Handicapping Laurel’s G1 De Francis Dash
Today’s G1 De Francis Dash at Laurel is a 6 furlong sprint on the dirt. Starting from post position #1, Vineyard Haven is the deserving favorite after an impressive performance in the G1 Kings Bishop at Saratoga. He was DQ’d in that race for veering into Captain Candyman Can in the deep stretch.I loved Vineyard Haven in the Kings Bishop and expect another big race today (w/out the DQ I hope). A couple of problems though: 1) post time track conditions expected to be wet due to forecasted rail. 2) Vineyard Haven starts on the rail with lots of early speed horses directly outside. 3) I have no strong opinions on Vineyard Haven’s challengers.
An intriguing horse is #9 Ah Day. He’s a confirmed closer in a race with tons of early speed and the outside post position assures he won’t get boxed in on the rail. If Vineyard Haven gets caught in a speed duel, Ah Day may run ‘em all down. He’s also won 6 races in 7 starts on wet tracks.
#6 Peace Chant is another that should be flying late. I’m a little concerned about the switch to trainer William Phipps from Doug O’Neil, and Richard Mandella before that. Also, Peach Chant finished 10th of 12 horses in the G1 Forego at Saratoga last race out. However, judging from the race notes he had traffic problems so maybe he gets a better trip today. Peace Chant’s never run on a wet track – he may love it, he may hate it. No doubt there’s lots of unknowns but may be a live long-shot at double-digit odds.
So, as usual, I’ll shoot for the moon. I’ll play the 1 with 6 and 9 in exactas and trifectas. I may also box the 6 and 9 together for a exacta bomb in case all the early speed gets cooked. If the track stays dry and the odds are right, I’ll put a few bucks on Peace Chant’s nose to boot.
24 October 2009, 9:08 pm
Shhh about Peace Chant. If not for the synthetic mandate, he’d probably already have multiple G.1 wins. War Chant out of Safely Kept…are you kidding me? He’s supposed to be the best horse in this race.
I am leery of Vineyard Haven’s stretch antics esp. off the layoff. Is something bothering him? 13 days between his last two works…usually every 6-8 days. Not exactly the stuff odds-on horses should look like.
On a wet track, Ah Day could move up in a big way as he’s earned over $60k/start on wet tracks (7-6-1-0 for $342k of his $892k career earnings).
Good luck.
25 October 2009, 2:19 am
Amateurcapper, I know what you’re saying about Vineyard Haven. I’m still a little salty about the DQ in the Kings Bishop. Not that he didn’t deserve it, but I singled him on top of what would have been a nice little trifecta. At 4/5 he didn’t disappoint his backers today. He scared the hell out of them, but he didn’t disappoint.
I had Ah Day and Peace Chant underneath VH but they both went way wide on the turn and just never got rolling. Guessing Peace Chant didn’t like the footing. Would like to see his next race off the layoff on a dry dirt track.