At this point, no one knows which horse will win the Derby and it doesn’t really matter. What’s important is forming your own opinion about which horses might win the Derby and identifying those that are maturing and peaking at the right time. By following the Derby Preps closely you’ll have insights you can turn into cold hard cash come May 5th.

Follow the Derby preps using the handy dandy schedule on our KY Derby page and check in on our Derby Dozen list (we’ll vote every three weeks) to see if our opinions line up with yours. Putting the time in now may payoff later.

Special thanks to our expert Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz

Sunshine Millions this year will be different from prior years. Prior years featured Florida-breds and California-breds racing against each other in stakes that alternated between in venue between Gulfstream and Santa Anita Park near Los Angeles. This year, Gulfstream has a Florida-bred centered program and Santa Anita has a California-bred centered program.

In a new twist this year, races from Santa Anita and Gulfstream will be mixed together into a one-time wager called the “Luck Pick Six”. This wager carries a one dollar base, a mandatory payout (no carryover), and a minimum pool of $250,000. The wager is a cross-promotional tool between the two festivals and also celebrates the beginning of HBO’s racing-centered series “Luck”.

We’ll look only at the Gulfstream portion. For a look at the Santa Anita portion, please visit Chris Hernandez’s “Giving My Ten Cents” blog and read his Sunshine Millions thoughts here.

Race 5 — Florida Sunshine Millions Distaff S. — 1 1/8 miles — Post tlime 2:35 EDT

Going for an upset right off the bat. DELIGHTFUL MARY has only one bad race on her resume, when sent wide last spring in the G1 Ashland at Keeneland. Last time out in a single-turn mile over this course she sat off respectable speed and won. Jockey/trainer team dominated in Canada, but have been quite capable in South Florida. AWESOME FEATHER will be the hype horse. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner starts for the first time since Thanksgiving. She’s certainly capable on paper but I am using her defensively. But I think my top pick offers equivalent risk and a better payout. SWEET REPENT fits at this minor stakes level, having won a number of them at Calder, South Florida’s other track. Gets a rider upgrade today, but in her last starts has finished behind fellow entrants MY PAL CHRISY and our top pick.

#3 DELIGHTFUL MARY (5/1)

#4 AWESOME FEAT (4/5)

#6 SWEET REPENT (6/1)

Longshot: Wait a minute….where are we?!. What are these strange trees? And where are the Illinois-breds? And where’s the Metra or the 54B bus? Well, give me a race to get my bearings. I got nothing.

Race 6 — Florida Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint S. — 3/4 miles (6 furlongs) — Post time 3:05 EDT

Today’s race, like all the other Florida Sunshine Millions races, does not carry a grade, and graded races tend to be of higher quality. That said, POMEROY’S PISTOL won the G3 Sugar Swirl at Gulfstream last time at today’s six furlong distance. Has never been worse than third in her career at Gulfstream and enters off two sharp workouts upstate. IT’S ME MOM had a stellar 2011, banking over $200K, with the only blemish coming from a bad break four back in Erie. Here, she’s the speed of the speed and Gulfstream has been known in the past to play kindly to front running speed. BC Filly & Mare Sprint winner MUSICAL ROMANCE makes her first start from the mothballs. She had a solid season at Calder, and appeared on the radar when second in the prestigious Princess Rooney. Duplicating her best last year would top these.

#5 POMEROY’S PISTOL (3/1)

#1 IT’S ME MOM (4/1)

#6 MUSICAL ROMANCE (5/2)

Longshot: #7 BEAT THE BLUES (6/1) has won fifty percent of her races in her career, but if you look only at starts on fast dirt, she has eleven starts, seven wins, two seconds, and a third. I think she hated the faux dirt surface three back against fellow entrant MUSICAL ROMANCE, and she’ll make the third start off the shelf for solid New Orleans-based human connections.

Race 7 — Florida Sunshine Millions Sprint S. — 3/4 miles (6 furlongs). — 1 1/8 miles — Post time 3:35 EDT

The one-two finishers of the Mr. Prospector Stakes, run at six furlongs overll this same course, return. I think they’ll finish that way again. APRIORITY closed to nail ZERO RATE POLICY on the line last time, and the winner has kept company with some good foes. Toss the effort in the slop at Belmont three back, and over a quirky moisture-retaining Churchill surface two back and his dry track efforts are good enough to take this. ZERO RATE POLICY has never finished worse than fourth in his career, and has eight top two finishes (and five wins) in ten lifetime tries. Never worse than second over the local dirt. ROYAL CURRIER has been competitive in age-minor stakes in the Mid-Atlantic and ships south, getting a rider upgrade to Dominguez. Never out of the trifecta in ten tries at today’s distance.

