Preakness favorite BODEMEISTER (courtesy Jamie McDiarmid)

Neither event is better or worse than the other, just different. At the Derby you dress to impress because you never know who you might see; at the Preakness you dress for comfort because you never know where you might pass out (and if it’s near the barn area you don’t want to get horse poop on your new suit).

(courtesy Jamie McDiarmid)

As for the race itself, I have a hard time getting past I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, BODEMEISTER, WENT THE DAY WELL, and CREATIVE CAUSE, 4 of the top 5 finishers in the Kentucky Derby. #9 I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (5/2) certainly wasn’t a fluke Derby winner and could have a nice stalking trip once again. #5 WENT THE DAY WELL (6-1) finished strong in the Derby and may be a serious threat to win with a clean trip. However, #7 BODEMEISTER (8/5) looms as the most likely winner due to his raw talent, high cruising speed, and the lack of early pace challengers. In fact, we could see a repeat of Shackelford’s front-running Preakness victory from last year.

(courtesy Jamie McDiarmid)

Of the 11 entrants, there’s 5 ‘new shooters’ that did not race in the Derby. While I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them crash the superfecta or trifecta, I don’t see any serious win contenders. I plan to take a strong stand with BODEMEISTER on top of trifectas and superfectas, while using I’LL HAVE ANOTHER and WENT THE DAY WELL more sparingly. Then go deep underneath in the 3rd and 4th positions hoping to catch some bombs at the bottom of tri and super.

Go Bodie Go!

[Special thanks to Jamie McDiarmid from Audley Farm for sending us the great pictures of BODEMEISTER at Pimlico prepping for the big race.]

Well #2 LATE FOR CLASS (10-1) is something that I’ve been many times in life, but sadly I won’t be playing her in this race. Given how kindly the turf course has played toward speed you have to at least include #5 FUSAICHI PRETTY (9/2). Her daddy was a Kentucky Derby winner and he has sired some nice turf horses like Powhatan County. I think #5 FUSAICHI PRETTY wires this field and will play #12 WALK SOFTLY (5/2) underneath in exactas.

Race 2 – Maiden Special – 5 ½ Furlongs

A full field of maiden sprinters will give it a go in the second contest of the day with likely favorite #2 ON THE THRONE (5/2) shipping up from Gulfstream. He could very well win but I like #1 ESTRELLA CORREDOR (6-1). His prior turf race is the best race he has ever run. I’m not sure he has sprinter speed but jockey Kendrick Carmouche knows Atlantic City better than anyone and at a bit of a price has a good chance.

Race 3 – Allowance – 5 Furlongs

This race might be the hardest race I’ve ever seen at Atlantic City. A field of twelve and half the field looks like they’ll try to break from the blocks and go straight to the front. I landed on #8 SMOOTH SAILING (9/2). He maybe only 2 for 21 lifetime but most of those races were on the dirt and his turf races are far superior. He has speed but should have a perfect stalking trip. His connections (Montanez/Russell) have already teamed up for a win at ACRC this meet and hit at a 25% clip with a smooth $7.85 ROI.

Race 4 – Maiden Special – 5 ½ Furlongs

The majority of this field will be making their career debuts and really anyone has a chance. I’m going to give #5 CAME BACK (4-1) the checkmark over the rest but it’s lukewarm at best. Trainer Alan Goldberg wins at 25% first time on the turf with a $3.79 ROI and CAME BACK will also add blinkers. His first two tries over the dirt have been less than desirable so maybe turf and blinkers will do the trick.

Race 5 – Allowance – 1 Mile & 40 Yards

#1 SWEET ENERGY (9/2) is my best bet of the day. In six starts she has two wins with both coming over the lawn. She will be racing for the first time since last turf season, November at Laurel Park but she has won off the layoff previously and has been working steadily for her return. Anything near her morning line price is an absolute gift as she should roll over this field.

