The defection of Uncle Mo just prior to last year’s Derby meant a wide open field with no clear cut favorite. Animal Kingdom won impressively at over 20-1, but some argue the field he beat lacked depth, if not talent. This year’s field is seemingly wide open, but the talent level on the whole seems much higher. Nonetheless, a direct comparison can be made to WENT THE DAY WELL. He has the same ownership (Team Valor), trainer (Graham Motion), and jockey (Johnny Velasquez) as Animal Kingdom. What’s more, both horses earned their way into the Derby off winning Turfway Park’s Spiral Stakes. Could a Team Valor horse win off prepping on polytrack two years in a row?

In both 2010 and 2009 the sloppy track conditions seemed to benefit Super Saver and Mine That Bird respectively as they received savvy, ground saving trips under Calvin Borel (btw, lookout for EL PADRINO if the track is sloppy next week, he’s a mudder!). The 2008 Derby is not particularly useful either this year as Big Brown was clearly dominant with the only question being whether or not he could overcome post position 20.

That brings us to 2007 and Derby winner Street Sense. Both Street Sense and HANSEN won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. Both also used Keeneland’s Toyota Blue Grass as their last Derby prep race and each finished 2nd as the favorite. A key difference between them is running style – Street Sense was a closer while HANSEN always runs on or near the lead. Given the depth of the 2012 field and HANSEN’s running style and predicted pace scenario, he’s likely to go off higher than Street Sense did in 2007 as the 5-1 favorite.

Winning the Blue Grass has never been a sure path to the Derby winner’s circle. The last horse to win both was Strike The Gold in 1991. That’s not a good sign for 2012 Blue Grass winner DULLAHAN, but going back to 1991 is a blink of the eye compared to 1882.

The 2007 3rd place finisher Curlin resembles BODEMEISTER as both entered the Derby off impressive wins in the Arkansas Derby and neither raced until age 3. What’s notable is that the last horse to win the Derby without racing at age 2 was in 1882 when Apollo won the 8th overall running of Derby (back when the race was contested at 1 and a half miles). Curlin couldn’t overcome 125 years of history, but he did finish 3rd behind Hard Spun and went on to beat Street Sense two weeks later in one of the most exciting finishes in Preakness history.

An intriguing comparison can be found in the 2006 Kentucky Derby won by Barbaro. There were no clear cut favorites in the seemingly deep competitive field as only 3 of the 20 entrants were less than 8-1 at post time. The lukewarm favorite was 5-1 Sweetnorthernsaint (Sam Bowie to Barbaro’s Michael Jordan if you will) and the 2nd choice winner (Barbaro, of course) was over 6-1; a pure gift to his backers no doubt! If you had wheeled him in the exacta for $2 w/all it would have cost you $38 and paid nearly $600 (with 30-1 Bluegrass Cat finishing 2nd), whereas betting that same $38 to win would’ve returned less than half that amount (about $270.00).

As it turned out there was only one great horse in that race, but even though he was an undefeated 5 for 5 going in, few predicted such dominance prior to the Derby (or a potential for greatness that seemed all too obvious just moments later). This year there’s also an undefeated colt entered, Wood Memorial champ GEMOLOGIST. While both Barbaro and GEMOLOGIST were (or are) a perfect 5 for 5 entering the Derby, they were (or are) dismissed by some as untested without a visually impressive race. Barbaro had to gut out a win in the Florida Derby over Sharp Humor and GEMOLOGIST had to out game ALPHA in the stretch of the Wood.

Speaking of ALPHA’s 2nd place finish in the Wood (despite encountering some trouble), Funny Cide won the 2003 Derby at 14-1 after finishing second to Empire Maker in the Wood with a similarly troubled trip. What about that, huh?

Getting back to Barbaro, his lack of a gaudy Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby lead to Sweetnorthernsaint being the favorite off a dominant 9 and a half length victory the Illinois Derby. Likewise, BODEMEISTER might be post time favorite based on his 9 and a half length victory in the Arkansas Derby (you gotta love the BSF devotees).

Soooooo, is BODEMEISTER this year’s Curlin or Apollo? Is ALPHA Funny Cide? Is GEMOLOGIST Barbaro? Is HANSEN Street Sense? Is WENT THE DAY WELL Animal Kingdom? Is DULLAHAN Strike The Gold.

