Preakness favorite BODEMEISTER (courtesy Jamie McDiarmid)

Neither event is better or worse than the other, just different. At the Derby you dress to impress because you never know who you might see; at the Preakness you dress for comfort because you never know where you might pass out (and if it’s near the barn area you don’t want to get horse poop on your new suit).

(courtesy Jamie McDiarmid)

As for the race itself, I have a hard time getting past I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, BODEMEISTER, WENT THE DAY WELL, and CREATIVE CAUSE, 4 of the top 5 finishers in the Kentucky Derby. #9 I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (5/2) certainly wasn’t a fluke Derby winner and could have a nice stalking trip once again. #5 WENT THE DAY WELL (6-1) finished strong in the Derby and may be a serious threat to win with a clean trip. However, #7 BODEMEISTER (8/5) looms as the most likely winner due to his raw talent, high cruising speed, and the lack of early pace challengers. In fact, we could see a repeat of Shackelford’s front-running Preakness victory from last year.

(courtesy Jamie McDiarmid)

Of the 11 entrants, there’s 5 ‘new shooters’ that did not race in the Derby. While I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them crash the superfecta or trifecta, I don’t see any serious win contenders. I plan to take a strong stand with BODEMEISTER on top of trifectas and superfectas, while using I’LL HAVE ANOTHER and WENT THE DAY WELL more sparingly. Then go deep underneath in the 3rd and 4th positions hoping to catch some bombs at the bottom of tri and super.

Go Bodie Go!

[Special thanks to Jamie McDiarmid from Audley Farm for sending us the great pictures of BODEMEISTER at Pimlico prepping for the big race.]

Uncertainty makes for excitement, and I gotta feeling this will be one of the most exciting Kentucky Derby’s we’ve seen in years (aided by the potential for some some HUGE exotic payouts).

But which horse is going to win? As you can tell below, opinions vary (see everyone’s entire ballots here).

For me, I’m torn between Bodemeister and Gemologist. My heart belongs to Bode, but my gut says Gemologist. Gemologist is ultra consistent with two wins at Churchill and the look of a horse that just doesn’t like to lose. But Bodemiester could be a flat out freak; the question is whether he’s ready to freak right now. For the sake of my friends at Audley Farm and my pride in the Old Dominion, I hope so. One thing’s for certain, I’ll be rooting hard for Bodemeister to make history!

I can’t say enough about the people who volunteered their time and expertise to be part of our Derby Dozen panel; many thanks!
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Crystal Conway

Arkansas Derby winner BODEMEISTER is considered by some to be a California horse. After all he’s trained at Santa Anita by Mr California-cool himself, Bob Baffert. But BODEMEISTER is a Virginia bred; raised at Audley Farm, a picturesque equine complex tucked away in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains; and he has a big shot to wear the roses next Saturday evening.

In a testament to his talent, BODEMEISTER may go off as the post time favorite next Saturday despite the fact no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two year old. That’s a curious statistic, but I’m more intrigued by UNTOUCHED TALENT, the dam of BODEMEISTER that produced a Grade 1 winner and Kentucky Derby contender with her first foal to reach the track. I visited Berryville, Virginia’s Audley Farm to get a look for myself at this historic property and their previously unknown broodmare UNTOUCHED TALENT.

UNTOUCHED TALENT (standing)

First some history: located 60 miles outside Washington DC and a stone’s throw from the Shenandoah river, Audley Farm goes back over 250 years. It was the home of Nellie Custis, the granddaughter of Martha Washington who was taken in by George Washington when Nellie’s father died while she was young. When George Washington served as President in New York City and Philadelphia, Nellie was there to help the first family entertain guests. Later in life Nellie lived at Audley Farm in a house that remains the centerpiece of the property to this day.

Nellie Custis House at Audley Farm

Audley’s Equine Manager, Jamie Mcdiarmid, was kind enough to take me on a tour of the property. It’s a vast 2,500 acre farm with 1,000 acres dedicated to equine facilities. In keeping with the farm’s philosophy of making best use of the land, the remainder of the acreage is used for raising high-quality Angus cattle and selling hay and firewood. It makes for smart business too, operating a Thoroughbred breeding facility of this nature is capital intensive, risky, and takes deep pockets. When breaking even is considered a good year, success must be measured in many ways.

Despite the diversification, you can tell immediately from Jamie’s knowledge and enthusiasm that Thoroughbreds are their core business and their passion. Jamie’s been around horses his entire life; his father was a horse veterinarian and Jamie managed Thoroughbred farms in England before taking the job at Audley 13 years ago.

Audley Farm Equine Manager Jamie Mcdiarmid

German citizen Hubertus Liebrecht purchased Audley in 1978 and his family has maintained ownership of the vast property, and a commitment to breeding Thoroughbreds, after his death in 1991. They’ve honored the property’s history by fully renovating the Nellie Custis house and the stable where the 1919 Triple Crown winner SIR BARTON stood as stallion at Audley from 1922 to 1933. It’s clear from the start this is an operation that does things the right way for the right reasons.