Race 6 – Allowance – 5 ½ Furlongs

Tuesday’s nightcap appears to be a three horse race between #2 ELIDEFEATSPEYTON (6-1), #3 MY ITALIAN EX (2-1) and #10 ALSTON GUNTER (9/2). MY ITALIAN EX has run some great races on the dirt but has only one try on the turf and it was an absolute disaster and at a short price he is a tough to take. ALSTON GUNTER has some speed and ran a pretty good fourth last time out in a stakes race at Pimlico. Finally ELIDEFEATSPEYTON has a good record running on the turf two wins and three second with one of those wins coming last year at Aye Cee. Horse for course is a great angle at ACRC and I’ll box him with ALSTON GUNTER in hopes of ending the day with a trip to the bonanza window.

Good Luck!

Today marks the start of the limited all turf meeting at Atlantic City Race Course, or as some call it “Aye Cee.” The meet is just six days long each year, but features full fields and solid racing over what used to be the greatest turf course in America. Below are some angles to consider when playing Atlantic City.

1. Speed – Last year the turf course played like a conveyor belt, the first horse to the lead won a majority of the time and during such a short meet (6 race days over 7 days) it’s a trend that is likely to be in play for the duration of the meet.
2. “Horse for Course” – One of the oldest tricks in handicapping, but still very effective at AC.
3. Jockeys – Last Year Kendrick Carmouche led the jokey colony with 8 wins from 24 starts (33%), Stewart Elliott (21%) and Frankie Pennington (23%) were second and third respectively
4. Trainers – Kevin Boniface, KA Demasi, Micheal Pino, Guadalupe Preciado and Ramon Preciado all won two races last year.
5. Enjoy – Atlantic City Race Course is a place with a long legacy and while it’s sad there are only six days of live racing per year, it’s still great to see a full grandstand at a track that refuses to die.

Good Luck!

Saturday’s Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse is one of the last major prep races prior to the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Despite its Grade I status, few winners of the Blue Grass have gone on to actually win the Kentucky Derby (the most recent was Strike The Gold in 1991!). Since Keeneland installed its synthetic surface (Polytrack) after the 2006 spring meet the Blue Grass has produced a series of long shot winners with strong turf pedigrees yet little chance of winning the Derby. Prior to 2007 wasn’t much better as Keeneland’s dirt track tended to favor one-dimensional speed horses.

With two-year old Juvenile Champion Hansen entered along with 12 mostly capable challengers this year’s Blue Grass figures to have a much greater impact on the Derby outcome.

Keeneland Race 11 – G.1 Blue Grass Stakes ($750K) – 1 and 1/8 Miles  – 6:18 Post

PP

1       HEAVY BREATHING  (12-1)

2      GUNG HO  (30-1)

3       PROSPECTIVE  (10-1)

4       HANSEN (6/5)

5       RUSSIAN GREEK  (50-1)

6       DULLAHAN  (6-1)

7       POLITICALLYCORRECT (30-1)

8      MIDNIGHT CROONER (15-1)

9       HOLY CANDY (30-1)

10     HOWE GREAT (6-1)

11      EVER SO LUCKY (12-1)

12     HERO OF ORDER (12-1)

13     SCATMAN (12-1)

#4 Hansen’s the deserving 6/5 morning line favorite and could go off at less than even money. It’s hard to find fault with his performances to date and he’s a perfect 2 or 2 on polytrack. In truth, we simply don’t know how good Hansen really is or can be in the future. He’s never raced 9 furlongs before and the Blue Grass field features better horses than those he manhandled at Aqueduct in the Gotham Stakes. Hansen may also face early pace pressure from the likes of Scatman, Heavy Breathing, Midnight Crooner, or even Howe Great, that compromise his ability to hold off his foes at the wire.

The conundrum, for me at least, is that once you get beyond Hansen there’s 5 to 10 other horses that could conceivably win. Howe Great looked stellar winning the Palm Beach Stakes and his turf form should transfer well to Keeneland’s polytrack. Dullahan was 2nd to Howe Great in the Palm Beach, but he’s was coming off a long layoff. He should improve in his 2nd race back and he’s 1 for 1 on Keeneland’s main track.

