Sunshine Millions this year will be different from prior years. Prior years featured Florida-breds and California-breds racing against each other in stakes that alternated between in venue between Gulfstream and Santa Anita Park near Los Angeles. This year, Gulfstream has a Florida-bred centered program and Santa Anita has a California-bred centered program.

In a new twist this year, races from Santa Anita and Gulfstream will be mixed together into a one-time wager called the “Luck Pick Six”. This wager carries a one dollar base, a mandatory payout (no carryover), and a minimum pool of $250,000. The wager is a cross-promotional tool between the two festivals and also celebrates the beginning of HBO’s racing-centered series “Luck”.

We’ll look only at the Gulfstream portion. For a look at the Santa Anita portion, please visit Chris Hernandez’s “Giving My Ten Cents” blog and read his Sunshine Millions thoughts here.

Race 5 — Florida Sunshine Millions Distaff S. — 1 1/8 miles — Post tlime 2:35 EDT

Going for an upset right off the bat. DELIGHTFUL MARY has only one bad race on her resume, when sent wide last spring in the G1 Ashland at Keeneland. Last time out in a single-turn mile over this course she sat off respectable speed and won. Jockey/trainer team dominated in Canada, but have been quite capable in South Florida. AWESOME FEATHER will be the hype horse. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner starts for the first time since Thanksgiving. She’s certainly capable on paper but I am using her defensively. But I think my top pick offers equivalent risk and a better payout. SWEET REPENT fits at this minor stakes level, having won a number of them at Calder, South Florida’s other track. Gets a rider upgrade today, but in her last starts has finished behind fellow entrants MY PAL CHRISY and our top pick.

#3 DELIGHTFUL MARY (5/1)

#4 AWESOME FEAT (4/5)

#6 SWEET REPENT (6/1)

Longshot: Wait a minute….where are we?!. What are these strange trees? And where are the Illinois-breds? And where’s the Metra or the 54B bus? Well, give me a race to get my bearings. I got nothing.

Race 6 — Florida Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint S. — 3/4 miles (6 furlongs) — Post time 3:05 EDT

Today’s race, like all the other Florida Sunshine Millions races, does not carry a grade, and graded races tend to be of higher quality. That said, POMEROY’S PISTOL won the G3 Sugar Swirl at Gulfstream last time at today’s six furlong distance. Has never been worse than third in her career at Gulfstream and enters off two sharp workouts upstate. IT’S ME MOM had a stellar 2011, banking over $200K, with the only blemish coming from a bad break four back in Erie. Here, she’s the speed of the speed and Gulfstream has been known in the past to play kindly to front running speed. BC Filly & Mare Sprint winner MUSICAL ROMANCE makes her first start from the mothballs. She had a solid season at Calder, and appeared on the radar when second in the prestigious Princess Rooney. Duplicating her best last year would top these.

#5 POMEROY’S PISTOL (3/1)

#1 IT’S ME MOM (4/1)

#6 MUSICAL ROMANCE (5/2)

Longshot: #7 BEAT THE BLUES (6/1) has won fifty percent of her races in her career, but if you look only at starts on fast dirt, she has eleven starts, seven wins, two seconds, and a third. I think she hated the faux dirt surface three back against fellow entrant MUSICAL ROMANCE, and she’ll make the third start off the shelf for solid New Orleans-based human connections.

Race 7 — Florida Sunshine Millions Sprint S. — 3/4 miles (6 furlongs). — 1 1/8 miles — Post time 3:35 EDT

The one-two finishers of the Mr. Prospector Stakes, run at six furlongs overll this same course, return. I think they’ll finish that way again. APRIORITY closed to nail ZERO RATE POLICY on the line last time, and the winner has kept company with some good foes. Toss the effort in the slop at Belmont three back, and over a quirky moisture-retaining Churchill surface two back and his dry track efforts are good enough to take this. ZERO RATE POLICY has never finished worse than fourth in his career, and has eight top two finishes (and five wins) in ten lifetime tries. Never worse than second over the local dirt. ROYAL CURRIER has been competitive in age-minor stakes in the Mid-Atlantic and ships south, getting a rider upgrade to Dominguez. Never out of the trifecta in ten tries at today’s distance.

#7 APRIORITY (2/1)

#6 ZERO RATE POLICY (3/1)

#1 ROYAL CURRIER (6/1)b

Longshot: Third to ZERO RATE POLICY two back, #5 IT’S NEVER TOO LATE (12/1) could have been yours four starts back at Delaware for the low low price of $50K. Prior to throwing a clunker at Tampa, he had a stellar 2011 (six wins, $165K earnings). He’s won over the Gulfstream dirt before (five times, to be precise), and if ZERO RATE POLICY gets softened on the front end he’ll have a puncher’s chance.

Race 8 — (Leg #1 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf S. — 1 1/8 miles (Turf)– Post time 4:10 EDT

The portable rail will be, at publish time, set to 36 feet. G3 winner ROMACACA returns from a somewhat long layoff (a 29% win proposition) for Calabrese/Canini. Last time before the trip to cold storage, she pressed a solid pace and was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths at Saratoga against a field far and away better than these. She can win stalking, and she was classy enough and quick enough to grab a minor check in the prestigious Beverly D in 2010. Another G3 winner, UNBRIDLED HUMOR, returns since the Matriarch on Thanksgiving weekend. Trainer Motion (of Animal Kingdom fame) isn’t a frequent shipper, and she was in the same zip code as Never Retreat, last year’s best horse on the Arlington grounds and a solid female turfer. Defending champion TRIP FOR A.J. sees the starter here. With eleven money finishes in thirteen turf tries, many of them at similar state-bred conditions, she’ll be in the mix. Her up-close style will also be an asset given the rail position.

