Preakness favorite BODEMEISTER (courtesy Jamie McDiarmid)

Neither event is better or worse than the other, just different. At the Derby you dress to impress because you never know who you might see; at the Preakness you dress for comfort because you never know where you might pass out (and if it’s near the barn area you don’t want to get horse poop on your new suit).

(courtesy Jamie McDiarmid)

As for the race itself, I have a hard time getting past I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, BODEMEISTER, WENT THE DAY WELL, and CREATIVE CAUSE, 4 of the top 5 finishers in the Kentucky Derby. #9 I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (5/2) certainly wasn’t a fluke Derby winner and could have a nice stalking trip once again. #5 WENT THE DAY WELL (6-1) finished strong in the Derby and may be a serious threat to win with a clean trip. However, #7 BODEMEISTER (8/5) looms as the most likely winner due to his raw talent, high cruising speed, and the lack of early pace challengers. In fact, we could see a repeat of Shackelford’s front-running Preakness victory from last year.

(courtesy Jamie McDiarmid)

Of the 11 entrants, there’s 5 ‘new shooters’ that did not race in the Derby. While I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them crash the superfecta or trifecta, I don’t see any serious win contenders. I plan to take a strong stand with BODEMEISTER on top of trifectas and superfectas, while using I’LL HAVE ANOTHER and WENT THE DAY WELL more sparingly. Then go deep underneath in the 3rd and 4th positions hoping to catch some bombs at the bottom of tri and super.

Go Bodie Go!

[Special thanks to Jamie McDiarmid from Audley Farm for sending us the great pictures of BODEMEISTER at Pimlico prepping for the big race.]

Uncertainty makes for excitement, and I gotta feeling this will be one of the most exciting Kentucky Derby’s we’ve seen in years (aided by the potential for some some HUGE exotic payouts).

But which horse is going to win? As you can tell below, opinions vary (see everyone’s entire ballots here).

For me, I’m torn between Bodemeister and Gemologist. My heart belongs to Bode, but my gut says Gemologist. Gemologist is ultra consistent with two wins at Churchill and the look of a horse that just doesn’t like to lose. But Bodemiester could be a flat out freak; the question is whether he’s ready to freak right now. For the sake of my friends at Audley Farm and my pride in the Old Dominion, I hope so. One thing’s for certain, I’ll be rooting hard for Bodemeister to make history!

I can’t say enough about the people who volunteered their time and expertise to be part of our Derby Dozen panel; many thanks!
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Crystal Conway

Well #2 LATE FOR CLASS (10-1) is something that I’ve been many times in life, but sadly I won’t be playing her in this race. Given how kindly the turf course has played toward speed you have to at least include #5 FUSAICHI PRETTY (9/2). Her daddy was a Kentucky Derby winner and he has sired some nice turf horses like Powhatan County. I think #5 FUSAICHI PRETTY wires this field and will play #12 WALK SOFTLY (5/2) underneath in exactas.

Race 2 – Maiden Special – 5 ½ Furlongs

A full field of maiden sprinters will give it a go in the second contest of the day with likely favorite #2 ON THE THRONE (5/2) shipping up from Gulfstream. He could very well win but I like #1 ESTRELLA CORREDOR (6-1). His prior turf race is the best race he has ever run. I’m not sure he has sprinter speed but jockey Kendrick Carmouche knows Atlantic City better than anyone and at a bit of a price has a good chance.

Race 3 – Allowance – 5 Furlongs

This race might be the hardest race I’ve ever seen at Atlantic City. A field of twelve and half the field looks like they’ll try to break from the blocks and go straight to the front. I landed on #8 SMOOTH SAILING (9/2). He maybe only 2 for 21 lifetime but most of those races were on the dirt and his turf races are far superior. He has speed but should have a perfect stalking trip. His connections (Montanez/Russell) have already teamed up for a win at ACRC this meet and hit at a 25% clip with a smooth $7.85 ROI.

Race 4 – Maiden Special – 5 ½ Furlongs

The majority of this field will be making their career debuts and really anyone has a chance. I’m going to give #5 CAME BACK (4-1) the checkmark over the rest but it’s lukewarm at best. Trainer Alan Goldberg wins at 25% first time on the turf with a $3.79 ROI and CAME BACK will also add blinkers. His first two tries over the dirt have been less than desirable so maybe turf and blinkers will do the trick.