Pedigree handicappers will note that horses sired by Kitten’s Joy have fared well at Keeneland so 30-1 shots #2 Gung Ho and #7 Politicallycorrect cannot be completely ignored. Along the same lines, Scat Daddy has proven a potent sire in his early stud career as evidenced by Daddy Long Legs’ recent victory in the UAE Derby (on a synthetic track) and Daddy Nose Best’s wins in the El Camino Real (on a synthetic track) and the Sunland Derby. #13 Scatman is another by Scat Daddy; he has a win at Keeneland and may be dangerous despite a poor post draw.

The entry that most intrigues me is #3 Prospective. He’s consistently competitive and enters the race in fine form after a game win the Tampa Bay Derby. Like Hansen, he’s a perfect 2 for 2 on synthetic tracks, though his poorest finish came in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when finishing last in a race won by Hansen. At 10-1 on the morning line, his odds could approach 15-1 or higher by post time. Along with #6 Dullahan, he’ll be stalking the pace. Both have a puncher’s chance to upset Hansen, but Prospective should offer the most value if nothing else.

Without a doubt, the most likely winner is Hansen. However, at odds-on you can’t bet him to win and expect much money in return and it appears foolish to take a strong stand against him. Thankfully there is a bet known as the dime superfecta, perhaps the best wager in horse racing. My strategy will be to key Hansen on top; use Prospective, Dullahan, Howe Great, and Scatman in the 2nd position; use those same horses with Heavy Breathing, Gung Ho, Politicallycorrect, Midnight Crooner, Holy Candy, and Ever So Lucky in 3rd position; and the same 10 horses in 4th position. A 10 cent base bet will cost me $28.80, but a similar strategy paid off at $175 in Hansen’s odds on win in the Gotham as compared to a $54 payout on a $30 win bet. Oh yeah, I’ll make a small wager on Prospective to win and with Hansen in an exacta just in case he lands that right hook.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

The Arkansas Derby once again manages to draw a talented full field of eleven. In the gate Saturday will be Southwest and Rebel Stakes winner #5 SECRET CIRCLE (5/2), San Felipe Stakes winner #11 BODEMEISTER (9/5), Delta Jackpot winner #9 SABERCAT (15-1), Rebel Stakes runner up #7 OPTIMIZER (6-1) and the runner up of the Sunland Derby, #6 ISN’T HE CLEVER (6-1).

SECRET CIRCLE’s only blemish in six starts was a second place effort back in January in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. His wins in the Rebel and Southwest were a testament to how much of a fighter this horse is. Both were hard fought wins to the wire while visibly tiring. Whether or not he wants to go nine furlongs remains to be seen, but you have to like what he has accomplished on the racetrack so far.

The morning line favorite is BODEMEISTER, but I expect he and SECRET CIRCLE to vie for post time favoritism. He’s a lightly raced horse with only three starts, and at a short price, there are just too many questions for me. It looks like he’s going to be on the lead or pressing it which could leave him vulnerable. I find it a little interesting that Baffert ships him in here rather than staying at Santa Anita. Come summertime I think he will be a major player, but he lacks the seasoning that other contenders have in the race.

If you’re looking for alternates at a bit of a price, turn your attention to SABERCAT, OPTIMIZER, and ISN’T HE CLEVER. While SABERCAT had absolutely no excuse for his poor effort in the Rebel, it was his first start of the year and his connections (Asmussen/Nakatani) win at a 28% clip. OPTIMIZER and ISN’T HE CLEVER were both very game in defeat last time and will look to legitimatize those efforts to become major contenders.

Personally I think SECRET CIRCLE will get the dream trip. There is plenty of pace with BODEMEISTER and ISN’T HE CLEVER. SECRET CIRCLE can just draft in fourth or fifth place and pick them up in the stretch.

