NYRA’s “Grand Slam”
The Grand Slam wager has been around since 2006, yet far too few people even know about it or how it works. The bet is spread over four races and offers 27 different possible winning combinations. The object is to pick a horse to finish 1st 2nd or 3rd (hit the board) in the first three races and then select the official winner of the last race (offered races 5-8 on a 9 race card). The wager has a $1 base/minimum, and while the payoffs might not be as high as the Pick 4, there’s still plenty of value to be had.

Betting Strategy
It’s seemingly easier to select a horse to hit the board than it is to select four straight winners. One key to the grand slam is finding vulnerable favorites. If favorites hit the ticket in every race of the Grand Slam, it doesn’t pay very much, but if one favorite runs up the track, you might be playing for a nice return. Another key to the wager is structuring the best ticket to minimize costs and maximize your return.

As an example, if a bettor constructed a mythical ticket by making three picks in the first leg; single in the second; two the third and two picks in the fourth and final leg, the ticket be 3x1x2x2; for a $1 that would cost $12. If any of the selections in the first three races hit the board, and either of the two in the last leg wins the race, the bettor would have one winning ticket. But if all three hit the board in the first race you would have three live tickets. By selecting multiple horses in the first three races, you set yourself up to cash multiple times if more than one selection hits the board.

This wager is a lot of fun to play and for a small investment; it has potential to pay big dividends. They largest payoff I’ve seen was at Saratoga on August 7th 2009, a $1 Grand Slam ticket returned $1,695! So I encourage everyone to give it a try the next time you find yourself playing Aqueduct, Belmont or Saratoga.

Steve’s take: The Sam F. Davis features the 3 year debut of highly regarded BRETHERN (#10 5/2 ML). He was undefeated in two starts at age 2 and, despite the 2 and a half month layoff, may be the best horse in the field. A logical challenger is #8 MONZON (3-1) who stormed home to win the Count Fleet Stakes at AQU; however, it was a small field of questionable quality.

An interesting long shot is #9 RIBO BOBO (20-1). He showed promise running at Calder last year, but 2 disappointing starts in 2011 indicates he may be in poor form. Then again, he’s had legitimate excuses in the last two (read the footnotes) and the trainer’s trying blinkers. Note the trainer’s eye-popping ROI for both “3rd off the layoff” and “1st time blinkers.” I’m using him underneath BRETHERN and may consider a win bet if the price is right come post time.

Good Luck!

1st Race – MSW ($19K)

#3 RED COYOTE (3-1) Is a half to 2 multiple stakes winning horses Gold Coyote earner of $425k and also Coyote Legend earner of over $320k. His 1st race was a toss and trainer Brett Calhoun will not let that happen again. #4 CITY NAMED GLORY (6-1) This colts 1/2 sister, NO OTHER TONE – earner of over $143k – is on display in the $50k Yellow Rose Stakes later in the card.  His trainer Jack Bruner hits on 1st time starters at a 28% clip and has been working well. #7 C BUCK RUN (8-1) flashed great early speed in his only start and finished poorly but gets 1st time lasix and the education of already having a race under his belt. #1 BELLVILLE (4-1) is a 1st time starter from Steve Asmussen but will have the disadvantage of having to hustle from the rail.

2nd Race – Bara Lass S. ($50K)

#1A BLUSHING SIS (6-1) – This filly by Giacomo cuts back to one turn where she has run her best races and already has a work over the local strip. #4 INTIMIDATING WOMEN (7-2) –  This filly is a bit of a wild card but she could see her self alone on an early lead and could have something left for the drive. Program #2 (Post #1) PLAYGIRL PROSPECT (8-1) – This is a special filly, she belongs to the recently retired friend of mine, the great “Cotton” Holmes, and she’s really been doing everything right. #5 PATTY’s PRIDE (2-1) – I’m not completly sure of this filly’s ability to sprint over dirt but she did have a very encouraging drill over this track Jan 14th 4F 48.2.