Statue of SIR BARTON in front of his old stable at Audley Farm

While the Audley property was certainly breathtaking, the star of the tour was BODEMEISTER’s dam UNTOUCHED TALENT. She’s an attractive, well-bred Thoroughbred sired by STORM CAT out of the A.P. INDY mare PARADE QUEEN. UNTOUCHED TALENT had a short but stellar racing career in 2006 as a two-year old with two wins and two seconds in four races, all stakes. She was purchased for $1.4 million as a broodmare while in foal to UNBRIDLED SONG. Unfortunately, that foal was euthanized after sustaining an injury prior to getting to the track. Sired by EMPIRE MAKER, BODEMEISTER was the second foal by UNTOUCHED TALENT. It’s obviously a notable accomplishment for a broodmare to produce a Grade 1 winner with her first foal to race.

UNTOUCHED TALENT with weanling

When we reached her paddock, by her side laying in the grass was a young weanling sired by TIZNOW. She clearly loved being petted on the head and melted my heart as she followed me around the pasture like a puppy dog. Jamie remarked, “she’s taking a liking to you mate.” Given her classy pedigree, Jamie mentioned that the farm may elect to keep her as a future broodmare rather than selling her as a yearling next year.

TIZNOW weanling out of UNTOUCHED TALENT

Jamie next showed me a yearling out of UNTOUCHED TALENT, this one sired by SMART STRIKE. And a strikingly beautiful filly she was. Jamie mentioned she’s growing fast and will likely be much bigger come September when scheduled for Keeneland’s yearling sales. Definitely a horse to watch.

SMART STRIKE Yearling out of UNTOUCHED TALENT

I asked Jamie what BODEMEISTER was like during his time on the farm as a yearling: “Pretty chill, a really, really cool horse” he responded. It’s a character trait that may help BODEMEISTER deal with the massive crowds and hoopla at Churchill Downs next week. I wondered why BODEMEISTER went unraced at age 2 and Jamie mentioned he was quite small as a yearling and still had a lot of growing to do. He speculated that he might have been a tad immature and recalled Baffert mentioning in an interview that BODEMEISTER wasn’t quite ready for last year’s Del Mar meet.

In the middle of Audley Farm's 2,500 acres

Prior to BODEMEISTER, Audley was known for producing well-bred Thoroughbreds, but no superstars. Their biggest horse to date was MANDY’S GOLD, winner of the Grade 1 Ruffian, the 2002 Virginia Horse of the Year, and 5^th in the 2002 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (won by AZERI). Jamie remarked “things have been quiet around here for a while, but the past few weeks have been hectic” due to the attention garnered by BODEMEISTER.

A turf track once used for training

Momentum is a crazy thing, so perhaps Audley Farm is about to go on a major roll. Jamie was also pleased with ROMAN CLASSIC, a colt owned by the farm and trained by Will Phipps that won a Maiden Separate Weight in impressive fashion as a first time starter last Wednesday at Tampa Bay Downs.

Retired broodmares relaxing at Audley Farm

As it was with Ned Evans’ Spring Hill Farm near Warrenton, Va, and still is with Joe Allbritton’s Lazy Lane Farm in Upperville, Va, Audley Farm’s goal is to produce world-class race horses. In fact, there’s a friendly rivalry among the farms’ Equine Managers: earlier this year in a Maiden race at Santa Anita BODEMEISTER faced fellow Virginia bred STIRRED UP. Said Jamie, “All I cared about was BODEMEISTER not losing to that horse from Lazy Lane. And he crushed him!”

Virginia bred Kentucky Derby Winners

I always wondered if breeders of horses entered in the Kentucky Derby enjoyed any special perks or received bonus money if the horse won the race. Jamie assured me they received nothing. But a contingent from Audley Farm is planning to be at Churchill Downs Saturday, rooting for BODEMEISTER just the same.

The Mcdiarmids - ready to hit Churchill Downs

After touring Audley, Jamie suggested I check out a Mexican restaurant in downtown Berryville where you could bet the races (a future story perhaps). After parking I tried feeding a quarter into the meter but it wouldn’t work. Thinking the damn thing was broken I took a closer  inspection to find the meter only took pennies. You heard me, pennies!

Bring your pennies to Berryville, Va!

Then I recalled a conversation with Jamie back at the farm in which he observed that a place like Audley is more likely to be found in Lexington, Kentucky than Clarke County, Virginia. True enough, but more than that, Audley is from a different time, a time when horses were front and center in people’s daily lives, and you could actually buy something for a penny.

The defection of Uncle Mo just prior to last year’s Derby meant a wide open field with no clear cut favorite. Animal Kingdom won impressively at over 20-1, but some argue the field he beat lacked depth, if not talent. This year’s field is seemingly wide open, but the talent level on the whole seems much higher. Nonetheless, a direct comparison can be made to WENT THE DAY WELL. He has the same ownership (Team Valor), trainer (Graham Motion), and jockey (Johnny Velasquez) as Animal Kingdom. What’s more, both horses earned their way into the Derby off winning Turfway Park’s Spiral Stakes. Could a Team Valor horse win off prepping on polytrack two years in a row?

