At this point, no one knows which horse will win the Derby and it doesn’t really matter. What’s important is forming your own opinion about which horses might win the Derby and identifying those that are maturing and peaking at the right time. By following the Derby Preps closely you’ll have insights you can turn into cold hard cash come May 5th.

Follow the Derby preps using the handy dandy schedule on our KY Derby page and check in on our Derby Dozen list (we’ll vote every three weeks) to see if our opinions line up with yours. Putting the time in now may payoff later.

Special thanks to our expert Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz

Ok, ok, enough with my bastardization of the rifleman’s creed. At WirePlayers we’re kicking off our annual Kentucky Derby prep race coverage and here’s a handy schedule of key races. It will be updated as the Derby prep season progresses.

And stay tunned because next week we’ll debut this year’s WirePlayers Derby Dozen – guaranteed to satisfy and mystify.

2012 KY Derby & Triple Crown Prep Race Schedule

Race 4: Louisiana Legacy S. – LA Bred, 1 Mile – 2:44 Post Time (central)

This race appears wide open with morning line favorite #2 JOE’S NO SAINT (3-1) looking rather vulnerable. He can win, but not any of his prior efforts grab my attention. My top choice is #5 PORTO POTTEA (15-1). This one comes off a win in his first time going two turns and first time at Delta Downs. He comes up for top connections in trainer Scott Gelmer and rider Shaun Bridgmohan and has a serious chance at a generous price. #10 VALIDFROMTHEGITGO (10-1) is one that might have bounced in the last race after two very encouraging efforts and appears to be working well in the morning, must use.

Race 5: Delta Mile S. – 1 Mile – Post Time 3:13 (central)

The Delta Mile is an interesting race that appears to be between two horses; #4 HOORAYFORHOLLYWOOD (4-1) and #6 GLENWOOD CANYON (2-1). I’ll also make a case for last year’s Delta Jackpot runner-up, #2 DECISIVE MOMENT (7/2). His form may be questionable coming into the race, but horses that have run well on this track before always tend to show up.  Most likely #4 HOORAYFORHOLLYWOOD will look to take them wire to wire, and even though #6 GLENWOOD CANYON turns around quickly, he has run well on short rest before and might be in the perfect spot.

Race 6: Delta Princess S. – 1 Mile – 3:43 Post Time (central)

Full field set in the Delta Princess and the first question you have to ask is can favorite #5 CANDREA (5/2) rebound from her disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Cup juvenile fillies. Personally, I’m going to play against her, as the quick turnaround doesn’t appease me. #2 NOW I KNOW (9/2) will put her perfect four for four record on the line trying to go a route of ground for the first time. She has gotten better in each of her races and gets the class test today. The My Trusty Cat Stakes winner #7 CITIZEN ADVOCATE (7/2) isn’t without a shot either as she won that race rather convincingly and is proven over the surface.

Race 7: Delta Jackpot S. – 1 & 1/16^th Miles – 4:15 Post Time (central)

The big dance is the last one of the sequence and features a full field trying to get a jumpstart on a bid for the Kentucky Derby next spring. Bob Baffert ships in #6 DRILL (2-1) who didn’t run a step in the Breeders’ Cup juvenile. This horse has been documented as being difficult to train and again with the short price and turnaround time between races I’m playing against emphatically. #5 MY ADONIS (4-1) quickly drew off when asked in his prep for this race and his stalker running style should be ideal as there appears to be some pace to his inside. He looks to be sitting in the perfect spot. Also on the ticket will be #3 TIZ MOE (15-1), he was a clear 2^nd best last time, but has a strong work since. Also using #8 SABERCAT (8-1) who beat #5 MY ADONIS two back and has connections that win a lot of races at Delta Downs (Steve Asmussen and Gerard Melancon).

Advance Weather: Partly Sunny, 70s

Good Luck!

Dylan’s Pick 4 Ticket – $0.50 = $45

Leg 1: 2,5,6,9,10

Leg 2: 2,4,6

Leg 3: 2,7

Leg 4: 3,5,8

This was a roller coaster Kentucky Derby prep season capped by last Saturday’s impressive win by ANIMAL KINGDOM. I was on hand for all the festivities with my buddies Dave, Doug, and WirePlayers contributer Derek Brown. Please check out the WirePlayers Facebook page and Flickr photostream to see our pics. The Flickr pics are from my cell phone (which died after the 3rd race on Saturday) but Derek took some nice shots.

Next stop for ANIMAL KINGDOM is bucolic north Baltimore (aka “Charm City”) for the Preakness. I’ll be back on the premises with Dave and Doug drinking Black Eyed Susans and crafting winning Pick 4 tickets. If you find yourself at Pimlico next weekend, look us up.

Lastly, after a two-week hiatus due to Derby chaos, the Solar System of Handicapping returns. Our community race is Belmont Park’s G2 Peter Pan Stakes. Watch closely as a few of these horses will likely race in the Belmont Stakes four weeks from now. Good luck everyone!

It looks like DIALED IN will take most of the money as arguably the most consistent performer of the bunch and he gets the final #1 ranking in our poll (which we understand is highly valued among all the Derby connections). However, we’re a deeply divided group as 7 of the 20 starters received 1st place votes. And then there’s DECISIVE MOMENT who’s 50-1 on the morning line, but sneaks into the Dozen by virtue of TOBY’s withdraw. Can he sneak into the winner’s circle. Well, I know at least one guy who thinks so!

