Saturday’s Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse is one of the last major prep races prior to the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Despite its Grade I status, few winners of the Blue Grass have gone on to actually win the Kentucky Derby (the most recent was Strike The Gold in 1991!). Since Keeneland installed its synthetic surface (Polytrack) after the 2006 spring meet the Blue Grass has produced a series of long shot winners with strong turf pedigrees yet little chance of winning the Derby. Prior to 2007 wasn’t much better as Keeneland’s dirt track tended to favor one-dimensional speed horses.

With two-year old Juvenile Champion Hansen entered along with 12 mostly capable challengers this year’s Blue Grass figures to have a much greater impact on the Derby outcome.

Keeneland Race 11 – G.1 Blue Grass Stakes ($750K) – 1 and 1/8 Miles  – 6:18 Post

PP

1       HEAVY BREATHING  (12-1)

2      GUNG HO  (30-1)

3       PROSPECTIVE  (10-1)

4       HANSEN (6/5)

5       RUSSIAN GREEK  (50-1)

6       DULLAHAN  (6-1)

7       POLITICALLYCORRECT (30-1)

8      MIDNIGHT CROONER (15-1)

9       HOLY CANDY (30-1)

10     HOWE GREAT (6-1)

11      EVER SO LUCKY (12-1)

12     HERO OF ORDER (12-1)

13     SCATMAN (12-1)

#4 Hansen’s the deserving 6/5 morning line favorite and could go off at less than even money. It’s hard to find fault with his performances to date and he’s a perfect 2 or 2 on polytrack. In truth, we simply don’t know how good Hansen really is or can be in the future. He’s never raced 9 furlongs before and the Blue Grass field features better horses than those he manhandled at Aqueduct in the Gotham Stakes. Hansen may also face early pace pressure from the likes of Scatman, Heavy Breathing, Midnight Crooner, or even Howe Great, that compromise his ability to hold off his foes at the wire.

The conundrum, for me at least, is that once you get beyond Hansen there’s 5 to 10 other horses that could conceivably win. Howe Great looked stellar winning the Palm Beach Stakes and his turf form should transfer well to Keeneland’s polytrack. Dullahan was 2nd to Howe Great in the Palm Beach, but he’s was coming off a long layoff. He should improve in his 2nd race back and he’s 1 for 1 on Keeneland’s main track.

Pedigree handicappers will note that horses sired by Kitten’s Joy have fared well at Keeneland so 30-1 shots #2 Gung Ho and #7 Politicallycorrect cannot be completely ignored. Along the same lines, Scat Daddy has proven a potent sire in his early stud career as evidenced by Daddy Long Legs’ recent victory in the UAE Derby (on a synthetic track) and Daddy Nose Best’s wins in the El Camino Real (on a synthetic track) and the Sunland Derby. #13 Scatman is another by Scat Daddy; he has a win at Keeneland and may be dangerous despite a poor post draw.

The entry that most intrigues me is #3 Prospective. He’s consistently competitive and enters the race in fine form after a game win the Tampa Bay Derby. Like Hansen, he’s a perfect 2 for 2 on synthetic tracks, though his poorest finish came in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when finishing last in a race won by Hansen. At 10-1 on the morning line, his odds could approach 15-1 or higher by post time. Along with #6 Dullahan, he’ll be stalking the pace. Both have a puncher’s chance to upset Hansen, but Prospective should offer the most value if nothing else.

Without a doubt, the most likely winner is Hansen. However, at odds-on you can’t bet him to win and expect much money in return and it appears foolish to take a strong stand against him. Thankfully there is a bet known as the dime superfecta, perhaps the best wager in horse racing. My strategy will be to key Hansen on top; use Prospective, Dullahan, Howe Great, and Scatman in the 2nd position; use those same horses with Heavy Breathing, Gung Ho, Politicallycorrect, Midnight Crooner, Holy Candy, and Ever So Lucky in 3rd position; and the same 10 horses in 4th position. A 10 cent base bet will cost me $28.80, but a similar strategy paid off at $175 in Hansen’s odds on win in the Gotham as compared to a $54 payout on a $30 win bet. Oh yeah, I’ll make a small wager on Prospective to win and with Hansen in an exacta just in case he lands that right hook.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

The Arkansas Derby once again manages to draw a talented full field of eleven. In the gate Saturday will be Southwest and Rebel Stakes winner #5 SECRET CIRCLE (5/2), San Felipe Stakes winner #11 BODEMEISTER (9/5), Delta Jackpot winner #9 SABERCAT (15-1), Rebel Stakes runner up #7 OPTIMIZER (6-1) and the runner up of the Sunland Derby, #6 ISN’T HE CLEVER (6-1).

SECRET CIRCLE’s only blemish in six starts was a second place effort back in January in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. His wins in the Rebel and Southwest were a testament to how much of a fighter this horse is. Both were hard fought wins to the wire while visibly tiring. Whether or not he wants to go nine furlongs remains to be seen, but you have to like what he has accomplished on the racetrack so far.

The morning line favorite is BODEMEISTER, but I expect he and SECRET CIRCLE to vie for post time favoritism. He’s a lightly raced horse with only three starts, and at a short price, there are just too many questions for me. It looks like he’s going to be on the lead or pressing it which could leave him vulnerable. I find it a little interesting that Baffert ships him in here rather than staying at Santa Anita. Come summertime I think he will be a major player, but he lacks the seasoning that other contenders have in the race.

If you’re looking for alternates at a bit of a price, turn your attention to SABERCAT, OPTIMIZER, and ISN’T HE CLEVER. While SABERCAT had absolutely no excuse for his poor effort in the Rebel, it was his first start of the year and his connections (Asmussen/Nakatani) win at a 28% clip. OPTIMIZER and ISN’T HE CLEVER were both very game in defeat last time and will look to legitimatize those efforts to become major contenders.

Personally I think SECRET CIRCLE will get the dream trip. There is plenty of pace with BODEMEISTER and ISN’T HE CLEVER. SECRET CIRCLE can just draft in fourth or fifth place and pick them up in the stretch.

Good Luck!

