At this point, no one knows which horse will win the Derby and it doesn’t really matter. What’s important is forming your own opinion about which horses might win the Derby and identifying those that are maturing and peaking at the right time. By following the Derby Preps closely you’ll have insights you can turn into cold hard cash come May 5th.

Follow the Derby preps using the handy dandy schedule on our KY Derby page and check in on our Derby Dozen list (we’ll vote every three weeks) to see if our opinions line up with yours. Putting the time in now may payoff later.

Special thanks to our expert Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz

Ok, ok, enough with my bastardization of the rifleman’s creed. At WirePlayers we’re kicking off our annual Kentucky Derby prep race coverage and here’s a handy schedule of key races. It will be updated as the Derby prep season progresses.

And stay tunned because next week we’ll debut this year’s WirePlayers Derby Dozen – guaranteed to satisfy and mystify.

2012 KY Derby & Triple Crown Prep Race Schedule

• “Handicap the races the night before, then handicap again halfway through the card to account for track biases.”
• “The second mint julep tastes exponentially better than the first.”
• “Don’t be blinded by sexy connections on paper. Horses with class, speed and under-the-radar connections will always offer a tremendous amount of value in the exotics.”
• “When you’re losing, stay the course. Don’t let your confidence in a horse you like later slip because you haven’t cashed a ticket for five races in a row.”
• “Poncho, not umbrella.”
• “If you like a ridiculously priced longshot underneath, throw a few bucks on him for the win. You may not cash the exacta, but a juicy win payout eases the sting.”
• “Women wearing hats at the Kentucky Derby is one of the best traditions in American sports and should be preserved by any means necessary.”
• “This, on the other hand, should never occur.”

• “If you accidentally knock a fellow patron’s drink over, you owe him an identical replacement, regardless of how long the lines are or how poorly you’re doing at the windows. Acceptable replacement time window is 20 minutes.”
• “Jose Espinoza.”
• “People coming to the track for the first time don’t expect winners, they expect explanations.”
• “More often than not, the Clement horse with flashy form running in a stakes race for the first time will disappoint you at very low odds.”
• “Watching any Triple Crown race live will get you out of all other commitments; watching from home will not.”

What did you learn from this year’s Triple Crown? Leave a comment or let me know on Twitter. Also, don’t forget to like WirePlayers on Facebook.

This was a roller coaster Kentucky Derby prep season capped by last Saturday’s impressive win by ANIMAL KINGDOM. I was on hand for all the festivities with my buddies Dave, Doug, and WirePlayers contributer Derek Brown. Please check out the WirePlayers Facebook page and Flickr photostream to see our pics. The Flickr pics are from my cell phone (which died after the 3rd race on Saturday) but Derek took some nice shots.

Next stop for ANIMAL KINGDOM is bucolic north Baltimore (aka “Charm City”) for the Preakness. I’ll be back on the premises with Dave and Doug drinking Black Eyed Susans and crafting winning Pick 4 tickets. If you find yourself at Pimlico next weekend, look us up.

Lastly, after a two-week hiatus due to Derby chaos, the Solar System of Handicapping returns. Our community race is Belmont Park’s G2 Peter Pan Stakes. Watch closely as a few of these horses will likely race in the Belmont Stakes four weeks from now. Good luck everyone!

Race 8 – Eight Belles Stakes (G3) – 7F

I’m starting off the sequence by going three-deep with #1 ARIENZA (4/1), #4 HOLIDAY FLARE (9/2) and #8 VICTORIA’S WILDCAT (12-1).  ARIENZA comes off a second place finish to Oaks morning line favorite Joyful Victory and will benefit from the cutback to a one-turn race. HOLIDAY FLARE makes her first start outside of state bred company in Florida and will be forwardly placed.  The only concern is that it’s her first start beyond six furlongs.  I doubt we’ll see anywhere near 12-1 on VICTORIA’S WILDCAT come post time, but she could be the main beneficiary of a speed duel up front.  I also like that she has a win over the CD track last November.

Race 9 – Alysheba Stakes (G3) – 8 1/2F

It’s a Grade 3 race, but loaded with Grade 1 competition.  #11 REGAL RANSOM (10-1) ran too good to lose last out and Godolphin’s horses are typically very dangerous second off the layoff.  The knocks on him, though, are that he’s never hit the board in two races at CD and he’s the kind of horse who runs much better when left alone on the lead. #3 ICABAD CRANE (12-1) is really interesting in this spot.  He doesn’t win a lot, but always gives a game effort.  The fact that he’s never been off the board in nine starts at the distance makes him a must-use on my ticket.  There’s no worse feeling than loving a horse one week, and then jumping off when he runs a clunker.  So I’m going to hope that #1 WISE DAN needed his last, and he moves up if the track comes up wet, having won over the CD slop, albeit at a mile.  I’m using the same angle with #5 GIANT OAK (3-1).  He ran too well in the Clark H. and the Donn H. for me to toss him off his third-place finish to #6 MISSION IMPAZIBLE (7/2) at the Fair Grounds.