#5 ROMACACA (3/1)

#4 UNBRIDLED HUMOR (5/2)

#7 TRIP FOR A.J. (5/1)

Longshot: One for the home team with the honest mare #9 ROMIN ROBIN (8/1). She may like the grass in Chicago more, but she’s got six money finishes in twelve tries over the Gulfstream grass. I know she hasn’t won since the spring at Arlington, but she missed by inches against fellow entrant ASKBUT I WONTTELL, was overmatched in the Beverly D. Goes second start off the layoff.

Race 9 — (Leg #3 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Turf S. — 1 1/8 miles (Turf) — Post time 4:50 EDT

The portable rail will be, at publish time, set to 96 feet. TEAKS NORTH won two grade one (G1) races last year, the prestigious United Nations and the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, last year. The latter is at the same distance and course as today’s event. Goes second start off the layoff, which the trainer has done eight times in the past year, winning twice with two additional money finishers and a an ROI of $9.22. BAD DEBT won against fellow statebreds two back at Calder. Been in the top two all four career starts on the Gulfstream sod, and brought to you by a 20% trainer. ALLIE’S EVENT spent most of last year cashing checks in upper level allowances and stakes like the River City. The rail position, and presence of LITTLE MIKE giving pace, means this one-run closer will have something to attack. Enters off a sharp workout upstate at Tampa Bay Downs.

#10 TEAKS NORTH (3/1)

#3 BAD DEBT (6/1)

#7 ALLIE’S EVENT (12/1)

Longshot: #6 BECKHAM BEND (15/1) will be up close to the pace, and if the closers don’t come around this one can attack the leaders. Toss out the dismal effort going three turns in the Pan American and he’s hit the top two more than half the time. Was in the same zip code as a graded stakes-bound horse last time upstate at Tampa.

Race 10 — (Leg #5 of “Luck Pick Six”) — Florida Sunshine Millions Classic S. — 1 1/8 miles — Post time 5:25 EDT

RON THE GREEK only beat four others, but he did it with aplomb last time in New York and has been working steadily since relocating to Florida. Sharp connections abound as he rides a two-race win streak, winning two races back at today’s distance. TURBO COMPRESSOR demolished Florida-breds across town last time and he faces state-breds again. Team has seven top two finishes in their last thirteen starts and he’s won over this course. DUKE OF MISCHIEF hasn’t been to the winners’ circle since beating Game On Dude (Horse of the Year finalist) and Tizway (double G1 winner) in West Virginia. He’s been facing a lot of big names, and none of them will be in the gate for this race, suggesting a drop in class. Trainer is 20% in listed stakes (like today’s).

#7 RON THE GREEK (5/1)

#5 TURBO COMPRESSOR (2/1)

#1 DUKE OF MISCHIEF (6/1)

Longshot: Give me #4 DECAF AGAIN at 30-1. This is a mess of a race where everyone has questions or flaws. Can ‘DUKE close off an honest pace? Can ‘TURBO get the lead? Can MUCHO MACHO MAN live up to hype? Can ADIOS CHARLIE go two turns? Is ‘RON for real? Toss out the last two turf races (we’re not on the turf today), and if our 1-2 picks decide to go at each other and commit suicide, DECAF AGAIN could come from the parking lot to pick up the pieces.

(As a note, legs 2, 4, and 6 correspond to the 4th, 5th, and 6th races at Santa Anita. For more info, see “Giving my Ten Cents“.)

Good luck this weekend!

 Gov. Edgar served on the board of Youbet.com and has been an active campaigner for programs (such as alternative gaming) that better the health of racing in Illinois. He also has bred and raced horses in Illinois (although he has, unfortunately, sought richer purses in bordering states in recent years).

This week’s feature, the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity, is the male complement of last week’s race. Like the Whitworth, it’s a sneak peak at tomorrow’s state-bred stars. Like the Whitworth, it’s restricted to Illinois-Bred two-year-olds and carries a $100K purse. Let’s meet the field.

Hawthorne — Race 8 — 8.5F — Post time 6:17 ET

#1, STRONGEST LINK. Broke his maiden at first asking across town at Arlington. In his second start, he was behind Feels Like Flying, the Showtime Deb runner-up in a first level turf allowance. Last time he ran evenly in the back of the pack in the Royal Glint, a $60K route on turf. While rider C. Roman has been riding well this meet, and he comes from the steady C. Block barn, this one was regressing speed figures and has never won past five and one-half furlongs. Looking elsewhere.

#2, PRINCE CHEVAL. It took him five tries to graduate, but he finally got the job done last time out in a statebred maiden special weight. He has tangled with some decent two year olds in his earlier starts (Sweet Luca, Here Comes Frazier). Today however will be first time going a route of ground and in stakes company. Trainer has one win in nine Hawthorne starts, two wins in twenty-seven starts this year. Both wins have come with Lantz riding (who rides here), but that makes for team stats south of ten percent, and a rider south of ten percent. There’s a pulse, but it’s faint.

#3, BLING KING. The first of two trained by Jim DiVito. During the Arlington meet, DiVito sent out two year old winners in almost half of the races. He’s hitting at 20% for the meet, 26% for the year, and 39% with juveniles. Last time he tried allowance company and a route, and was only a length behind fellow entrant YANKEE DEALER after leading most of the way. In all his races, he’s been on the front end but only once been able to take them start to finish. I question his ability to pass horses, but he has hit the trifecta in all five of his races and has two wins: one at first asking and one two back in an N2L claimer. Minor awards.