Race 8 — Cryptoclearance Stakes — 1 1/16 miles on dirt — post time of 5:08 CT

A listed stakes for $60K for older males. DENHAM may have trolling around in $5000 starter handicaps last year but he’s emerged as a player on the statebred stakes scene. I’ll forgive his last start at Turfway, as he’s one who loves dirt most and his only bad race came last fall in the Buck’s Boy when he was put on the shelf too long after a turf stakes. Like the long works for stamina and the trainer is quietly having a solid meet.

BIG LOOIE goes second off the layoff today for trainer C. Janks. Winner of the Buck’s Boy Stakes, a $125K stakes for statebreds two back over this same Hawthorne dirt, he cashed checks in many of his dirt races. His only win was in that stakes, however, but he is seven of nine in the money lifetime at Hawthorne.

GLEAM OF HOPE was last seen with a fourth in a listed stakes at Sam Houston and with minor awards in stakes at Fair Grounds that feed into the New Orleans Handicap. He’s got a second and two fourths in his dirt starts and you could make the case he’s not facing no one better than he was facing down south. With respect to figures, he’ll be a threat if he replicates his New Orleans races.

#4 DENHAM (6/1)

#7 BIG LOOIE (5/1)

#8 GLEAM OF HOPE (7/2)

Longshot: #6 TAPTOWNE (10/1) is one of two in here from Michael Reavis (the other, FREE FIGHTER, is better suited going much longer). It appears he doesn’t win too often. However his best starts have been dirt and he won the N2X allowance that serves as a side-door prep to this event. Didn’t disgrace himself going against fringe-level statebred stakes sprinters two back. Given the popularity of the rail-drawn horse, he could be easily ignored.

Race 9 – Grade 3 TVG Illinois Derby – 1 1/8 miles on dirt – post time of 5:45 p.m. CT

I’m not big on the favorite, CURRENCY SWAP, in this race for three year olds and I have a different pick. Check out the fine folks at Thorofan for the full preview.

Be sure to check out our twitter box on the far right side of the screen, as The Author will be live on scene from Hawthorne for tomorrow’s Illinois Derby. You might even see some additional picks there.

Good luck everyone.

Weather Outlook: mid 80s, sunny

Gulfstream Park Race 11– Grade I Florida Derby ($1 Million) – 1 1/8^th Miles – 5:40 (EDT) Post Time

Last year’s Derby favorite going into his final prep race was Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial. This year it’s #6 UNION RAGS (6/5) in the Florida Derby. This colt has been very impressive in his brief racing career thus far and may very well win this race, albeit at much less than his 6/5 morning line odds.

I’m here to offer alternatives and #8 EL PADRINO (2-1) is UNION RAGS’ biggest threat. There’s some backstory involving these horses having to do with jockey Javier Castellano. Castellano was UNION RAGS’ regular rider, but jumped off the mount earlier in the year for another Derby contender (Algorithms) who’s now off the Derby trail due to a minor injury. Both UNION RAGS and EL PADRINO looked tremendous in their last races and should take most of the wagering action.

It’s tough to have much confidence with the other contenders in this race. #2 NEWS PENDING (8-1) ran second to UNION RAGS in the Fountain of Youth, but he set a relatively soft pace and had nothing left when the real running started. #3 TAKE CHARGE INDY (5-1) is another possible contender. He showed ability as a two-year old, but Calvin Borel in the saddle and odds around 5-1 do not excite me.

I expect UNION RAGS and EL PADRINO will sit just off the pace and be head and head coming down the stretch. I’ll give EL PADRINO a slight advantage as Castellano will be looking to make up for his past mistake and EL PADRINO should offer slightly more wagering value to boot.

Good Luck!

Gulfstream Park Race 10 – Grade II Pan American Stakes ($150K) – 1 ½ Miles (Turf) – 5:35 (EDT) Post Time

Usually when thinking of turf racing at Gulfstream it’s about overflow fields and several also eligibles. Sadly the Pan American Stakes is the exception to the norm. The grade II race has only drawn a field of six. It can be further reduced to a match race between #1 NEWSDAD (9/5) and #2 SIMMARD (2-1) as they appear to outclass the rest of the field.

#3 HARRODS CREEK has not raced since December at Woodbine and trainer Bill Mott generally does not have his horses geared up first time off a layoff. A look back to last year off a similar layoff was his worst race of the year. This race appears to be a prep for another spot down the road.

#4 HAILSTONE (10-1) always tries, but never seems to get into the winners circle and the distance of 12 furlongs is another question. #6 CENTER DIVIDER (5-1) was beaten soundly by NEWSDAD and SIMMARD last time and a reversal of fortune is unlikely given the likely race dynamics. Looks like a toss up between NEWSDAD and SIMMARD; and personally, I like NEWSDAD to win.

Turfway Park Race 9 – Grade III Bourbonette Oaks ($100K) 1 Mile (Polytrack) – 5:12 (EDT) Post Time

The fillies will take to the track and try to bank some purse money toward the Kentucky Oaks. This race appears wide open with all the runners being lightly raced with numerous questions to answer. Todd Pletcher ships in #5 DANCING SOLO (4-1) and jockey Javier Castallano makes the trip to Kentucky with her. I like her in this spot because arguably her best race was last fall on Keeneland’s Polytrack. She hung in the stretch finishing third, but was beaten less than a length and had to travel farther than today’s race. Tough to get creative but I will take DANCING SOLO over the other logical contenders in #3 MORE THAN LOVE (9/5) and #4 IN LINGERIE (2-1). MORE THAN LOVE will be racing on a surface other than turf for the first time and IN LINGERIE has had some problems at the gate in both of her career starts.

Turfway Park Race 10 – Grade III Spiral Stakes ($500K) 1 1/8^th Miles (Polytrack) – 5:45 (EDT) Post Time

Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom started his run to the roses by winning this race last year. Back at it again this year is Graham Motion (trainer of Animal Kingdom) saddling #4 WENT THE DAY WELL (4-1). Even though he just broke his maiden three weeks ago, the horse has some ability including two 2^nd place finishes in Great Britain last fall. He’s run well on dirt and turf so we’ll see if he can handle the poly too. An interesting horse at a price is #1 RUSSIAN GREEK (10-1). He gets a huge rider change to Corey Nakatani and adds blinkers. RUSSIAN GREEK needs a solid pace up front to have a chance though, but #3 HEAVY BREATHING (3-1) and #12 HANDSOME MIKE (4-1) could provide it for him.