#7 APRIORITY (2/1)

#6 ZERO RATE POLICY (3/1)

#1 ROYAL CURRIER (6/1)b

Longshot: Third to ZERO RATE POLICY two back, #5 IT’S NEVER TOO LATE (12/1) could have been yours four starts back at Delaware for the low low price of $50K. Prior to throwing a clunker at Tampa, he had a stellar 2011 (six wins, $165K earnings). He’s won over the Gulfstream dirt before (five times, to be precise), and if ZERO RATE POLICY gets softened on the front end he’ll have a puncher’s chance.

Race 8 — (Leg #1 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf S. — 1 1/8 miles (Turf)– Post time 4:10 EDT

The portable rail will be, at publish time, set to 36 feet. G3 winner ROMACACA returns from a somewhat long layoff (a 29% win proposition) for Calabrese/Canini. Last time before the trip to cold storage, she pressed a solid pace and was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths at Saratoga against a field far and away better than these. She can win stalking, and she was classy enough and quick enough to grab a minor check in the prestigious Beverly D in 2010. Another G3 winner, UNBRIDLED HUMOR, returns since the Matriarch on Thanksgiving weekend. Trainer Motion (of Animal Kingdom fame) isn’t a frequent shipper, and she was in the same zip code as Never Retreat, last year’s best horse on the Arlington grounds and a solid female turfer. Defending champion TRIP FOR A.J. sees the starter here. With eleven money finishes in thirteen turf tries, many of them at similar state-bred conditions, she’ll be in the mix. Her up-close style will also be an asset given the rail position.

#5 ROMACACA (3/1)

#4 UNBRIDLED HUMOR (5/2)

#7 TRIP FOR A.J. (5/1)

Longshot: One for the home team with the honest mare #9 ROMIN ROBIN (8/1). She may like the grass in Chicago more, but she’s got six money finishes in twelve tries over the Gulfstream grass. I know she hasn’t won since the spring at Arlington, but she missed by inches against fellow entrant ASKBUT I WONTTELL, was overmatched in the Beverly D. Goes second start off the layoff.

Race 9 — (Leg #3 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Turf S. — 1 1/8 miles (Turf) — Post time 4:50 EDT

The portable rail will be, at publish time, set to 96 feet. TEAKS NORTH won two grade one (G1) races last year, the prestigious United Nations and the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, last year. The latter is at the same distance and course as today’s event. Goes second start off the layoff, which the trainer has done eight times in the past year, winning twice with two additional money finishers and a an ROI of $9.22. BAD DEBT won against fellow statebreds two back at Calder. Been in the top two all four career starts on the Gulfstream sod, and brought to you by a 20% trainer. ALLIE’S EVENT spent most of last year cashing checks in upper level allowances and stakes like the River City. The rail position, and presence of LITTLE MIKE giving pace, means this one-run closer will have something to attack. Enters off a sharp workout upstate at Tampa Bay Downs.

#10 TEAKS NORTH (3/1)

#3 BAD DEBT (6/1)

#7 ALLIE’S EVENT (12/1)

Longshot: #6 BECKHAM BEND (15/1) will be up close to the pace, and if the closers don’t come around this one can attack the leaders. Toss out the dismal effort going three turns in the Pan American and he’s hit the top two more than half the time. Was in the same zip code as a graded stakes-bound horse last time upstate at Tampa.

Race 10 — (Leg #5 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Classic S. — 1 1/8 miles — Post time 5:25 EDT

RON THE GREEK only beat four others, but he did it with aplomb last time in New York and has been working steadily since relocating to Florida. Sharp connections abound as he rides a two-race win streak, winning two races back at today’s distance. TURBO COMPRESSOR demolished Florida-breds across town last time and he faces state-breds again. Team has seven top two finishes in their last thirteen starts and he’s won over this course. DUKE OF MISCHIEF hasn’t been to the winners’ circle since beating Game On Dude (Horse of the Year finalist) and Tizway (double G1 winner) in West Virginia. He’s been facing a lot of big names, and none of them will be in the gate for this race, suggesting a drop in class. Trainer is 20% in listed stakes (like today’s).

#7 RON THE GREEK (5/1)

#5 TURBO COMPRESSOR (2/1)

#1 DUKE OF MISCHIEF (6/1)

Longshot: Give me #4 DECAF AGAIN at 30-1. This is a mess of a race where everyone has questions or flaws. Can ‘DUKE close off an honest pace? Can ‘TURBO get the lead? Can MUCHO MACHO MAN live up to hype? Can ADIOS CHARLIE go two turns? Is ‘RON for real? Toss out the last two turf races (we’re not on the turf today), and if our 1-2 picks decide to go at each other and commit suicide, DECAF AGAIN could come from the parking lot to pick up the pieces.

