11 Horse Racing Betting Angles
Here are a few tried and true betting angles to complement your handicapping strategy. There’s tons of others and I’d like to hear about your favorites.
1) 2nd or 3rd start off a layoff: Horses usually improve in their 2nd or 3rd start off a layoff (60 days or longer unraced). Alternatively, horses coming off very long layoffs (6 months or so) may not run to their normal form in the first race back.
2) Workouts: Look at workout times in relation to other horses working at the same distance. A horse’s relative ranking is more useful than the actual times as track conditions vary from day to day. Seeing that a horse was 1st fastest out of 5 is not as helpful a data point as seeing the 2nd fastest of 48. Bullets (best time of the day at a certain distance) are a good sign and several bullet works indicate the horse is primed. Location of the workout should also be considered; meaning bullet works at Penn National are usually less impressive than the 3rd fastest of 48 at Saratoga or Belmont.
3) Recent change in form: When a horse with consistent form improves suddenly, try to figure what caused the turn around. It could be a change in track surface, race distance, equipment (blinkers, shoes), etc. There’s usually an explanation and if you identify the cause, you can determine if the current race conditions will help or hurt the horse’s chances. For example, if a horse dramatically improved routing vs. sprinting and the next race is a route, you can assume the improved form will continue. On the other hand, if this is a sprint, a return to previous form is likely.
4) Horse for the course: Some horses, for whatever reason, run well at certain tracks. We’ve seen horses go 2 for 30 lifetime but were 2 for 2 at one specific track. Why? They may like the track’s surface, configuration, or even the general environment makes them feel more comfortable. Horse can be quirky and sometimes it’s hard to pin down exactly why they may like, or hate, certain tracks. Regardless, an exceptionally good record at a specific track should not be discounted.
5) Long-distance shippers with the jock: It’s a good sign when a horse ships in from far away and the regular jockey makes the trip as well. We’re not talking about shipping from Laurel to Philly Park. We’re talking about a trip requiring an airline ticket and a hotel. The longer the trip, the better I like the horse’s chances. For instance, if a horse ships from the UK and the Euro-based jockey comes along too; well that’s a long, expensive flight and the jock will be losing several mounts back home. You know they’re not traveling that far to pick-up $75 for running fifth.
6) First time Lasix: Handicappers believe horses improve noticeably when given lasix, a legal anti-bleeding medication, for the first time. You’ll usually see an “L” inside a dark circle in the program to indicate first time lasix. Almost all U.S.-based horses run on lasix, so this angle applies more to foreign shippers or lightly-raced horses. This isn’t a betting angle I live or die by, but many handicappers swear by its effectiveness.
7) Equipment changes: Example of equipment changes are things such as shoe changes or adding blinkers. Factoring in shoe changes is useful because a horse may not have handled the track well in previous races, but adding mud caulks may improve their performance by several lengths. Adding or removing blinkers usually changes a horse’s running style, too. For example, adding blinkers generally causes horses to show more early speed. In a race without horses that like to run on the lead, a horse adding blinkers has a shot of getting out front early and leading wire to wire.
8 ) Jockey switches off a winner: Let’s say a talented jockey rode a horse to victory in its previous race but decides to ride another horse instead. You must assume the jock, for whatever reason, thinks the new mount has a better chance. Maybe the jock has ridden both horses in morning workouts and knows which one is training well or has information indicating which mount has a better shot.
9) Conditional Trainer stats: We’re not talking stats for overall trainer wins but more detailed stats such as % in money or wins w/ first time starters; 2nd time starters; first time sprinters, turf to dirt, dirt to turf, sprinting to routing, off the claim, etc. etc. There’s nuggets of gold buried in these stats; get to know them and use them to your advantage.
10) Steady improvement: Say you notice that a particular horse gets better each race. The horse may not be winning races, but there’s consistent improvement. This is a especially good angle to play on younger horses as they continue to mature, add muscle, and grow into their frame. If you figure another step forward puts them in contention you may get a nice price.
11) Calder shippers! I don’t play Calder much, however, shippers from Calder always seem to give a good account of themselves and outrun their odds. One theory is that Calder’s dirt track is deep and tiring on horses so when Calder horses ship to other tracks they have a conditioning advantage over their rivals. Even if speed figures indicate they’re over-matched, Calder shippers have a tendency to surprise.
With only 3 minutes to post and money burning a hole in your pocket, these angles can be the difference between a smart play and a hopeless stab.
In fact, last weekend I lost track of time and realized the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita was about to start. After scanning the pps, I zeroed in on one of these betting angles and turned a few bucks into a triple digit payoff. It was almost too easy. Guess which angle I played?
08 April 2010, 11:35 pm
[...] few months ago I listed a few popular betting angles and might try one or two on for size in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes this Saturday. [...]