Sunday – Sunland Park Race 12 – Grade III Sunland Derby ($800K) – 1 1/8^th Miles – 7:45 (EDT) Post

Many may remember improbable, long shot Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird using this race as springboard in 2009. This year’s edition features a field of eight and some big time trainers shipping in Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Bob Baffert has two; Todd Pletcher and Steve Assmussen both have one. I like one that isn’t trained by them in #4 ISN’T HE CLEVER (4-1). He has perfect record over the track including a career high Beyer which is best of the group. Sunland generally favors speed and he has enough to be in the race early but does not need the lead to win. #1 CASTAWAY (2-1) won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn and should set the pace, but I’m not crazy that Baffert is running him here rather than in last week’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. #2 ENDER KNIEVEL (6-1) and #3 STIRRED UP (8-1) just broke their maidens and will need to improve off those races to have a chance. Finally, #6 DADDY NOSE BEST (3-1) has run on poly and turf, but is unproven over a fast dirt surface. At a short price I’ll leave him out.

Good Luck and follow us all weekend long on twitter @Wireplayers!

Though it has a small field of 6, half the entrants in Sunday’s Palm Beach Stakes are out of the exceptional turf sire Kitten’s Joy. The race may also hold the winner of Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes (on April 14th) and a ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Team Valor and Graham Motion’s spectacular win in the 2011 Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom has them on everybody’s radar this year. It’s well deserved as they have another crop of promising 3 year old colts with State of Play; winner of last week’s John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, Lucky Chappy; heading to Dubai for the UAE Derby, and #1 HOWE GREAT; the 8/5 morning line favorite in Sunday’s Palm Beach Stakes.

Team Valor horses are typically very well-bred with solid turf pedigrees. Animal Kingdom could obviously handle dirt, but will HOWE GREAT?

Well, we’re getting ahead of ourselves as I’m not so sure Team Valor is even pointing him to the Derby. However, he would be a legitimate contender in the Blue Grass as it’s no secret turf horses do well on Keeneland’s polytrack. In fact, last year’s Blue Grass featured 3 horses coming out of the Palm Beach Stakes (the winner, Brilliant Speed, came out of another turf race, the Hallandale Stakes).

Another logical contender in the Palm Beach is #3 DULLAHAN (2-1), owned by Donegal Racing and trained by Dale Romans – the same connections of the talented turf runner Paddy O’ Prado. By the way, two years ago Paddy O’ Prado parlayed his 1st place finish in the 2010 Palm Beach Stakes into a 2nd in the Blue Grass before finishing 3rd in the Derby. He then went back on the grass and won 4 more graded stakes, to include the G. 1 Secretariat.

DULLAHAN hasn’t raced since his respectable 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race that has since produced 5 graded stakes winners: Hansen (G. 3 Gotham), Union Rags (G. 2 Fountain of Youth), Creative Cause (G. 2 San Felipe), Alpha (G. 3 Withers), Drill (G.2 San Vincente). A fairly amazing stat considering it’s only been just over 4 months since the Breeders’ Cup.

DULLAHAN will be a handful as will #5 COALPORT (3-1). By Kitten’s Joy, COALPORT has one win in four starts. He finished ahead of HOWE GREAT’s stable mate Lucky Chappy in the G. 3 Bourbon at age 2 before a disappointing, and troubled, 11th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. With HOWE GREAT and DULLAHAN figuring to get most of the attention at the windows, COALPORT, with Julien Leparoux riding, could get overlooked and go off higher than his 3-1 morning line odds.

Of course, turf races are highly dependent on pace and positioning and it looks like HOWE GREAT will get a comfortable and clean trip near the front along with #6 CSABA (6-1). They’ll both try to hold off DULLAHAN and COALPORT in the deep stretch.

So which will prevail: the BC Juvenile angle, the Team Valor/Graham Motion angle, or the Kitten’s Joy angle?

Well, Kitten’s Joy does have the numbers.

First things first, there’s two KY Derby prep Stakes (i.e., stakes for 3 year olds) on Saturday; the Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park.

Turfway Park

Race 10 – John Battaglia Memorial Stakes ($75K) – 8.5 furlongs  - 5:31 post  

With the scratch of #3 PHANTOM FURY, the Battaglia will only have five horses going to the gate. While #6 MR PRANKSTER is the slight 9/5 morning line favorite off a win in the WEBN Stakes, #4 STATE OF PLAY (2-1) catches my attention as he is from the 2011 Kentucky Derby winning connections of Team Valor and Graham Motion. The Battaglia is the local prep for the Spiral Stakes, the same race Animal Kingdom used to punch his Derby ticket. With only five betting interests and two short priced favorites, this may not be the best betting race to say the least.

Aqueduct

Race 10 – Grade 3 Gotham Stakes ($400K) – 8.5 furlongs – 5:02 post

Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes should offer better wagering opportunities, especially if you’re not buying Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner HANSEN (#12, 6/5) as a legitimate Derby contender. I’m not, which is why he’s not on my Road to the Roses stable (this has proven a tactical mistake as I don’t have a single Gotham entrant in my stable). However, HANSEN’s facing a drastically weaker field than he beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and there doesn’t appear to be any ‘Algorithms’ in this group.

I have no strong opinions on alternatives to HANSEN which means I probably won’t bet the race (ok, ok, I won’t bet “much” on the race). Intriguing possibilities for me are #1 MY ADONIS (5-1), #13 TIGER WALK (12-1) despite drawing a tough post, #5 MAAN (15-1), undefeated at 2 for 2 and stretching out, and long shot #2 FINNEGANS WAKE (20-1), trying dirt for the first time.

It’s worth noting that Aqueduct’s Saturday card also features the Grade II Top Flight Handicap and Grade III Tom Fool.