Dunno, but i did write about this year’s Kentucky Derby contenders without mentioning CREATIVE CAUSE or UNION RAGS, but rather Sam Bowie. That’s gotta mean something . . .

Saturday’s Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse is one of the last major prep races prior to the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Despite its Grade I status, few winners of the Blue Grass have gone on to actually win the Kentucky Derby (the most recent was Strike The Gold in 1991!). Since Keeneland installed its synthetic surface (Polytrack) after the 2006 spring meet the Blue Grass has produced a series of long shot winners with strong turf pedigrees yet little chance of winning the Derby. Prior to 2007 wasn’t much better as Keeneland’s dirt track tended to favor one-dimensional speed horses.

With two-year old Juvenile Champion Hansen entered along with 12 mostly capable challengers this year’s Blue Grass figures to have a much greater impact on the Derby outcome.

Keeneland Race 11 – G.1 Blue Grass Stakes ($750K) – 1 and 1/8 Miles  – 6:18 Post

PP

1       HEAVY BREATHING  (12-1)

2      GUNG HO  (30-1)

3       PROSPECTIVE  (10-1)

4       HANSEN (6/5)

5       RUSSIAN GREEK  (50-1)

6       DULLAHAN  (6-1)

7       POLITICALLYCORRECT (30-1)

8      MIDNIGHT CROONER (15-1)

9       HOLY CANDY (30-1)

10     HOWE GREAT (6-1)

11      EVER SO LUCKY (12-1)

12     HERO OF ORDER (12-1)

13     SCATMAN (12-1)

#4 Hansen’s the deserving 6/5 morning line favorite and could go off at less than even money. It’s hard to find fault with his performances to date and he’s a perfect 2 or 2 on polytrack. In truth, we simply don’t know how good Hansen really is or can be in the future. He’s never raced 9 furlongs before and the Blue Grass field features better horses than those he manhandled at Aqueduct in the Gotham Stakes. Hansen may also face early pace pressure from the likes of Scatman, Heavy Breathing, Midnight Crooner, or even Howe Great, that compromise his ability to hold off his foes at the wire.

The conundrum, for me at least, is that once you get beyond Hansen there’s 5 to 10 other horses that could conceivably win. Howe Great looked stellar winning the Palm Beach Stakes and his turf form should transfer well to Keeneland’s polytrack. Dullahan was 2nd to Howe Great in the Palm Beach, but he’s was coming off a long layoff. He should improve in his 2nd race back and he’s 1 for 1 on Keeneland’s main track.

Pedigree handicappers will note that horses sired by Kitten’s Joy have fared well at Keeneland so 30-1 shots #2 Gung Ho and #7 Politicallycorrect cannot be completely ignored. Along the same lines, Scat Daddy has proven a potent sire in his early stud career as evidenced by Daddy Long Legs’ recent victory in the UAE Derby (on a synthetic track) and Daddy Nose Best’s wins in the El Camino Real (on a synthetic track) and the Sunland Derby. #13 Scatman is another by Scat Daddy; he has a win at Keeneland and may be dangerous despite a poor post draw.

The entry that most intrigues me is #3 Prospective. He’s consistently competitive and enters the race in fine form after a game win the Tampa Bay Derby. Like Hansen, he’s a perfect 2 for 2 on synthetic tracks, though his poorest finish came in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when finishing last in a race won by Hansen. At 10-1 on the morning line, his odds could approach 15-1 or higher by post time. Along with #6 Dullahan, he’ll be stalking the pace. Both have a puncher’s chance to upset Hansen, but Prospective should offer the most value if nothing else.

Without a doubt, the most likely winner is Hansen. However, at odds-on you can’t bet him to win and expect much money in return and it appears foolish to take a strong stand against him. Thankfully there is a bet known as the dime superfecta, perhaps the best wager in horse racing. My strategy will be to key Hansen on top; use Prospective, Dullahan, Howe Great, and Scatman in the 2nd position; use those same horses with Heavy Breathing, Gung Ho, Politicallycorrect, Midnight Crooner, Holy Candy, and Ever So Lucky in 3rd position; and the same 10 horses in 4th position. A 10 cent base bet will cost me $28.80, but a similar strategy paid off at $175 in Hansen’s odds on win in the Gotham as compared to a $54 payout on a $30 win bet. Oh yeah, I’ll make a small wager on Prospective to win and with Hansen in an exacta just in case he lands that right hook.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

The Arkansas Derby once again manages to draw a talented full field of eleven. In the gate Saturday will be Southwest and Rebel Stakes winner #5 SECRET CIRCLE (5/2), San Felipe Stakes winner #11 BODEMEISTER (9/5), Delta Jackpot winner #9 SABERCAT (15-1), Rebel Stakes runner up #7 OPTIMIZER (6-1) and the runner up of the Sunland Derby, #6 ISN’T HE CLEVER (6-1).