*pick 4, 2nd race 1-4-5 with 3rd race 2-10 with 4th race 5-9-10 with 5th race 8 =$18

3rd Race – Groovy S. ($50K)

#2 ACES N KINGS (7-2) is a very battled tested young gelding who has won 5 of 8 races at 4 different tracks and hurt jockey Calvin Borel along the way but nonetheless he should be 1-2 in this race. #10 TAMASTIC (6-1) – Is a 1/2 brother to multiple stakes winner Taptam earner of over $443k and is the favorite in tonights 7th race. If ACES N KINGS stubbs his toe this one can run him down. #3 SAND DUSTY (12-1) put together a nice maiden score at Remington Park and has the right to improve. #6 HIDDEN RECIPE (10-1) – Should have a nice effort after running a bad race at Zia.

*Should be an easy exacta using the #2 Aces N Kings and #10 Tamtastic

Race #4 -San Jacinto S. ($50K)

#5 KITE SEEKER (4-1) – Karl Broberg should have this 7yo mare primed for a big effort. #10 THE CAT WHO (3-1) has to overcome the outside post and has the speed to get there. If this mare makes an early uncontested lead her heart gets big and she is hard to run by. #9 JIGGY JO (5-1) is an improving filly by Broken Vow that has showed she can run. #4 RUBY’s BIG BAND (10-1) could get overlooked and round out your deep exotics.

5th Race – Spirit of Texas ($50K)

#8 CHIEF OF AFFAIRS (3-1) – This races defending champ, and I would be surprised if he goes off above even money. He is battle tested against great sprinters and is fresh. #4 GOLD COYOTE (9-2) hasnt raced since Dec ’09 but is honest as a local sprinter comes and Bobby Walker chose him over the 1 horse. #1 PACIFIC TSUMANI (8-1) could round out an all Brett Calhoun trifecta. #5 RANGER DANGER (8-1) is in solid form and is very honest.

6th race – Yellow Rose S. ($50K)

#8 NO OTHER TONE (7-2) is a very consistent mare that has back to back bullet works. #9 TIN TOP CAT (6-1) is coming into this race off a layoff for the red hot barn of Brett Calhoun and with a top effort can win. #1 TRULY LUCKY (9-2) will be making her 1st start for Broberg off a $40k claim from the Fair Grounds and has been running some very nice races. #1A JOY’s PARADISE (9-2) is on the improve and can challenge for the win.

* pick 4, 6th race 1-8-9 with 7th race 3-5 with 8th race 5-6 with 9th race 3-4-7 =$36

7th Race – Star of Texas S. ($100K)

#3 QUIET AGAIN (3-1) may give the mare Taptam all she can handle. #5 TAPTAM (2-1) takes on the boys but there is no Zenyatta in here who beat her in last years Apple Blossom, she is very capable of winning this. #4 DANDY’s LEGACY (10-1) has improved and can win with top effort.

8th Race – Richard King S. ($50K)

#6 SCRAPPY ROO (9-2) is the bet of the day. Since Asmussen tagged this one himself for $10K he has went 2 for 2 on the lawn and looked impressive; he has also won 6 of 9 and banked $165k over Houston’s turf. #3 SKIP A SMILE (6-1) comes back to Danny Pish and tries the turf for the 1st time but being out of a Strawberry Road mare he should adjust well. #5 BRENTWOOD BULLET (2-1) has run 2 poor races after stringing together several nice races but could rebound. #7 VALID MESSAGE (8-1) didnt like the yielding course and could run a big race for Broberg.

9th Race – Starter Allowance

#4 EDPLICIT (2-1) has found a nice spot for red hot barn Karl Broberg. #7 BAGGY CAT (3-1) has been sharp since he was given some time in July. #3 RARE FLYER (10-1) is being overlooked at 10-1 and fits real well with these.

* 3-4-7 tri box many times

10th Race – MSW ($19K)

#1 VOLTURI (15-1) is capable of winning this race at long odds after catching the outside post in his last 2 races; his dam has produced multple winners. #7 WORSETHANYOUTHINK (6-1) has run 2 seconds in his last 3 races. #3 INTIMDIATING MONEY (9-2) can pick uo the pieces if the pace falls apart. #4 HALIFAX FLYER (2-1) ran a very nice 2nd in his last start.