Race 5 – Allowance – 1 Mile & 40 Yards

#1 SWEET ENERGY (9/2) is my best bet of the day. In six starts she has two wins with both coming over the lawn. She will be racing for the first time since last turf season, November at Laurel Park but she has won off the layoff previously and has been working steadily for her return. Anything near her morning line price is an absolute gift as she should roll over this field.

Race 6 – Allowance – 5 ½ Furlongs

Tuesday’s nightcap appears to be a three horse race between #2 ELIDEFEATSPEYTON (6-1), #3 MY ITALIAN EX (2-1) and #10 ALSTON GUNTER (9/2). MY ITALIAN EX has run some great races on the dirt but has only one try on the turf and it was an absolute disaster and at a short price he is a tough to take. ALSTON GUNTER has some speed and ran a pretty good fourth last time out in a stakes race at Pimlico. Finally ELIDEFEATSPEYTON has a good record running on the turf two wins and three second with one of those wins coming last year at Aye Cee. Horse for course is a great angle at ACRC and I’ll box him with ALSTON GUNTER in hopes of ending the day with a trip to the bonanza window.

Good Luck!

Arkansas Derby winner BODEMEISTER is considered by some to be a California horse. After all he’s trained at Santa Anita by Mr California-cool himself, Bob Baffert. But BODEMEISTER is a Virginia bred; raised at Audley Farm, a picturesque equine complex tucked away in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains; and he has a big shot to wear the roses next Saturday evening.

In a testament to his talent, BODEMEISTER may go off as the post time favorite next Saturday despite the fact no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two year old. That’s a curious statistic, but I’m more intrigued by UNTOUCHED TALENT, the dam of BODEMEISTER that produced a Grade 1 winner and Kentucky Derby contender with her first foal to reach the track. I visited Berryville, Virginia’s Audley Farm to get a look for myself at this historic property and their previously unknown broodmare UNTOUCHED TALENT.

UNTOUCHED TALENT (standing)

First some history: located 60 miles outside Washington DC and a stone’s throw from the Shenandoah river, Audley Farm goes back over 250 years. It was the home of Nellie Custis, the granddaughter of Martha Washington who was taken in by George Washington when Nellie’s father died while she was young. When George Washington served as President in New York City and Philadelphia, Nellie was there to help the first family entertain guests. Later in life Nellie lived at Audley Farm in a house that remains the centerpiece of the property to this day.

Nellie Custis House at Audley Farm

Audley’s Equine Manager, Jamie Mcdiarmid, was kind enough to take me on a tour of the property. It’s a vast 2,500 acre farm with 1,000 acres dedicated to equine facilities. In keeping with the farm’s philosophy of making best use of the land, the remainder of the acreage is used for raising high-quality Angus cattle and selling hay and firewood. It makes for smart business too, operating a Thoroughbred breeding facility of this nature is capital intensive, risky, and takes deep pockets. When breaking even is considered a good year, success must be measured in many ways.

Despite the diversification, you can tell immediately from Jamie’s knowledge and enthusiasm that Thoroughbreds are their core business and their passion. Jamie’s been around horses his entire life; his father was a horse veterinarian and Jamie managed Thoroughbred farms in England before taking the job at Audley 13 years ago.

Audley Farm Equine Manager Jamie Mcdiarmid

German citizen Hubertus Liebrecht purchased Audley in 1978 and his family has maintained ownership of the vast property, and a commitment to breeding Thoroughbreds, after his death in 1991. They’ve honored the property’s history by fully renovating the Nellie Custis house and the stable where the 1919 Triple Crown winner SIR BARTON stood as stallion at Audley from 1922 to 1933. It’s clear from the start this is an operation that does things the right way for the right reasons.

Statue of SIR BARTON in front of his old stable at Audley Farm

While the Audley property was certainly breathtaking, the star of the tour was BODEMEISTER’s dam UNTOUCHED TALENT. She’s an attractive, well-bred Thoroughbred sired by STORM CAT out of the A.P. INDY mare PARADE QUEEN. UNTOUCHED TALENT had a short but stellar racing career in 2006 as a two-year old with two wins and two seconds in four races, all stakes. She was purchased for $1.4 million as a broodmare while in foal to UNBRIDLED SONG. Unfortunately, that foal was euthanized after sustaining an injury prior to getting to the track. Sired by EMPIRE MAKER, BODEMEISTER was the second foal by UNTOUCHED TALENT. It’s obviously a notable accomplishment for a broodmare to produce a Grade 1 winner with her first foal to race.