(As a note, legs 2, 4, and 6 correspond to the 4th, 5th, and 6th races at Santa Anita. For more info, see “Giving my Ten Cents“.)

Good luck this weekend!

#1 REDDING COLLIERY (2-1)

Certainly has plenty of back class to get into the winners circle. His last race was a sixth place finish but it was his first race in over a year so makes sense that he would need one. Like other foes in this race, he has a win over the track which is a positive and recent workouts are solid. I would not be surprised if he hits the board.

#2 HEART BUTTE (3-1)

Last year’s winner comes into this race only having raced one time since. That was a thrilling win at Parx on New Year’s Eve. He is a perfect two for two on the track and four for four at this distance. His win at Parx was very strong and I think he can improve further off that last effort and is clearly the one to beat in this spot.

#3 I WANT REVENGE (6/5)

I Want Revenge would have been the favorite in the 2009 Kentucky Derby but had to be scratched in the morning of the race. He has not won since the 2009 Wood Memorial here at Aqueduct. Since his return to the races, he has not been able to stay healthy, showing big gaps between races. His last race was at Belmont Park in the spring of 2011. He can win this race and any fan of the game would be rooting for him to return to glory. As a bettor however, I will be playing against him for those reasons and the expected short price.

#4 THUNDER BALL (12-1)

He’s won three straight races at Laurel Park, but against much lesser company. He ships in for connections who hit at a high percentage; jockey Harry Vega 14% and trainer Jose Corrales 21% with the two teaming up to win at a 60% clip with a nice RIO of $3.32. Having never raced over the inner track is a negative especially going up against those proven. A long shot at best.

#5 JIMANATOR (8-1)

A graded stakes champion comes in having lost last time to #2 HEART BUTTE by just over three lengths. JIMANATOR has taken his show on the road and run some very respectable races. He was blocked in the stretch during that last race which compromised his chances. David Cohen picks up the mount and is very good riding over the inner track. Upset potential.

Picks:

#2 HEART BUTTE

#5 JIMANATOR

#1 REDDING COLLIERY

Be sure to follow all my picks for Aqueduct on twitter @DylanTWM

Good Luck!

The other major stake at Gulfsteam this weekend is the 24th Running of the Hal’s Hope Stakes. Hal’s Hope was a horse that dominated the Gulstream strip highlighted by a win the in 2000 Florida Derby. This year’s race is interesting, as several in the field have had good success over this track. Here’s a read on this year’s edition of the Hal’s Hope.

#1 JACKSON BEND (2-1) –Will be making his 2012 debut trying to win at the distance of a mile for the first time. While he might be better at Six or Seven Furlongs, the race being around one turn will help his chances. While he didn’t run bad in a third place effort in the Breeders’ Cup sprint, taking a short price on a horse off a layoff who took awhile to get in form last season isn’t for me, I will let him beat me.

#2 SKY VENTURE (20-1) – Will have to run his best race and better his best speed figure by ten to have a chance to win here, longshot at best.

#3 SANGAREE (6-1) – This horse is remarkably consistent, always showing up to run. Problem I have backing him is he does not win that often, I can’t see his last win in PPs only having one win in the last two years. I will be using him underneath in exacta and trifectas.

#4 SUCCESSFUL MISSION (3-1) – Appears to be a tough customer on paper but he is another one coming off an extended layoff and has done his best running on the turf. I’m not really sure why they are running him in this spot on the main track.

#5 DECISIVE MOMENT (12-1) – Comes into this race having won a stake on the Delta Jackpot undercard at Delta Downs. He is interesting at a bit of a price but he seems to really only do his best running when on the lead and at Delta Downs. He will have company out there on the lead with him to keep it an honest pace hurting his chances.

#6 OUR DARK KNIGHT (12-1) – Has had success over this track previously which is a positive. He just seems like a cut below of the rest of this field. His speed figures are not as fast in comparison. He might contest for minor awards but tough to endorse to win.

#7 SOARING EMPIRE (4-1) – Returns to defend his title from a year ago and appears to have a good chance to do so. He has won off a layoff before and the workouts shown in program are tremendous. Not only did he win this race last year but also finished 2nd in two other graded stakes here at Gulfstream and running style is ideal. All signs point to him being ready and if he looks relaxed while in paddock and on track he should run huge.