In both 2010 and 2009 the sloppy track conditions seemed to benefit Super Saver and Mine That Bird respectively as they received savvy, ground saving trips under Calvin Borel (btw, lookout for EL PADRINO if the track is sloppy next week, he’s a mudder!). The 2008 Derby is not particularly useful either this year as Big Brown was clearly dominant with the only question being whether or not he could overcome post position 20.

That brings us to 2007 and Derby winner Street Sense. Both Street Sense and HANSEN won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. Both also used Keeneland’s Toyota Blue Grass as their last Derby prep race and each finished 2nd as the favorite. A key difference between them is running style – Street Sense was a closer while HANSEN always runs on or near the lead. Given the depth of the 2012 field and HANSEN’s running style and predicted pace scenario, he’s likely to go off higher than Street Sense did in 2007 as the 5-1 favorite.

Winning the Blue Grass has never been a sure path to the Derby winner’s circle. The last horse to win both was Strike The Gold in 1991. That’s not a good sign for 2012 Blue Grass winner DULLAHAN, but going back to 1991 is a blink of the eye compared to 1882.

The 2007 3rd place finisher Curlin resembles BODEMEISTER as both entered the Derby off impressive wins in the Arkansas Derby and neither raced until age 3. What’s notable is that the last horse to win the Derby without racing at age 2 was in 1882 when Apollo won the 8th overall running of Derby (back when the race was contested at 1 and a half miles). Curlin couldn’t overcome 125 years of history, but he did finish 3rd behind Hard Spun and went on to beat Street Sense two weeks later in one of the most exciting finishes in Preakness history.

An intriguing comparison can be found in the 2006 Kentucky Derby won by Barbaro. There were no clear cut favorites in the seemingly deep competitive field as only 3 of the 20 entrants were less than 8-1 at post time. The lukewarm favorite was 5-1 Sweetnorthernsaint (Sam Bowie to Barbaro’s Michael Jordan if you will) and the 2nd choice winner (Barbaro, of course) was over 6-1; a pure gift to his backers no doubt! If you had wheeled him in the exacta for $2 w/all it would have cost you $38 and paid nearly $600 (with 30-1 Bluegrass Cat finishing 2nd), whereas betting that same $38 to win would’ve returned less than half that amount (about $270.00).

As it turned out there was only one great horse in that race, but even though he was an undefeated 5 for 5 going in, few predicted such dominance prior to the Derby (or a potential for greatness that seemed all too obvious just moments later). This year there’s also an undefeated colt entered, Wood Memorial champ GEMOLOGIST. While both Barbaro and GEMOLOGIST were (or are) a perfect 5 for 5 entering the Derby, they were (or are) dismissed by some as untested without a visually impressive race. Barbaro had to gut out a win in the Florida Derby over Sharp Humor and GEMOLOGIST had to out game ALPHA in the stretch of the Wood.

Speaking of ALPHA’s 2nd place finish in the Wood (despite encountering some trouble), Funny Cide won the 2003 Derby at 14-1 after finishing second to Empire Maker in the Wood with a similarly troubled trip. What about that, huh?

Getting back to Barbaro, his lack of a gaudy Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby lead to Sweetnorthernsaint being the favorite off a dominant 9 and a half length victory the Illinois Derby. Likewise, BODEMEISTER might be post time favorite based on his 9 and a half length victory in the Arkansas Derby (you gotta love the BSF devotees).

Soooooo, is BODEMEISTER this year’s Curlin or Apollo? Is ALPHA Funny Cide? Is GEMOLOGIST Barbaro? Is HANSEN Street Sense? Is WENT THE DAY WELL Animal Kingdom? Is DULLAHAN Strike The Gold.

Dunno, but i did write about this year’s Kentucky Derby contenders without mentioning CREATIVE CAUSE or UNION RAGS, but rather Sam Bowie. That’s gotta mean something . . .

Saturday’s Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse is one of the last major prep races prior to the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Despite its Grade I status, few winners of the Blue Grass have gone on to actually win the Kentucky Derby (the most recent was Strike The Gold in 1991!). Since Keeneland installed its synthetic surface (Polytrack) after the 2006 spring meet the Blue Grass has produced a series of long shot winners with strong turf pedigrees yet little chance of winning the Derby. Prior to 2007 wasn’t much better as Keeneland’s dirt track tended to favor one-dimensional speed horses.

With two-year old Juvenile Champion Hansen entered along with 12 mostly capable challengers this year’s Blue Grass figures to have a much greater impact on the Derby outcome.