And the WirePlayers Solar System of Handicapping (Week 4) stays in the southern region with the Silverbulletday Stakes “community race” at Fair Grounds.  Good luck!

For our community race, we chose the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs for two reasons: 1) it’s the local prep for 3 year olds gearing up for the Tampa Bay Derby, a key stop on the Derby trail; and 2) we wanted to honor WirePlayers contributor Dylan J. who’ll be visiting the track in person this weekend.  Dylan is getting the lay of the land while escaping the cold and snow of New England.

Pasco Stakes
My wagering performance at Tampa was horrible last year and I’m not big on playing 7 furlong races. Despite those misgivings, this looks like a teriffic betting race. The favorite, #5 MANICERO, looks vulnerable due to the expected pace scenario. I’ll try to beat him with #9 DEPECHE CHAT and #10 BERT B DON. I’ll key them in the exotics and go deep underneath hoping MANICERO gets torched early and finishes off the board. If MANICERO finishes 1st or 2nd it’s my tickets that will be toast.

Dania Beach Stakes
For my optional play, I debated between two races on Sunday: the 6th at Fair Grounds and the 9th at Gulfstream Park. I settled on Gulfstream, the Dania Beach Stakes for 3 three year olds at 1 mile on the turf.  The favorite is #4 LIL BIT O’ FUN, but #1 ADIRONDACK SUMMER and #7 BRILLIANT SPEED (at an attractive 8-1 ML!) look to have just as big a chance. Paco Lopez is a hot jockey on #8 SWIFT WARRIOR, who finished 3rd two weeks ago across town as the favorite in the Tropical Park Derby. This race looks wide open with #1, #4, #7, and #8 all with good chances; and #3 is intriguing as well. I’ll structure my tickets using all of the above in various combos.

Good luck my friends!

Here’s how it works: each weekend we’ll match wits to see who takes in the most cash by playing two races. One common race and one race of our own choosing.  You can bet any amount on any type of one-race bet with the winner based on highest return on investment (ROI). Anyone’s welcome to play along to try and beat us.

This week’s community race is the first graded stakes of the year for three-year old colts, the Tropical Park Derby.  A tough betting race with 12 entries and one also eligible (AE), I’ll take a stand with #1 SWIFT WARRIOR.  He’s Calder-based, runs well on grass, and might like stretching out to 9 furlongs.

For my optional race, I stayed at Calder for the Tropical Park Oaks; largely because I think LAUREN BYRD is likely to win.  I’ll single her and try to nail the trifecta with some choice plays underneath. There’s a slight chance MICHELLE’S TRIP might upset LAUREN BYRD who’s coming off a layoff, so I’ll put her on top of a small exacta and trifecta ticket in hopes of catching a price.  By the way, LAUREN BYRD seems worthy of a win bet at the 5/2 morning line, but I’ll be surprised if she goes off that high.

If you wanna play along, just leave your picks in the comments section and see if you can grab the cash and the glory.  Weekly winners are eligible to win swag such as a WirePlayers t-shirt & other collector’s items (aka stuff around the house I don’t know what to do with).

With the addition of fifty-cent minimums for this year’s Pick 4s for the Breeders Cup, these exciting multi-race wagers have never been more accessible.  The new minimums allow you to build bigger tickets, while also playing a backup with live longshots that you may have left off in years past.  Friday’s all championships Pick 4 has a guaranteed pool of $750,000, Saturday’s early all championships Pick 4 has a $1 million guaranteed pool and the late all championships pick 4 has a guaranteed  pool of $1.5 million.

Below are the tickets I’ve put together for Friday and Saturday, with horses listed in order of preference.

