Boom Goes Bust – WirePlayers Derby Dozen Volume III

Much like a third world economy, some Kentucky Derby contenders undergo profound Boom and Bust cycles every prep season. For “Exhibit A” take the case of Super Ninety Nine. He failed to garner a single vote in Volume I, but after a scintillating, possibly slop aided, performance in the Southwest Stakes, he rocketed to fifth place in Derby Dozen Volume II. Perhaps a case of irrational exuberance, but after an off the board finish in the Rebel, his bubble burst and wound up on the “others receiving votes” list with 6 votes.

Exhibit B might be Orb. Weeks after defeating an odds-on Violence in the Fountain of Youth, he ascends to 5th in our ranking. From an investment standpoint, Orb was worth a “buy” before the Fountain of Youth, but very well may be a “sell” before the Kentucky Derby, if not the Florida Derby.

In contrast, there are a few contenders lurking near the bottom of our list, sometimes on, sometimes off. These mid-tier contenders such as Fear The Kitten, Balance The Books, Mac The Man, Hear The Ghost, Tiz The Truth (before a quarter crack stalled his training) have enjoyed consistent, but certainly not overwhelming support. It’s worth noting that a few of them face off in Saturday’s Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.

Which leads me to speculate that a prop bet on any horse named “Something The Something” winning the 2013 Kentucky Derby might not be such a bad idea. Any takers?

The WirePlayers blog is fueled by blueberry pancakes, single malt Scotch, and dreams of cold trifectas. But it’s these fine individuals who provide the brain bytes behind the Derby Dozen (Poll #3 ballots):
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Andrew Mangini
Crystal Conway

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