Good Luck!

You could say that the lack of 1 or 2 clear standouts is a sign of mediocrity. I respectfully disagree. I believe it reflects a depth of talent and quality we don’t often see and which may produce a truly special horse – a gem if you will. It should also produce a terrific betting race – and by good betting race, I mean the opportunity to win a lot of money for a relatively small wager (yes, the Dime Super is your friend).

To paraphrase Sam Spade, Mrs. Munday didn’t raise any children dippy enough to make guesses about possible Triple Crown winners (considering we haven’t had one in 33 years). However, it’s likely this year’s Derby will feature a breakout performance by a remarkable horse; and at remarkably good odds (and large exotic payouts)!

But which horse? That is the question isn’t it.

Maybe “the Dozen” will help . . .

(PS – don’t sleep on the “also receiving votes” bin as there a few in there that could make some noise this Saturday)

Special thanks to our fearless Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Crystal Conway

Race 8 — Cryptoclearance Stakes — 1 1/16 miles on dirt — post time of 5:08 CT

A listed stakes for $60K for older males. DENHAM may have trolling around in $5000 starter handicaps last year but he’s emerged as a player on the statebred stakes scene. I’ll forgive his last start at Turfway, as he’s one who loves dirt most and his only bad race came last fall in the Buck’s Boy when he was put on the shelf too long after a turf stakes. Like the long works for stamina and the trainer is quietly having a solid meet.

BIG LOOIE goes second off the layoff today for trainer C. Janks. Winner of the Buck’s Boy Stakes, a $125K stakes for statebreds two back over this same Hawthorne dirt, he cashed checks in many of his dirt races. His only win was in that stakes, however, but he is seven of nine in the money lifetime at Hawthorne.

GLEAM OF HOPE was last seen with a fourth in a listed stakes at Sam Houston and with minor awards in stakes at Fair Grounds that feed into the New Orleans Handicap. He’s got a second and two fourths in his dirt starts and you could make the case he’s not facing no one better than he was facing down south. With respect to figures, he’ll be a threat if he replicates his New Orleans races.

#4 DENHAM (6/1)

#7 BIG LOOIE (5/1)

#8 GLEAM OF HOPE (7/2)

Longshot: #6 TAPTOWNE (10/1) is one of two in here from Michael Reavis (the other, FREE FIGHTER, is better suited going much longer). It appears he doesn’t win too often. However his best starts have been dirt and he won the N2X allowance that serves as a side-door prep to this event. Didn’t disgrace himself going against fringe-level statebred stakes sprinters two back. Given the popularity of the rail-drawn horse, he could be easily ignored.

Race 9 – Grade 3 TVG Illinois Derby – 1 1/8 miles on dirt – post time of 5:45 p.m. CT

I’m not big on the favorite, CURRENCY SWAP, in this race for three year olds and I have a different pick. Check out the fine folks at Thorofan for the full preview.

Be sure to check out our twitter box on the far right side of the screen, as The Author will be live on scene from Hawthorne for tomorrow’s Illinois Derby. You might even see some additional picks there.

Good luck everyone.

Keeneland Race 9 – Friday, April 6th – Grade III Transylvania Stakes ($100K) – 8.5 furlongs (Turf) – 5:13 post time

Starting off I would suspect that #6 SILVER MAX (7/2) and #2 WAYWARD SAILOR (12-1) will set the pace. SILVER MAX while having not run any real bad races, finished second in his first five tries with three of those efforts coming on the turf and all of them while being on the lead and unable to hold late. He’s won twice, but both were at short prices and races that he was supposed to win. WAYWARD SAILOR appears to be overmatched in this spot.