SECRET CIRCLE’s only blemish in six starts was a second place effort back in January in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. His wins in the Rebel and Southwest were a testament to how much of a fighter this horse is. Both were hard fought wins to the wire while visibly tiring. Whether or not he wants to go nine furlongs remains to be seen, but you have to like what he has accomplished on the racetrack so far.

The morning line favorite is BODEMEISTER, but I expect he and SECRET CIRCLE to vie for post time favoritism. He’s a lightly raced horse with only three starts, and at a short price, there are just too many questions for me. It looks like he’s going to be on the lead or pressing it which could leave him vulnerable. I find it a little interesting that Baffert ships him in here rather than staying at Santa Anita. Come summertime I think he will be a major player, but he lacks the seasoning that other contenders have in the race.

If you’re looking for alternates at a bit of a price, turn your attention to SABERCAT, OPTIMIZER, and ISN’T HE CLEVER. While SABERCAT had absolutely no excuse for his poor effort in the Rebel, it was his first start of the year and his connections (Asmussen/Nakatani) win at a 28% clip. OPTIMIZER and ISN’T HE CLEVER were both very game in defeat last time and will look to legitimatize those efforts to become major contenders.

Personally I think SECRET CIRCLE will get the dream trip. There is plenty of pace with BODEMEISTER and ISN’T HE CLEVER. SECRET CIRCLE can just draft in fourth or fifth place and pick them up in the stretch.

Good Luck!

You could say that the lack of 1 or 2 clear standouts is a sign of mediocrity. I respectfully disagree. I believe it reflects a depth of talent and quality we don’t often see and which may produce a truly special horse – a gem if you will. It should also produce a terrific betting race – and by good betting race, I mean the opportunity to win a lot of money for a relatively small wager (yes, the Dime Super is your friend).

To paraphrase Sam Spade, Mrs. Munday didn’t raise any children dippy enough to make guesses about possible Triple Crown winners (considering we haven’t had one in 33 years). However, it’s likely this year’s Derby will feature a breakout performance by a remarkable horse; and at remarkably good odds (and large exotic payouts)!

But which horse? That is the question isn’t it.

Maybe “the Dozen” will help . . .

(PS – don’t sleep on the “also receiving votes” bin as there a few in there that could make some noise this Saturday)

Special thanks to our fearless Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Crystal Conway

Race 8 — Cryptoclearance Stakes — 1 1/16 miles on dirt — post time of 5:08 CT

A listed stakes for $60K for older males. DENHAM may have trolling around in $5000 starter handicaps last year but he’s emerged as a player on the statebred stakes scene. I’ll forgive his last start at Turfway, as he’s one who loves dirt most and his only bad race came last fall in the Buck’s Boy when he was put on the shelf too long after a turf stakes. Like the long works for stamina and the trainer is quietly having a solid meet.

BIG LOOIE goes second off the layoff today for trainer C. Janks. Winner of the Buck’s Boy Stakes, a $125K stakes for statebreds two back over this same Hawthorne dirt, he cashed checks in many of his dirt races. His only win was in that stakes, however, but he is seven of nine in the money lifetime at Hawthorne.

GLEAM OF HOPE was last seen with a fourth in a listed stakes at Sam Houston and with minor awards in stakes at Fair Grounds that feed into the New Orleans Handicap. He’s got a second and two fourths in his dirt starts and you could make the case he’s not facing no one better than he was facing down south. With respect to figures, he’ll be a threat if he replicates his New Orleans races.