#8 COOL BLUE RED HOT (12-1) – If Cool Blue Red Hot can stay healthy then I think he could have a really big year because he definitely can run a little bit. The problem has been keeping him in form, lots of gaps between running lines. He might need a race and is also cross entered into the Ft. Lauderdale S. as a Main Track Only entry. I will use him underneath and give him a chance at a price with his stalker running style.

#9 WILL’S WILDCAT (10-1) – Appears to be a need the lead type of horse. He does look like the speed of the speed which helps but DECISIVE MOMENT won’t make his job easy. If he runs the same race he did two back he’s got a chance but I think he is up against it.

Selections:

#7 SOARING EMPIRE

#3 SANGAREE

#8 COOL BLUE RED HOT

Good Luck!

1. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN (15-1) – Word from his connections is that they’ve been looking for a spot to run him on turf, and his pedigree certainly suggests he’ll handle it.  The fact that he’s aggressively spotted indicates a high level of confidence that he’ll run well.  He adds blinkers and Rajiv Marragh stays on board. If he’s able to work out a good trip from the rail, he could offer some good value in the exotics.

2. SANTIVA (20-1) – Looking like a winner at the top of the stretch in his first race off a six-month layoff and first time over the grass, a move forward makes him a logical contender. That said, he’s a tough to like a horse with only one win in nine starts to his credit, and is often overbet. His pedigree is is heavy on turf influences, but he’s too slow in the speed figure department for me to play aggressively.

3. GUYS REWARD (12-1) – He’s always given a credible showing on turf, but another who just doesn’t win very often.  He’ll be running late, but picks up his sixth rider in as many races and simply isn’t a stakes-caliber horse.

4. YUMMY WITH BUTTER (10-1) – He could end up the value play of the race of his last two races where he ran poorly closing out his 2011 campaign over a yielding course at Belmont and sprinting over Tampa’s main track.  Looking back at his races over firm turf at Monmouth over the summer, he didn’t run a bad race.  He reunites with Paco Lopez, who guided him to two G3 wins over the summer, and he’s got a versatile running style to be a major factor in this spot.

5. MUTUAL TRUST (3-1) – A group one winner in France last year, he makes is first start in the U.S. off a five-month layoff for new trainer Bill Mott. He’s worked steadily at Palm Meadows and on paper looks to be the most logical winner.  The problem becomes, you just don’t know how he’s going to take to Gulfstream’s course and U.S. racing, and likely won’t offer much value. I’ll hedge a few bets with him on top, but will look elsewhere for the winner.

6. MAMBO MEISTER (12-1) – Always game, but a completely different horse when not running over Calder’s main track. He’s also never one at the distance and has a bad habit of struggling to pass horses.

7. TEAKS NORTH (8-1) – Ran some excellent turf races last year, but also ran as many clunkers.  This is likely the level where he fits best, but the fact that trainer Justin Sallusto couldn’t draw a better rider than Juan Leva is a bit of a concern.  He did win the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap in his only race over the course last year, but I think this race is purely a prep to try and repeat, so I’m not expecting very much.

8. FLAT OUT (6-1) – A win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic would have made him a logical contender for Horse of the Year, but now he’s simply trying to regain his credibility.  It’s tough to like a one-paced horse that’s never raced on grass and battled health issues his entire career.  His lone work over Gulfstream’s turf course was respectable, but he won’t offer much value and will need to show me he can handle grass before I’m a believer.

9. HOLLINGER (8-1) – Roger Attfield and John Velazquez are so dangerous on any turf course, simply because you just never know when a horse that looks overmatched on paper is going to step up and run a huge race.  That said, I’m willing to pass on this one, because it seems like he’d prefer shorter distances and hasn’t had a layoff in six months.

10. SILVER MEDALLION (4-1) – Winner of the Tropical Turf Handicap at Calder in December, and in the exacta in five of seven turf races, he looks to be the most logical winner. Anywhere near his morning line odds make him excellent value, but I think he’ll drift down and end up the post time favorite. It took him a while to get good, but he’s in the best form of his career since Pletcher moved him back to turf in October. Castellano is one of the best turf riders in the country and he’s got the best late speed in the field.  The race should set up ideally for him, but the outside post is a bit of a concern.

11. HOOFIT (15-1) -  A polytrack specialist with less than stellar form on turf in Europe, the distance looks beyond what he wants to run.  However, he’s turned in a pair of solid works over the Palm Meadows turf course, and Graham Motion typically spots his horses very well.