Not too far behind those two will more than likely be #1 STATE OF PLAY (3-1) and #7 ICON IKE (7/2).  STATE OF PLAY owned by Team Valor won the John Battaglia Stakes last time out at Turfway Park. He set relatively soft fractions and just held on to get the victory. I feel like he will be over bet as people see the same connections (Trainer Graham Motion and Jockey John Velazquez) that won last year’s Kentucky Derby yet none of his wins really overwhelm me. ICON IKE will get a class test today as he attempts to win his fourth straight race. His win last time was impressive being wide the entire trip, but will have to travel an extra furlong here and I’m not sure that’s his game.

Morning line favorite is #5 MONASTIC (5/2) who comes in having been the favorite in all five of his career starts. He finished third last time at odds on and while he can win there are more negatives than positives in my opinion. His speed numbers are average and with his inconsistent from, I’ll let him beat me.

Only #4 SATURDAY LAUNCH (6-1) and #3 TRAVEL ADVISORY (10-1) are left completing the field of seven for the Transylvania. SATURDAY LAUNCH two starts back got nosed by News Pending who came back to run second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and ran in the Florida Derby. SATURDAY LAUNCH has a good stalker type running style and I think will hit the board.

My pick in this race is TRAVEL ADVISORY. He won his last start at Fairgrounds having broke from post ten was well wide the entire time, took the lead at the top of the stretch and was able to hang on. A repeat of that performance will put him in contention at a nice price. I like that he will be sitting back a few lengths and breaking from post three he should not get caught out as wide this time.

Selections:

#3 TRAVEL ADVISORY

#4 SATURDAY LAUNCH

#1 STATE OF PLAY

Weather Outlook: mid 80s, sunny

Gulfstream Park Race 11– Grade I Florida Derby ($1 Million) – 1 1/8^th Miles – 5:40 (EDT) Post Time

Last year’s Derby favorite going into his final prep race was Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial. This year it’s #6 UNION RAGS (6/5) in the Florida Derby. This colt has been very impressive in his brief racing career thus far and may very well win this race, albeit at much less than his 6/5 morning line odds.

I’m here to offer alternatives and #8 EL PADRINO (2-1) is UNION RAGS’ biggest threat. There’s some backstory involving these horses having to do with jockey Javier Castellano. Castellano was UNION RAGS’ regular rider, but jumped off the mount earlier in the year for another Derby contender (Algorithms) who’s now off the Derby trail due to a minor injury. Both UNION RAGS and EL PADRINO looked tremendous in their last races and should take most of the wagering action.

It’s tough to have much confidence with the other contenders in this race. #2 NEWS PENDING (8-1) ran second to UNION RAGS in the Fountain of Youth, but he set a relatively soft pace and had nothing left when the real running started. #3 TAKE CHARGE INDY (5-1) is another possible contender. He showed ability as a two-year old, but Calvin Borel in the saddle and odds around 5-1 do not excite me.

I expect UNION RAGS and EL PADRINO will sit just off the pace and be head and head coming down the stretch. I’ll give EL PADRINO a slight advantage as Castellano will be looking to make up for his past mistake and EL PADRINO should offer slightly more wagering value to boot.

Good Luck!

Gulfstream Park Race 10 – Grade II Pan American Stakes ($150K) – 1 ½ Miles (Turf) – 5:35 (EDT) Post Time

Usually when thinking of turf racing at Gulfstream it’s about overflow fields and several also eligibles. Sadly the Pan American Stakes is the exception to the norm. The grade II race has only drawn a field of six. It can be further reduced to a match race between #1 NEWSDAD (9/5) and #2 SIMMARD (2-1) as they appear to outclass the rest of the field.

#3 HARRODS CREEK has not raced since December at Woodbine and trainer Bill Mott generally does not have his horses geared up first time off a layoff. A look back to last year off a similar layoff was his worst race of the year. This race appears to be a prep for another spot down the road.

#4 HAILSTONE (10-1) always tries, but never seems to get into the winners circle and the distance of 12 furlongs is another question. #6 CENTER DIVIDER (5-1) was beaten soundly by NEWSDAD and SIMMARD last time and a reversal of fortune is unlikely given the likely race dynamics. Looks like a toss up between NEWSDAD and SIMMARD; and personally, I like NEWSDAD to win.