#4, REAL POWER. Recall from last week’s post that maidens can jump up and snag these late-season stakes. Here’s a maiden, but he’s finished second three times in his five career starts. Each one of his starts has been around two turns, be it a mile on the grass at either Arlignton or Hawthorne or a mile and seventy yards on the Hawthorne dirt. Trained by C. Block (>20% in most categories) and ridden by the meet’s leader, F. Geroux. He’s a one-run closer, so he’ll need upfront pace to set up his rally. The upfront speed is likely. One of the ones.

#5, TWELVE HUNDRED. He was the buzz horse before the G3 Arlington Washington Futurity, based on DiVito’s success with two year old runners, his purchase price (hint: the name), and his eight length win going a two-turn mile in Iowa. When going one turn in that polytrack G3, he was up close to a moderate pace before going backwards in the stretch. Last time out he was the focus of a late win plunge of $50K in the win pool that sunk his odds to 1-9. He was up close to a fast pace and then went backwards in the stretch again, sinking the win money plungers. Perhaps going back to two turns dictating the pace will help, but he isn’t going to have a free lunch on the front end. While DiVito (this is his second of two runners) is strong with juveniles, his percentages plummet the higher up the class ladder. Worth taking a stand against.

#6, YANKEE DEALER. The third and final entrant trained by Chris Block, and this one is brought to you by the Tarra Trust (who own Giant Oak). He’ll have Block’s first-call rider, Eddie Perez, in the saddle. His first two starts on polytrack featured awful speed figures and no wins. When stretched out to two turns and put the dirt, the speed figures and placings improved. He graduated two back in open company in the mud and won a statebred first-level allowance. A stalker, I like the fact he won with two different pace scenarios. Win pick.

#7, SHELLYS WILD. The first of two runners trained by Michael Reavis. Here’s another that has yet to get the picture taken. Trainer and team stats are solid. His two starts featured him close to paces and then getting passed turning for home. The pace scenario won’t be kind to him, however. It’s possible that he’s used as a rabbit to set up his entry mate and stable mate, but why would Reavis’s first-call rider get back aboard the one with the least advantageous pace scenario? Mixed feelings and low unders at best.

#8, HERE COMES MARIO. The second of two runners trained by Reavis. Another runner with zero wins. Although Reavis is a solid juvenile trainer, he’s using C. Castro (7% wins at Hawthorne) as his pilot for the first time. He’s routed in all five of his career starts. This one will come off the pace, but the closest he’s been to the diploma is third position, or fourth beaten a length. I won’t argue with those that use him as a low unders candidate, but I don’t think today is the day he gets the one-up, defeats the evil boss, and moves on to the next level.

#9, LAKOTA WOLF. Another horse with a donut in the win column. After showing a minor bit of closing kick in three prior starts, Geroux placed him closer to the pace last out in a route. He got a minor award while moving up to open company. Rider downgrade to Q. Hamilton, speed figures have been nothing to get excited over, and he showed his best when close to a pace. Doubtful.

Selections:

#6 YANKEE DEALER (7/2)

#4 REAL POWER (9/2)

#3 BLING KING (5/1)

Longshot:  He’s never tried a route, but he did get a win on the dirt last time. Given a pace that could be hot on the front with two DIVito runners winging it on the engine, closer #2 PRINCE CHEVAL (12/1) has a good chance if the pace is strong as projected. While he’s never been a route, his pedigree (Leroidesanimaux X Navajo Princess, out of Alphabet Soup) suggests a route won’t be out of his league. Odds should hold, given the the presence of the three >20% trainers.

Be sure to check out the author’s twitter feed (@heylaserbeam), for on-the-scene happenings from the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity at Hawthorne. You can also check us out on Facebook and on twitter (@wireplayers) for spot plays from Hollywood to Gulfstream and everywhere in between. Good luck!

Both days of the weekend feature ho-hum cards.  Perhaps some plays on the Saturday Hawthorne program could lead to contest success.

Hawthorne — Race 1 — Illinois-Bred Maiden Special Weight (MSW) — 6F — Post Time 1:40 CT

The pick to win is SLIGO BREEZE.  I know this is a trainer that’s zero-for-thirteen with first time starters with a seven percent rider taking the call.  The upsides are there, however.  The dam has one winner from three starts, and the rest of the field looks like as appetizing as stale pumpkin pie.  Of the experienced runners, LA TIA looks best.  She checks in with two thirds in two career starts.  It’s very possible this one found a soft field and today is graduation day.  It’s also possible this one has learned how to burn tickets.  There looks to be enough on-paper pace to set up THUNDERING HOOFS.  Trainer is 18% on the meet, 19% second off layoffs, half of a good team.  The shorter field and inside post should help this filly here.

#3 SLIGO BREEZE (8/1)
#5 LA TIA (9/5)
#4 THUNDERING HOOFS (6/1)

Longshot: I think I have a better chance with some of that stale pumpkin pie.

Hawthorne — Race 8 —  $5,000 N2Y Claimer — 6.5F — Post TIme 5:17 PM CT

Nearly every Hawthorne card this kind of a race: a $5K claimer.  Which also happens to be the lowest levels of claimers on the grounds.  And we have an overflow field.  LITTLEBROWNROAD hails from the 21% Berndt barn and the team has done well at Hawthorne.  The downside on him is that he’s developed a case of seconditis this year, with six of them out of the eight starts he’s made this year.  However he has a win and a third to go with six seconds, and has banked $172K lifetime the hard way, picking up checks in low budget claimers and while avoiding Arlington.  Not bad at all.  RUN WITH EAGLES won last time in an N1Y over the local oval.  He’s made three starts in his career at Hawthorne, with a win, a third, and a bad break forgiving him in the last one.  RADAR MAN won in the summer at Indiana Downs for more than three times today’s price.  Last time he plunged to the N2Y level, a clear cut second behind a four-length winner.  Cuts back to a sprint, and has four thirds in nine starts this year.  Maybe the distance cutback puts him back on the beam.