Keeneland Race 11 – G.1 Blue Grass Stakes ($750K) – 1 and 1/8 Miles  – 6:18 Post

PP

1       HEAVY BREATHING  (12-1)

2      GUNG HO  (30-1)

3       PROSPECTIVE  (10-1)

4       HANSEN (6/5)

5       RUSSIAN GREEK  (50-1)

6       DULLAHAN  (6-1)

7       POLITICALLYCORRECT (30-1)

8      MIDNIGHT CROONER (15-1)

9       HOLY CANDY (30-1)

10     HOWE GREAT (6-1)

11      EVER SO LUCKY (12-1)

12     HERO OF ORDER (12-1)

13     SCATMAN (12-1)

#4 Hansen’s the deserving 6/5 morning line favorite and could go off at less than even money. It’s hard to find fault with his performances to date and he’s a perfect 2 or 2 on polytrack. In truth, we simply don’t know how good Hansen really is or can be in the future. He’s never raced 9 furlongs before and the Blue Grass field features better horses than those he manhandled at Aqueduct in the Gotham Stakes. Hansen may also face early pace pressure from the likes of Scatman, Heavy Breathing, Midnight Crooner, or even Howe Great, that compromise his ability to hold off his foes at the wire.

The conundrum, for me at least, is that once you get beyond Hansen there’s 5 to 10 other horses that could conceivably win. Howe Great looked stellar winning the Palm Beach Stakes and his turf form should transfer well to Keeneland’s polytrack. Dullahan was 2nd to Howe Great in the Palm Beach, but he’s was coming off a long layoff. He should improve in his 2nd race back and he’s 1 for 1 on Keeneland’s main track.

Pedigree handicappers will note that horses sired by Kitten’s Joy have fared well at Keeneland so 30-1 shots #2 Gung Ho and #7 Politicallycorrect cannot be completely ignored. Along the same lines, Scat Daddy has proven a potent sire in his early stud career as evidenced by Daddy Long Legs’ recent victory in the UAE Derby (on a synthetic track) and Daddy Nose Best’s wins in the El Camino Real (on a synthetic track) and the Sunland Derby. #13 Scatman is another by Scat Daddy; he has a win at Keeneland and may be dangerous despite a poor post draw.

The entry that most intrigues me is #3 Prospective. He’s consistently competitive and enters the race in fine form after a game win the Tampa Bay Derby. Like Hansen, he’s a perfect 2 for 2 on synthetic tracks, though his poorest finish came in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when finishing last in a race won by Hansen. At 10-1 on the morning line, his odds could approach 15-1 or higher by post time. Along with #6 Dullahan, he’ll be stalking the pace. Both have a puncher’s chance to upset Hansen, but Prospective should offer the most value if nothing else.

Without a doubt, the most likely winner is Hansen. However, at odds-on you can’t bet him to win and expect much money in return and it appears foolish to take a strong stand against him. Thankfully there is a bet known as the dime superfecta, perhaps the best wager in horse racing. My strategy will be to key Hansen on top; use Prospective, Dullahan, Howe Great, and Scatman in the 2nd position; use those same horses with Heavy Breathing, Gung Ho, Politicallycorrect, Midnight Crooner, Holy Candy, and Ever So Lucky in 3rd position; and the same 10 horses in 4th position. A 10 cent base bet will cost me $28.80, but a similar strategy paid off at $175 in Hansen’s odds on win in the Gotham as compared to a $54 payout on a $30 win bet. Oh yeah, I’ll make a small wager on Prospective to win and with Hansen in an exacta just in case he lands that right hook.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

You could say that the lack of 1 or 2 clear standouts is a sign of mediocrity. I respectfully disagree. I believe it reflects a depth of talent and quality we don’t often see and which may produce a truly special horse – a gem if you will. It should also produce a terrific betting race – and by good betting race, I mean the opportunity to win a lot of money for a relatively small wager (yes, the Dime Super is your friend).

To paraphrase Sam Spade, Mrs. Munday didn’t raise any children dippy enough to make guesses about possible Triple Crown winners (considering we haven’t had one in 33 years). However, it’s likely this year’s Derby will feature a breakout performance by a remarkable horse; and at remarkably good odds (and large exotic payouts)!

But which horse? That is the question isn’t it.

Maybe “the Dozen” will help . . .

(PS – don’t sleep on the “also receiving votes” bin as there a few in there that could make some noise this Saturday)

Special thanks to our fearless Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Crystal Conway

Gulfstream Park Race 10 – Grade II Pan American Stakes ($150K) – 1 ½ Miles (Turf) – 5:35 (EDT) Post Time

Usually when thinking of turf racing at Gulfstream it’s about overflow fields and several also eligibles. Sadly the Pan American Stakes is the exception to the norm. The grade II race has only drawn a field of six. It can be further reduced to a match race between #1 NEWSDAD (9/5) and #2 SIMMARD (2-1) as they appear to outclass the rest of the field.

#3 HARRODS CREEK has not raced since December at Woodbine and trainer Bill Mott generally does not have his horses geared up first time off a layoff. A look back to last year off a similar layoff was his worst race of the year. This race appears to be a prep for another spot down the road.

#4 HAILSTONE (10-1) always tries, but never seems to get into the winners circle and the distance of 12 furlongs is another question. #6 CENTER DIVIDER (5-1) was beaten soundly by NEWSDAD and SIMMARD last time and a reversal of fortune is unlikely given the likely race dynamics. Looks like a toss up between NEWSDAD and SIMMARD; and personally, I like NEWSDAD to win.

