Can Aristotle Make You A Better Handicapper?
In an attempt to explain why things happen Greek philosopher Aristotle developed an analytical scheme known as the “Four Causes.” It included 1) Material 2) Formal 3) Efficient 4) Final.
Aristotle
Aristotle believed his framework had widespread applicability and it may be a useful framework for handicapping horse races.
1) Material – meaning what an object is made of such as wood, gold, silver, etc. For horse racing we’ll translate this to the “Essence” or “Character” of each horse.
An obvious element of a horse’s “essence” is pedigree – was the horse bred for stamina, distance, or speed? Or, how have other horses bred by the sire or dam performed in certain conditions (on turf or on wet tracks)? Of course, pedigree can be obscured in which a horse bred for stamina is primarily entered, for whatever reason, in sprints or vice versa.
Beyond breeding there are observed characteristics that indicate running styles (a horse may prefer to lead, press the pace, stalk, or come from way off the pace) or surface preferences such as fast dirt tracks, synthetic tracks, wet track, or turf (firm or soft).
Additional characteristics may reveal a horse’s nature. A horse may not to be able rate or when passed by other horses cannot re-rally. Others may need a target to run at and chase down. Obtaining a full understanding of a horse’s essential nature (pedigree, racing characteristics, competitive spirit, etc, etc) is an important piece of the puzzle.
2) Formal – meant by Aristotle to include pattern or shape, but we’ll translate to mean what horseplayers commonly refer to as “form.” Is the horse in good form, bad form, rounding into form, or in a period of decline?
As with human athletes, equine athletes are not always 100%. Since unfortunately horses can’t talk, we have to interpret their fitness by studying form cycles. Some horses will follow predictable cycles where they perform better in their 2nd or 3rd start off a layoff and may drop off in form after a particularly stressful or arduous race. Other horses may need plenty of rest between starts and perform best in their first race after a layoff.
There’s not only the shape (or form) of the horse, but the shape of the race – meaning how will it play out. By understanding each horse’s characteristics, we can predict how the race is likely to unfold. For instance, in a race with several horses that need the lead, they may engage in a speed duel causing them to fatigue dramatically in the stretch. Or a race devoid of early speed, may allow the lone speed demon to run free and cruise to the finish.
3) Efficient – Aristotle used this to indicate whether the subject in question was undergoing change or was stable. And wouldn’t you know it, understanding “change” is a powerful handicapping angle!
Assessing “change” and how a particular change will affect a horse either positively or negatively is a CRITICAL component of handicapping. Change can be in the type of race (sprint vs route), race conditions (state bred vs open, allowance vs claiming, overnight stake vs graded stake), equipment (blinkers “on” or “off,” shoes, wraps, etc.), personnel (aka “connections” such as a new trainer, jockey, owner), or even medical procedures (gelding a colt or performing a myectomy).
Identifying and understanding the potential impact of “change” cannot be over emphasized and will provide an advantage over novice horseplayers.
4) Final – Aristotle used to indicate the subject’s purpose. We can translate this to an assessment of the horse’s purpose for being in the race. The obvious answer is “to win,” but that’s not always the case.
Entering a horse in a specific race may be the result of vanity of the owner or trainer (and we see this each year as horses are entered into the Derby that have little to no chance of winning). A trainer may be trying to help the racing secretary fill a race (as a favor to the track for stall space or perhaps in exchange for a future more favorably drawn race condition). Another common objective is to prep for a future, more lucrative race (e.g., racing in a route in order to cut back to a sprint).
In sum, it’s the expectation (by the owner, trainer or jockey) that a given horse could win a particular race. And not every trainer clearly expects a horse to win every race.
We see this with jockeys dropping one horse to ride another. Clearly they expect their new mount to perform better; and sometimes they’ll ride one horse at the request of an owner or trainer in return for of better mounts in the future.
In summary, our Aristotelian handicapping factors (4 Causes) are:
1) Material (Essence / Character) – What does the horse’s pedigree and observed behavior tell you about their expected performance
2) Formal (Form) – What type of shape is the horse in and what form is the race itself expected to take
3) Efficient (Change) – What has changed since last race and how are the changes likely to effect this race
4) FInal (Purpose / Expectations) – What can we tell about the intent (or purpose) of the owner, trainer, or jockey for entering (or riding) a specific horse in a specific race
An obvious problem with Aristotle’s construct is that it’s based on factors that are “knowable.” There is much in horse racing that is unknowable, and some of what we believe to know, may actually be wrong. Unless we talk to the trainer or owner we can only speculate about their intent. Likewise, we won’t usually know about recent medical procedures or a change in diet or supplements that may affect a horse’s performance.
However, based on what we do know we try our best to interpret that information, draw conclusions, and formulate “betable” opinions.
This isn’t everything a horseplayer needs to know or even should consider when handicapping (not by a long shot!), but it provides a framework to build upon and add more factors. And keep in mind that handicapping a race is but one small piece of the puzzle; knowing how to properly bet the race will make you a successful horseplayer.
