Queen Elizabeth II does the Hot Cha Cha
History has a funny way of repeating itself; only not in ways that are easily predictable.Saturday’s G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Invitational stakes (that’s a mouthful) at Keeneland race track was a case in point. Heavily favored Gozzip Girl went off at 3-5 despite failing to hit the board at 2-5 in her last race, the G1 Garden City at Belmont Park. The conditions (9 furlongs over “soft” turf) and quality of the competition in both races were essentially the same. However, the wagering public gave Gozzip Girl a pass due to her troubled trip in the Garden City.
The previous race at Belmont race was devoid of speed and Shared Account lead all the way until yielding late to Miss World. Miss World ran huge to win handily at double-digit odds.
I was skeptical of Gozzip Girl at 2-5 at Belmont on soft turf after a 3 month layoff and equally skeptical of her at Keeneland at 3-5 after failing as the favorite under similar conditions. I failed to factor in Miss World in the Garden City and missed an opportunity to cash in on a huge underlay.
In the QE II, I figured Miss World at 4-1 (a far cry from 13-1) was still an attractive bet to win against the same level of competition she beat last time out. My only concern was Miss World’s lack of published workouts but I gave Christophe Clement the benefit of the doubt since he obviously knows what he’s doing.
Well, history did repeat itself on Saturday. Gozzip Girl turned out to be a huge underlay and finished a well beaten third. Shared Account led most of the way and yielded in the stretch to an eventual winner at attractive odds. Only one problem; the winner was Hot Cha Cha, not Miss World who came in 4th.
Unfortunately, I took a stand on Miss World in the top of exotics with Gozzip Girl, Shared Account, Hot Cha Cha, and Lady Shakespeare in various combinations underneath. I even took a minor stab (a swing for the fences if you will) using Shared Account on top of Miss World and Gozzip Girl just in case she held the lead this time.
It was not to be. Hot Cha Cha got a great trip under a brilliant ride by jockey James Graham. She was perfectly positioned along the rail and accelerated well when asked. Her victory wasn’t totally unexpected as I didn’t believe Gozzip Girl and Miss World were clearly head and shoulders over the field. However, one way to go broke at the track is to play every horse that can win instead of the horse you think will win.
Congratulations to Hot Cha Cha and jockey James Graham on their first G1 win. I hope they have many more in the future.