UNTOUCHED TALENT with weanling

When we reached her paddock, by her side laying in the grass was a young weanling sired by TIZNOW. She clearly loved being petted on the head and melted my heart as she followed me around the pasture like a puppy dog. Jamie remarked, “she’s taking a liking to you mate.” Given her classy pedigree, Jamie mentioned that the farm may elect to keep her as a future broodmare rather than selling her as a yearling next year.

TIZNOW weanling out of UNTOUCHED TALENT

Jamie next showed me a yearling out of UNTOUCHED TALENT, this one sired by SMART STRIKE. And a strikingly beautiful filly she was. Jamie mentioned she’s growing fast and will likely be much bigger come September when scheduled for Keeneland’s yearling sales. Definitely a horse to watch.

SMART STRIKE Yearling out of UNTOUCHED TALENT

I asked Jamie what BODEMEISTER was like during his time on the farm as a yearling: “Pretty chill, a really, really cool horse” he responded. It’s a character trait that may help BODEMEISTER deal with the massive crowds and hoopla at Churchill Downs next week. I wondered why BODEMEISTER went unraced at age 2 and Jamie mentioned he was quite small as a yearling and still had a lot of growing to do. He speculated that he might have been a tad immature and recalled Baffert mentioning in an interview that BODEMEISTER wasn’t quite ready for last year’s Del Mar meet.

In the middle of Audley Farm's 2,500 acres

Prior to BODEMEISTER, Audley was known for producing well-bred Thoroughbreds, but no superstars. Their biggest horse to date was MANDY’S GOLD, winner of the Grade 1 Ruffian, the 2002 Virginia Horse of the Year, and 5^th in the 2002 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (won by AZERI). Jamie remarked “things have been quiet around here for a while, but the past few weeks have been hectic” due to the attention garnered by BODEMEISTER.

A turf track once used for training

Momentum is a crazy thing, so perhaps Audley Farm is about to go on a major roll. Jamie was also pleased with ROMAN CLASSIC, a colt owned by the farm and trained by Will Phipps that won a Maiden Separate Weight in impressive fashion as a first time starter last Wednesday at Tampa Bay Downs.

Retired broodmares relaxing at Audley Farm

As it was with Ned Evans’ Spring Hill Farm near Warrenton, Va, and still is with Joe Allbritton’s Lazy Lane Farm in Upperville, Va, Audley Farm’s goal is to produce world-class race horses. In fact, there’s a friendly rivalry among the farms’ Equine Managers: earlier this year in a Maiden race at Santa Anita BODEMEISTER faced fellow Virginia bred STIRRED UP. Said Jamie, “All I cared about was BODEMEISTER not losing to that horse from Lazy Lane. And he crushed him!”

Virginia bred Kentucky Derby Winners

I always wondered if breeders of horses entered in the Kentucky Derby enjoyed any special perks or received bonus money if the horse won the race. Jamie assured me they received nothing. But a contingent from Audley Farm is planning to be at Churchill Downs Saturday, rooting for BODEMEISTER just the same.

The Mcdiarmids - ready to hit Churchill Downs

After touring Audley, Jamie suggested I check out a Mexican restaurant in downtown Berryville where you could bet the races (a future story perhaps). After parking I tried feeding a quarter into the meter but it wouldn’t work. Thinking the damn thing was broken I took a closer  inspection to find the meter only took pennies. You heard me, pennies!

Bring your pennies to Berryville, Va!

Then I recalled a conversation with Jamie back at the farm in which he observed that a place like Audley is more likely to be found in Lexington, Kentucky than Clarke County, Virginia. True enough, but more than that, Audley is from a different time, a time when horses were front and center in people’s daily lives, and you could actually buy something for a penny.

Today marks the start of the limited all turf meeting at Atlantic City Race Course, or as some call it “Aye Cee.” The meet is just six days long each year, but features full fields and solid racing over what used to be the greatest turf course in America. Below are some angles to consider when playing Atlantic City.