Turfway Park Race 9 – Grade III Bourbonette Oaks ($100K) 1 Mile (Polytrack) – 5:12 (EDT) Post Time

The fillies will take to the track and try to bank some purse money toward the Kentucky Oaks. This race appears wide open with all the runners being lightly raced with numerous questions to answer. Todd Pletcher ships in #5 DANCING SOLO (4-1) and jockey Javier Castallano makes the trip to Kentucky with her. I like her in this spot because arguably her best race was last fall on Keeneland’s Polytrack. She hung in the stretch finishing third, but was beaten less than a length and had to travel farther than today’s race. Tough to get creative but I will take DANCING SOLO over the other logical contenders in #3 MORE THAN LOVE (9/5) and #4 IN LINGERIE (2-1). MORE THAN LOVE will be racing on a surface other than turf for the first time and IN LINGERIE has had some problems at the gate in both of her career starts.

Turfway Park Race 10 – Grade III Spiral Stakes ($500K) 1 1/8^th Miles (Polytrack) – 5:45 (EDT) Post Time

Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom started his run to the roses by winning this race last year. Back at it again this year is Graham Motion (trainer of Animal Kingdom) saddling #4 WENT THE DAY WELL (4-1). Even though he just broke his maiden three weeks ago, the horse has some ability including two 2^nd place finishes in Great Britain last fall. He’s run well on dirt and turf so we’ll see if he can handle the poly too. An interesting horse at a price is #1 RUSSIAN GREEK (10-1). He gets a huge rider change to Corey Nakatani and adds blinkers. RUSSIAN GREEK needs a solid pace up front to have a chance though, but #3 HEAVY BREATHING (3-1) and #12 HANDSOME MIKE (4-1) could provide it for him.

Sunday – Sunland Park Race 12 – Grade III Sunland Derby ($800K) – 1 1/8^th Miles – 7:45 (EDT) Post

Many may remember improbable, long shot Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird using this race as springboard in 2009. This year’s edition features a field of eight and some big time trainers shipping in Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Bob Baffert has two; Todd Pletcher and Steve Assmussen both have one. I like one that isn’t trained by them in #4 ISN’T HE CLEVER (4-1). He has perfect record over the track including a career high Beyer which is best of the group. Sunland generally favors speed and he has enough to be in the race early but does not need the lead to win. #1 CASTAWAY (2-1) won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn and should set the pace, but I’m not crazy that Baffert is running him here rather than in last week’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. #2 ENDER KNIEVEL (6-1) and #3 STIRRED UP (8-1) just broke their maidens and will need to improve off those races to have a chance. Finally, #6 DADDY NOSE BEST (3-1) has run on poly and turf, but is unproven over a fast dirt surface. At a short price I’ll leave him out.

Good Luck and follow us all weekend long on twitter @Wireplayers!

Last year the Spiral Stakes shook loose from the bonds of irrelevance when ANIMAL KINGDOM parlayed his win into a Kentucky Derby triumph. While only a Grade 3, and run over polytrack, the winner of the $500,000 purse is virtually guaranteed a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. With a full field of 12 all desperate for graded stakes earnings, this edition should end up as a great betting race.

 The Spiral Stakes also kicks off NBC Sports’ coverage of the Road to the Derby, and will air in glorious HD (as all racing should) from 5-6 pm Eastern.

Note: Morning Line odds were not posted at the time of writing.

1.  RUSSIAN GREEK – The winner of the ungraded California Derby was nowhere to be found last out when finishing fifth in the El Camino Real Derby. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer adds blinkers and Corey Nakatani takes over the mount from Aaron Gryder. He’ll take money at the windows but he’s light on speed figures and hasn’t beaten much in his three wins in Northern California. His pedigree suggests that Polytrack and longer distances are right up his alley, but just not sure he’s got the goods to win on Saturday.