#7 LITTLEBROWNROAD (3/1)
#8 RUN WITH EAGLES (6/1)
#12 RADAR MAN (5/1)

Longshot: Let’s try the new face among the gang, with #13 CAP’N FELIX (8/1).  He’s on the Also Eligible list so he’ll need aid to get in the field, but he won an N1Y claimer two back at Mountaineer while hitting the board about half the time at Ohio and West Virginia tracks.  Think the Mountaineer form holds up and maybe the new surroundings will be helpful.

Hawthorne — Race 9 —  $5,000 N3L Claimer — 6.5F — Post TIme 5:48 PM CT

Another spin on the basement-level claiming wheel.  SPREAD THE CHIPS, since been taken off the pace and getting Tanner Riggs to ride, has reeled off two victories in a row after trolling around in basement level $10K Maiden Claimers.  Riggs stays aboard for a team that spots a sparkling ROI.  CART’S GLITTER, if not for a horrible break four back at Hoosier, would likely have checks in all his starts.  Do note he is a front runner who has the passing skills of a parked car.  However he has two seconds in both his Hawthorne starts.  MAGIC MAN double drops to the bottom level after two starts for double the price.  The trainer is 20% on the double drop and the choice of Inez Karlsson, fresh off maternity leave, puts this once closer to the pace, tactics that led were led to wins during Hawthorne’s spring meet meet and across town at Arlington.

#11 SPREAD THE CHIPS (8/1)
#4 CART’S GLITTER (4/1)
#10 MAGIC MAN (6/1)

Longshot: He cleared the N2L condition via disqualification, but #6 JAUN DE LA PLAYA is a new face in a group where some runners seem to have permanent residency.  In three career dirt starts he has two wins (one via DQ).  The pace should be honest, if not a touch slow, and I like the switch to Cisco Torres, who should be able to keep him in the hint.   Not often you see a son of Street Cry in a bottom level N3L at Hawthorne.

From the Hollywood Turf Festival to the Aqueduct HolidayFest to Churchill’s Stars of Tomorrow II to the opening of Fair Grounds, there’s plenty of quality racing beyond the local sphere.  Among the out-of-town stake races, I’ll be rooting for the home team with NEVER RETREAT in her career finale in the G1 Matriarch at Hollywood on Friday.  

Be sure to check out Twitter and Facebook for updates all through the holiday weekend.  Good Luck!

Race 4: Louisiana Legacy S. – LA Bred, 1 Mile – 2:44 Post Time (central)

This race appears wide open with morning line favorite #2 JOE’S NO SAINT (3-1) looking rather vulnerable. He can win, but not any of his prior efforts grab my attention. My top choice is #5 PORTO POTTEA (15-1). This one comes off a win in his first time going two turns and first time at Delta Downs. He comes up for top connections in trainer Scott Gelmer and rider Shaun Bridgmohan and has a serious chance at a generous price. #10 VALIDFROMTHEGITGO (10-1) is one that might have bounced in the last race after two very encouraging efforts and appears to be working well in the morning, must use.

Race 5: Delta Mile S. – 1 Mile – Post Time 3:13 (central)

The Delta Mile is an interesting race that appears to be between two horses; #4 HOORAYFORHOLLYWOOD (4-1) and #6 GLENWOOD CANYON (2-1). I’ll also make a case for last year’s Delta Jackpot runner-up, #2 DECISIVE MOMENT (7/2). His form may be questionable coming into the race, but horses that have run well on this track before always tend to show up.  Most likely #4 HOORAYFORHOLLYWOOD will look to take them wire to wire, and even though #6 GLENWOOD CANYON turns around quickly, he has run well on short rest before and might be in the perfect spot.

Race 6: Delta Princess S. – 1 Mile – 3:43 Post Time (central)

Full field set in the Delta Princess and the first question you have to ask is can favorite #5 CANDREA (5/2) rebound from her disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Cup juvenile fillies. Personally, I’m going to play against her, as the quick turnaround doesn’t appease me. #2 NOW I KNOW (9/2) will put her perfect four for four record on the line trying to go a route of ground for the first time. She has gotten better in each of her races and gets the class test today. The My Trusty Cat Stakes winner #7 CITIZEN ADVOCATE (7/2) isn’t without a shot either as she won that race rather convincingly and is proven over the surface.

Race 7: Delta Jackpot S. – 1 & 1/16^th Miles – 4:15 Post Time (central)

The big dance is the last one of the sequence and features a full field trying to get a jumpstart on a bid for the Kentucky Derby next spring. Bob Baffert ships in #6 DRILL (2-1) who didn’t run a step in the Breeders’ Cup juvenile. This horse has been documented as being difficult to train and again with the short price and turnaround time between races I’m playing against emphatically. #5 MY ADONIS (4-1) quickly drew off when asked in his prep for this race and his stalker running style should be ideal as there appears to be some pace to his inside. He looks to be sitting in the perfect spot. Also on the ticket will be #3 TIZ MOE (15-1), he was a clear 2^nd best last time, but has a strong work since. Also using #8 SABERCAT (8-1) who beat #5 MY ADONIS two back and has connections that win a lot of races at Delta Downs (Steve Asmussen and Gerard Melancon).

Advance Weather: Partly Sunny, 70s

Good Luck!