#4 DENHAM (6/1)

#7 BIG LOOIE (5/1)

#8 GLEAM OF HOPE (7/2)

Longshot: #6 TAPTOWNE (10/1) is one of two in here from Michael Reavis (the other, FREE FIGHTER, is better suited going much longer). It appears he doesn’t win too often. However his best starts have been dirt and he won the N2X allowance that serves as a side-door prep to this event. Didn’t disgrace himself going against fringe-level statebred stakes sprinters two back. Given the popularity of the rail-drawn horse, he could be easily ignored.

Race 9 – Grade 3 TVG Illinois Derby – 1 1/8 miles on dirt – post time of 5:45 p.m. CT

I’m not big on the favorite, CURRENCY SWAP, in this race for three year olds and I have a different pick. Check out the fine folks at Thorofan for the full preview.

Be sure to check out our twitter box on the far right side of the screen, as The Author will be live on scene from Hawthorne for tomorrow’s Illinois Derby. You might even see some additional picks there.

Good luck everyone.

Weather Outlook: mid 80s, sunny

Gulfstream Park Race 11– Grade I Florida Derby ($1 Million) – 1 1/8^th Miles – 5:40 (EDT) Post Time

Last year’s Derby favorite going into his final prep race was Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial. This year it’s #6 UNION RAGS (6/5) in the Florida Derby. This colt has been very impressive in his brief racing career thus far and may very well win this race, albeit at much less than his 6/5 morning line odds.

I’m here to offer alternatives and #8 EL PADRINO (2-1) is UNION RAGS’ biggest threat. There’s some backstory involving these horses having to do with jockey Javier Castellano. Castellano was UNION RAGS’ regular rider, but jumped off the mount earlier in the year for another Derby contender (Algorithms) who’s now off the Derby trail due to a minor injury. Both UNION RAGS and EL PADRINO looked tremendous in their last races and should take most of the wagering action.

It’s tough to have much confidence with the other contenders in this race. #2 NEWS PENDING (8-1) ran second to UNION RAGS in the Fountain of Youth, but he set a relatively soft pace and had nothing left when the real running started. #3 TAKE CHARGE INDY (5-1) is another possible contender. He showed ability as a two-year old, but Calvin Borel in the saddle and odds around 5-1 do not excite me.

I expect UNION RAGS and EL PADRINO will sit just off the pace and be head and head coming down the stretch. I’ll give EL PADRINO a slight advantage as Castellano will be looking to make up for his past mistake and EL PADRINO should offer slightly more wagering value to boot.

Good Luck!

Gulfstream Park Race 10 – Grade II Pan American Stakes ($150K) – 1 ½ Miles (Turf) – 5:35 (EDT) Post Time

Usually when thinking of turf racing at Gulfstream it’s about overflow fields and several also eligibles. Sadly the Pan American Stakes is the exception to the norm. The grade II race has only drawn a field of six. It can be further reduced to a match race between #1 NEWSDAD (9/5) and #2 SIMMARD (2-1) as they appear to outclass the rest of the field.

#3 HARRODS CREEK has not raced since December at Woodbine and trainer Bill Mott generally does not have his horses geared up first time off a layoff. A look back to last year off a similar layoff was his worst race of the year. This race appears to be a prep for another spot down the road.

#4 HAILSTONE (10-1) always tries, but never seems to get into the winners circle and the distance of 12 furlongs is another question. #6 CENTER DIVIDER (5-1) was beaten soundly by NEWSDAD and SIMMARD last time and a reversal of fortune is unlikely given the likely race dynamics. Looks like a toss up between NEWSDAD and SIMMARD; and personally, I like NEWSDAD to win.

Turfway Park Race 9 – Grade III Bourbonette Oaks ($100K) 1 Mile (Polytrack) – 5:12 (EDT) Post Time

The fillies will take to the track and try to bank some purse money toward the Kentucky Oaks. This race appears wide open with all the runners being lightly raced with numerous questions to answer. Todd Pletcher ships in #5 DANCING SOLO (4-1) and jockey Javier Castallano makes the trip to Kentucky with her. I like her in this spot because arguably her best race was last fall on Keeneland’s Polytrack. She hung in the stretch finishing third, but was beaten less than a length and had to travel farther than today’s race. Tough to get creative but I will take DANCING SOLO over the other logical contenders in #3 MORE THAN LOVE (9/5) and #4 IN LINGERIE (2-1). MORE THAN LOVE will be racing on a surface other than turf for the first time and IN LINGERIE has had some problems at the gate in both of her career starts.