12 – KINDERGARDEN KID (12-1) – Interesting to see Julien Leparoux end up here, as he doesn’t ride very often for trainer Barclay Tagg.  The horse’s best races have come in allowance/optional claiming company and he’s never started from a post this wide.

Once you look past MUTUAL TRUST and SILVER MEDALLION, the race looks wide open.  It shapes up as a great betting race, since many of these offer tremendous value.  Gulfstream tends to favor horses on or near the lead, and horses in the outside posts are at a distinct disadvantage. I’m willing to give YUMMY WITH BUTTER the nod, hoping the return to firm turf will get him back on track.  He could end up as lone speed, and should work out an ideal trip from the four post.

Hype and underachieving aside, 20-1 on SANTIVA is crazy. He was 9/2 last out and only lost by a neck. if new rider Jesus Castanon times his move a little better, he could be in the mix at the end.  TEAK’S NORTH and HOLLINGER are both wild cards. If either run their best race they will certainly in the mix, but the lack of consistency is a bit worrisome and not sure the latter wants this distance.

I’ll use both of the favorites, but lean heavier on SILVER MEDALLION, and use MUTUAL TRUST in some saver exotics.  I’ll also use SANTIVA and UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN sparingly underneath.

Picks:

10. SILVER MEDALLION

4. YUMMY WITH BUTTER

7. TEAK’S NORTH

Leave a comment to let me know who you’re playing or let me know on Twitter (@NJDerek). Best of luck with all your wagers.

After betting the races for over two decades I can’t say I know anything about handicapping for certain, but I suspect a lot. Upon reflecting on my exploits as a horseplayer, I offer the following observations, which may or may not be true, that other bettors may find consistent with their own experiences.

- The best races to bet are “obvious” – those races where you have a metaphysical certitude on the outcome of a 9 or higher (on a scale of 1 to 10) . Admittedly, these races are rare, but they do happen (and you’ll know when it does).

- A sure way to screw up an “obvious” race is to over think it and second guess your own skills and instincts.

- Conversely, if you have no earthly clue which horse (or subset of horses) will win a race or how the race will unfold, no amount of staring at the PPs will help.

- The more you play the races, the more cynical you will become – not just about horseracing, but about everything.

- Being a contrarian is one of the greatest talents a horseplayer can possess.

- The more you follow the races, the more all other sports will pale in comparison.

- When you tell someone which horse you think will win, it almost always loses. However, if you buy a stranger a win ticket out of pocket the horse usually wins.

- Someone once said, “If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans.” I’ll add, if you want to make a parimutuel teller laugh, tell him (or her) which horse will win the next race.

- Form your own opinions and never let anyone talk you off a horse you like or let them talk you on a horse you don’t. However, there’s little harm in giving a 2nd look to a horse someone else likes (but you don’t).

- As Aldous Huxley once said, “the more you see the more you know;” watching live races, studying race replays, and making trip notes are foundations for success and allow you to see and know more than most of your fellow bettors.

- Whenever you lose a race, you obviously bet too much; whenever you win, you obviously didn’t bet enough.

- If people that charged money for handicapping tips consistently made money playing the races, they wouldn’t waste time shilling their picks.

- Horseplayers want more people to begin betting the races because they assume amateurs in the pool will improve their ROI (but it probably won’t).

- It’s hard to win money solely by picking winners and betting WPS; playing the exotic pools (exactas, trifectas, Pick Xs) offer tremendous risk/reward opportunities and a chance for long-term profit.

- Putting together collaborative Pick 6 tickets with other horseplayers is only fun when you win (which is of course rare); otherwise, your filled with regret over concessions and comprises.

- Assumptions, biases, false inclinations, and accepting published reports as “gospel” will lead you astray while maintaing total objectivity will lead to handicapping success. However, achieving total objectivity is easier said than done and may ultimately lead to Nihilism.

So, could the best horseplayers be Nihilists?  Oh God, I hope not!

 Gov. Edgar served on the board of Youbet.com and has been an active campaigner for programs (such as alternative gaming) that better the health of racing in Illinois. He also has bred and raced horses in Illinois (although he has, unfortunately, sought richer purses in bordering states in recent years).

This week’s feature, the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity, is the male complement of last week’s race. Like the Whitworth, it’s a sneak peak at tomorrow’s state-bred stars. Like the Whitworth, it’s restricted to Illinois-Bred two-year-olds and carries a $100K purse. Let’s meet the field.

Hawthorne — Race 8 — 8.5F — Post time 6:17 ET

#1, STRONGEST LINK. Broke his maiden at first asking across town at Arlington. In his second start, he was behind Feels Like Flying, the Showtime Deb runner-up in a first level turf allowance. Last time he ran evenly in the back of the pack in the Royal Glint, a $60K route on turf. While rider C. Roman has been riding well this meet, and he comes from the steady C. Block barn, this one was regressing speed figures and has never won past five and one-half furlongs. Looking elsewhere.