Dylan’s Pick 4 Ticket – $0.50 = $45

Leg 1: 2,5,6,9,10

Leg 2: 2,4,6

Leg 3: 2,7

Leg 4: 3,5,8

BC Sprint – Churchill Downs Race 5 – Post Time 2:37 (Eastern)

#1 EUROEARS (4-1) – 7 year old horse (Speed)

Once the doors spring open for the Sprint, we’ll know within just a few strides whether Euroears will be embarking upon a successful endeavor or not. Breaking from the rail, this ‘need the lead’ type who won the Palos Verdes and Bing Crosby in wire to wire fashion needs a clean start, much unlike his trip in the Vosburgh. Euroears lost all chance that day when Calibrachoa veered in and bumped with him at the start, leaving him in the back of the pack. For such a fast horse, Euroears isn’t spectacular out of the gate but if he can avoid trouble he may be long gone coming to the 1/8^th pole.

Bottom Line: It may be asking too much of Euroears to get a clean break, and fend off Big Drama but by all accounts he’s training magnificently and will be a tough cookie in the stretch.

#2 GIANT RYAN (8-1) – 5 year old horse (Speed/Stalk)

In March, not only was Giant Ryan a massive longshot to run in the Breeders’ Cup, the betting public wouldn’t even make him the favorite in a NY-bred allowance race on Aqueduct’s Inner Track. After having won that start, Giant Ryan has steadily moved up in class, coming into this race on a 6 race win streak that includes the Smile Sprint Handicap and Vosburgh Invitational. This is not to say he’s a good bet on Saturday. He received a perfect, ground-saving, trip in the Smile and was barely able to run down Irrefutable, who set the pace and had already held off a strong bid from This Ones for Phil earlier in the race. His Vosburgh victory has its chinks as well. Giant Ryan inherited loose on the lead status once Euroears was all but eliminated at the break, thus having the race as his to lose at this point. Giant Ryan was game, no-doubt, in holding off Force Freeze throughout but he’s unlikely to see such circumstances once again.

Bottom line: I get the sense that Giant Ryan has hit the ceiling, making him an underlay Saturday.

#3 AIKENITE (8-1) – 4 year old colt (Mid/Closer)

Aikenite has finally tapped into his talent and potential that he hinted at in both his 2 and 3 year old seasons. I thought he maintained spectacular form in the spring from running a nice 2^nd to Apriority at Gulfstream, taking care of a lackluster field in the Commonwealth, and culminating with a thrilling win in the Churchill Downs stakes on Derby day. He fell off the wagon a bit in the Met Mile and James Marvin, but has run well since. What ultimately makes Aikenite a toss for me is the 6 furlong distance of the Sprint. Aikenite’s preferred distance is 7 furlongs, and at 6 he’ll need a real meltdown late, which is unlikely in my opinion.

Bottom Line: If you’re handicapping for a meltdown, Aikenite may offer better value than the other ‘closers’ but such a scenario is somewhat unfathomable.

#4 HAMAZING DESTINY (10-1) – 4 year old colt (Mid?)

After running second in this race last year Hamazing Destiny has had an uneven year. Off the long layoff, he ran very well in the James Marvin at Saratoga. He was then subsequently rushed back for some reason in the Vanderbilt and unsurprisingly ran up the track. He’s got a valid excuse for his 4^th place finish in the Forego having set such a wicked hot early pace for some reason. In his recent prep, he ran a decent third, which is somewhat excused since I don’t think he’s at his best on polytrack.

Bottom line: While he’s been disappointing to this point in the season, this is actually a good spot for Hamazing Destiny. He’s at his best at 6 furlongs, and my suspicion is that he’ll take back and make one late run, which is his preferred running style.

#5 JACKSON BEND (7/2) – 4 year old colt (Mid/Closer)

With most 3 year olds on the Triple Crown trail, it’s evident they have a solid amount of untapped potential. And much like Aikenite, Jackson Bend is finally delivering on those promises. It’s clear now that he’s always been best as a sprinter/miler after such a smashing 2011 campaign. Jackson made the most of a perfect, rail skimming trip in the James Marvin and came back to capitalize on a fast early-slow late pace scenario in the Forego. I very much admired his bold middle move against Uncle Mo in the Kelso, but nobody was getting to him that day and Jackson Bend held on well in the stretch.

Bottom line: While Jackson Bend as made the most of what he’s been given since the summer, I have a hard time believing he’ll be as effective at 6 furlongs. Like all the other closers in the race, he needs a meltdown late.

#6 FORCE FREEZE (10-1) – 6 year old gelding (Stalk)

Force Freeze is an interesting contender off his 2^nd place finish in the Vosburgh. His win in the Teddy Drone at Monmouth was impressive, having dueled Irrefutable and Khan of Khans into submission and then kicking clear late. While his line in the Vosburgh may look nice, I had an issue with his lack of speed there. Once it was clear that Giant Ryan had fell into the lead, Force Freeze did not have the speed to keep pace with him. It was until the final furlong when Force Freeze was able to cut into Giant Ryan’s advantage.

Bottom line: I worry that Force Freeze won’t be able to keep pace early. Thus, he’ll far behind, and may even have to take dirt for the first time; not exactly something that will bode well for his chances here.

#7 AMAZOMBIE (5-1) – 5 year old gelding (Mid)

Aside from coming up empty in the Triple Bend Handicap at Hollywood Park in April, Amazombie has been a model of consistency this year. Lately, he has been running just as well as he has all year, coming off a sharp (although it was pace-aided) victory in the Ancient Title. He isn’t a true closer that needs to be very far back, he’s got tactical speed, so he may not need such a meltdown to make up ground in the stretch.

Bottom line: If you’re playing Amazombie, it’s because you don’t particularly believe in the speed, and conclude that he’ll sit a nice trip not hard behind. Amazombie has never shipped out of California so he may be one to keep an eye on in the post parade.