1. Speed – Last year the turf course played like a conveyor belt, the first horse to the lead won a majority of the time and during such a short meet (6 race days over 7 days) it’s a trend that is likely to be in play for the duration of the meet.
2. “Horse for Course” – One of the oldest tricks in handicapping, but still very effective at AC.
3. Jockeys – Last Year Kendrick Carmouche led the jokey colony with 8 wins from 24 starts (33%), Stewart Elliott (21%) and Frankie Pennington (23%) were second and third respectively
4. Trainers – Kevin Boniface, KA Demasi, Micheal Pino, Guadalupe Preciado and Ramon Preciado all won two races last year.
5. Enjoy – Atlantic City Race Course is a place with a long legacy and while it’s sad there are only six days of live racing per year, it’s still great to see a full grandstand at a track that refuses to die.

Good Luck!

The defection of Uncle Mo just prior to last year’s Derby meant a wide open field with no clear cut favorite. Animal Kingdom won impressively at over 20-1, but some argue the field he beat lacked depth, if not talent. This year’s field is seemingly wide open, but the talent level on the whole seems much higher. Nonetheless, a direct comparison can be made to WENT THE DAY WELL. He has the same ownership (Team Valor), trainer (Graham Motion), and jockey (Johnny Velasquez) as Animal Kingdom. What’s more, both horses earned their way into the Derby off winning Turfway Park’s Spiral Stakes. Could a Team Valor horse win off prepping on polytrack two years in a row?

In both 2010 and 2009 the sloppy track conditions seemed to benefit Super Saver and Mine That Bird respectively as they received savvy, ground saving trips under Calvin Borel (btw, lookout for EL PADRINO if the track is sloppy next week, he’s a mudder!). The 2008 Derby is not particularly useful either this year as Big Brown was clearly dominant with the only question being whether or not he could overcome post position 20.

That brings us to 2007 and Derby winner Street Sense. Both Street Sense and HANSEN won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. Both also used Keeneland’s Toyota Blue Grass as their last Derby prep race and each finished 2nd as the favorite. A key difference between them is running style – Street Sense was a closer while HANSEN always runs on or near the lead. Given the depth of the 2012 field and HANSEN’s running style and predicted pace scenario, he’s likely to go off higher than Street Sense did in 2007 as the 5-1 favorite.

Winning the Blue Grass has never been a sure path to the Derby winner’s circle. The last horse to win both was Strike The Gold in 1991. That’s not a good sign for 2012 Blue Grass winner DULLAHAN, but going back to 1991 is a blink of the eye compared to 1882.

The 2007 3rd place finisher Curlin resembles BODEMEISTER as both entered the Derby off impressive wins in the Arkansas Derby and neither raced until age 3. What’s notable is that the last horse to win the Derby without racing at age 2 was in 1882 when Apollo won the 8th overall running of Derby (back when the race was contested at 1 and a half miles). Curlin couldn’t overcome 125 years of history, but he did finish 3rd behind Hard Spun and went on to beat Street Sense two weeks later in one of the most exciting finishes in Preakness history.

An intriguing comparison can be found in the 2006 Kentucky Derby won by Barbaro. There were no clear cut favorites in the seemingly deep competitive field as only 3 of the 20 entrants were less than 8-1 at post time. The lukewarm favorite was 5-1 Sweetnorthernsaint (Sam Bowie to Barbaro’s Michael Jordan if you will) and the 2nd choice winner (Barbaro, of course) was over 6-1; a pure gift to his backers no doubt! If you had wheeled him in the exacta for $2 w/all it would have cost you $38 and paid nearly $600 (with 30-1 Bluegrass Cat finishing 2nd), whereas betting that same $38 to win would’ve returned less than half that amount (about $270.00).

As it turned out there was only one great horse in that race, but even though he was an undefeated 5 for 5 going in, few predicted such dominance prior to the Derby (or a potential for greatness that seemed all too obvious just moments later). This year there’s also an undefeated colt entered, Wood Memorial champ GEMOLOGIST. While both Barbaro and GEMOLOGIST were (or are) a perfect 5 for 5 entering the Derby, they were (or are) dismissed by some as untested without a visually impressive race. Barbaro had to gut out a win in the Florida Derby over Sharp Humor and GEMOLOGIST had to out game ALPHA in the stretch of the Wood.