Friday, Race 7 – F & M Sprint, Juvenile Fillies, F & M Turf and Ladies Classic

Leg 1: MY JEN, SECRED GYPSY, CHAMPAGNE D’ORO, RIGHTLY SO, SWITCH

Leg 2:  R. HEAT LIGHTNING, SOUNDWAVE, TELL A KELLY, BELIEVE IN A.P., THEYSKENS’ THEORY

Leg 3: MIDDAY (Single on main ticket), PLUMANIA, RED DESIRE, KEERTANA

Leg 4: BLIND LUCK, HAVRE DE GRACE

Price:  $0.50 = $100 for all horses

$1 with MIDDAY Single = $50

Saturday – Race 4 – Juvenile Turf, Sprint, Turf Sprint, Juvenile

Leg 1: BANNED, MANTOBA, UTLEY

Leg 2: WISE DAN, GIROLAMO, KINSALE KING

Leg 3: ROSE CATHERINE, BRIDGETOWN, SILVER TIMBER, QUICK ENOUGH, UNZIP ME, DUE DATE

Leg 4: BOYS AT TOSCONOVA, ROGUE ROMANCE, UNCLE MO, J.B.’S THUNDER, BIONDETTI

Price: $0.50 = $135

$1 with just BOYS AT TOSCONOVA and UNCLE MO in Leg 4 = $108

Saturday, Race 8 – Mile, Dirt Mile, Turf, Classic

Leg 1: GOLDIKOVA, PACO BOY, PROVISO

Leg 2: HERE COMES BEN, GAYEGO, VINEYARD HAVEN, MORNING LINE

Leg 3: BEHKABAD, WINCHESTER, DANGEROUS MIDGE, WORKFORCE

LEG 4: ZENYATTA, LOOKIN AT LUCKY, BLAME

Price: $0.50 = $72

$1 Singling GOLDIKOVA and ZENYATTA = $16

Best of luck to everyone. I’d like to know who you’re playing in the Pick 4s so leave a comment or talk to me on Twitter at NJDerek

When handicapping turf races, one thing to consider is that European shippers, even those with mediocre records, routinely do well in North America (even when stepping up in class). Sunday’s G1 Woodbine Mile might offer a case in point.

THE USUAL Q.T. (3-1) should take most of the money and deservedly so. However, I see four angles that indicate FAMOUS NAME (6-1) has a terrific shot:

1) FAMOUS NAME ran against top competition in Europe (facing RIP VAN WINKLE and TWICE OVER in last race) and despite being a G1, the Woodbine Mile may be a drop in class

2) He’s cutting back in distance from 10 to 8 furlongs (turf cut-backs are a favorite angle to bet)

3) FAMOUS NAME is getting first-time Lasix (horses sometimes improve when using Lasix the first time)

4) Pat Smullen travels from Europe for the race  (don’t think he’d make the trip if he didn’t have a great shot).

FAMOUS NAME is my play. His last place finish in the Irish Champion Stakes is a throw-out and will help juice the post-time odds.

In Belmont’s G1 Garden City on Sunday, CHECK THE LABEL (5/2), SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN (5-1), QUEEN OF THE CREEK (3-1), and NO EXPLAINING (6-1) are the top contenders. CHECK THE LABEL was impressive in the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs, but the field was nothing special.  I love SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN’s late kick, but she has a horrible case of “seconditis” – finishing 2nd in 4 straight stakes races – and maybe she just can’t beat graded stakes competition. Irish-bred NO EXPLAINING may offer the best value and will be charging hard at the end; putting her in the exacta with CHECK THE LABEL.

Check the spreadsheet below to check out some more picks from Rob Fundter (Amateurcapper), Tencentcielo (Giving My Ten Cents), and Tony Bada Bing (A Leg Up):

WINCHESTER appears the most likely winner; his form is solid and he has two Grade I wins.  However, it’s hard to like a 2-1 morning line on a closer who can be compromised by a slow pace or encounter traffic problems.  If his price floats to 7/2 or higher I’ll bet to win; otherwise I’ll pair him in exactas and trifectas with a few long shots likely to hit the board.  But who?