#8 BIG DRAMA (5/2) – 5 year old horse (Speed/Stalk)

Last year’s winner has one race (which was little more than a public workout) since January. We all know how wonderful this guy can be when he’s at the top of his game, but there’s little reason to believe that Big Drama will return to his peak form off of workouts alone.

Bottom line: David Fawkes may be a nice trainer and all, but who could be expected to coax a top performance out of a horse who’s had just one race in 10 months? Colossal underlay if he’s anywhere near his 5/2 morning line.

#9 APRIORITY (30-1) – 4 year old colt (Stalk/Mid)

Apriority had his coming out party over the winter, particularly in the Sunshine Millions sprint where he ran a brilliant second to Amazombie. He maintained this form until the summer, when he fell sick and was less than 100% in the Vanderbilt. He also has a valid excuse in the Vosburgh, having been a part of that hazardous start that took him out of his game.

Bottom line: Based on his form from earlier in the year, Apriority would merit a long look. If you’re willing to overlook his last two races, as a forgiving horseplayer is encouraged to, he’s quite the overlay.

View the Hello Race Fans team’s Friday picks.
View the Hello Race Fans team’s Saturday picks.

Friday’s scoring sheet:

Saturday’s scoring sheet:

Churchill Downs — Friday — Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic — Race 10, post time 7:30 ET

ROYAL DELTA clearly needed the first race at Saratoga in the CCA Oaks, and she beat IT’S TRICKY and PLUM PRETTY to assert herself as the tepid favorite of the Three-Year-Old Filly Divison when winning the Alabama. She took on the elders in her most recent in the Beldame, a clear-cut second to Havre de Grace. Perhaps she moved too quickly or perhaps trainer Mott saw this race as a disposable prep. However, her trainer has won many a race under the twin spires and she’s reportedly been working well in the mornings. A deserving and logical pick to win.

PLUM PRETTY came on to the national stage when she won both the Sunland Park Oaks by a pole and the Kentucky Oaks after that. Most recently, she won the Cotillion last time out over fellow star sophomore IT’S TRICKY. Her only time off the board came three starts back in the Alabama, behind both IT’S TRICKY and ROYAL DELTA. The works and the spacing seem fine, but I questioned whether or not she was on the downside before the Cotillion. She won’t have things as plum pretty this time around, however.

ULTRA BLEND (8/1) traded decisions over the summer in Southern California with 3 y/o Zazu, beating the sophomore at Del Mar and being second over the Santa Anita dirt. An honest hard tryer who has hit the board in twenty-two of twenty-four career starts, she’s danced all the dances on the West Coast and is that region’s best hope for taking the top prize. The third place finisher from the last race won a G2 at Keeneland.

Selections:
#6 ROYAL DELTA (5/2)
#8 PLUM PRETTY (2/1)
#7 ULTRA BLEND (8/1)

Longshot:
If Ask the Moon and Plum Pretty get into a wild speed duel on the front end, it will set things up for #2 PACHATTACK (12/1). She is a solid synthetic horse who answered the dirt question two back in the Personal Ensign. The betting attention will likely focus on the three sophomores and she could go off at better than 20-1.

Churchill Downs — Saturday –Race 7, Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile — post time 4:01 ET

Aside from the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby, CALEB’S POSSE has cashed a check in every race this year on his barnstorming tour. A winner around two turns in the G3 Ohio Derby and around one turn in the G1 Kings’ Bishop, he last time checked in with a third in the Indiana Derby when chasing a slow pace. Hoosier is a quirky track and perhaps he didn’t like it. And as seen at Saratoga, his best game is closing off a pace, which he’ll get today.

IRREFUTABLE took advantage of the pace meltdown in the Ancient Title to close and be second behind an honest California sprinter in Amazombie. Trained by Bob Baffert (who also has THE FACTOR), he was a very creditable second to G1 winner and Sprint contender Giant Ryan in Miami. If you discard the race on Haskell Day against his natural pace style, you’ll find a closing sprinter who rarely misfires. Well worth considering.

Once upon a time TRES BORRACHOES was a speedster who had failing form. Then he was taken off the pace in the San Diego Handicap and won. Since then, he had a disappointing run in the Pacific Classic and tried again to be the speed in the Goodwood. The speed experiment failed, so maybe they take him back off the pace. With the amount of speed signed up, doing that would be most advantageous. While he’s never won on dirt, he’s also spent most of his career on the synthetics. If Rosario takes him off the pace he’s got a puncher’s chance.

SELECTIONS:

#8 CALEB’S POSSE (5/1)
#6 IRREFUTABLE (12/1)
#4 TRES BORRACHOES (30/1)

Longshot: Given that IRREFUTABLE and TRES BORRACHOES are double digits on the morning line and the latter is the longest price, I think my work here is done.

Belmont Race 7 – Jamaica Handicap (G1)  – 9F (Post time: 4:13 ET)

If #6 BRILLIANT SPEED (9/5) runs anything close to his last race in the Saranac, he’ll win for fun. He’s never been off the board in six starts on turf and this will be his third race off the layoff.  He’s been working tremendously since the Saranac win and even a slight regression could win this.  I have no idea why #1 CASINO HOST (2-1) is second choice, with only a maiden win to his credit.  While he’ll appreciate the lesser competition, with no Banned, Air Support or Treasure Beach in the field, he’s still lengths behind BRILLIANT SPEED on Thorograph figures.

The wiseguy horse looks to be #4 SEAL COVE (12-1) off three wins on turf and the fact that jockey Javier Castellano sticks with him after a lackluster run in the Saranac.  While he’s got the fastest late speed figures on Brisnet, he can’t seem to get past running a 5 ½ on Throrograph.  Granted, he’s chased slow paces in his last two races and will likely be at the mercy of such a pace again, even with #2 RUSTLER HUSTLER (15-1), #7 TOP SURPRISE (5-1) and even possibly CASINO HOST dueling up front.