Race 5 – Grade 2 Top Flight Hdcp ($200K) – 8.5 furlongs – 2:42 post

The Top Flight features the return of #5 IT’S TRICKY (4/5) after finishing 2nd to Royal Delta in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic. If taking a short price after such a long layoff brings you pause, #2 DELIGHTFUL MARY (4-1) appears to be in good form. It’s another race with only 5 betting interests so this might be a good one to just watch.

Race 9 – Grade 3 Tom Fool Hdcp ($200K) – 6 furlongs – 4:34 post

The Tom Fool has Breeders’ Cup Mile winner CALEB’S POSSE (#6, 9/5) returning to the track. He’s a terrific racehorse and powerful closer, but probably won’t get a great pace to chase down and six furlongs may be a tad short. This race may be in CALIBRACHOA’s (#5, 2-1) wheelhouse. #4 EMCEE (5/2) is a lightly raced 4 year old facing stakes company for the first time, but he’s undefeated, gets a bit of weight break, and may have more upside and value.

Gulfstream Park

Race 3 – $75K AOC – 1 and 1/8 miles – 2:01 post

Saturday’s 3rd and 4th races at Gulfstream Park could be interesting for Derby watchers. In the 3rd, #5 HEAVY BREATHING (8/5) is the most promising Derby prospect due to winning his first race in impressive fashion and being sired by Giant’s Causeway. His pedigree indicates he won’t have a problem getting the Derby distance, but the lack of seasoning (his 1st and only race was on 8 Feb) is a concern.

Race 4 – $57K MSW – 8.5 furlongs – 2:29 post

In the 4th race Team Valor and Graham Motion have another contender in #1 WENT THE DAY WELL (5/2) as does Nick Zito with #8 TIZ YANKEE (3-1). An intriguing long shot is #4 STREET TALK’N (12-1). He has a solid pedigree (perhaps better suited to turf though), but was beaten a combined 40 lengths in his first two races. Getting blinkers first time may wake him up enough to crash the board, or even threaten to win, at a price.

Race 7 – $80K AOC – 1 mile – 3:53 post

And speaking of the KY Derby, the 7th race has two 2011 Derby starters returning to the track for the 1st time since last summer: #2 PANTS ON FIRE (3-1) and #3 DIALED IN (2-1). If the 2012 debuts of Animal Kingdom and Nehro were any indication, these two may put on quite a show.

Race 10 – Grade III Canadian Turf Stakes ($150K) – 1 mile  - 5:17 post

Gulfstream’s 10th race is headlined by the formidable #8 LITTLE MIKE (2-1). Given his for 5 for 6 record at Gulfstream, and 6 for 7 wins at the distance, the 2-1 morning line may be an overlay. I will note that despite #4 DATA LINK (6-1) having never won a stakes race, he’s a perfect 4 for 4 on firm turf and might, just might, surprise.

Santa Anita

Race 11 – Grade 1 Santa Anita Hdcp ($750K) – 1 and 1/4 miles – 8:35 pm (eastern)

Santa Anita’s “Big Cap” seems ripe for an upset. #2 ULTIMATE EAGLE (5/2) enters after after a 7 length romp in the G.2 Strub on 4 Feb, however, he’s unraced at the mile and a quarter distance.  #9 SETSUKO (4-1) lost last year’s eventful Santa Anita Handicap to Game On Dude by a nose, but he’s proven to like 10 furlongs and may offer better value. I wouldn’t stop there though, I may just play the Pick 6 (with a $63K carryover), which figures to have some fairly predictable legs, and go deep in the Big Cap hoping for a bomb.

So, for shits and grins, here’s my $2 Pick 6 ticket for roughly $100 – 9/2/4,10,11/5,7/1/2,3,4,3,7,9,10,12 - Bombs away!

Derby Future Wager Pool #2

And lastly, this weekend is Pool #2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. After an eye catching performance in the Fountain of Youth, I figure UNION RAGS (4-1) will take lots of dough and leave the field (aka, “all others”) north of 3-1 (good odds in my opinion). The pool closes 6pm eastern on Sunday so it’s worth checking the odds to see if there’s any enticing prices.

Good luck!

Race 11 – 8.5 furlongs (1 and 1/16 miles) – Post time 5:13 (eastern)

The biggest news today is the scratch of favorite #2 ALGORITHMS (8/5) due to a popped splint. It remains to be seen whether this injury will take him off the Derby trail completely. An interesting backstory is jockey Javier Castellano’s decision to ride ALGORITHMS over UNION RAGS (on whom he was the regular rider and guided to a 2nd place in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). It can be a tough decision when a jockey has the mount on several great horses in the same division, but this decision may be coming back to haunt Javy sooner than he could have anticipated.

The defection of ALGORITMS leaves a field of seven and will change the complexion of the race.  The greatest threats to win appear to be Todd Pletcher’s #5 DISCREET DANCER (3-1) and Michael Matz’s #7 UNION RAGS (2-1). DISCREET DANCER is 2 for 2 lifetime and will be trying both stakes company and 2 turns for the first time. He’s also a Florida bred which makes him, along with #3 FORT LOUDON (20-1), eligible for a $100K bonus if he wins.

Looking at the probable race dynamics it appears DISCREET DANCER will be the early speed and take the field as far as he can, which may be the finish line if he can set an easy pace. He could face early pace pressure from #4 CASUAL TRICK (8-1) and set things up from a fast closing UNION RAGS. A question of course being how sharp is UNION RAGS off the layoff since November 5th. Another question bettors must ask themselves is whether or not this is really just a two-horse race.

A potential wild card is the Nick Zito-trained #4 CASUAL TRICK (8-1). He was the favorite over the highly regarded El Padrino and Take Charge Indy in his last race, but was beaten by over 30 lengths. However, his stumbled start and the sloppy track conditions may be legitimate excuses. If you throw out the last race, he looks to fit and might get first run on DISCREET DANCER in the stretch. With DISCREET DANCER and UNION RAGS expected to be at short prices, CASUAL TRICK may be the value play. And if Gulfstream Park gets an afternoon shower muddying the track, #8 CSABA (20-1) has proven to like the slop.