2. RED JACK – Only a maiden win to his credit, which came over the Churchill Downs turf course last November. He has run once on Polytrack and didn’t show much.  This Exchange Rate colt looks hopelessly overmatched coming out of a third-place finish in claiming company.

3. HEAVY BREATHING – Most likely will end up as the favorite off two impressive wins at Gulfstream. He’s got the pedigree to love the distance and surface, and you can’t dispute how good Pletcher and Castellano are together. Nearly 40 percent of the time, they win every time. Normally a race like this would be a class test, and Gulfstream form doesn’t always carry to other tracks. But there are no world-beaters in this bunch, and my only concern is that he’s had things relatively easy sitting close to slow paces in his two races.

4. WENT THE DAY WELL – He may have the same connections as last year’s winner, but this colt lives on the other side of the class tracks. He’s run respectably in two maiden races at Gulfstream since shipping over from England, and he has the highest late pace figures in the field, according to Brisnet. Team Valor’s other derby hope, STATE OF PLAY, is scheduled to run in the Transylvania at Keeneland on April 6, so this feels like a “why the heck not” move to try and pick up some graded money for one of their lower-tier runners.

5. HOLIDAY PROMISE – Never discount the “other Pletcher” angle. Except in this case. This horse has chased far worse at Laurel and Aqueduct, with only a maiden win to his credit. His speed figures are moving in the right direction, and he has one of most underrated riders in the country with Junior Alvarado.  Unfortunately, that’s about all he’s got going for him and it’s going to take more for me to believe he has a chance on Saturday..

6. ALL SQUARED AWAY – Trainer Peter Miller called an audible and shipped this Bellamy Road gelding off a seventh-place finish in the El Camino Real Derby and a plodding second in an allowance race. He has respectable synthetic track form, but hard to get too excited about a horse that took five tries to win his maiden (and only) race, and only did so when left alone on an easy lead in a field of five.

7. ILL CONCIEVED – If you throw out his sprint races, his form looks pretty good. I really like the way he battled STATE OF PLAY in the John Battaglia Memorial, the local prep for this race. Distance is the question for me. His breeding certainly suggests sprinting, but trainer John Servis doesn’t spot his horses in stakes if he doesn’t think they have a legitimate chance. I really like the fact that this horse can run near the pace or close from the back. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets somewhat overlooked at the windows and could end up offering decent value for the win.

8. COACH ROYAL – Yet to win a race, he does have some upside as far as running respectably in turf routes. He adds blinkers, gets a new rider in Fernando Jara and makes his first start on Polytrack. It’s a lot to ask of this colt by Lemon Drop Kid. The fact is he’s run as many bad races as good. Having just run a pretty good race, I’m willing to bank on him throwing a clunker on Saturday.  On the off chance I’m wrong, I’ll hedge a few bets with him underneath.

9.TIZANEXPENSE – Came into the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds last month with two decent wins under his belt and was still overlooked at 23-1. The bettors were smart that day, as he was well beaten after a wide trip. His speed figures aren’t that much behind others in the field and trainer Mike Maker and jockey Victor Lebron win a lot of races at Turfway. A lot. As one of only a few horses in here to actually put two wins together, I wouldn’t be quick to discount his chances. He’ll also likely be overlooked in the shadow of his stablemate, MR PRANKSTER, so if the “other Maker” angle is a thing, this might be the time to play it.

10 MR PRANKSTER – Ran just awful in the Battaglia as the odds-on favorite. He came into that race with two decent wins over the Turfway surface, so his performance was certainly a head-scratcher. Those who play the bounce theory will be all over him on Saturday, and it’s hard to see him offering much value.  My theory is he wants nothing to do with nine furlongs, and his speed figures are average at best. He has more questions than answers with regard to his class, so I’ll be playing against him.