Special thanks to our tireless Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Brian from Railrunner
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
Jessica Paquette
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Dylan Jarmulowicz

(Dialed In, highlighted in white, racing much closer to the lead than he likes.)

This race served as a useful tighter for the Florida Derby and what was most encouraging was that, despite a slight hiccup at the top of the stretch (he struggles to change leads and attempts to slighty bare towards the inner rail yet again) he continues to mature. He has a valid excuse for not winning, the pace (24:4, 49:2, 1:13.8) was much too slow for him to close into. He wants to be thirteen lengths out a quarter mile into the race, not three. Let’s not forget Street Sense in 2007 – he had no trouble with nineteen other competitors behind a fast pace at the Derby, but struggled in short fielded paceless races like the Travers and Kentucky Cup Classic. Factor in that this was all along just a prep and this race becomes a complete toss.

Equibase chart

(Losing the gallop out) 

KY Derby Graded Stakes Earnings (25 Apr 2011)

KY Derby Graded Stakes Earnings (17 Apr 2011)

Race 6 – Shakertown Stakes (G3) – 5 1/2F (Turf)

#9 CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE (2-1) is as close to a free square as you’ll get all day, so it doesn’t hurt to try and single him in the sequence.  If he doesn’t come through, there’s always the pick 4 to regroup.  The only knock against him in this spot is his record at Keeneland – one win in four starts.  So as a safety I’ll include an up and comer from the Todd Pletcher barn in #7 STRATFORD HILL (6-1). He’s won his last three since moving to turf sprints, and, while getting the acid test on Saturday, fits well with this group.

Race 7 – Commonwealth Stakes (G2) – 7F

Another potential free square is #2 WISE DAN (7/5). He ran incredibly well to win the Phoenix stakes over the Keeneland surface off a similar layoff in October. Trainer Charles Lopresti wins at nearly 30 percent with his horses, and that figure moves up to 36 percent with horses off layoffs of 90 days or more.  His main dangers come from #4 COOL BULLET (5-1), a horse who has run respectably over synthetics, and #5 TAQARUB, who tends to run a big race when least expected.  Since I’ll be spreading later, I’ll single WISE DAN on my main ticket.

Race 8 – Jenny Wiley Stakes (G2) – 8 1/2F (Turf)

I’ve been a big fan of #2 NEVER RETREAT (10-1) all year, and love her chances in this spot. Her closing style fits the Keeneland turf course perfectly, and she’s never been off the board in three races at the distance. The fact that Julian Leparoux jumps off her to ride #4 ZAGORA (3-1) is an interesting move, and you can never toss a Chad Brown trained horse on turf. With excellent form in Europe and top class lines in two U.S. races, she’s very live. I’ll also include a pair of horses with dangerous turf connections and solid form in #8 FANTASIA (5-1) for Jonathan Sheppard and Rosie Napravnik and #11 GYPSY’SWARNING for Graham Motion and Joel Rosario.

Race 9 – Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) – 9 Furlongs

The past performances for this race have been added to the Wikipedia entry of tough betting races.  No one would fault you for hitting the all button, but I’m going to try and pare it down for my ticket. My two top picks also happen to be neighbors in the starting gate in #11 CRIMSON CHINA (10-1) and #12 QUEEN’SPLATEKITTEN (12-1).  CRIMSON CHINA was the favorite in the Rushaway Stakes, and ran well after breaking poorly to finish second. He’s been very highly regarded by the connections and has a win over polytrack in Europe at the distance.  QUEEN’SPLATEKITTEN has a strong late kick and broke his maiden at the distance over the Woodbine polytrack. Even though I have mixed feelings about him, I’ll also add morning line favorite #3 SANTIVA, who gets a big rider switch to Julian Leparoux, along with #5 BRILLIANT SPEED, who also gets a significant rider upgrade to Joel Rosario.

Race 10 – Allowance N3X – 1 Mile (Turf)

Lots to like about both Roger Attfield entries #4 NO EXPLAINING (4-1) and #6 PERFECT SHIRL (7/2) in this race.  Both are working well for their returns off a six month layoffs and dropping down from stakes company. I’m not too alarmed by the lack of published works from #10 FUGITIVE ANGEL, who I think is also very live off the layoff and a winner last fall over the Keeneland turf course. The longshot that intrigues me a bit if she doesn’t scratch, but won’t be on my ticket, is #3 REMIT (8-1) from the Steve Asmussen barn.  The fact that Steve ships her to Keeneland, rather than stay at Oaklawn where she’s been working makes me think he’s well intended with this Tapit filly on the grass.

My $.50 Pick 5 Ticket

Leg 1: 7,9

Leg 2: 2

Leg 3: 2,4,8,11

Leg 4: 3,5,11,12

Leg 5: 4,6,10

Total cost: $48

Best of luck to everyone playing along.  Talk to me on Twitter and let me know who you like.

This week’s Solar System of Handicapping takes us to beautiful Keeneland Race Course for the Blue Grass Stakes. Unfortunately, it’s going to be a rainy, gray day. Anyone here good at betting wet poly?