Speaking of ALPHA’s 2nd place finish in the Wood (despite encountering some trouble), Funny Cide won the 2003 Derby at 14-1 after finishing second to Empire Maker in the Wood with a similarly troubled trip. What about that, huh?

Getting back to Barbaro, his lack of a gaudy Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby lead to Sweetnorthernsaint being the favorite off a dominant 9 and a half length victory the Illinois Derby. Likewise, BODEMEISTER might be post time favorite based on his 9 and a half length victory in the Arkansas Derby (you gotta love the BSF devotees).

Soooooo, is BODEMEISTER this year’s Curlin or Apollo? Is ALPHA Funny Cide? Is GEMOLOGIST Barbaro? Is HANSEN Street Sense? Is WENT THE DAY WELL Animal Kingdom? Is DULLAHAN Strike The Gold.

Dunno, but i did write about this year’s Kentucky Derby contenders without mentioning CREATIVE CAUSE or UNION RAGS, but rather Sam Bowie. That’s gotta mean something . . .

In a story broken on Tuesday by Daily Racing Form and Bloodhorse, jockey Eusebio “Eddie” Razo Jr., 46, was confirmed dead at his home in north suburban Long Grove. According to the Pioneer Local, which first reported the incident, the cause of death was related to an explosion at his home.

While he’ll be missed in his suburban community and at the racetracks he rode at–Arlington in the summer, Hawthorne in the spring and fall, Oaklawn Park in Arkansas during the winter, Razo will be missed by many more people. More than the people who cashed a bet on him. More than the grooms and trainers and owners who were involved with Razo’s rides.

As a handicapper of the Chicago circuit, I remember him as a solid lunch-pail rider who gave honest rides each time, be it in a rich stakes or your lowly weekday claimer. I’d often watch him take his skills to the other midwest tracks–Prairie Meadows in Iowa, for one.

I had the pleasure of briefly meeting Razo in September 2010 at Arlington Park.I then frequented Daily Racing Form’s FormBlog forum moderated by Dan Illman. An idea was floated that spring on the forum to have a meetup of epic proportions then, which became known as the FormBlog Convention. It’s been successful enough to inspire two sequels (one at Del Mar in San Diego, another at Gulfstream Park in South Florida). A track was selected, one that would be central to many but with a strong home-grown community of followers.

Arlington Park was the choice. The Author was one of its organizers. September 11, Arlington-Washington Futurity Day, and the 12th, the dates.

One perk of the convention was the opportunity to have a race in your namesake. From the September 14, 2010 post on Illman’s Blog

“The fifth race was generously titled “The DRF FormBlog Convention,” and our group was ushered to the paddock for an up-close and personal view of the horses. There, Jessica Pacheco [on air paddock host] graciously posed for pictures and signed some autographs for some of the bloggers.

Candyonmymind paddles badly with her left fore, but she found a field she could handle, rallying from off the pace to score for Eddie Razo. The track graciously gave us the winner’s trophy as well as two pairs of jockey goggles. “

Sure, it was a blah claimer, of the never won two variety. Sure, it was wasn’t either of the Grade Three features. But the trophy, the thrill of standing next to Razo…race quality was moot at that moment.

With Arlington Park starting up its meet in a week and a half, I would have appreciated the opportunity to wager on, perhaps meet, Razo again.

I guess it won’t be.

Enjoying the game was so much simpler then.

Now, each single day of racing I play equates to multiple days of preparation. Analyzing data, checking weather forecasts, running pace scenarios through my head and attempting to gauge if there will be a track bias, consumes the bulk of my mental energy. All of which, ultimately, is to capture that same feeling years ago when I’d come out ahead twenty cents on a horse that I liked for much simpler reasons.

In my mind, I fashion myself as a handicapper. Not a particularly great one, but average. I’m able to spot a horse that was somehow overlooked and sitting on a big race, cash a few tickets and end the day with hopefully more than I started. Once one race ended, I was already onto the next. But I wasn’t enjoying the winning any more than I was accepting the losing.  This isn’t to imply that I wasn’t a fan, I still loved the game and could appreciate great performances – regardless of whether I had a financial stake in them or not.

So this was my rut. Horses, races, odds, tracks and surfaces became nothing more than data. Combined with the cacophony of opinions and alternate interpretations of the same data from the people I respect in social media, it became an exhausting mental overload. In fact, some of the people I talk with the most frequently are ones I haven’t even met. Faceless, not knowing them personally and opinions I could easily disagree with made them simply part of the matrix.