Good Luck!

#1 EIGHTTOFASTTOCATCH (7/2)

Was not re-entered in the Evening Attire Stakes a couple weeks back after snow canceled the card and the race was re-scheduled the following week. He loves Laurel Park having won over the strip eight times. He will be involved in the pace but can also stalk which gives him an advantage over several rivals. The only negative is seven furlongs, it’s a tricky distance he’s never ran, but has wins at a mile going around one turn so he should be able to handle it.

#2 MY CUZ CJ (20-1)

Tough to make a strong case as he has never gone seven panels and none of his recent races are longer than six furlongs. Combine that with average speed ratings and he appears to be overmatched.

#3 THIS ONES FOR PHIL (8-1)

Entered after just having raced on Friday, Phil has won two straight over the Inner at Aqueduct. While he has shown the ability to pass horses, his best efforts have been on the front end and with other speed in the race he might be up against it. He caught small fields in two of his last three races which may be dressing them up a bit. He could win, but I’m leaving him off my ticket.

#4 TOBY’S CORNER (3-1)

We come to the horse that I’m most excited to talk about and see him back. Toby showed great promise last year winning several stakes at Aqueduct including a tremendous performance in the Wood Memorial, but sadly had to miss the Kentucky Derby with an injury. He’s shown up to every race and his losses have been to quality opponents in Ruler on Ice (Belmont winner) and Stay Thirsty (Travers winner). He is two for two at Laurel and both were one turn races. He’ll have to overcome that long layoff and being tabbed as the high weight for the race but I think he can do it.

#5 YAWANNA TWIST (4-1)

This might not be his most accomplished distance, but I’ve always thought of him as more of a seven furlong or one-turn miler. After a poor effort in the Met Mile, he was given some time off and came back to romp on New Year’s Eve. Dutrow appears to be confident that he’s in peak form and can win, but he has a tendency to hang in the stretch in big races. This field is solid so he will indeed have to be on his best game to get into the winners circle.

#6 CAIXA ELECTRONICA (5/2)

Sixteen time winner is usually coupled with Calibrachoa as a solid tandem for trainer Todd Pletcher. In the Toboggan he finished third showing some late interest. It was not as impressive as some of his past work and makes me wonder if he’s regressing at age seven. Considering that and he’ll probably be a short price, I’ll leave him off my ticket.

#7 FORDANGSHORE (10-1)

FORDANGSHORE has run some nice races in allowance company and I’m interested to see if he can make the jump up to next level and be competitive against graded stakes company.  His last two efforts put him right there and his running style coming from just off the pace is ideal. Julian Pimentel will ride him back and try to make it a third straight trip to the winners circle.

Even with the layoff, TOBY’S CORNER is the one to beat in my opinion. I’m going to box him with EIGHTTOFASTTOCATCH and FORDANGSHORE in exactas and trifectas. This should be a great renewal of the General George Handicap.

Good Luck Everyone!

Gulfstream Park Race 2 – Maiden Separate Weight ($51K) – 7 furlongs – 1pm post time

Nine horse field has five 1st time starters. Unless I have a clear cut pedigree or workout angle I prefer horses making their 2nd start as they usually improve off their initial start. Of the 2nd timers, #2 DESERT STORM (3-1) and #5 Z VILNA (5/2) are the standouts. DESERT STORM ran green and wide in his 1st start at Churchill Downs and may offer a tad more value come post time. #3 SENSOR is worth a paddock look as trainer Albertrani has a nice ROI with 1st time starters.

Gulfstream Park Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming ($75K)N1x – 1 mile – 1:29 post

All signs point to #4 SPRING HILL FARM (5/2) for me. Named after the late Edward Evans’ Thoroughbred farm near Warrenton, VA (and close to my hometown), this colt romped after setting an easy pace on the lead in his 1st start. He won’t offer much value, so the other Pletcher horse, #2 BIG BLUE NATION  (5-1), is also worth a look. He gets Ramon Dominquez to ride and could stalk the pace.

Gulfstream Park Race 4 – MSW ($51.5K) – 7 furlongs – 1:57 post

Another nine horse maiden race with five 1st time starters. I have no strong opinions and it looks fairly wide open. #9 MAJESTIC NUMBER (6-1) does have a few things I like: outside post ensures he won’t get trapped down on the rail; making his 2nd start so improvement is expected; equipment change (“Blinkers On”) may help his chances; and lastly, if the 6-1 morning line holds, that’s a fair price for a horse trained by Pletcher who’s winning at 37% clip.

Gulfstream Park Race 5 – MSW ($51.5K) – 8.5 furlongs (turf) – 2:25 post

Just what I love, a wide open turf race with lots of options. This is the type of race where you should demand value both on top and underneath your exotic tickets. Logical contenders figure to be #1 BRIDGE LOAN (3-1), #2 GRAND TIER (5-1), #5 STREET TALK’N (15-1!), #7 YANKEE BOSS (6-1), #8 GOLDEN TICKET (5/2), #9 LOGAN STREET (20-1), and #10 BIG JOHN B (15-1). #5 STREET TALK’N is intriguing just based on his strong pedigree. However, he barely picked up his feet in his first race and has relatively low percentage connections (trainer and jock winning at 8% and 9% respectively). He may take to the turf so I’ll definitely use underneath in the trifecta and possibly on top for smaller units if I’m feeling particularly optimistic. Tough race, but has the potential for a big payday for whoever can crack it.

Gulfstream Park Race 6 – MSW – fillies age 4 & up ($51.5K) 7 furlongs – 2:53 post

Of the eleven entries, the four I like most are #2 SILENT FRIGHT (3-1), #3 ONEPOINTTHREEKARATS (6-1), #8 SANADAAT (5-1), and #9 HAYLIE BRAE (10-1). The best risk/reward play may be the well-bred SANADAAT with the solid trainer / jockey combo of Christophe Clement (33% win rate) and Javier Castellano (21% win rate).