Turfway Park Race 9 – Grade III Bourbonette Oaks ($100K) 1 Mile (Polytrack) – 5:12 (EDT) Post Time

The fillies will take to the track and try to bank some purse money toward the Kentucky Oaks. This race appears wide open with all the runners being lightly raced with numerous questions to answer. Todd Pletcher ships in #5 DANCING SOLO (4-1) and jockey Javier Castallano makes the trip to Kentucky with her. I like her in this spot because arguably her best race was last fall on Keeneland’s Polytrack. She hung in the stretch finishing third, but was beaten less than a length and had to travel farther than today’s race. Tough to get creative but I will take DANCING SOLO over the other logical contenders in #3 MORE THAN LOVE (9/5) and #4 IN LINGERIE (2-1). MORE THAN LOVE will be racing on a surface other than turf for the first time and IN LINGERIE has had some problems at the gate in both of her career starts.

Turfway Park Race 10 – Grade III Spiral Stakes ($500K) 1 1/8^th Miles (Polytrack) – 5:45 (EDT) Post Time

Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom started his run to the roses by winning this race last year. Back at it again this year is Graham Motion (trainer of Animal Kingdom) saddling #4 WENT THE DAY WELL (4-1). Even though he just broke his maiden three weeks ago, the horse has some ability including two 2^nd place finishes in Great Britain last fall. He’s run well on dirt and turf so we’ll see if he can handle the poly too. An interesting horse at a price is #1 RUSSIAN GREEK (10-1). He gets a huge rider change to Corey Nakatani and adds blinkers. RUSSIAN GREEK needs a solid pace up front to have a chance though, but #3 HEAVY BREATHING (3-1) and #12 HANDSOME MIKE (4-1) could provide it for him.

Sunday – Sunland Park Race 12 – Grade III Sunland Derby ($800K) – 1 1/8^th Miles – 7:45 (EDT) Post

Many may remember improbable, long shot Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird using this race as springboard in 2009. This year’s edition features a field of eight and some big time trainers shipping in Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Bob Baffert has two; Todd Pletcher and Steve Assmussen both have one. I like one that isn’t trained by them in #4 ISN’T HE CLEVER (4-1). He has perfect record over the track including a career high Beyer which is best of the group. Sunland generally favors speed and he has enough to be in the race early but does not need the lead to win. #1 CASTAWAY (2-1) won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn and should set the pace, but I’m not crazy that Baffert is running him here rather than in last week’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. #2 ENDER KNIEVEL (6-1) and #3 STIRRED UP (8-1) just broke their maidens and will need to improve off those races to have a chance. Finally, #6 DADDY NOSE BEST (3-1) has run on poly and turf, but is unproven over a fast dirt surface. At a short price I’ll leave him out.

Good Luck and follow us all weekend long on twitter @Wireplayers!

Last year the Spiral Stakes shook loose from the bonds of irrelevance when ANIMAL KINGDOM parlayed his win into a Kentucky Derby triumph. While only a Grade 3, and run over polytrack, the winner of the $500,000 purse is virtually guaranteed a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. With a full field of 12 all desperate for graded stakes earnings, this edition should end up as a great betting race.

 The Spiral Stakes also kicks off NBC Sports’ coverage of the Road to the Derby, and will air in glorious HD (as all racing should) from 5-6 pm Eastern.

Note: Morning Line odds were not posted at the time of writing.

1.  RUSSIAN GREEK – The winner of the ungraded California Derby was nowhere to be found last out when finishing fifth in the El Camino Real Derby. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer adds blinkers and Corey Nakatani takes over the mount from Aaron Gryder. He’ll take money at the windows but he’s light on speed figures and hasn’t beaten much in his three wins in Northern California. His pedigree suggests that Polytrack and longer distances are right up his alley, but just not sure he’s got the goods to win on Saturday.

2. RED JACK – Only a maiden win to his credit, which came over the Churchill Downs turf course last November. He has run once on Polytrack and didn’t show much.  This Exchange Rate colt looks hopelessly overmatched coming out of a third-place finish in claiming company.

3. HEAVY BREATHING – Most likely will end up as the favorite off two impressive wins at Gulfstream. He’s got the pedigree to love the distance and surface, and you can’t dispute how good Pletcher and Castellano are together. Nearly 40 percent of the time, they win every time. Normally a race like this would be a class test, and Gulfstream form doesn’t always carry to other tracks. But there are no world-beaters in this bunch, and my only concern is that he’s had things relatively easy sitting close to slow paces in his two races.

4. WENT THE DAY WELL – He may have the same connections as last year’s winner, but this colt lives on the other side of the class tracks. He’s run respectably in two maiden races at Gulfstream since shipping over from England, and he has the highest late pace figures in the field, according to Brisnet. Team Valor’s other derby hope, STATE OF PLAY, is scheduled to run in the Transylvania at Keeneland on April 6, so this feels like a “why the heck not” move to try and pick up some graded money for one of their lower-tier runners.