Turfway Park Race 10 – Grade III Spiral Stakes ($500K) 1 1/8^th Miles (Polytrack) – 5:45 (EDT) Post Time

Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom started his run to the roses by winning this race last year. Back at it again this year is Graham Motion (trainer of Animal Kingdom) saddling #4 WENT THE DAY WELL (4-1). Even though he just broke his maiden three weeks ago, the horse has some ability including two 2^nd place finishes in Great Britain last fall. He’s run well on dirt and turf so we’ll see if he can handle the poly too. An interesting horse at a price is #1 RUSSIAN GREEK (10-1). He gets a huge rider change to Corey Nakatani and adds blinkers. RUSSIAN GREEK needs a solid pace up front to have a chance though, but #3 HEAVY BREATHING (3-1) and #12 HANDSOME MIKE (4-1) could provide it for him.

Sunday – Sunland Park Race 12 – Grade III Sunland Derby ($800K) – 1 1/8^th Miles – 7:45 (EDT) Post

Many may remember improbable, long shot Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird using this race as springboard in 2009. This year’s edition features a field of eight and some big time trainers shipping in Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Bob Baffert has two; Todd Pletcher and Steve Assmussen both have one. I like one that isn’t trained by them in #4 ISN’T HE CLEVER (4-1). He has perfect record over the track including a career high Beyer which is best of the group. Sunland generally favors speed and he has enough to be in the race early but does not need the lead to win. #1 CASTAWAY (2-1) won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn and should set the pace, but I’m not crazy that Baffert is running him here rather than in last week’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. #2 ENDER KNIEVEL (6-1) and #3 STIRRED UP (8-1) just broke their maidens and will need to improve off those races to have a chance. Finally, #6 DADDY NOSE BEST (3-1) has run on poly and turf, but is unproven over a fast dirt surface. At a short price I’ll leave him out.

Good Luck and follow us all weekend long on twitter @Wireplayers!

The biggest change is up top where CREATIVE CAUSE takes the honors despite UNION RAGS’ impressive performance in the Fountain of Youth. While each garnered four 1st place votes, it seems a few voters aren’t quite sold on ole UNION RAGS; especially our good friends in California. Is this the age old east coast vs. west coast bias?

I dunno, but I can’t recall a horse out of Dixie Union ever winning a race of any importance beyond 9 furlongs. There’s also money to be made capitalizing on the irrational exuberance of others; just ask any investor (e.g., gamblers who play the stock market). Stay tuned …

Special thanks to our friendly, dedicated, and knowledgeable Derby Dozen panel.
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Crystal Conway

Though it has a small field of 6, half the entrants in Sunday’s Palm Beach Stakes are out of the exceptional turf sire Kitten’s Joy. The race may also hold the winner of Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes (on April 14th) and a ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Team Valor and Graham Motion’s spectacular win in the 2011 Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom has them on everybody’s radar this year. It’s well deserved as they have another crop of promising 3 year old colts with State of Play; winner of last week’s John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, Lucky Chappy; heading to Dubai for the UAE Derby, and #1 HOWE GREAT; the 8/5 morning line favorite in Sunday’s Palm Beach Stakes.

Team Valor horses are typically very well-bred with solid turf pedigrees. Animal Kingdom could obviously handle dirt, but will HOWE GREAT?

Well, we’re getting ahead of ourselves as I’m not so sure Team Valor is even pointing him to the Derby. However, he would be a legitimate contender in the Blue Grass as it’s no secret turf horses do well on Keeneland’s polytrack. In fact, last year’s Blue Grass featured 3 horses coming out of the Palm Beach Stakes (the winner, Brilliant Speed, came out of another turf race, the Hallandale Stakes).

Another logical contender in the Palm Beach is #3 DULLAHAN (2-1), owned by Donegal Racing and trained by Dale Romans – the same connections of the talented turf runner Paddy O’ Prado. By the way, two years ago Paddy O’ Prado parlayed his 1st place finish in the 2010 Palm Beach Stakes into a 2nd in the Blue Grass before finishing 3rd in the Derby. He then went back on the grass and won 4 more graded stakes, to include the G. 1 Secretariat.