I needed a fresh perspective. It sounds silly when I think about it, but I needed racing to be fun again. If even a shred of what I’m saying sounds familiar to any of you, I have three words. Go to Kentucky.

Drive the back roads around the stallion farms in Midway and you can feel the history. It quickly rekindles the flame of passion that burns within each racing fan.

I was fortunate to meet Jen Roytz, Marketing Director for Three Chimneys Farm, who took me on a tour of their gorgeous stallion bars and paddocks.  There was Dynaformer, one of the world’s leading sires. Yes It’s True was walking across a lush field to his paddock. One of my favorite turf horses in the past few years, Red Giant, was getting his morning bath.

Red Giant at Three Chimneys

And then there was Big Brown. A horse that I thought could be the next Triple Crown winner, standing only feet in front of me. Just days before, these horses were words on my past performances, statistics on how well their offspring ran at age four over synthetic surfaces, or vague memories of wagers I may or may not have cashed. But in that moment, I felt like I was in the racing equivalent of fantasy camp.

Big Brown at Three Chimeys

As the screen in my mind began replaying the amazing performances from each of these horses, I became star struck. There was Big Brown winning the derby from post position 20. There was Red Giant running the fastest 10 Furlongs in history.  As I watched other tours go past, some with children too young to even remember these horses on the track, I saw the look of awe and wonder in their eyes. That was what I missed, and was now starting to feel again.

Before I arrived at the farm, I was running through a list of questions I planned to ask Jen. About pedigrees, the breeding industry and which of Three Chimneys younger stallions were they most excited about. I forgot all of my questions as soon as I drove through the gates.

Yes It's True out for his morning walk

Walking between the barns, with the smell of fresh hay and the sounds of muted hoof steps filling the air, I could only look around and ask, “Would it be safe to say you have the greatest office in the world?”  It was an easy question for her to answer.

From Three Chimneys, I went to Keeneland. Words will never do justice to how beautiful a track this is.  Even though I arrived with my hundreds of pages of past performances, Thoro-Graph figures and race-by-race analysis, I didn’t use any of it.  And I wasn’t alone. The vast majority of people I stood next to in the paddock didn’t have their faces buried in Daily Racing Forms or spending an eternity in front of wagering terminals generating reams of tickets.  I overheard strategies that revolved more around horse names, lucky numbers or physical appearance than speed figures, trainer stats or bounce potential. These were adults playing the same way I did as a child, and win or lose; they were having a blast doing it.

I spent Friday walking through the grandstand and paddock, simply soaking it all in. Sure, I made a few bets; even cashed a couple, but I can’t tell you what my ROI was. That was data, and I was committed to not focus on it.  On Saturday, I did something I’ve never done at the track. I didn’t spend a dime. I stood with fellow racing fan, Crystal Conway, on a quiet spot by the 5/16^th pole, away from the crowds, and just enjoyed the moment.

With Crystal Conway at Keeneland

From where we stood, the only way to know a race was happening was the four seconds when the horses would pass us. Muffled hoofbeats over the Polytrack, punctuated by the popping sound as jockeys began to ask their horses to run were the only sounds we heard.

Without wagering, the data became insignificant. At that moment, I was a fan again. I was at the track, spending time with the people I once knew only through social media.   In doing so, I developed a deeper connection to them and our shared love of everything that is truly great about racing.

Now, with three weeks until one of the biggest wagering days of the year, I’m approaching racing with a renewed enthusiasm and fresh perspective. Win or lose, handicapper or fan, each of us is part of the greatest sport in the world. Savor it, relish every moment, go to the farms and see the champions that have brought each of us so much excitement.

The data will still be there when you get back.

Saturday’s Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse is one of the last major prep races prior to the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Despite its Grade I status, few winners of the Blue Grass have gone on to actually win the Kentucky Derby (the most recent was Strike The Gold in 1991!). Since Keeneland installed its synthetic surface (Polytrack) after the 2006 spring meet the Blue Grass has produced a series of long shot winners with strong turf pedigrees yet little chance of winning the Derby. Prior to 2007 wasn’t much better as Keeneland’s dirt track tended to favor one-dimensional speed horses.