Race 10 – American Turf Stakes (G2) – 8 1/2F (Turf)

#2 GREAT MILLS (9/2) ran absolutely too good to lose last time out in the Transylvania S. at Keeneland, where he was nipped by #13 AIR SUPPORT (9/2) at the wire. With both coming off career beyer tops and only four weeks rest, a bounce seems like a very real possibility.  Of the two, I prefer GREAT MILLS, because in previous races he’s shown he doesn’t need the lead to win and the #13 post for AIR SUPPORT is going to require a lot of racing luck. My top pick would be #3 BANNED, who wheels back 19 days after a third place finish against softer company at Keeneland.  That was his first start in five months, which looks to be purely a prep for this spot.  He runs well over any turf condition and I see him getting first jump on the leaders turning into the stretch. My longshot pick is #7 MAN OF STRIFE, who has earned more than $121,000 more than his $8,000 purchase price. This is a massive step up in class, but he has won four out of six, one of which was over the Fair Grounds turf at Friday’s distance. Trainer Brian House does very well with a limited number of horses, winner at a 35 percent clip from only 55 entries this year.  For the record, #10 SWAGGER JACK (50-1) is going to run a huge race at ridiculous odds one of these days. He’s not on my ticket, but he always makes me nervous.

Race 11 – Kentucky Oaks (G1) – 9 Furlongs

#1 JOYFUL VICTORY has been an absolute monster in her last two races at Oaklawn Park, and is a deserving favorite. I’ll use her, but I’m not 100 percent sold that she’s an absolute lock.  I’m expecting a big race from #6 ZAZU (4-1). She’s two necks away from being undefeated since moving to dirt and has the best closing speed of any of the horses in the field.  Joel Rosario is quite possibly the best rider in the country right now and I see ZAZU blowing past the tiring frontrunners in the stretch. For the same reasons I mentioned about not tossing WISE DAN and GIANT OAK earlier, I have to include #4 KATHMANBLU.  Her two races routing on dirt were far and away her best and I’m willing to forgive her lackluster effort in her first race over the polytrack at Keeneland.  I’ll also add Fair Grounds Oaks winner #9 DAISY DEVINE, who is a neck away from being undefeated on dirt

My $.50 Pick 4 Ticket

Leg 1: 1,4,8

Leg 2: 1,3,5,6,11

Leg 3: 2,3,7

Leg 4: 1,4,6,9

Total cost: $90

Best of luck to everyone playing along.  I’ll be out at Churchill for the weekend, and will be posting picks, photos and random observations from around Louisville on Twitter.

It looks like DIALED IN will take most of the money as arguably the most consistent performer of the bunch and he gets the final #1 ranking in our poll (which we understand is highly valued among all the Derby connections). However, we’re a deeply divided group as 7 of the 20 starters received 1st place votes. And then there’s DECISIVE MOMENT who’s 50-1 on the morning line, but sneaks into the Dozen by virtue of TOBY’s withdraw. Can he sneak into the winner’s circle. Well, I know at least one guy who thinks so!

Special thanks to our tireless Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Brian from Railrunner
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
Jessica Paquette
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Dylan Jarmulowicz

(Dialed In, highlighted in white, racing much closer to the lead than he likes.)

This race served as a useful tighter for the Florida Derby and what was most encouraging was that, despite a slight hiccup at the top of the stretch (he struggles to change leads and attempts to slighty bare towards the inner rail yet again) he continues to mature. He has a valid excuse for not winning, the pace (24:4, 49:2, 1:13.8) was much too slow for him to close into. He wants to be thirteen lengths out a quarter mile into the race, not three. Let’s not forget Street Sense in 2007 – he had no trouble with nineteen other competitors behind a fast pace at the Derby, but struggled in short fielded paceless races like the Travers and Kentucky Cup Classic. Factor in that this was all along just a prep and this race becomes a complete toss.

Equibase chart

(Losing the gallop out) 

KY Derby Graded Stakes Earnings (25 Apr 2011)

KY Derby Graded Stakes Earnings (17 Apr 2011)

Given all the uncertainty, our panel exercised some leniency and only dropped UNCLE MO one spot. A handful of voters even kept him as their #1 pick. UNCLE MO’s score may be the result of having no clear cut Derby favorite as six horses in our top twelve received #1 votes; and someone (I won’t name who), gave DECISIVE MOMENT a #1 vote which account for his entire point total.

With the Derby only four weeks away, looks like we’re in store for a wild ride.

Special thanks to our tireless Derby Dozen panel:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Brian from Railrunner
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
Jessica Paquette
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Dylan Jarmulowicz

THE FACTOR’s performance impressed enough of our Derby Dozen panel voters to rocket him to #4 on the list garnering 3 first place votes. Others were not as impressed. I didn’t toss him a single vote and Chris Hernandez, it seems, put THE FACTOR on his list just so he could rag on him.

Before betting the mortgage payment on May 7th, keep in mind he was lone speed on a speed favoring track. He looks like this year’s CONVEYANCE and I figure he’ll be done at the quarter pole in Louisville. But I’ve been wrong before, many times in fact, so we’ll just have to stay tuned to see what happens.

Until then, enjoy “the Dozen” . . .

Thanks to our Derby Dozen panel who made this possible:
Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Brian from Railrunner
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
Jessica Paquette
The Turk
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Dylan Jarmulowicz