#2, PRINCE CHEVAL. It took him five tries to graduate, but he finally got the job done last time out in a statebred maiden special weight. He has tangled with some decent two year olds in his earlier starts (Sweet Luca, Here Comes Frazier). Today however will be first time going a route of ground and in stakes company. Trainer has one win in nine Hawthorne starts, two wins in twenty-seven starts this year. Both wins have come with Lantz riding (who rides here), but that makes for team stats south of ten percent, and a rider south of ten percent. There’s a pulse, but it’s faint.

#3, BLING KING. The first of two trained by Jim DiVito. During the Arlington meet, DiVito sent out two year old winners in almost half of the races. He’s hitting at 20% for the meet, 26% for the year, and 39% with juveniles. Last time he tried allowance company and a route, and was only a length behind fellow entrant YANKEE DEALER after leading most of the way. In all his races, he’s been on the front end but only once been able to take them start to finish. I question his ability to pass horses, but he has hit the trifecta in all five of his races and has two wins: one at first asking and one two back in an N2L claimer. Minor awards.

#4, REAL POWER. Recall from last week’s post that maidens can jump up and snag these late-season stakes. Here’s a maiden, but he’s finished second three times in his five career starts. Each one of his starts has been around two turns, be it a mile on the grass at either Arlignton or Hawthorne or a mile and seventy yards on the Hawthorne dirt. Trained by C. Block (>20% in most categories) and ridden by the meet’s leader, F. Geroux. He’s a one-run closer, so he’ll need upfront pace to set up his rally. The upfront speed is likely. One of the ones.

#5, TWELVE HUNDRED. He was the buzz horse before the G3 Arlington Washington Futurity, based on DiVito’s success with two year old runners, his purchase price (hint: the name), and his eight length win going a two-turn mile in Iowa. When going one turn in that polytrack G3, he was up close to a moderate pace before going backwards in the stretch. Last time out he was the focus of a late win plunge of $50K in the win pool that sunk his odds to 1-9. He was up close to a fast pace and then went backwards in the stretch again, sinking the win money plungers. Perhaps going back to two turns dictating the pace will help, but he isn’t going to have a free lunch on the front end. While DiVito (this is his second of two runners) is strong with juveniles, his percentages plummet the higher up the class ladder. Worth taking a stand against.

#6, YANKEE DEALER. The third and final entrant trained by Chris Block, and this one is brought to you by the Tarra Trust (who own Giant Oak). He’ll have Block’s first-call rider, Eddie Perez, in the saddle. His first two starts on polytrack featured awful speed figures and no wins. When stretched out to two turns and put the dirt, the speed figures and placings improved. He graduated two back in open company in the mud and won a statebred first-level allowance. A stalker, I like the fact he won with two different pace scenarios. Win pick.

#7, SHELLYS WILD. The first of two runners trained by Michael Reavis. Here’s another that has yet to get the picture taken. Trainer and team stats are solid. His two starts featured him close to paces and then getting passed turning for home. The pace scenario won’t be kind to him, however. It’s possible that he’s used as a rabbit to set up his entry mate and stable mate, but why would Reavis’s first-call rider get back aboard the one with the least advantageous pace scenario? Mixed feelings and low unders at best.

#8, HERE COMES MARIO. The second of two runners trained by Reavis. Another runner with zero wins. Although Reavis is a solid juvenile trainer, he’s using C. Castro (7% wins at Hawthorne) as his pilot for the first time. He’s routed in all five of his career starts. This one will come off the pace, but the closest he’s been to the diploma is third position, or fourth beaten a length. I won’t argue with those that use him as a low unders candidate, but I don’t think today is the day he gets the one-up, defeats the evil boss, and moves on to the next level.

#9, LAKOTA WOLF. Another horse with a donut in the win column. After showing a minor bit of closing kick in three prior starts, Geroux placed him closer to the pace last out in a route. He got a minor award while moving up to open company. Rider downgrade to Q. Hamilton, speed figures have been nothing to get excited over, and he showed his best when close to a pace. Doubtful.

Selections:

#6 YANKEE DEALER (7/2)

#4 REAL POWER (9/2)

#3 BLING KING (5/1)

Longshot:  He’s never tried a route, but he did get a win on the dirt last time. Given a pace that could be hot on the front with two DIVito runners winging it on the engine, closer #2 PRINCE CHEVAL (12/1) has a good chance if the pace is strong as projected. While he’s never been a route, his pedigree (Leroidesanimaux X Navajo Princess, out of Alphabet Soup) suggests a route won’t be out of his league. Odds should hold, given the the presence of the three >20% trainers.

