Who Is Ponce de Leon? Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes Preview
Gulfstream Park’s $400k Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes takes the Sunday spotlight. Very few Fountain of Youth winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby (Thunder Gulch in 1995 was the most recent and before that, Spectacular Bid in 1979), but several have gone on to successful stud careers (notably 1997 winner Pulpit and recent winners First Samurai [2006] and Scat Daddy 2007]). So if history is any indication, the 2012 champ may not find the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle, but may have a lasting impact on the sport nonetheless.Race 11 – 8.5 furlongs (1 and 1/16 miles) – Post time 5:13 (eastern)
The biggest news today is the scratch of favorite #2 ALGORITHMS (8/5) due to a popped splint. It remains to be seen whether this injury will take him off the Derby trail completely. An interesting backstory is jockey Javier Castellano’s decision to ride ALGORITHMS over UNION RAGS (on whom he was the regular rider and guided to a 2nd place in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). It can be a tough decision when a jockey has the mount on several great horses in the same division, but this decision may be coming back to haunt Javy sooner than he could have anticipated.
The defection of ALGORITMS leaves a field of seven and will change the complexion of the race. The greatest threats to win appear to be Todd Pletcher’s #5 DISCREET DANCER (3-1) and Michael Matz’s #7 UNION RAGS (2-1). DISCREET DANCER is 2 for 2 lifetime and will be trying both stakes company and 2 turns for the first time. He’s also a Florida bred which makes him, along with #3 FORT LOUDON (20-1), eligible for a $100K bonus if he wins.
Looking at the probable race dynamics it appears DISCREET DANCER will be the early speed and take the field as far as he can, which may be the finish line if he can set an easy pace. He could face early pace pressure from #4 CASUAL TRICK (8-1) and set things up from a fast closing UNION RAGS. A question of course being how sharp is UNION RAGS off the layoff since November 5th. Another question bettors must ask themselves is whether or not this is really just a two-horse race.
A potential wild card is the Nick Zito-trained #4 CASUAL TRICK (8-1). He was the favorite over the highly regarded El Padrino and Take Charge Indy in his last race, but was beaten by over 30 lengths. However, his stumbled start and the sloppy track conditions may be legitimate excuses. If you throw out the last race, he looks to fit and might get first run on DISCREET DANCER in the stretch. With DISCREET DANCER and UNION RAGS expected to be at short prices, CASUAL TRICK may be the value play. And if Gulfstream Park gets an afternoon shower muddying the track, #8 CSABA (20-1) has proven to like the slop.
Good Luck!