5. HOLIDAY PROMISE – Never discount the “other Pletcher” angle. Except in this case. This horse has chased far worse at Laurel and Aqueduct, with only a maiden win to his credit. His speed figures are moving in the right direction, and he has one of most underrated riders in the country with Junior Alvarado.  Unfortunately, that’s about all he’s got going for him and it’s going to take more for me to believe he has a chance on Saturday..

6. ALL SQUARED AWAY – Trainer Peter Miller called an audible and shipped this Bellamy Road gelding off a seventh-place finish in the El Camino Real Derby and a plodding second in an allowance race. He has respectable synthetic track form, but hard to get too excited about a horse that took five tries to win his maiden (and only) race, and only did so when left alone on an easy lead in a field of five.

7. ILL CONCIEVED – If you throw out his sprint races, his form looks pretty good. I really like the way he battled STATE OF PLAY in the John Battaglia Memorial, the local prep for this race. Distance is the question for me. His breeding certainly suggests sprinting, but trainer John Servis doesn’t spot his horses in stakes if he doesn’t think they have a legitimate chance. I really like the fact that this horse can run near the pace or close from the back. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets somewhat overlooked at the windows and could end up offering decent value for the win.

8. COACH ROYAL – Yet to win a race, he does have some upside as far as running respectably in turf routes. He adds blinkers, gets a new rider in Fernando Jara and makes his first start on Polytrack. It’s a lot to ask of this colt by Lemon Drop Kid. The fact is he’s run as many bad races as good. Having just run a pretty good race, I’m willing to bank on him throwing a clunker on Saturday.  On the off chance I’m wrong, I’ll hedge a few bets with him underneath.

9.TIZANEXPENSE – Came into the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds last month with two decent wins under his belt and was still overlooked at 23-1. The bettors were smart that day, as he was well beaten after a wide trip. His speed figures aren’t that much behind others in the field and trainer Mike Maker and jockey Victor Lebron win a lot of races at Turfway. A lot. As one of only a few horses in here to actually put two wins together, I wouldn’t be quick to discount his chances. He’ll also likely be overlooked in the shadow of his stablemate, MR PRANKSTER, so if the “other Maker” angle is a thing, this might be the time to play it.

10 MR PRANKSTER – Ran just awful in the Battaglia as the odds-on favorite. He came into that race with two decent wins over the Turfway surface, so his performance was certainly a head-scratcher. Those who play the bounce theory will be all over him on Saturday, and it’s hard to see him offering much value.  My theory is he wants nothing to do with nine furlongs, and his speed figures are average at best. He has more questions than answers with regard to his class, so I’ll be playing against him.

11. STEALCASE – Kind of an interesting longshot. Only one win to his credit and really didn’t run a step in the Gotham after breaking poorly. From a speed figure standpoint, he’s quicker than others and I’m intrigued by the bullet work on March 17, likely once he added blinkers. Jockey Rajiv Marragh is an excellent synthetic rider and this Lawyer Ron colt has a fair bit more upside than others. I have a feeling Marragh will keep him close to the pace, and if he’s allowed to get first run he could be a threat to win at a nice price.

12. HANDSOME MIKE – Another California shipper, but far and away the best of the contingent. He’s got by far the quickest early speed in the field, and should have ample time to work out a good trip from the outside post. Rider Joel Rosario is one of the best in the country, and this horse has faced significantly tougher company than the rest of the field.

SELECTIONS:

7. ILL CONCIEVED

11. STEELCASE

12. HANDSOME MIKE

3. HEAVY BREATHING

LONGSHOT: TIZANEXPENSE

Here’s the stretch run of the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes and what sold me on ILL CONCIEVED. I really like how the horse seemed to wake up at the eighth pole and just ended up on the wrong end of a head bob for second.

The biggest change is up top where CREATIVE CAUSE takes the honors despite UNION RAGS’ impressive performance in the Fountain of Youth. While each garnered four 1st place votes, it seems a few voters aren’t quite sold on ole UNION RAGS; especially our good friends in California. Is this the age old east coast vs. west coast bias?

I dunno, but I can’t recall a horse out of Dixie Union ever winning a race of any importance beyond 9 furlongs. There’s also money to be made capitalizing on the irrational exuberance of others; just ask any investor (e.g., gamblers who play the stock market). Stay tuned …

Special thanks to our friendly, dedicated, and knowledgeable Derby Dozen panel.
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz
Crystal Conway

Though it has a small field of 6, half the entrants in Sunday’s Palm Beach Stakes are out of the exceptional turf sire Kitten’s Joy. The race may also hold the winner of Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes (on April 14th) and a ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Team Valor and Graham Motion’s spectacular win in the 2011 Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom has them on everybody’s radar this year. It’s well deserved as they have another crop of promising 3 year old colts with State of Play; winner of last week’s John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, Lucky Chappy; heading to Dubai for the UAE Derby, and #1 HOWE GREAT; the 8/5 morning line favorite in Sunday’s Palm Beach Stakes.

Team Valor horses are typically very well-bred with solid turf pedigrees. Animal Kingdom could obviously handle dirt, but will HOWE GREAT?