Be sure to check out the author’s twitter feed (@heylaserbeam), for on-the-scene happenings from the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity at Hawthorne. You can also check us out on Facebook and on twitter (@wireplayers) for spot plays from Hollywood to Gulfstream and everywhere in between. Good luck!

1. Race Distances – The racing program is comprised mostly of races at 6 Furlongs, 1 Mile and 1 Mile & 70 yards. Not to mention the same horses run in those same races over and over so it’s easier to get an idea of how the race is going to develop and who has a shot to win.
2. “Horse for Course” – is one that works from time to time but is particularly stronger over this surface due to the unique track composition. No matter how poor a horse’s form may be entering the race, the inner track can move them up drastically. Some horses really like the surface while others flat out hate it.
3. Inside Posts – Where the Start / Finish line is, horses on the inside have an advantage on two turn races because the run up to the clubhouse turn is so soon.
4. Jockeys – Due to the nature of the surface it can be tricky to navigate; regular riders such as Cornelio Velasquez, David Cohen and Ramon Dominguez are proven and win a majority of the races this time of year.
5. Grand Slam Wager – While it may not pay off as big as some other multi race wagers, it is a great wager that really caters to the player and is not available at other venues.

Good Luck!

Both days of the weekend feature ho-hum cards.  Perhaps some plays on the Saturday Hawthorne program could lead to contest success.

Hawthorne — Race 1 — Illinois-Bred Maiden Special Weight (MSW) — 6F — Post Time 1:40 CT

The pick to win is SLIGO BREEZE.  I know this is a trainer that’s zero-for-thirteen with first time starters with a seven percent rider taking the call.  The upsides are there, however.  The dam has one winner from three starts, and the rest of the field looks like as appetizing as stale pumpkin pie.  Of the experienced runners, LA TIA looks best.  She checks in with two thirds in two career starts.  It’s very possible this one found a soft field and today is graduation day.  It’s also possible this one has learned how to burn tickets.  There looks to be enough on-paper pace to set up THUNDERING HOOFS.  Trainer is 18% on the meet, 19% second off layoffs, half of a good team.  The shorter field and inside post should help this filly here.

#3 SLIGO BREEZE (8/1)
#5 LA TIA (9/5)
#4 THUNDERING HOOFS (6/1)

Longshot: I think I have a better chance with some of that stale pumpkin pie.

Hawthorne — Race 8 —  $5,000 N2Y Claimer — 6.5F — Post TIme 5:17 PM CT

Nearly every Hawthorne card this kind of a race: a $5K claimer.  Which also happens to be the lowest levels of claimers on the grounds.  And we have an overflow field.  LITTLEBROWNROAD hails from the 21% Berndt barn and the team has done well at Hawthorne.  The downside on him is that he’s developed a case of seconditis this year, with six of them out of the eight starts he’s made this year.  However he has a win and a third to go with six seconds, and has banked $172K lifetime the hard way, picking up checks in low budget claimers and while avoiding Arlington.  Not bad at all.  RUN WITH EAGLES won last time in an N1Y over the local oval.  He’s made three starts in his career at Hawthorne, with a win, a third, and a bad break forgiving him in the last one.  RADAR MAN won in the summer at Indiana Downs for more than three times today’s price.  Last time he plunged to the N2Y level, a clear cut second behind a four-length winner.  Cuts back to a sprint, and has four thirds in nine starts this year.  Maybe the distance cutback puts him back on the beam.

#7 LITTLEBROWNROAD (3/1)
#8 RUN WITH EAGLES (6/1)
#12 RADAR MAN (5/1)

Longshot: Let’s try the new face among the gang, with #13 CAP’N FELIX (8/1).  He’s on the Also Eligible list so he’ll need aid to get in the field, but he won an N1Y claimer two back at Mountaineer while hitting the board about half the time at Ohio and West Virginia tracks.  Think the Mountaineer form holds up and maybe the new surroundings will be helpful.