DULLAHAN hasn’t raced since his respectable 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race that has since produced 5 graded stakes winners: Hansen (G. 3 Gotham), Union Rags (G. 2 Fountain of Youth), Creative Cause (G. 2 San Felipe), Alpha (G. 3 Withers), Drill (G.2 San Vincente). A fairly amazing stat considering it’s only been just over 4 months since the Breeders’ Cup.

DULLAHAN will be a handful as will #5 COALPORT (3-1). By Kitten’s Joy, COALPORT has one win in four starts. He finished ahead of HOWE GREAT’s stable mate Lucky Chappy in the G. 3 Bourbon at age 2 before a disappointing, and troubled, 11th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. With HOWE GREAT and DULLAHAN figuring to get most of the attention at the windows, COALPORT, with Julien Leparoux riding, could get overlooked and go off higher than his 3-1 morning line odds.

Of course, turf races are highly dependent on pace and positioning and it looks like HOWE GREAT will get a comfortable and clean trip near the front along with #6 CSABA (6-1). They’ll both try to hold off DULLAHAN and COALPORT in the deep stretch.

So which will prevail: the BC Juvenile angle, the Team Valor/Graham Motion angle, or the Kitten’s Joy angle?

Well, Kitten’s Joy does have the numbers.

First things first, there’s two KY Derby prep Stakes (i.e., stakes for 3 year olds) on Saturday; the Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park.

Turfway Park

Race 10 – John Battaglia Memorial Stakes ($75K) – 8.5 furlongs  - 5:31 post  

With the scratch of #3 PHANTOM FURY, the Battaglia will only have five horses going to the gate. While #6 MR PRANKSTER is the slight 9/5 morning line favorite off a win in the WEBN Stakes, #4 STATE OF PLAY (2-1) catches my attention as he is from the 2011 Kentucky Derby winning connections of Team Valor and Graham Motion. The Battaglia is the local prep for the Spiral Stakes, the same race Animal Kingdom used to punch his Derby ticket. With only five betting interests and two short priced favorites, this may not be the best betting race to say the least.

Aqueduct

Race 10 – Grade 3 Gotham Stakes ($400K) – 8.5 furlongs – 5:02 post

Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes should offer better wagering opportunities, especially if you’re not buying Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner HANSEN (#12, 6/5) as a legitimate Derby contender. I’m not, which is why he’s not on my Road to the Roses stable (this has proven a tactical mistake as I don’t have a single Gotham entrant in my stable). However, HANSEN’s facing a drastically weaker field than he beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and there doesn’t appear to be any ‘Algorithms’ in this group.

I have no strong opinions on alternatives to HANSEN which means I probably won’t bet the race (ok, ok, I won’t bet “much” on the race). Intriguing possibilities for me are #1 MY ADONIS (5-1), #13 TIGER WALK (12-1) despite drawing a tough post, #5 MAAN (15-1), undefeated at 2 for 2 and stretching out, and long shot #2 FINNEGANS WAKE (20-1), trying dirt for the first time.

It’s worth noting that Aqueduct’s Saturday card also features the Grade II Top Flight Handicap and Grade III Tom Fool.

Race 5 – Grade 2 Top Flight Hdcp ($200K) – 8.5 furlongs – 2:42 post

The Top Flight features the return of #5 IT’S TRICKY (4/5) after finishing 2nd to Royal Delta in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic. If taking a short price after such a long layoff brings you pause, #2 DELIGHTFUL MARY (4-1) appears to be in good form. It’s another race with only 5 betting interests so this might be a good one to just watch.

Race 9 – Grade 3 Tom Fool Hdcp ($200K) – 6 furlongs – 4:34 post

The Tom Fool has Breeders’ Cup Mile winner CALEB’S POSSE (#6, 9/5) returning to the track. He’s a terrific racehorse and powerful closer, but probably won’t get a great pace to chase down and six furlongs may be a tad short. This race may be in CALIBRACHOA’s (#5, 2-1) wheelhouse. #4 EMCEE (5/2) is a lightly raced 4 year old facing stakes company for the first time, but he’s undefeated, gets a bit of weight break, and may have more upside and value.