Well, we’re getting ahead of ourselves as I’m not so sure Team Valor is even pointing him to the Derby. However, he would be a legitimate contender in the Blue Grass as it’s no secret turf horses do well on Keeneland’s polytrack. In fact, last year’s Blue Grass featured 3 horses coming out of the Palm Beach Stakes (the winner, Brilliant Speed, came out of another turf race, the Hallandale Stakes).

Another logical contender in the Palm Beach is #3 DULLAHAN (2-1), owned by Donegal Racing and trained by Dale Romans – the same connections of the talented turf runner Paddy O’ Prado. By the way, two years ago Paddy O’ Prado parlayed his 1st place finish in the 2010 Palm Beach Stakes into a 2nd in the Blue Grass before finishing 3rd in the Derby. He then went back on the grass and won 4 more graded stakes, to include the G. 1 Secretariat.

DULLAHAN hasn’t raced since his respectable 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race that has since produced 5 graded stakes winners: Hansen (G. 3 Gotham), Union Rags (G. 2 Fountain of Youth), Creative Cause (G. 2 San Felipe), Alpha (G. 3 Withers), Drill (G.2 San Vincente). A fairly amazing stat considering it’s only been just over 4 months since the Breeders’ Cup.

DULLAHAN will be a handful as will #5 COALPORT (3-1). By Kitten’s Joy, COALPORT has one win in four starts. He finished ahead of HOWE GREAT’s stable mate Lucky Chappy in the G. 3 Bourbon at age 2 before a disappointing, and troubled, 11th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. With HOWE GREAT and DULLAHAN figuring to get most of the attention at the windows, COALPORT, with Julien Leparoux riding, could get overlooked and go off higher than his 3-1 morning line odds.

Of course, turf races are highly dependent on pace and positioning and it looks like HOWE GREAT will get a comfortable and clean trip near the front along with #6 CSABA (6-1). They’ll both try to hold off DULLAHAN and COALPORT in the deep stretch.

So which will prevail: the BC Juvenile angle, the Team Valor/Graham Motion angle, or the Kitten’s Joy angle?

Well, Kitten’s Joy does have the numbers.

First things first, there’s two KY Derby prep Stakes (i.e., stakes for 3 year olds) on Saturday; the Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park.

Turfway Park

Race 10 – John Battaglia Memorial Stakes ($75K) – 8.5 furlongs  - 5:31 post  

With the scratch of #3 PHANTOM FURY, the Battaglia will only have five horses going to the gate. While #6 MR PRANKSTER is the slight 9/5 morning line favorite off a win in the WEBN Stakes, #4 STATE OF PLAY (2-1) catches my attention as he is from the 2011 Kentucky Derby winning connections of Team Valor and Graham Motion. The Battaglia is the local prep for the Spiral Stakes, the same race Animal Kingdom used to punch his Derby ticket. With only five betting interests and two short priced favorites, this may not be the best betting race to say the least.

Aqueduct

Race 10 – Grade 3 Gotham Stakes ($400K) – 8.5 furlongs – 5:02 post

Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes should offer better wagering opportunities, especially if you’re not buying Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner HANSEN (#12, 6/5) as a legitimate Derby contender. I’m not, which is why he’s not on my Road to the Roses stable (this has proven a tactical mistake as I don’t have a single Gotham entrant in my stable). However, HANSEN’s facing a drastically weaker field than he beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and there doesn’t appear to be any ‘Algorithms’ in this group.

I have no strong opinions on alternatives to HANSEN which means I probably won’t bet the race (ok, ok, I won’t bet “much” on the race). Intriguing possibilities for me are #1 MY ADONIS (5-1), #13 TIGER WALK (12-1) despite drawing a tough post, #5 MAAN (15-1), undefeated at 2 for 2 and stretching out, and long shot #2 FINNEGANS WAKE (20-1), trying dirt for the first time.

It’s worth noting that Aqueduct’s Saturday card also features the Grade II Top Flight Handicap and Grade III Tom Fool.

Race 5 – Grade 2 Top Flight Hdcp ($200K) – 8.5 furlongs – 2:42 post

The Top Flight features the return of #5 IT’S TRICKY (4/5) after finishing 2nd to Royal Delta in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic. If taking a short price after such a long layoff brings you pause, #2 DELIGHTFUL MARY (4-1) appears to be in good form. It’s another race with only 5 betting interests so this might be a good one to just watch.

Race 9 – Grade 3 Tom Fool Hdcp ($200K) – 6 furlongs – 4:34 post

The Tom Fool has Breeders’ Cup Mile winner CALEB’S POSSE (#6, 9/5) returning to the track. He’s a terrific racehorse and powerful closer, but probably won’t get a great pace to chase down and six furlongs may be a tad short. This race may be in CALIBRACHOA’s (#5, 2-1) wheelhouse. #4 EMCEE (5/2) is a lightly raced 4 year old facing stakes company for the first time, but he’s undefeated, gets a bit of weight break, and may have more upside and value.