With two-year old Juvenile Champion Hansen entered along with 12 mostly capable challengers this year’s Blue Grass figures to have a much greater impact on the Derby outcome.

Keeneland Race 11 – G.1 Blue Grass Stakes ($750K) – 1 and 1/8 Miles  – 6:18 Post

PP

1       HEAVY BREATHING  (12-1)

2      GUNG HO  (30-1)

3       PROSPECTIVE  (10-1)

4       HANSEN (6/5)

5       RUSSIAN GREEK  (50-1)

6       DULLAHAN  (6-1)

7       POLITICALLYCORRECT (30-1)

8      MIDNIGHT CROONER (15-1)

9       HOLY CANDY (30-1)

10     HOWE GREAT (6-1)

11      EVER SO LUCKY (12-1)

12     HERO OF ORDER (12-1)

13     SCATMAN (12-1)

#4 Hansen’s the deserving 6/5 morning line favorite and could go off at less than even money. It’s hard to find fault with his performances to date and he’s a perfect 2 or 2 on polytrack. In truth, we simply don’t know how good Hansen really is or can be in the future. He’s never raced 9 furlongs before and the Blue Grass field features better horses than those he manhandled at Aqueduct in the Gotham Stakes. Hansen may also face early pace pressure from the likes of Scatman, Heavy Breathing, Midnight Crooner, or even Howe Great, that compromise his ability to hold off his foes at the wire.

The conundrum, for me at least, is that once you get beyond Hansen there’s 5 to 10 other horses that could conceivably win. Howe Great looked stellar winning the Palm Beach Stakes and his turf form should transfer well to Keeneland’s polytrack. Dullahan was 2nd to Howe Great in the Palm Beach, but he’s was coming off a long layoff. He should improve in his 2nd race back and he’s 1 for 1 on Keeneland’s main track.

Pedigree handicappers will note that horses sired by Kitten’s Joy have fared well at Keeneland so 30-1 shots #2 Gung Ho and #7 Politicallycorrect cannot be completely ignored. Along the same lines, Scat Daddy has proven a potent sire in his early stud career as evidenced by Daddy Long Legs’ recent victory in the UAE Derby (on a synthetic track) and Daddy Nose Best’s wins in the El Camino Real (on a synthetic track) and the Sunland Derby. #13 Scatman is another by Scat Daddy; he has a win at Keeneland and may be dangerous despite a poor post draw.

The entry that most intrigues me is #3 Prospective. He’s consistently competitive and enters the race in fine form after a game win the Tampa Bay Derby. Like Hansen, he’s a perfect 2 for 2 on synthetic tracks, though his poorest finish came in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when finishing last in a race won by Hansen. At 10-1 on the morning line, his odds could approach 15-1 or higher by post time. Along with #6 Dullahan, he’ll be stalking the pace. Both have a puncher’s chance to upset Hansen, but Prospective should offer the most value if nothing else.

Without a doubt, the most likely winner is Hansen. However, at odds-on you can’t bet him to win and expect much money in return and it appears foolish to take a strong stand against him. Thankfully there is a bet known as the dime superfecta, perhaps the best wager in horse racing. My strategy will be to key Hansen on top; use Prospective, Dullahan, Howe Great, and Scatman in the 2nd position; use those same horses with Heavy Breathing, Gung Ho, Politicallycorrect, Midnight Crooner, Holy Candy, and Ever So Lucky in 3rd position; and the same 10 horses in 4th position. A 10 cent base bet will cost me $28.80, but a similar strategy paid off at $175 in Hansen’s odds on win in the Gotham as compared to a $54 payout on a $30 win bet. Oh yeah, I’ll make a small wager on Prospective to win and with Hansen in an exacta just in case he lands that right hook.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

The Arkansas Derby once again manages to draw a talented full field of eleven. In the gate Saturday will be Southwest and Rebel Stakes winner #5 SECRET CIRCLE (5/2), San Felipe Stakes winner #11 BODEMEISTER (9/5), Delta Jackpot winner #9 SABERCAT (15-1), Rebel Stakes runner up #7 OPTIMIZER (6-1) and the runner up of the Sunland Derby, #6 ISN’T HE CLEVER (6-1).

SECRET CIRCLE’s only blemish in six starts was a second place effort back in January in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. His wins in the Rebel and Southwest were a testament to how much of a fighter this horse is. Both were hard fought wins to the wire while visibly tiring. Whether or not he wants to go nine furlongs remains to be seen, but you have to like what he has accomplished on the racetrack so far.

