winner. The problem becomes, you just don’t know how he’s going to take to Gulfstream’s course and U.S. racing, and likely won’t offer much value. I’ll hedge a few bets with him on top, but will look elsewhere for the winner.
6. MAMBO MEISTER (12-1) – Always game, but a completely different horse when not running over Calder’s main track. He’s also never one at the distance and has a bad habit of struggling to pass horses.
7. TEAKS NORTH (8-1) – Ran some excellent turf races last year, but also ran as many clunkers. This is likely the level where he fits best, but the fact that trainer Justin Sallusto couldn’t draw a better rider than Juan Leva is a bit of a concern. He did win the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap in his only race over the course last year, but I think this race is purely a prep to try and repeat, so I’m not expecting very much.
8. FLAT OUT (6-1) – A win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic would have made him a logical contender for Horse of the Year, but now he’s simply trying to regain his credibility. It’s tough to like a one-paced horse that’s never raced on grass and battled health issues his entire career. His lone work over Gulfstream’s turf course was respectable, but he won’t offer much value and will need to show me he can handle grass before I’m a believer.
9. HOLLINGER (8-1) – Roger Attfield and John Velazquez are so dangerous on any turf course, simply because you just never know when a horse that looks overmatched on paper is going to step up and run a huge race. That said, I’m willing to pass on this one, because it seems like he’d prefer shorter distances and hasn’t had a layoff in six months.
10. SILVER MEDALLION (4-1) – Winner of the Tropical Turf Handicap at Calder in December, and in the exacta in five of seven turf races, he looks to be the most logical winner. Anywhere near his morning line odds make him excellent value, but I think he’ll drift down and end up the post time favorite. It took him a while to get good, but he’s in the best form of his career since Pletcher moved him back to turf in October. Castellano is one of the best turf riders in the country and he’s got the best late speed in the field. The race should set up ideally for him, but the outside post is a bit of a concern.
11. HOOFIT (15-1) - A polytrack specialist with less than stellar form on turf in Europe, the distance looks beyond what he wants to run. However, he’s turned in a pair of solid works over the Palm Meadows turf course, and Graham Motion typically spots his horses very well.
12 – KINDERGARDEN KID (12-1) – Interesting to see Julien Leparoux end up here, as he doesn’t ride very often for trainer Barclay Tagg. The horse’s best races have come in allowance/optional claiming company and he’s never started from a post this wide.
Once you look past MUTUAL TRUST and SILVER MEDALLION, the race looks wide open. It shapes up as a great betting race, since many of these offer tremendous value. Gulfstream tends to favor horses on or near the lead, and horses in the outside posts are at a distinct disadvantage. I’m willing to give YUMMY WITH BUTTER the nod, hoping the return to firm turf will get him back on track. He could end up as lone speed, and should work out an ideal trip from the four post.
Hype and underachieving aside, 20-1 on SANTIVA is crazy. He was 9/2 last out and only lost by a neck. if new rider Jesus Castanon times his move a little better, he could be in the mix at the end. TEAK’S NORTH and HOLLINGER are both wild cards. If either run their best race they will certainly in the mix, but the lack of consistency is a bit worrisome and not sure the latter wants this distance.
I’ll use both of the favorites, but lean heavier on SILVER MEDALLION, and use MUTUAL TRUST in some saver exotics. I’ll also use SANTIVA and UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN sparingly underneath.
Picks:
10. SILVER MEDALLION
4. YUMMY WITH BUTTER
7. TEAK’S NORTH
Leave a comment to let me know who you’re playing or let me know on Twitter (@NJDerek). Best of luck with all your wagers.
13 January 2012, 10:54 pm
Derek,
Silver Medallion, Mutual Trust, Yummy With Butter LS: Uptowncharlybrown
I’m with you that Silver Medallion (on pace) and Mutual Trust (on class) tower over this field. If Yummy with Butter runs back to the NJ turf races (while disregarding his last two), I think he stalks and gets first run on the lead group. I also think UCB moves up with the addition of blinkers and drawing an inside post on a GP course with a speed-friendly rail setting.