Gulfstream Park

Race 3 – $75K AOC – 1 and 1/8 miles – 2:01 post

Saturday’s 3rd and 4th races at Gulfstream Park could be interesting for Derby watchers. In the 3rd, #5 HEAVY BREATHING (8/5) is the most promising Derby prospect due to winning his first race in impressive fashion and being sired by Giant’s Causeway. His pedigree indicates he won’t have a problem getting the Derby distance, but the lack of seasoning (his 1st and only race was on 8 Feb) is a concern.

Race 4 – $57K MSW – 8.5 furlongs – 2:29 post

In the 4th race Team Valor and Graham Motion have another contender in #1 WENT THE DAY WELL (5/2) as does Nick Zito with #8 TIZ YANKEE (3-1). An intriguing long shot is #4 STREET TALK’N (12-1). He has a solid pedigree (perhaps better suited to turf though), but was beaten a combined 40 lengths in his first two races. Getting blinkers first time may wake him up enough to crash the board, or even threaten to win, at a price.

Race 7 – $80K AOC – 1 mile – 3:53 post

And speaking of the KY Derby, the 7th race has two 2011 Derby starters returning to the track for the 1st time since last summer: #2 PANTS ON FIRE (3-1) and #3 DIALED IN (2-1). If the 2012 debuts of Animal Kingdom and Nehro were any indication, these two may put on quite a show.

Race 10 – Grade III Canadian Turf Stakes ($150K) – 1 mile  - 5:17 post

Gulfstream’s 10th race is headlined by the formidable #8 LITTLE MIKE (2-1). Given his for 5 for 6 record at Gulfstream, and 6 for 7 wins at the distance, the 2-1 morning line may be an overlay. I will note that despite #4 DATA LINK (6-1) having never won a stakes race, he’s a perfect 4 for 4 on firm turf and might, just might, surprise.

Santa Anita

Race 11 – Grade 1 Santa Anita Hdcp ($750K) – 1 and 1/4 miles – 8:35 pm (eastern)

Santa Anita’s “Big Cap” seems ripe for an upset. #2 ULTIMATE EAGLE (5/2) enters after after a 7 length romp in the G.2 Strub on 4 Feb, however, he’s unraced at the mile and a quarter distance.  #9 SETSUKO (4-1) lost last year’s eventful Santa Anita Handicap to Game On Dude by a nose, but he’s proven to like 10 furlongs and may offer better value. I wouldn’t stop there though, I may just play the Pick 6 (with a $63K carryover), which figures to have some fairly predictable legs, and go deep in the Big Cap hoping for a bomb.

So, for shits and grins, here’s my $2 Pick 6 ticket for roughly $100 – 9/2/4,10,11/5,7/1/2,3,4,3,7,9,10,12 - Bombs away!

Derby Future Wager Pool #2

And lastly, this weekend is Pool #2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. After an eye catching performance in the Fountain of Youth, I figure UNION RAGS (4-1) will take lots of dough and leave the field (aka, “all others”) north of 3-1 (good odds in my opinion). The pool closes 6pm eastern on Sunday so it’s worth checking the odds to see if there’s any enticing prices.

Good luck!

Race 11 – 8.5 furlongs (1 and 1/16 miles) – Post time 5:13 (eastern)

The biggest news today is the scratch of favorite #2 ALGORITHMS (8/5) due to a popped splint. It remains to be seen whether this injury will take him off the Derby trail completely. An interesting backstory is jockey Javier Castellano’s decision to ride ALGORITHMS over UNION RAGS (on whom he was the regular rider and guided to a 2nd place in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). It can be a tough decision when a jockey has the mount on several great horses in the same division, but this decision may be coming back to haunt Javy sooner than he could have anticipated.

The defection of ALGORITMS leaves a field of seven and will change the complexion of the race.  The greatest threats to win appear to be Todd Pletcher’s #5 DISCREET DANCER (3-1) and Michael Matz’s #7 UNION RAGS (2-1). DISCREET DANCER is 2 for 2 lifetime and will be trying both stakes company and 2 turns for the first time. He’s also a Florida bred which makes him, along with #3 FORT LOUDON (20-1), eligible for a $100K bonus if he wins.

Looking at the probable race dynamics it appears DISCREET DANCER will be the early speed and take the field as far as he can, which may be the finish line if he can set an easy pace. He could face early pace pressure from #4 CASUAL TRICK (8-1) and set things up from a fast closing UNION RAGS. A question of course being how sharp is UNION RAGS off the layoff since November 5th. Another question bettors must ask themselves is whether or not this is really just a two-horse race.

A potential wild card is the Nick Zito-trained #4 CASUAL TRICK (8-1). He was the favorite over the highly regarded El Padrino and Take Charge Indy in his last race, but was beaten by over 30 lengths. However, his stumbled start and the sloppy track conditions may be legitimate excuses. If you throw out the last race, he looks to fit and might get first run on DISCREET DANCER in the stretch. With DISCREET DANCER and UNION RAGS expected to be at short prices, CASUAL TRICK may be the value play. And if Gulfstream Park gets an afternoon shower muddying the track, #8 CSABA (20-1) has proven to like the slop.

Good Luck!