11. STEALCASE – Kind of an interesting longshot. Only one win to his credit and really didn’t run a step in the Gotham after breaking poorly. From a speed figure standpoint, he’s quicker than others and I’m intrigued by the bullet work on March 17, likely once he added blinkers. Jockey Rajiv Marragh is an excellent synthetic rider and this Lawyer Ron colt has a fair bit more upside than others. I have a feeling Marragh will keep him close to the pace, and if he’s allowed to get first run he could be a threat to win at a nice price.

12. HANDSOME MIKE – Another California shipper, but far and away the best of the contingent. He’s got by far the quickest early speed in the field, and should have ample time to work out a good trip from the outside post. Rider Joel Rosario is one of the best in the country, and this horse has faced significantly tougher company than the rest of the field.

SELECTIONS:

7. ILL CONCIEVED

11. STEELCASE

12. HANDSOME MIKE

3. HEAVY BREATHING

LONGSHOT: TIZANEXPENSE

Here’s the stretch run of the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes and what sold me on ILL CONCIEVED. I really like how the horse seemed to wake up at the eighth pole and just ended up on the wrong end of a head bob for second.

Though it has a small field of 6, half the entrants in Sunday’s Palm Beach Stakes are out of the exceptional turf sire Kitten’s Joy. The race may also hold the winner of Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes (on April 14th) and a ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Team Valor and Graham Motion’s spectacular win in the 2011 Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom has them on everybody’s radar this year. It’s well deserved as they have another crop of promising 3 year old colts with State of Play; winner of last week’s John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, Lucky Chappy; heading to Dubai for the UAE Derby, and #1 HOWE GREAT; the 8/5 morning line favorite in Sunday’s Palm Beach Stakes.

Team Valor horses are typically very well-bred with solid turf pedigrees. Animal Kingdom could obviously handle dirt, but will HOWE GREAT?

Well, we’re getting ahead of ourselves as I’m not so sure Team Valor is even pointing him to the Derby. However, he would be a legitimate contender in the Blue Grass as it’s no secret turf horses do well on Keeneland’s polytrack. In fact, last year’s Blue Grass featured 3 horses coming out of the Palm Beach Stakes (the winner, Brilliant Speed, came out of another turf race, the Hallandale Stakes).

Another logical contender in the Palm Beach is #3 DULLAHAN (2-1), owned by Donegal Racing and trained by Dale Romans – the same connections of the talented turf runner Paddy O’ Prado. By the way, two years ago Paddy O’ Prado parlayed his 1st place finish in the 2010 Palm Beach Stakes into a 2nd in the Blue Grass before finishing 3rd in the Derby. He then went back on the grass and won 4 more graded stakes, to include the G. 1 Secretariat.

DULLAHAN hasn’t raced since his respectable 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race that has since produced 5 graded stakes winners: Hansen (G. 3 Gotham), Union Rags (G. 2 Fountain of Youth), Creative Cause (G. 2 San Felipe), Alpha (G. 3 Withers), Drill (G.2 San Vincente). A fairly amazing stat considering it’s only been just over 4 months since the Breeders’ Cup.

DULLAHAN will be a handful as will #5 COALPORT (3-1). By Kitten’s Joy, COALPORT has one win in four starts. He finished ahead of HOWE GREAT’s stable mate Lucky Chappy in the G. 3 Bourbon at age 2 before a disappointing, and troubled, 11th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. With HOWE GREAT and DULLAHAN figuring to get most of the attention at the windows, COALPORT, with Julien Leparoux riding, could get overlooked and go off higher than his 3-1 morning line odds.

Of course, turf races are highly dependent on pace and positioning and it looks like HOWE GREAT will get a comfortable and clean trip near the front along with #6 CSABA (6-1). They’ll both try to hold off DULLAHAN and COALPORT in the deep stretch.

So which will prevail: the BC Juvenile angle, the Team Valor/Graham Motion angle, or the Kitten’s Joy angle?

Well, Kitten’s Joy does have the numbers.