Gulfstream Park

Race 3 – $75K AOC – 1 and 1/8 miles – 2:01 post

Saturday’s 3rd and 4th races at Gulfstream Park could be interesting for Derby watchers. In the 3rd, #5 HEAVY BREATHING (8/5) is the most promising Derby prospect due to winning his first race in impressive fashion and being sired by Giant’s Causeway. His pedigree indicates he won’t have a problem getting the Derby distance, but the lack of seasoning (his 1st and only race was on 8 Feb) is a concern.

Race 4 – $57K MSW – 8.5 furlongs – 2:29 post

In the 4th race Team Valor and Graham Motion have another contender in #1 WENT THE DAY WELL (5/2) as does Nick Zito with #8 TIZ YANKEE (3-1). An intriguing long shot is #4 STREET TALK’N (12-1). He has a solid pedigree (perhaps better suited to turf though), but was beaten a combined 40 lengths in his first two races. Getting blinkers first time may wake him up enough to crash the board, or even threaten to win, at a price.

Race 7 – $80K AOC – 1 mile – 3:53 post

And speaking of the KY Derby, the 7th race has two 2011 Derby starters returning to the track for the 1st time since last summer: #2 PANTS ON FIRE (3-1) and #3 DIALED IN (2-1). If the 2012 debuts of Animal Kingdom and Nehro were any indication, these two may put on quite a show.

Race 10 – Grade III Canadian Turf Stakes ($150K) – 1 mile  - 5:17 post

Gulfstream’s 10th race is headlined by the formidable #8 LITTLE MIKE (2-1). Given his for 5 for 6 record at Gulfstream, and 6 for 7 wins at the distance, the 2-1 morning line may be an overlay. I will note that despite #4 DATA LINK (6-1) having never won a stakes race, he’s a perfect 4 for 4 on firm turf and might, just might, surprise.

Santa Anita

Race 11 – Grade 1 Santa Anita Hdcp ($750K) – 1 and 1/4 miles – 8:35 pm (eastern)

Santa Anita’s “Big Cap” seems ripe for an upset. #2 ULTIMATE EAGLE (5/2) enters after after a 7 length romp in the G.2 Strub on 4 Feb, however, he’s unraced at the mile and a quarter distance.  #9 SETSUKO (4-1) lost last year’s eventful Santa Anita Handicap to Game On Dude by a nose, but he’s proven to like 10 furlongs and may offer better value. I wouldn’t stop there though, I may just play the Pick 6 (with a $63K carryover), which figures to have some fairly predictable legs, and go deep in the Big Cap hoping for a bomb.

So, for shits and grins, here’s my $2 Pick 6 ticket for roughly $100 – 9/2/4,10,11/5,7/1/2,3,4,3,7,9,10,12 - Bombs away!

Derby Future Wager Pool #2

And lastly, this weekend is Pool #2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. After an eye catching performance in the Fountain of Youth, I figure UNION RAGS (4-1) will take lots of dough and leave the field (aka, “all others”) north of 3-1 (good odds in my opinion). The pool closes 6pm eastern on Sunday so it’s worth checking the odds to see if there’s any enticing prices.

Good luck!

After reading this list you may notice two things: 1) Bob Baffert is not very well represented (or is he?). 2) There are a couple of dudes (and I know who they are) who really like TAKE CHARGE INDY. What other nuggets of wisdom are hidden within? God only knows …

Special thanks to our tireless Derby Dozen panel (and a special shout out to new panelist Crystal!). Without these fine folks, following the Derby preps would be only half as fun.
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Crystal Conway

It’s that time of year again; time to navigate down the Road to the Roses. The road is long, winding, and like the game of LIFE, full of sudden twists and turns (left handed turns). Many of you may already have a stable, which is good because we have plenty of stalls. It’s free and easy to play – pick 15 horses, two jocks and two trainers to build your stable at: http://www.roadtotheroses.com/

Just use the codes below on the join a league tab of the league manager section and you will be driving down the WirePlayers Road to Destiny with us.

League Name: WirePlayers Road to Destiny

League Identifier: 2350287869

Activation Code: 3582709766

Grand Prize: Our league champ will receive an official WirePlayers T-shirt of their choice from our trendy Track Threads collection (style & size subject to availability).

Disclaimer:

Do not be alarmed if while on the Road to Destiny you pass Derek listening to Shania Twain. We assure you, this is completely normal.

Do however be aware of the “Curse of Ramon.” Like McDonalds, billions have been served.

All the best,

Dylan (League Manager)