Gulfstream Park R7 – AOC ($80K) – 8.5 furlongs (turf) – 3:21 post

Another competitive turf race that any number of horses can seemingly win. If forced to pick the winner, I’d say #6 MOBILIZER (4-1). He lost by a neck last time out at the same level despite having to check up and alter course on the backstretch. Starting 2nd off the layoff for the venerable Roger Attfield and picks up a slight jockey upgrade with Castellano. The favorite, #4 PANTS ON FIRE (3-1), may take a lot of action, but I’ll let him beat me making his 1st start on the lawn at predicted short odds. Will live or die with MOBILIZER and go deep under to hopefully catch a price in the bottom of the exacta and trifecta.

Gulfstream Park R8 – Grade II Hutcheson Stakes ($150K) – 7 furlongs – 3:49 post

Small 6 horse field may not be the best betting race. #6 EVER SO LUCKY should sit a good trip (2-1) coming off the slight layoff. #3 THUNDER MOCCASIN (7/5) might try, and very could, wire the field. However, he could also get pressured by #5 IL VILLANO (5-1). So I’ll play EVER SO LUCKY on top and use THUNDER MOCCASIN and #4 QUICK WIT (6-1) in the exacta and trifecta. Be sure to catch the 3rd race, where a win by SPRING HILL FARM would reflect favorably on QUICK WIT’s chances.

Gulfstream Park R8 – Grade III Swanee River Stakes ($150K) – 9 furlongs (turf) – 4:17 post

While #2 DENOMINATION (3-1) is the morning line favorite, it’s hard for me to look past #4 HEAVENLY LANDING (4-1). After starting her career with 1 win in 10 tries, she’s reeled off 3 consecutive wins after switching to the turf. I’ll use her with the reliable #8 SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN (5-1) and #5 GOLD d’ ORO (8-1) and #6 HIT IT RICH (8-1).

Gulfstream Park R10 – Grade I Donn Handicap ($500K) – 9 furlongs – 4:45 post

My attention is drawn to #8 TRICKMEISTER (6-1) with his impressive 5 for 5 record, but jumping up in class by making his 1st start in a graded stakes race (not to mention a Grade I race). He does have a win at the distance and is 1 for 1 at Gulfstream. Biggest threat is to his immediate outside, #9 SHACKELFORD (7/2). This is SHACKELFORD’s first race since getting ganked by CALEB’s POSSE in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and he’s yet to find the winner’s circle since the Preakness. They should hook up early, battle throughout, and may, just may, set things up for stalker #7 FLAT OUT (5-1) or mid-packer #10 HYMM BOOK (8-1). Only thing I can say for sure is it will be an exciting race.

Gulfstream Park R11 – Grade I Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap ($300K) – 9 furlongs (turf) – 5:13

If I have any money left at this point I will bet this race. Only problem is this is another seemingly wide open turf field. #1 SILVER MEDALLION (5-1), #2 HOLLINGER (12-1), #3 BIG BLUE KITTEN (12-1), #5 BOISTEROUS (3-1) all look good. I’ll take a shot at a big score with BIG BLUE KITTEN at double-digit odds. The 4 year old out of Kitten’s Joy (a sentimental favorite) is the picture of consistency and gets a minor weight break (4 pounds) on the favorites. Hopefully Leparoux can get him well-positioned with clear running room in the stretch (fingers crossed).

Good luck everyone!

Sunshine Millions this year will be different from prior years. Prior years featured Florida-breds and California-breds racing against each other in stakes that alternated between in venue between Gulfstream and Santa Anita Park near Los Angeles. This year, Gulfstream has a Florida-bred centered program and Santa Anita has a California-bred centered program.

In a new twist this year, races from Santa Anita and Gulfstream will be mixed together into a one-time wager called the “Luck Pick Six”. This wager carries a one dollar base, a mandatory payout (no carryover), and a minimum pool of $250,000. The wager is a cross-promotional tool between the two festivals and also celebrates the beginning of HBO’s racing-centered series “Luck”.

We’ll look only at the Gulfstream portion. For a look at the Santa Anita portion, please visit Chris Hernandez’s “Giving My Ten Cents” blog and read his Sunshine Millions thoughts here.

Race 5 — Florida Sunshine Millions Distaff S. — 1 1/8 miles — Post tlime 2:35 EDT

Going for an upset right off the bat. DELIGHTFUL MARY has only one bad race on her resume, when sent wide last spring in the G1 Ashland at Keeneland. Last time out in a single-turn mile over this course she sat off respectable speed and won. Jockey/trainer team dominated in Canada, but have been quite capable in South Florida. AWESOME FEATHER will be the hype horse. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner starts for the first time since Thanksgiving. She’s certainly capable on paper but I am using her defensively. But I think my top pick offers equivalent risk and a better payout. SWEET REPENT fits at this minor stakes level, having won a number of them at Calder, South Florida’s other track. Gets a rider upgrade today, but in her last starts has finished behind fellow entrants MY PAL CHRISY and our top pick.

#3 DELIGHTFUL MARY (5/1)

#4 AWESOME FEAT (4/5)

#6 SWEET REPENT (6/1)

Longshot: Wait a minute….where are we?!. What are these strange trees? And where are the Illinois-breds? And where’s the Metra or the 54B bus? Well, give me a race to get my bearings. I got nothing.

Race 6 — Florida Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint S. — 3/4 miles (6 furlongs) — Post time 3:05 EDT

Today’s race, like all the other Florida Sunshine Millions races, does not carry a grade, and graded races tend to be of higher quality. That said, POMEROY’S PISTOL won the G3 Sugar Swirl at Gulfstream last time at today’s six furlong distance. Has never been worse than third in her career at Gulfstream and enters off two sharp workouts upstate. IT’S ME MOM had a stellar 2011, banking over $200K, with the only blemish coming from a bad break four back in Erie. Here, she’s the speed of the speed and Gulfstream has been known in the past to play kindly to front running speed. BC Filly & Mare Sprint winner MUSICAL ROMANCE makes her first start from the mothballs. She had a solid season at Calder, and appeared on the radar when second in the prestigious Princess Rooney. Duplicating her best last year would top these.