The morning line favorite is BODEMEISTER, but I expect he and SECRET CIRCLE to vie for post time favoritism. He’s a lightly raced horse with only three starts, and at a short price, there are just too many questions for me. It looks like he’s going to be on the lead or pressing it which could leave him vulnerable. I find it a little interesting that Baffert ships him in here rather than staying at Santa Anita. Come summertime I think he will be a major player, but he lacks the seasoning that other contenders have in the race.

If you’re looking for alternates at a bit of a price, turn your attention to SABERCAT, OPTIMIZER, and ISN’T HE CLEVER. While SABERCAT had absolutely no excuse for his poor effort in the Rebel, it was his first start of the year and his connections (Asmussen/Nakatani) win at a 28% clip. OPTIMIZER and ISN’T HE CLEVER were both very game in defeat last time and will look to legitimatize those efforts to become major contenders.

Personally I think SECRET CIRCLE will get the dream trip. There is plenty of pace with BODEMEISTER and ISN’T HE CLEVER. SECRET CIRCLE can just draft in fourth or fifth place and pick them up in the stretch.

Good Luck!

You could say that the lack of 1 or 2 clear standouts is a sign of mediocrity. I respectfully disagree. I believe it reflects a depth of talent and quality we don’t often see and which may produce a truly special horse – a gem if you will. It should also produce a terrific betting race – and by good betting race, I mean the opportunity to win a lot of money for a relatively small wager (yes, the Dime Super is your friend).

To paraphrase Sam Spade, Mrs. Munday didn’t raise any children dippy enough to make guesses about possible Triple Crown winners (considering we haven’t had one in 33 years). However, it’s likely this year’s Derby will feature a breakout performance by a remarkable horse; and at remarkably good odds (and large exotic payouts)!

But which horse? That is the question isn’t it.

Maybe “the Dozen” will help . . .

(PS – don’t sleep on the “also receiving votes” bin as there a few in there that could make some noise this Saturday)

Special thanks to our fearless Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Crystal Conway

Race 8 — Cryptoclearance Stakes — 1 1/16 miles on dirt — post time of 5:08 CT

A listed stakes for $60K for older males. DENHAM may have trolling around in $5000 starter handicaps last year but he’s emerged as a player on the statebred stakes scene. I’ll forgive his last start at Turfway, as he’s one who loves dirt most and his only bad race came last fall in the Buck’s Boy when he was put on the shelf too long after a turf stakes. Like the long works for stamina and the trainer is quietly having a solid meet.

BIG LOOIE goes second off the layoff today for trainer C. Janks. Winner of the Buck’s Boy Stakes, a $125K stakes for statebreds two back over this same Hawthorne dirt, he cashed checks in many of his dirt races. His only win was in that stakes, however, but he is seven of nine in the money lifetime at Hawthorne.

GLEAM OF HOPE was last seen with a fourth in a listed stakes at Sam Houston and with minor awards in stakes at Fair Grounds that feed into the New Orleans Handicap. He’s got a second and two fourths in his dirt starts and you could make the case he’s not facing no one better than he was facing down south. With respect to figures, he’ll be a threat if he replicates his New Orleans races.

#4 DENHAM (6/1)

#7 BIG LOOIE (5/1)

#8 GLEAM OF HOPE (7/2)

Longshot: #6 TAPTOWNE (10/1) is one of two in here from Michael Reavis (the other, FREE FIGHTER, is better suited going much longer). It appears he doesn’t win too often. However his best starts have been dirt and he won the N2X allowance that serves as a side-door prep to this event. Didn’t disgrace himself going against fringe-level statebred stakes sprinters two back. Given the popularity of the rail-drawn horse, he could be easily ignored.

Race 9 – Grade 3 TVG Illinois Derby – 1 1/8 miles on dirt – post time of 5:45 p.m. CT

I’m not big on the favorite, CURRENCY SWAP, in this race for three year olds and I have a different pick. Check out the fine folks at Thorofan for the full preview.

Be sure to check out our twitter box on the far right side of the screen, as The Author will be live on scene from Hawthorne for tomorrow’s Illinois Derby. You might even see some additional picks there.

Good luck everyone.