Hawthorne — Race 9 —  $5,000 N3L Claimer — 6.5F — Post TIme 5:48 PM CT

Another spin on the basement-level claiming wheel.  SPREAD THE CHIPS, since been taken off the pace and getting Tanner Riggs to ride, has reeled off two victories in a row after trolling around in basement level $10K Maiden Claimers.  Riggs stays aboard for a team that spots a sparkling ROI.  CART’S GLITTER, if not for a horrible break four back at Hoosier, would likely have checks in all his starts.  Do note he is a front runner who has the passing skills of a parked car.  However he has two seconds in both his Hawthorne starts.  MAGIC MAN double drops to the bottom level after two starts for double the price.  The trainer is 20% on the double drop and the choice of Inez Karlsson, fresh off maternity leave, puts this once closer to the pace, tactics that led were led to wins during Hawthorne’s spring meet meet and across town at Arlington.

#11 SPREAD THE CHIPS (8/1)
#4 CART’S GLITTER (4/1)
#10 MAGIC MAN (6/1)

Longshot: He cleared the N2L condition via disqualification, but #6 JAUN DE LA PLAYA is a new face in a group where some runners seem to have permanent residency.  In three career dirt starts he has two wins (one via DQ).  The pace should be honest, if not a touch slow, and I like the switch to Cisco Torres, who should be able to keep him in the hint.   Not often you see a son of Street Cry in a bottom level N3L at Hawthorne.

From the Hollywood Turf Festival to the Aqueduct HolidayFest to Churchill’s Stars of Tomorrow II to the opening of Fair Grounds, there’s plenty of quality racing beyond the local sphere.  Among the out-of-town stake races, I’ll be rooting for the home team with NEVER RETREAT in her career finale in the G1 Matriarch at Hollywood on Friday.  

Be sure to check out Twitter and Facebook for updates all through the holiday weekend.  Good Luck!

Race 4: Louisiana Legacy S. – LA Bred, 1 Mile – 2:44 Post Time (central)

This race appears wide open with morning line favorite #2 JOE’S NO SAINT (3-1) looking rather vulnerable. He can win, but not any of his prior efforts grab my attention. My top choice is #5 PORTO POTTEA (15-1). This one comes off a win in his first time going two turns and first time at Delta Downs. He comes up for top connections in trainer Scott Gelmer and rider Shaun Bridgmohan and has a serious chance at a generous price. #10 VALIDFROMTHEGITGO (10-1) is one that might have bounced in the last race after two very encouraging efforts and appears to be working well in the morning, must use.

Race 5: Delta Mile S. – 1 Mile – Post Time 3:13 (central)

The Delta Mile is an interesting race that appears to be between two horses; #4 HOORAYFORHOLLYWOOD (4-1) and #6 GLENWOOD CANYON (2-1). I’ll also make a case for last year’s Delta Jackpot runner-up, #2 DECISIVE MOMENT (7/2). His form may be questionable coming into the race, but horses that have run well on this track before always tend to show up.  Most likely #4 HOORAYFORHOLLYWOOD will look to take them wire to wire, and even though #6 GLENWOOD CANYON turns around quickly, he has run well on short rest before and might be in the perfect spot.

Race 6: Delta Princess S. – 1 Mile – 3:43 Post Time (central)

Full field set in the Delta Princess and the first question you have to ask is can favorite #5 CANDREA (5/2) rebound from her disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Cup juvenile fillies. Personally, I’m going to play against her, as the quick turnaround doesn’t appease me. #2 NOW I KNOW (9/2) will put her perfect four for four record on the line trying to go a route of ground for the first time. She has gotten better in each of her races and gets the class test today. The My Trusty Cat Stakes winner #7 CITIZEN ADVOCATE (7/2) isn’t without a shot either as she won that race rather convincingly and is proven over the surface.

Race 7: Delta Jackpot S. – 1 & 1/16^th Miles – 4:15 Post Time (central)

The big dance is the last one of the sequence and features a full field trying to get a jumpstart on a bid for the Kentucky Derby next spring. Bob Baffert ships in #6 DRILL (2-1) who didn’t run a step in the Breeders’ Cup juvenile. This horse has been documented as being difficult to train and again with the short price and turnaround time between races I’m playing against emphatically. #5 MY ADONIS (4-1) quickly drew off when asked in his prep for this race and his stalker running style should be ideal as there appears to be some pace to his inside. He looks to be sitting in the perfect spot. Also on the ticket will be #3 TIZ MOE (15-1), he was a clear 2^nd best last time, but has a strong work since. Also using #8 SABERCAT (8-1) who beat #5 MY ADONIS two back and has connections that win a lot of races at Delta Downs (Steve Asmussen and Gerard Melancon).

Advance Weather: Partly Sunny, 70s

Good Luck!

Dylan’s Pick 4 Ticket – $0.50 = $45

Leg 1: 2,5,6,9,10

Leg 2: 2,4,6

Leg 3: 2,7

Leg 4: 3,5,8