#1 SIMMARD (10-1) was last seen in January at Gulfstream when beaten 14 lengths in a $100K optional claiming race.  Not too encouraging, huh? Keep in mind: 1) trainer Roger Attfield is great with turf horses, and 2) last time SIMMARD returned after an 8-month layoff he won easily at almost 10-1.  Will history repeat?  This isn’t an optional claimer, but he can definitely hit the board.

#2 GRAND COUTURIER (8-1) is a G1 winner and Bowling Green defending champ.  Only problem is his 2010 races have been lackluster, albeit against tough competition.  At 7 yrs old, he may have lost a step , but this field (with the exception of WINCHESTER) is weaker than he’s faced lately so maybe he can hit the board as well.

#3 AL KHALI (4-1) gets Julien Leparoux since Desormeaux is injured.  I view this as a bit of an upgrade, but not much.  AL KHALI should be forwardly placed and will threaten, but I think he tires in the lane.

#4 STRIKE A DEAL (6-1) has shown three poor efforts after winning the GII Dixie Handicap at 14-1.  If you’re looking for positives, his last win came with Dominguez riding and he’s back aboard today.  Maybe Ramon gets him to relax and sets a slow pace; however, he’ll have to contend with AL KHALI upfront.

Leaving both #6 GABRIEL’S HILL (20-1) and #7 DRY MARTINI (12-1) off my tickets; just don’t see proven turf form to merit a bet.

#8 SOUTHWEST (15-1) appears overmatched given the jump in class, but Javier Castellano is an excellent turf jockey and coming off a successful run at Saratoga.  An all Virginia-bred exacta?.

#9 INTERPATION (15-1) shows absolutely nothing for long stretches and then drops a bomb when least expected.  I don’t expect a bomb this weekend & apparently neither does Jose Lezcano.

#10 FOLLOWMYFOOTSTEPS (15-1) is an intriguing entry especially if you look at the trip notes – always tries hard, though he’s jumping in class, too.   Another who can hit the board, but wondering if 8 to 9 furlongs is a better distance.

#11 JEUNE-TURC had a dull effort in United Nations, but that was against a tougher field and maybe he just needed a race under his belt after arriving from Brazil.  Improvement off the last race puts him in the mix.

So there it is, I’ll try to juice WINCHESTER’s price by using some long shots (especially 1, 10, & 11) underneath.

Please check out Amateurcapper, Tony Bada Bing, and Tencentcielo’s picks for some of the other stakes racing action today and share your thoughts:

Good luck this weekend!

Race 8: $50K stakes at 5.5 furlongs for two-year olds.  Tough race to handicap since most two-year olds are lightly raced and many have never raced on grass.  So my strategy focuses on pedigree, connections, and proven turf form, if any.

Of 10 starters, I settled #1 Z APPEAL (9/5), #3 THE FLYING WHIZZER (6-1), and #10 LIPSTICK TRACES (12-1).  Out of the venerable GHOSTZAPPER, Z APPEAL won by 7 lengths in his first race at Churchill Downs after getting bumped at the start and going five wide.  Though untested on grass, Dale Romans should have this colt ready to run.  After getting beat over 20 lengths in his first two races on dirt, THE FLYING WHIZZER improved on turf with a nice MSW win at Colonial.  A stakes race is a tough spot for a first time starter, but LIPSTICK TRACES gets a vote of confidence from Ramon Dominguez.  Also noticed the Dam (MY SWEET WESTLY) has 4 winners from 4 starters; two on the turf.  This might be a nice trifecta play too.

Race 9: $50K stakes at 5.5 furlongs for two-year old fillies.  Lots of early speed in this race, so I’ll play two horses that can either stalk or come from off the pace: #5 MOLLY MINGUN (3-1) and #9 VALIANT STAR (7/2).

MOLLY MINGUN beat VALIANT STAR in their first race and VALIANT STAR came back to win her next race by 13 lengths.  LATIKA is enticing off a 7 length victory, but I’m trying to keep my ticket reasonable and noticed that Eric Camacho seemingly chose to ride VALIANT STAR over LATIKA in this spot.