Even though he’s making a big step up in class and the first time he’ll be going nine furlongs, TOP SURPRISE looks very live in this spot.  I think he’ll float up a bit from his 5-1 morning line odds, and his Thorograph figures are a bit quicker than SEAL COVE’s.  The one negative is that he’s coming in off a 22-day turnaround, but he could get first run on the leaders and possibly hold off the closing kick of BRILLIANT SPEED.

I’m going to watch the board on #5 WESTERN ARISTOCRAT (10-1). It’s always tough to gauge how Europeans will run when they first come to the U.S. While he could jump up and win with the addition of Lasix, he really hasn’t faced much in the U.K. and he finished seventh of ten in his only try in stakes company.  I have a feeling he ends up an underlay, but anywhere around his morning line odds may offer some value.

Keeneland Race 7 – First Lady Stakes (G1) – 8F (Post time: 4:37 ET)

How is it that #3 DAVERON (9/2) offers value every time she runs?  Off at 9/2 in her last two races, each of which she won impressively, somehow she ended up at that price again.  She has done absolutely nothing wrong since moving to the Graham Motion barn last year and is undefeated in three races in 2011.  This is a deep field, so even though I think her odds will drop a bit, she’s still the most likely winner, and I’ll be happy with anything over 5/2. With #8 WASTED TEARS (8/1) and #7 C.S. SILK (8/1) winging it up front, the pace should set up perfectly for DAVERON.

I’ll play her with the horse that’s pretty much made my year at the windows in #12 NEVER RETREAT (6-1). She does draw a horrible post, and could be hung very wide going into the first turn.  You’ll see in her past performances that her worst races have come when drawn outside. With any other jockey, I’d be more concerned, but Julian Leparoux should be able to get over quickly and sit a good trip behind the dueling leaders.

Don’t be surprised if Team Valor runs 1-2 with #10 GYPSY’S WARNING (10-1) in the mix.  She hasn’t run anywhere near her performance in the Matriarch at Hollywood Park last November, but she also hasn’t caught a firm turf course in three races this year.  She’s another who will benefit from the expected hot pace up front and offers tremendous value anywhere near her morning line odds.

#9 THEYSKENS’ THEORY (4-1) will likely take a lot of money after just losing to Winter Memories in the Garden City after looking like a winner at the eighth pole.  I’m going to guess she bounces off that huge effort, and think she’s up against it facing older fillies and mares.  The likely favorite will be #6 TOGETHER (7/2), who ships over for Aiden O’Brien after running very well in stakes company in Europe.  Again, she’s a three year-old facing older, and O’Brien’s record with shippers prior to Cape Blanco and Treasure Beach’s grade one wins this year was pretty poor.

Keeneland Race 9 – Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) – 8F (Post time: 5:45 ET)

#7 WISE DAN (12-1) offers incredible value at even half his morning line odds. His win in the Firecracker at Churchill was a breakout performance that signaled that a mile on turf is exactly what this horse has wanted to do.  With  confirmed frontrunners #2 SIDNEY’S CANDY (3-1) and  #8 GET STORMY (5-1) ensuring a hot pace up front, WISE DAN should absolutely sit the perfect trip and get first run on that pair, who I’m guessing will knock each other out early in the race and likely not hit the board.

The two I’ll play with WISE DAN are #3 DANCE AND DANCE (8/1) and #6 SOCIETY’S CHAIRMAN (8/1).  DANCE AND DANCE had so much trouble every step of the way in the Woodbine Mile; the fact that he finished less than two lengths behind the winner is incredible.  He broke last, was stuck behind horses for the entire race and made an incredible run weaving through horses in the stretch only to get blocked again.  Jockey Jamie Spencer comes back to ride him on Saturday, and the horse will absolutely relish the fact that he’s only got seven horses to contend with, rather than the fields of 18, 19 and 28 that he’s been running against in Europe.

SOCIETY’S CHAIRMAN doesn’t win a lot, but is always in the mix. He’s hit the board in 12 of 15 races at the distance and five of six races at Keeneland. Another who will benefit from the quick pace up front, he’ll be running late as he did when finishing second in this race last year at 18-1.  Coming in with almost identical form to last year, he’ll offer a lot of value with SIDNEY’S CANDY, #5 GIO PONTI (5/2) and ZOFFANY (3-1), another Euro invader from the O’Brien barn in the mix.

My quick pick in the Woodford (Keeneland race 5) is GREAT MILLS.  Two races back at the distance Leparoux finally got the horse to rate a bit and win. With so much speed signed on, I’ll look for him to use those same tactics again. I also gave a quick look at the two-year-old races tomorrow. In the Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland I’ll go with SHARED PROPERTY and in the Champagne I’m taking ALPHA.  I’ll be out at Belmont on Saturday posting picks and photos to Twitter, so if you’re out be sure to stop and say hi. Best of luck with all your wagers.    

Perhaps the most interesting, and best betting races, will be held in Paris, France at historic Longchamp racecourse. The main attraction is the Group 1 (European equivalent to Grade 1)  Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will 16 entries (as compared with only 6 entries for the Jockey Club Gold Cup).

Here’s quick run down of some the more interesting stakes races:

Hoosier Park Race 11 – Grade 2 Indiana Oaks ($200K) – 8.5 furlongs (5:19 Post Time)

Bob Baffert’s #6 A Z Warrior (Even) appears the legitimate favorite in the small field. Most intriguing to me is Calder shipper #2 NASTY RUMOR (5-1). NASTY RUMOR is in good form while A Z WARRIOR hasn’t won since last year’s G.1 Frizette at Belmont.