#5 POMEROY’S PISTOL (3/1)

#1 IT’S ME MOM (4/1)

#6 MUSICAL ROMANCE (5/2)

Longshot: #7 BEAT THE BLUES (6/1) has won fifty percent of her races in her career, but if you look only at starts on fast dirt, she has eleven starts, seven wins, two seconds, and a third. I think she hated the faux dirt surface three back against fellow entrant MUSICAL ROMANCE, and she’ll make the third start off the shelf for solid New Orleans-based human connections.

Race 7 — Florida Sunshine Millions Sprint S. — 3/4 miles (6 furlongs). — 1 1/8 miles — Post time 3:35 EDT

The one-two finishers of the Mr. Prospector Stakes, run at six furlongs overll this same course, return. I think they’ll finish that way again. APRIORITY closed to nail ZERO RATE POLICY on the line last time, and the winner has kept company with some good foes. Toss the effort in the slop at Belmont three back, and over a quirky moisture-retaining Churchill surface two back and his dry track efforts are good enough to take this. ZERO RATE POLICY has never finished worse than fourth in his career, and has eight top two finishes (and five wins) in ten lifetime tries. Never worse than second over the local dirt. ROYAL CURRIER has been competitive in age-minor stakes in the Mid-Atlantic and ships south, getting a rider upgrade to Dominguez. Never out of the trifecta in ten tries at today’s distance.

#7 APRIORITY (2/1)

#6 ZERO RATE POLICY (3/1)

#1 ROYAL CURRIER (6/1)b

Longshot: Third to ZERO RATE POLICY two back, #5 IT’S NEVER TOO LATE (12/1) could have been yours four starts back at Delaware for the low low price of $50K. Prior to throwing a clunker at Tampa, he had a stellar 2011 (six wins, $165K earnings). He’s won over the Gulfstream dirt before (five times, to be precise), and if ZERO RATE POLICY gets softened on the front end he’ll have a puncher’s chance.

Race 8 — (Leg #1 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf S. — 1 1/8 miles (Turf)– Post time 4:10 EDT

The portable rail will be, at publish time, set to 36 feet. G3 winner ROMACACA returns from a somewhat long layoff (a 29% win proposition) for Calabrese/Canini. Last time before the trip to cold storage, she pressed a solid pace and was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths at Saratoga against a field far and away better than these. She can win stalking, and she was classy enough and quick enough to grab a minor check in the prestigious Beverly D in 2010. Another G3 winner, UNBRIDLED HUMOR, returns since the Matriarch on Thanksgiving weekend. Trainer Motion (of Animal Kingdom fame) isn’t a frequent shipper, and she was in the same zip code as Never Retreat, last year’s best horse on the Arlington grounds and a solid female turfer. Defending champion TRIP FOR A.J. sees the starter here. With eleven money finishes in thirteen turf tries, many of them at similar state-bred conditions, she’ll be in the mix. Her up-close style will also be an asset given the rail position.

#5 ROMACACA (3/1)

#4 UNBRIDLED HUMOR (5/2)

#7 TRIP FOR A.J. (5/1)

Longshot: One for the home team with the honest mare #9 ROMIN ROBIN (8/1). She may like the grass in Chicago more, but she’s got six money finishes in twelve tries over the Gulfstream grass. I know she hasn’t won since the spring at Arlington, but she missed by inches against fellow entrant ASKBUT I WONTTELL, was overmatched in the Beverly D. Goes second start off the layoff.

Race 9 — (Leg #3 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Turf S. — 1 1/8 miles (Turf) — Post time 4:50 EDT

The portable rail will be, at publish time, set to 96 feet. TEAKS NORTH won two grade one (G1) races last year, the prestigious United Nations and the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, last year. The latter is at the same distance and course as today’s event. Goes second start off the layoff, which the trainer has done eight times in the past year, winning twice with two additional money finishers and a an ROI of $9.22. BAD DEBT won against fellow statebreds two back at Calder. Been in the top two all four career starts on the Gulfstream sod, and brought to you by a 20% trainer. ALLIE’S EVENT spent most of last year cashing checks in upper level allowances and stakes like the River City. The rail position, and presence of LITTLE MIKE giving pace, means this one-run closer will have something to attack. Enters off a sharp workout upstate at Tampa Bay Downs.

#10 TEAKS NORTH (3/1)

#3 BAD DEBT (6/1)

#7 ALLIE’S EVENT (12/1)

Longshot: #6 BECKHAM BEND (15/1) will be up close to the pace, and if the closers don’t come around this one can attack the leaders. Toss out the dismal effort going three turns in the Pan American and he’s hit the top two more than half the time. Was in the same zip code as a graded stakes-bound horse last time upstate at Tampa.

Race 10 — (Leg #5 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Classic S. — 1 1/8 miles — Post time 5:25 EDT

RON THE GREEK only beat four others, but he did it with aplomb last time in New York and has been working steadily since relocating to Florida. Sharp connections abound as he rides a two-race win streak, winning two races back at today’s distance. TURBO COMPRESSOR demolished Florida-breds across town last time and he faces state-breds again. Team has seven top two finishes in their last thirteen starts and he’s won over this course. DUKE OF MISCHIEF hasn’t been to the winners’ circle since beating Game On Dude (Horse of the Year finalist) and Tizway (double G1 winner) in West Virginia. He’s been facing a lot of big names, and none of them will be in the gate for this race, suggesting a drop in class. Trainer is 20% in listed stakes (like today’s).

#7 RON THE GREEK (5/1)

#5 TURBO COMPRESSOR (2/1)

#1 DUKE OF MISCHIEF (6/1)

Longshot: Give me #4 DECAF AGAIN at 30-1. This is a mess of a race where everyone has questions or flaws. Can ‘DUKE close off an honest pace? Can ‘TURBO get the lead? Can MUCHO MACHO MAN live up to hype? Can ADIOS CHARLIE go two turns? Is ‘RON for real? Toss out the last two turf races (we’re not on the turf today), and if our 1-2 picks decide to go at each other and commit suicide, DECAF AGAIN could come from the parking lot to pick up the pieces.