Race 10: $50K Kitten’s Joy at 8.5 furlongs for older horses.  I loved #3 VANQUISHER (7/2) in the one mile Da Hoss stakes and he just missed after getting trapped inside.  An extra half furlong and some racing luck may help this time.  However, this race looks a little tougher than the last, so I’ll go 5 deep and hope for a bomb.  In addition to VANQUISHER, I’ll use #4 SOUTHERN ANTHEM (15-1), #5 FOREST ATTACK (6-1), #6 HAWSER (30-1 “the bomb”), and #7 BALTIMORE BOB (9/2).

BALTIMORE BOB beat VANQUISHER to win the Da Hoss and looks to be in great form.  SOUTHERN ANTHEM is an honest turf horse and FOREST ATTACK’s synthetic form may translate well to turf  (Dominguez riding is a plus).  HAWSER gets another good turf jock in Karamanos and seems to like firm turf – he may blow up the Pick 5.

Race 11: G3 Virginia Oaks at 9 furlongs.  With two graded stakes wins on the turf #8 CHECK THE LABEL (7/5) looks like a logical single, but I’m also throwing in #2 SANTA MARTITA (7/2) and #3 MIDWAY HOLIDAY.  MARTITA has a solid trainer (Michael Matz) jockey (Javier Castellano) combo and held her own in some tough turf races.  MIDWAY is 2 for 2 on turf and don’t want her going 3 for 3 without being on my ticket.

Race 12: G2 Virginia Derby at classic distance of 10 furlongs.  Okay, it’s time for my single and no surprise it’s #7 PADDY O’ PRADO (7/5).  He romped over a decent field in the Colonial Turf Cup, but now faces three graded stakes winners in #2 KRYTPON, #3 INTERACTIF and #8 STATELY VICTOR.  STATELY VICTOR might be a smart play due to the expected pace scenario.  However, both STATELY VICTOR and INTERACTIF last raced in the Belmont and wondering if they’ve fully recovered from that tough challenge.

There it is, 90 combinations (out 104,000 possible) over 5 stakes races on the turf.  I’d like to use a few more, but you can’t bet them all.  Let me know if I missed any winners.

Good luck this weekend!

Personally, I don’t see the point in betting lukewarm favorite TAKE THE POINTS at a short price when there’s some live plays at more attractive odds.  WINCHESTER, coming off a victory in the “race nobody saw”, aka the G1 Manhattan, is a logical play.  Unfortunately, we’re not going to get the 21-1 we got on Belmont Stakes day.

A good alternative may be #6 JEUNE-TURC at 10-1.  He’s raced in quality 12 furlong races in Brazil so I figure the distance isn’t a problem. A fast early pace by ACCLAMATION, STRAIGHT STORY, and GET SERIOUS, will also give JEUNE-TURC and WINCHESTER a hot pace to run down.  Unfortunately, they can’t let themselves get too far back entering the stretch as Monmouth’s turf course hasn’t been kind to deep closers.

Speaking of GET SERIOUS, he’s got 8 wins in 10 starts at Monmouth, including two in a row.  He offers a solid “horse for the course” angle at 8-1 on the ML.  Though I’m worried about the the pace scenario, Monmouth’s turf track has been fair for early speed.

Lots of options here.  I’ll play against the favorite TAKE THE POINTS by using WINCHESTER and JEUNE-TURC.  GET SERIOUS can’t be completely dismissed and neither can CHINCHON (5-1), or even LAUREATE CONDUCTOR (20-1!).  I’m going deep underneath and hoping for a chaotic finish.

Another decent betting race on the turf is the $50K Daniel Van Clief Stakes at Colonial Downs (for VA breds). The overwhelming favorite is Todd Pletcher’s STORM PLAY who’s taking a big class drop after two G3s. FRISKY THUNDER at 5/2 also looks tough after hitting the board in a pair of $50K stakes at Colonial.

I’m going in another direction with #2 QUICK DELIVERY at 8-1.  He only has one win in seven starts, but seems to prefer turf.  I’ll use him underneath the favs and also take a shot with him on top as well. Wish me luck!

Enjoy the races and have a happy and safe 4th of July!!