Hoosier Park Race 12 – Grade 2 Indiana Derby ($500K) – 8.5 furlongs (6:15 Post Time)

The Derby is a competitive race headlined by Preakness winner #1a SHACKELFORD (9/5). Lots of directions one could go if you don’t want to play the chalk, but you certainly can’t discount the hard charging # 6 CALEB’s POSSE (2-1) who comes in off a thrilling victory by a nose over UNCLE MO in the G.1 King’s Bishop.

Belmont Park Race 5 – G.1 Flower Bowl Invitational ($500K) – 10 furlongs (2:47pm ET)

One of the best fields on the card is assembled for the Flower Bowl. Why this race isn’t part of the Pick 6 as opposed to the 4-horse Kelso Stakes is a good question. Be that as it may, there is still a clear standout in this field, #8 STACELITA (6/5). She won the G.1 Beverly D impressively and Ramon Dominguez sticks with her over contender #4 ARUNA (5-1). Another major contender includes #1 DELUXE (3-1) in her 2nd start of  the year and 2nd start in the U.S. – expecting a big effort. Also, #3 EMERALD BEECH (6-1) is coming off a win on soft turf and is trained by well-regarded trainer Jonathan Sheppard and ridden by Alex Solis – she may be the value of the race.

Belmont Park Race 6 – G.1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic ($500K) – 12 furlongs (3:22 ET)

#1 CAPE BLANCO (4/5) is 2 for 2 in the US and looks like he’s got a great chance to be 3 for 3 after Saturday. #5 WINCHESTER (2-1) should also take a lot a money. If you’re looking for value, #2 TEAKS NORTH (8-1) is routinely overlooked in the pools and has a penchant for winning at big odds. But does he have the class & talent to beat CAPE BLANCO and WINCHESTER?

Belmont Park Race 7 – G.1 Vosburgh ($350K) – 6 furlongs (3:57 ET)

With the scratch of BIG DRAMA, #8 TRAPPE SHOT (9/5) should go to post as the deserving favorite. I really like his chances, but #1 FORCE FREEZE was listed at an incredible 20-1 on the morning line. Based on his prep in the Teddy Drone, I’d say he’s got a chance to win as does #4 EUROEARS (4-1). If the track is wet, #5 GIANT RYAN (12-1) is worth a look. Heck, with a 5 race win streak, he’s probably worth consideration wet or dry.

Belmont Park Race 8 – Kelso Hdcp ($200K) – 1 mile (4:33 ET)

This is #3 UNCLE MO’s 2nd start back after the injury that sidelined him just before the KY Derby. His last race was a near miss in the King’s Bishop. He should be better, but he’s also facing super sharp #2 JACKSON BEND (5/2). If MO gets pounded at the windows, JACKSON BEND is the play, but with such a short field, this isn’t a particularly good betting race regardless.

Belmont Park Race 9 – G.1 Beldame Invitational ($350K) – 9 furlongs (5:06)

Another small field with one overwhelming favorite in #5 HAVRE DE GRACE (3/5). Unless you think HDG is vulnerable (and I don’t) then this might be one to just watch. #2 ROYAL DELTA (9/5) is coming off a big win in the Alabama, but this is her 1st start against older horses.

Belmont Park Race 10 – G.1 Jockey Club Gold Cup ($750K) – 1o furlongs (5:46 ET)

Like ROYAL DELTA, #4 STAY THIRSTY (8/5) is another coming off a big win at Saratoga (The Travers in this case) and is racing against older horses for the 1st time. #1 FLAT OUT (7/5) is part of a coupled entry with #1a BIRDRUN and ran a credible 2nd behind HAVRE DE GRACE in the Woodward. #5 DROSSELMEYER (6-1) has run well at Belmont and returns to the main track after trying 1 and a half miles on the turf in the Sword Dancer – could surprise at a price.

Santa Anita Race 5 – G.1 Norfolk Stakes ($250K) – 8.5 furlongs (6:10 ET)

Looks like a two-horse race with #5 DRILL and #4 CREATIVE CAUSE. CREATIVE CAUSE may be able to turn the tables in DRILL in their first start going two turns. X factor could be #2 LOUKAS in his 1st start in the US and 1st start on Lasix with the crafty Patrick Valenzuela at the reins.

Santa Anita Race 6 – G.1 Lady’s Secret ($250K) 8.5 furlongs (6:43 ET)

#1 BLIND LUCK goes after a race that the great ZENYATTA owned for years. BLIND LUCK is the talent of the field, but wondering if #3 ASK THE MOON will try to steal it on the front by getting out early and setting a slow pace. I’ll watch the tote and see if she goes off at a price.

Santa Anita Race 7 – G.1 Goodwood ($250K) – 9 furlongs (7:16 ET)

Interesting cast of characters with Pacific Classic winner #1 ACCLAMATION, Haskell Invitational winner #2 COIL, and Santa Anita Handicap winner #8 GAME ON DUDE. GAME ON DUDE’s record at the track is a positive sign and thinking he’ll track ACCLAMATION and get first run.

Santa Anita Race 10 – Yellow Ribbon ($250K) – 10 furlongs (8:48 ET)

A nice wrap up as this is probably the best betting race of the day of all the stakes. You could make a case for most of the 9 horses entered so I would demand value before making any bets. #3 DUBAWI HEIGHTS should get a favorable pace setup and seems to be in great form. She’s my pick, but lightly raced #9 MEDAGLIA D’ AMOUR might give a breakout performance. #7 HARMONIOUS is a personal favorite, but I’m waiting on her to reach her full potential.

If you’re at Belmont tomorrow, look up WirePlayers contributor Derek Brown. If it’s raining he’ll be taking shelter; if it’s not raining, he’ll be making it rain!