(As a note, legs 2, 4, and 6 correspond to the 4th, 5th, and 6th races at Santa Anita. For more info, see “Giving my Ten Cents“.)

Good luck this weekend!

 Gov. Edgar served on the board of Youbet.com and has been an active campaigner for programs (such as alternative gaming) that better the health of racing in Illinois. He also has bred and raced horses in Illinois (although he has, unfortunately, sought richer purses in bordering states in recent years).

This week’s feature, the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity, is the male complement of last week’s race. Like the Whitworth, it’s a sneak peak at tomorrow’s state-bred stars. Like the Whitworth, it’s restricted to Illinois-Bred two-year-olds and carries a $100K purse. Let’s meet the field.

Hawthorne — Race 8 — 8.5F — Post time 6:17 ET

#1, STRONGEST LINK. Broke his maiden at first asking across town at Arlington. In his second start, he was behind Feels Like Flying, the Showtime Deb runner-up in a first level turf allowance. Last time he ran evenly in the back of the pack in the Royal Glint, a $60K route on turf. While rider C. Roman has been riding well this meet, and he comes from the steady C. Block barn, this one was regressing speed figures and has never won past five and one-half furlongs. Looking elsewhere.

#2, PRINCE CHEVAL. It took him five tries to graduate, but he finally got the job done last time out in a statebred maiden special weight. He has tangled with some decent two year olds in his earlier starts (Sweet Luca, Here Comes Frazier). Today however will be first time going a route of ground and in stakes company. Trainer has one win in nine Hawthorne starts, two wins in twenty-seven starts this year. Both wins have come with Lantz riding (who rides here), but that makes for team stats south of ten percent, and a rider south of ten percent. There’s a pulse, but it’s faint.

#3, BLING KING. The first of two trained by Jim DiVito. During the Arlington meet, DiVito sent out two year old winners in almost half of the races. He’s hitting at 20% for the meet, 26% for the year, and 39% with juveniles. Last time he tried allowance company and a route, and was only a length behind fellow entrant YANKEE DEALER after leading most of the way. In all his races, he’s been on the front end but only once been able to take them start to finish. I question his ability to pass horses, but he has hit the trifecta in all five of his races and has two wins: one at first asking and one two back in an N2L claimer. Minor awards.

#4, REAL POWER. Recall from last week’s post that maidens can jump up and snag these late-season stakes. Here’s a maiden, but he’s finished second three times in his five career starts. Each one of his starts has been around two turns, be it a mile on the grass at either Arlignton or Hawthorne or a mile and seventy yards on the Hawthorne dirt. Trained by C. Block (>20% in most categories) and ridden by the meet’s leader, F. Geroux. He’s a one-run closer, so he’ll need upfront pace to set up his rally. The upfront speed is likely. One of the ones.

#5, TWELVE HUNDRED. He was the buzz horse before the G3 Arlington Washington Futurity, based on DiVito’s success with two year old runners, his purchase price (hint: the name), and his eight length win going a two-turn mile in Iowa. When going one turn in that polytrack G3, he was up close to a moderate pace before going backwards in the stretch. Last time out he was the focus of a late win plunge of $50K in the win pool that sunk his odds to 1-9. He was up close to a fast pace and then went backwards in the stretch again, sinking the win money plungers. Perhaps going back to two turns dictating the pace will help, but he isn’t going to have a free lunch on the front end. While DiVito (this is his second of two runners) is strong with juveniles, his percentages plummet the higher up the class ladder. Worth taking a stand against.

#6, YANKEE DEALER. The third and final entrant trained by Chris Block, and this one is brought to you by the Tarra Trust (who own Giant Oak). He’ll have Block’s first-call rider, Eddie Perez, in the saddle. His first two starts on polytrack featured awful speed figures and no wins. When stretched out to two turns and put the dirt, the speed figures and placings improved. He graduated two back in open company in the mud and won a statebred first-level allowance. A stalker, I like the fact he won with two different pace scenarios. Win pick.

#7, SHELLYS WILD. The first of two runners trained by Michael Reavis. Here’s another that has yet to get the picture taken. Trainer and team stats are solid. His two starts featured him close to paces and then getting passed turning for home. The pace scenario won’t be kind to him, however. It’s possible that he’s used as a rabbit to set up his entry mate and stable mate, but why would Reavis’s first-call rider get back aboard the one with the least advantageous pace scenario? Mixed feelings and low unders at best.

#8, HERE COMES MARIO. The second of two runners trained by Reavis. Another runner with zero wins. Although Reavis is a solid juvenile trainer, he’s using C. Castro (7% wins at Hawthorne) as his pilot for the first time. He’s routed in all five of his career starts. This one will come off the pace, but the closest he’s been to the diploma is third position, or fourth beaten a length. I won’t argue with those that use him as a low unders candidate, but I don’t think today is the day he gets the one-up, defeats the evil boss, and moves on to the next level.

#9, LAKOTA WOLF. Another horse with a donut in the win column. After showing a minor bit of closing kick in three prior starts, Geroux placed him closer to the pace last out in a route. He got a minor award while moving up to open company. Rider downgrade to Q. Hamilton, speed figures have been nothing to get excited over, and he showed his best when close to a pace. Doubtful.

Selections:

#6 YANKEE DEALER (7/2)

#4 REAL POWER (9/2)

#3 BLING KING (5/1)

Longshot:  He’s never tried a route, but he did get a win on the dirt last time. Given a pace that could be hot on the front with two DIVito runners winging it on the engine, closer #2 PRINCE CHEVAL (12/1) has a good chance if the pace is strong as projected. While he’s never been a route, his pedigree (Leroidesanimaux X Navajo Princess, out of Alphabet Soup) suggests a route won’t be out of his league. Odds should hold, given the the presence of the three >20% trainers.

Be sure to check out the author’s twitter feed (@heylaserbeam), for on-the-scene happenings from the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity at Hawthorne. You can also check us out on Facebook and on twitter (@wireplayers) for spot plays from Hollywood to Gulfstream and everywhere in between. Good luck!